and his team listen to the community's feedback and offer, within a window of three years, two fantastic, insightful and impactful forecasting competitions, the M4 and M5. I am tired with all the "sceptics" that try to dismiss the competitions' results.
1/8

First, the ongoing discussion on error measures. It seems that everyone in the forecasting community has devised their own measures, and if someone is using another one then s/he is doomed. The real question is: does the chosen error measure fit the purpose of the exercise?
2/8
Second, the disbelief on the results especially from people that did not participate in the competitions. I have said that before, but skin in the game is important in forecasting (if you want to call your self a forecaster).
3/8
The fact that a method won a competition does not mean that it will win all future competitions. But, there are important lessons to be learnt. In the case of M3 and Theta: the value of information decomposition. In the case of M4 & M5: the value of cross-learning.
4/8
Such insights should be taken into account when designing future methods and algorithms. Since 2000, I have seen many new implementations of the Theta method that have improved on the original proposition. The same will surely be the case with the top methods of M4 & M5.
5/8
Third, the inability to understand the inherent limitations of designing a forecasting competition. No forecasting competition is going to be perfect. The same way that no RCT experiment will fully reflect reality. But, this does not mean that each competition does not add...
6/8
...to our understanding of forecasting. If the father of forecasting, @spyrosmakrid himself, has changed his view towards "complex" methods and saw the value of ML methods, this should be a paradigm for everyone else in the community.
7/8
I am not affiliated with the Makridakis Open Forecasting Centre, but its motto says it all: "Learn. Forecast. Compete. Disseminate. Excel." @spyrosmakrid
I invite others to do the same.
8/8
@threadreaderapp
#unroll

More from Society

So, as the #MegaMillions jackpot reaches a record $1.6B and #Powerball reaches $620M, here's my advice about how to spend the money in a way that will truly set you, your children and their kids up for life.

Ready?

Create a private foundation and give it all away. 1/

Let's stipulate first that lottery winners often have a hard time. Being publicly identified makes you a target for "friends" and "family" who want your money, as well as for non-family grifters and con men. 2/

The stress can be damaging, even deadly, and Uncle Sam takes his huge cut. Plus, having a big pool of disposable income can be irresistible to people not accustomed to managing wealth.
https://t.co/fiHsuJyZwz 3/

Meanwhile, the private foundation is as close as we come to Downton Abbey and the landed aristocracy in this country. It's a largely untaxed pot of money that grows significantly over time, and those who control them tend to entrench their own privileges and those of their kin. 4

Here's how it works for a big lotto winner:

1. Win the prize.
2. Announce that you are donating it to the YOUR NAME HERE Family Foundation.
3. Receive massive plaudits in the press. You will be a folk hero for this decision.
4. Appoint only trusted friends/family to board. 5/
Imagine if Christians actually had to live according to their Bibles.


Imagine if Christians actually sacrificed themselves for the good of those they considered their enemies, with no thought of any recompense or reward, but only to honor the essential humanity of all people.

Imagine if Christians sold all their possessions and gave it to the poor.

Imagine if they relentlessly stood up for the widow, the orphan, and the foreigner.

Imagine if they worshipped a God whose response to political power was to reject it.

Or cancelled all debt owed them?

Imagine if the primary orientation of Christians was what others needed, not what they deserved.

Imagine Christians with no interest in protecting what they had.

Imagine Christians who made room for other beliefs, and honored the truths they found there.

Imagine Christians who saved their forgiveness and mercy for others, rather than saving it for themselves.

Whose empathy went first to the abused, not the abuser.

Who didn't see tax as theft; who didn't need to control distribution of public good to the deserving.

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