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New from @bellingcat: We figured out that whole Navalny poisoning thing. An FSB team trailed him since 2017 -- including to Tomsk in 2020 -- that included Novichok, chemical weapons experts.
We worked with investigative partners @CNN (https://t.co/OqHbuglzDQ), @the_ins_ru (https://t.co/LIknsacbkH), and @derspiegel on this investigation. More to come!
Let's meet the crew!
Stanislav Makshakov, who coordinated the whole operation. He reports to General Kirill Vasilyev, director of the FSB Criminalistics Institute.
Oleg Tayakin, cover name Oleg “Tarasov”. A senior member of the FSB squad, typically coordinating other officers and operating primarily out of the central office at Akademika Vargi 2a. He worked as a surgeon before joining the FSB’s Criminalistics Institute.
Alexey Alexandrov, cover name “Alexey Frolov”. Graduated medical school in Moscow in 2006, worked as an emergency & military doctor doctor before joining the FSB in 2013. He was present at both 2020 poisonings, one suspected by Navalny + wife in Kaliningrad and the other in Tomsk
We worked with investigative partners @CNN (https://t.co/OqHbuglzDQ), @the_ins_ru (https://t.co/LIknsacbkH), and @derspiegel on this investigation. More to come!
Let's meet the crew!
Stanislav Makshakov, who coordinated the whole operation. He reports to General Kirill Vasilyev, director of the FSB Criminalistics Institute.
Oleg Tayakin, cover name Oleg “Tarasov”. A senior member of the FSB squad, typically coordinating other officers and operating primarily out of the central office at Akademika Vargi 2a. He worked as a surgeon before joining the FSB’s Criminalistics Institute.
Alexey Alexandrov, cover name “Alexey Frolov”. Graduated medical school in Moscow in 2006, worked as an emergency & military doctor doctor before joining the FSB in 2013. He was present at both 2020 poisonings, one suspected by Navalny + wife in Kaliningrad and the other in Tomsk
Reading recommendation: Rand Corp, "The Russian Firehose of Falsehoods Propaganda Model," includes advice on how to counter a rapid and continuous stream of lies.
https://t.co/1Jg5CvgrJC
1/
The liar has a “shameless willingness” to tell outrageous lies that lots of people know are lies.
The liar doesn’t care about consistency.
He doesn’t care if it’s obvious he’s lying.
https://t.co/C08paJsKTT
In fact, that's the whole point.
Putin perfected the method.
2/
It seems to come naturally to Trump.
@TimothyDSnyder tells how reporters were often so astonished by Putin's outrageous lies, that they focused on the lies instead of Putin's latest atrocities.
The lies became the news.
The actual news gets pushed off the stage.
3/
The goal is the “disruption of truthful reporting and messaging.”
https://t.co/C08paJsKTT
That's why Trump really wants an actual trial, and why he was so annoyed with the Supreme Court (and other courts) refusing to hear the case.
He wants a stage for the lies.
4/
From the Rand study: The Firehose of Falsehood technique “entertains, confuses and overwhelms the audience.”
I think the "entertainment" part applies to the GOP leadership who know Trump is lying but cheer the lies because they are so destructive.
5/
https://t.co/1Jg5CvgrJC
1/
The liar has a “shameless willingness” to tell outrageous lies that lots of people know are lies.
The liar doesn’t care about consistency.
He doesn’t care if it’s obvious he’s lying.
https://t.co/C08paJsKTT
In fact, that's the whole point.
Putin perfected the method.
2/
It seems to come naturally to Trump.
@TimothyDSnyder tells how reporters were often so astonished by Putin's outrageous lies, that they focused on the lies instead of Putin's latest atrocities.
The lies became the news.
The actual news gets pushed off the stage.
3/
The goal is the “disruption of truthful reporting and messaging.”
https://t.co/C08paJsKTT
That's why Trump really wants an actual trial, and why he was so annoyed with the Supreme Court (and other courts) refusing to hear the case.
He wants a stage for the lies.
4/
From the Rand study: The Firehose of Falsehood technique “entertains, confuses and overwhelms the audience.”
I think the "entertainment" part applies to the GOP leadership who know Trump is lying but cheer the lies because they are so destructive.
5/
Is it true that democracies don't go to war with each other?
Sort of. But I wouldn't base public policy on the finding.
Why? Let's turn to the data.
[THREAD]
The idea of a "Democratic Peace" is a widely held view that's been around for a long time.
By 1988, there already existed enough studies on the topic for Jack Levy to famously label Democratic Peace "an empirical law"
The earliest empirical work on the topic was the 1964 report by Dean Babst published in the "Wisconsin Sociologist"
Using the war participation data from Quincy Wright's "A Study of War", Babst produced the following two tables
The tables show that democracies were NOT on both sides (of course, Finland is awkward given that it fought WITH Nazi Germany against the Soviet Union).
Babst expanded his study beyond the World Wars in a 1972 paper in Industrial Research. He confirmed his finding.
Sort of. But I wouldn't base public policy on the finding.
Why? Let's turn to the data.
[THREAD]
Democracies do not go to war with each other. There are a lot of empirical data to support that theory. I summarize that literature here. https://t.co/SQLk9J9rZ8 https://t.co/tLlSyisEIU
— Michael McFaul (@McFaul) December 12, 2020
The idea of a "Democratic Peace" is a widely held view that's been around for a long time.
By 1988, there already existed enough studies on the topic for Jack Levy to famously label Democratic Peace "an empirical law"
The earliest empirical work on the topic was the 1964 report by Dean Babst published in the "Wisconsin Sociologist"
Using the war participation data from Quincy Wright's "A Study of War", Babst produced the following two tables
The tables show that democracies were NOT on both sides (of course, Finland is awkward given that it fought WITH Nazi Germany against the Soviet Union).
Babst expanded his study beyond the World Wars in a 1972 paper in Industrial Research. He confirmed his finding.
A year ago, the idea that you could close every restaurant, café and pub in the capital without a Parliamentary vote or even a debate would have been unthinkable. Today we have allowed government by executive decree and it now seems normal. Covid lawmaking has corroded democracy
To explain: since March, the government has used the Public Health (Control of Diseases) Act 1984 to pass lockdown laws - over 60 (I have listed them here https://t.co/5Z1p3gVjbX).
The lockdown laws have imposed stringent restrictions on movement, freedom of association, family life, religion etc. But each and every lockdown law passed has used the super emergency procedure which allows the government to pass them without a parliamentary vote for 28 days
The government did this for months before MPs revolted at which point it promised to put any major changes before parliament first. It has done this since the three tiers in mid-October.
BUT...
(1) The govt is still only giving parliament about 12 hours to consider laws and the vote is a simple yes or no
(2) Changes to tiered areas are not considered major changes so these don't go to a vote until 28 days later by which time it has usually changed.
To explain: since March, the government has used the Public Health (Control of Diseases) Act 1984 to pass lockdown laws - over 60 (I have listed them here https://t.co/5Z1p3gVjbX).
The lockdown laws have imposed stringent restrictions on movement, freedom of association, family life, religion etc. But each and every lockdown law passed has used the super emergency procedure which allows the government to pass them without a parliamentary vote for 28 days
The government did this for months before MPs revolted at which point it promised to put any major changes before parliament first. It has done this since the three tiers in mid-October.
BUT...
(1) The govt is still only giving parliament about 12 hours to consider laws and the vote is a simple yes or no
(2) Changes to tiered areas are not considered major changes so these don't go to a vote until 28 days later by which time it has usually changed.
***THREAD***
I’ve been on the phone with colleagues about the hack all morning. None of us can figure out why #CISA chose this particular response to the breach. Couple of things struck us as curious.
The agencies targeted are not responding how you might expect...
I’ve been on the phone with colleagues about the hack all morning. None of us can figure out why #CISA chose this particular response to the breach. Couple of things struck us as curious.
The agencies targeted are not responding how you might expect...
JUST RELEASED: Emergency Directive 21-01 calls on all federal civilian agencies to review their networks for indicators of compromise and disconnect or power down SolarWinds Orion products immediately. Read more: https://t.co/VFZ81W2Ow7
— Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (@CISAgov) December 14, 2020