Is US going to default on its debt?

This 🧵 will surely help you understand. Do ‘re-tweet’ & help us educated investors (1/13)

How does a country run?

Assume a country to be like a company, which has income & expenses. Income source can be tax collections & expense can be government employee salaries, defence sending’s, social security schemes etc. (2/13)
Generally, most economies are running a deficit; their income is less than expense. So if your income is 100 and expense is 105, where do you get the 5? You borrow!

Similarly US has been borrowing & the total debt today roughly stands at a whooping $28.5T. (3/13)
Deficit in the last 2 years has gone up significantly because of COVID + the government wants to spend more; a $3.5T spending package is what they are trying to get an approval for + older debt is coming up for maturity (4/13)
Okay, so I am saying they will raise more debt for the deficit of COVID, the new package & paying older debt off?

Ideally a yes but they are not allowed to borrow more! (5/13)
Why can’t they take more debt?

During the 1st world war, US understood if they keep spending money on the war, the debt will be a big liability 4 the future generation & hence they introduced a ceiling on the maximum debt US could take. In 1917, this was capped at $1 Billion
What happened when the $1B debt was reached?

Political parties would pass a legislation to increase the debt limits. From $1B in 1917, the debt ceiling has been moved up multiple times to the current $28.5T (https://t.co/XaLWSSGxN5), which is about to get reached now (7/13)
So what happens now?

Political parties (Like India has BJP & congress, US has Democrats & Republicans) need to agree on either suspending the debt ceiling all together or increasing the limit of borrowing by passing legislation like they have been doing in the past (8/13)
So that’s easy right?

May be, but republicans r nt in favor of suspension or ⬆️ in the debt ceiling. But this is common, has happened multiple times in the past. Till the legislation is passed, the government shuts down for few days & is back in action as soon as it is passed
What happens if Republicans don’t agree?

A suspension or rise in the debt ceiling can be passed through a process known as budget reconciliation, due to Democrat's majority in the Senate. But some conservative democrats may not support ⬆️in spending so this may face challenges
What is the impact if at all nothing works?
Doomsday! US can't borrow more & can default eventually!

-US will not be able to pay salaries to government employees, will not be able to release social security payments, will not be able to pay other liabilities (11/13)
- US interest rates will go up (you want more returns if the risk increases)
- $ will crash
- Both of the above to have a massive impact on world trade & markets as still 84% of the world trade happens in $ & other countries have huge investments in US treasuries (12/13)
Consensus view - We might see some delay but US will not let its debt default! (13/13)
This is my 43rd thread, 'do re-tweet'

Have earlier written on,
-Sector Analysis - Banking, Paints, Logistic, REIT, InvIT, Sugar, Steel
- Macro
- Debt Markets
- Equity
- Gold
- Personal Finance etc.

You can find them all in the link below https://t.co/UrRt87xaU7 (END)

More from Kirtan A Shah

Personal Finance 101 – My learning’s about investing

This topic is for everyone, whether you manage your money yourself or through your advisor, it will go a long way in managing your finances.

Do re-tweet & help us educate retail investors (1/n)


Subscribe to our YouTube for some interesting educational content around Personal Finance -
https://t.co/jvgNEDWiAZ

And you can also join our Telegram channel for regular updates – https://t.co/Ekz6I8pDGt (2/n)

(1) Lets start with Life Insurance

Term Insurance is the best way to take an insurance cover & probably the only product to buy in life insurance. Make sure u disclose all the necessary information before taking the insurance. Smoking, Alcohol, any pre-existing deceases etc(3/n)

Have atleast 10-15 times of your annual income as insurance cover

But there are variants of term insurance that you should avoid (4/n)

(A) Term plan with return of premium

For a non-smoker born on the 1st Jan 1985 & policy term 39 years (till age 75), the regular premium for a 1-cr term insurance is 22,157 (inclusive of GST) but with returns of premium is 42670 (inclusive of GST). An increase of 20,513 (5/n)

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1

From today, we will memorize the names of 27 Nakshatras in Vedic Jyotish to never forget in life.

I will write 4 names. Repeat them in SAME sequence twice in morning, noon, evening. Each day, revise new names + recall all previously learnt names.

Pls RT if you are in.

2

Today's Nakshatras are:-

1. Ashwini - अश्विनी

2. Bharani - भरणी

3. Krittika - कृत्तिका

4. Rohini - रोहिणी

Ashwini - अश्विनी is the FIRST Nakshatra.

Repeat these names TWICE now, tomorrow morning, noon and evening. Like this tweet if you have revised 8 times as told.

3

Today's Nakshatras are:-

5. Mrigashira - मृगशिरा

6. Ardra - आर्द्रा

7. Punarvasu - पुनर्वसु

8. Pushya - पुष्य

First recall previously learnt Nakshatras twice. Then recite these TWICE now, tomorrow morning, noon & evening in SAME order. Like this tweet only after doing so.

4

Today's Nakshatras are:-

9. Ashlesha - अश्लेषा

10. Magha - मघा

11. Purvaphalguni - पूर्वाफाल्गुनी

12. Uttaraphalguni - उत्तराफाल्गुनी

Purva means that comes before (P se Purva, P se pehele), and Uttara comes later.

Read next tweet too.

5

Purva, Uttara prefixes come in other Nakshatras too. Purva= pehele wala. Remember.

First recall previously learnt 8 Nakshatras twice. Then recite those in Tweet #4 TWICE now, tomorrow morning, noon & evening in SAME order. Like this tweet if you have read Tweets #4 & 5, both.
Margatha Natarajar murthi - Uthirakosamangai temple near Ramanathapuram,TN
#ArudraDarisanam
Unique Natarajar made of emerlad is abt 6 feet tall.
It is always covered with sandal paste.Only on Thriuvadhirai Star in month Margazhi-Nataraja can be worshipped without sandal paste.


After removing the sandal paste,day long rituals & various abhishekam will be
https://t.co/e1Ye8DrNWb day Maragatha Nataraja sannandhi will be closed after anointing the murthi with fresh sandal paste.Maragatha Natarajar is covered with sandal paste throughout the year


as Emerald has scientific property of its molecules getting disturbed when exposed to light/water/sound.This is an ancient Shiva temple considered to be 3000 years old -believed to be where Bhagwan Shiva gave Veda gyaana to Parvati Devi.This temple has some stunning sculptures.