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THREAD – 1/20: Unfortunate that @ForeignAffairs chose to run a dubious piece full of speculation & uncorroborated claims. At its core, the piece & its authors (@Fromagehomme & Yohannes) are misguided in their assumption that @AbiyAhmedAli is experiencing a crisis of legitimacy...
2/20: The reality is that Ethiopians have rallied around the flag as they always do. Ethiopians have rallied around the flag b/c #Ethiopia was brazenly attacked by belligerents attempting to return to power by overthrowing the constitutional order @ForeignAffairs @Fromagehomme
3/20: In addition to the misguided & out of touch headline, the piece makes 4 baseless claims regarding: 1) myth of an insurgency/insurrection; 2) false equivalence b/w TPLF & Tigrayans; 3) ongoing reform agenda; and 4) prospects of democratization in #Ethiopia. @ForeignAffairs
4/20: First, the piece is rife with unsubstantiated speculation regarding a “sustained, bloody insurgency & insurrection” in #Tigray. Although analysts propagated this baseless & highly inflammatory narrative from the onset of the conflict, this prognosis has not materialized...
5/20: In fact, rather than "insurgency & insurrection", the evidence suggests 3 developments: 1) the federal govt of #Ethiopia conducted a highly contained, efficient & effective operation against the treasonous TPLF leadership that committed an act of war...
@Fromagehomme and Yohannes Woldemariam argue that the war in Tigray could exacerbate Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed\u2019s crisis of legitimacy.https://t.co/SByxw8yS7S
— Foreign Affairs (@ForeignAffairs) January 1, 2021
2/20: The reality is that Ethiopians have rallied around the flag as they always do. Ethiopians have rallied around the flag b/c #Ethiopia was brazenly attacked by belligerents attempting to return to power by overthrowing the constitutional order @ForeignAffairs @Fromagehomme
3/20: In addition to the misguided & out of touch headline, the piece makes 4 baseless claims regarding: 1) myth of an insurgency/insurrection; 2) false equivalence b/w TPLF & Tigrayans; 3) ongoing reform agenda; and 4) prospects of democratization in #Ethiopia. @ForeignAffairs
4/20: First, the piece is rife with unsubstantiated speculation regarding a “sustained, bloody insurgency & insurrection” in #Tigray. Although analysts propagated this baseless & highly inflammatory narrative from the onset of the conflict, this prognosis has not materialized...
5/20: In fact, rather than "insurgency & insurrection", the evidence suggests 3 developments: 1) the federal govt of #Ethiopia conducted a highly contained, efficient & effective operation against the treasonous TPLF leadership that committed an act of war...
THREAD
I received numerous questions regarding my yesterday’s post. Why regional transmission projects are always given priority over the development of indigenous generation, knowing that Afghanistan will remain dependent on imported power? What went wrong?
I have already described the disadvantages of relying on imported electricity in this thread👇.
The legitimate question we all have is, why did the Afghan government and international donors opt for bringing electricity from the neighboring countries?
The answer is not easy and includes a mix of bureaucratic, social, economic and political considerations. Since 2002, energy sector planning efforts have been undertaken by a number of international development partners.
This has allowed for significant levels of investment and expertise to be placed in the service of Afghanistan's power sector. At the same time, the role of the Afghan government has often been marginal, as a plethora of donors have pursued their own agendas and projects.
As a result, this has led to a lack of coordination, off-budget project financing, insufficient planning and prioritization of projects, and a process that has lent itself to wasteful spending and unmet goals.
I received numerous questions regarding my yesterday’s post. Why regional transmission projects are always given priority over the development of indigenous generation, knowing that Afghanistan will remain dependent on imported power? What went wrong?
I have already described the disadvantages of relying on imported electricity in this thread👇.
The legitimate question we all have is, why did the Afghan government and international donors opt for bringing electricity from the neighboring countries?
THREAD
— Mohsin Amin (@MohsinAmin_) July 27, 2020
The electricity-exporting countries Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Iran mostly sell their surplus electricity to Afghanistan. When they no longer have a surplus, they stop supplying.
The answer is not easy and includes a mix of bureaucratic, social, economic and political considerations. Since 2002, energy sector planning efforts have been undertaken by a number of international development partners.
This has allowed for significant levels of investment and expertise to be placed in the service of Afghanistan's power sector. At the same time, the role of the Afghan government has often been marginal, as a plethora of donors have pursued their own agendas and projects.
As a result, this has led to a lack of coordination, off-budget project financing, insufficient planning and prioritization of projects, and a process that has lent itself to wasteful spending and unmet goals.
This is some audacious spin. What actually happened: Pompeo endorsed the results of a rigged election in DRC after a private security company working for a Congolese autocrat back channelled with Giuliani and other Trump allies. Our investigation: https://t.co/WjO7hPmfZv
In negotiations, the US maintained it wouldn't allow then-DRC president Joseph Kabila to run for a third term. So the private security company, Mer, helped Kabila craft a new plan to control his country: a secret power-sharing deal with another candidate. https://t.co/WjO7hPmfZv
The deal might've stayed secret—except somebody leaked the real vote count, showing Kabila's candidate, Tshisekedi, lost in a landslide to Martin Fayulu, who vowed to end corrupt mining deals. @FinancialTimes did great work confirming the data was legit:
With the real results public, the US was left with the question of whether to endorse the official result or denounce it, as the African Union and the European Union did. US officials in charge of DRC foreign policy debated. Here's how it played out:
US has a long history of undermining democracy in Congo. CIA backed the assassination of Patrice Lumumba, DRC's 1st prime minister. US presidents supported Mobutu's 34-yr dictatorship. Kabila won US support the way other modern-day autocrats have: with the facade of democracy.
In negotiations, the US maintained it wouldn't allow then-DRC president Joseph Kabila to run for a third term. So the private security company, Mer, helped Kabila craft a new plan to control his country: a secret power-sharing deal with another candidate. https://t.co/WjO7hPmfZv
The deal might've stayed secret—except somebody leaked the real vote count, showing Kabila's candidate, Tshisekedi, lost in a landslide to Martin Fayulu, who vowed to end corrupt mining deals. @FinancialTimes did great work confirming the data was legit:
With the real results public, the US was left with the question of whether to endorse the official result or denounce it, as the African Union and the European Union did. US officials in charge of DRC foreign policy debated. Here's how it played out:
US has a long history of undermining democracy in Congo. CIA backed the assassination of Patrice Lumumba, DRC's 1st prime minister. US presidents supported Mobutu's 34-yr dictatorship. Kabila won US support the way other modern-day autocrats have: with the facade of democracy.
From 🇪🇺: One of the three German politicians vying to lead Merkel’s CDU party became the first major European voice to link today’s mass arrests in Hong Kong with the EU-China investment deal.
A prominent critic of the deal in the European Parliament asked: “Democracy in HK is dying before our eyes, and the priority of our dear European leaders is to sell us their investment agreement with Beijing. How can we be so out of time?”
Interesting take
EU Commission spokesman @MamerEric defended the bloc’s decision to reach an investment deal, and added the need to engage China on issues like climate change, when asked about the impact of the human rights situation in Hong Kong on EU-China relations.
“The coordinated arrest of over 50 pro-democracy activists on accusations of subversion under the National Security Law sends a signal that political pluralism is no longer tolerated in Hong Kong. The EU calls for the immediate release of those arrested,” @ExtSpoxEU says.
Mehr als 50 Oppositionelle wurden in #HongKong festgenommen. Grundlage ist das neue #Sicherheitsgesetz, das #China als Waffe gegen die Demokratie dient. Wenn \U0001f1ea\U0001f1fa ein Abkommen mit \U0001f1e8\U0001f1f3 schlie\xdft, dann darf es dessen Methoden, inklusive Vertragsbruch & Unterdr\xfcckung, nicht ignorieren. https://t.co/VEXeVm1w2Z
— Norbert R\xf6ttgen (@n_roettgen) January 6, 2021
A prominent critic of the deal in the European Parliament asked: “Democracy in HK is dying before our eyes, and the priority of our dear European leaders is to sell us their investment agreement with Beijing. How can we be so out of time?”
Des dizaines d\u2019opposants arr\xeat\xe9s \xe0 Hong Kong. La d\xe9mocratie HK meurt sous nos yeux. Et la priorit\xe9 de nos chers dirigeants europ\xe9ens est de nous vendre leur accord d\u2019investissement avec P\xe9kin... Comment peut-on \xeatre \xe0 ce point \xe0 contre-temps? https://t.co/zy1xaqIYdB
— Raphael Glucksmann (@rglucks1) January 6, 2021
Interesting take
2) Also shows that BJ doesn't have a clue about how EU works or simply doesn't care if the CAI-deal really goes through. What BJ is doing in HK will make it even less probable that the EU parliament will ratify CAI.
— Dana Heide (@Dana_Heide) January 6, 2021
EU Commission spokesman @MamerEric defended the bloc’s decision to reach an investment deal, and added the need to engage China on issues like climate change, when asked about the impact of the human rights situation in Hong Kong on EU-China relations.
“The coordinated arrest of over 50 pro-democracy activists on accusations of subversion under the National Security Law sends a signal that political pluralism is no longer tolerated in Hong Kong. The EU calls for the immediate release of those arrested,” @ExtSpoxEU says.
Thread: In the early hours of yesterday morning (22nd Jan. 2021) #Syria|n State Media confirmed that SAA Air Defense was engaging "hostile targets" over Syria. The early reports indicated multiple explosions across Damascus, Hama, Tartus and Safita region.
This appeared at the time to be a rather large, wide scale airstrike. After the event was over questions begun to be raised by a lot of observers focusing on Syria and the ME about the event. Latter that day news started to circulate confirming that Unknown Missile pieces had...
been found in #Jordan and near Al-Qadmus, #Syria, a wide area, later in the day, S-200 pieces near Damascus were found and also a Pantsir-S1 booster near Masyaf. It was weird, and I know I wasn't the only one that was thinking it was odd for all this AD to be "all over the place"
nothing was confirmed. As always I started several discussions with people I trust/sources who have some knowledge in certain things I don't have first hand, after a lot of back/forth and with the horrible news that civilians were killed in this strike (I'll come back to this)
in Kazo, Hama this would be the main AOI, at least we could confirm something had happened. Images begun to circulate regards to the remains of some munition, noted as a GBU39 SDB (Small Diameter Bomb). The #IDF has an array of munition it can use.
This appeared at the time to be a rather large, wide scale airstrike. After the event was over questions begun to be raised by a lot of observers focusing on Syria and the ME about the event. Latter that day news started to circulate confirming that Unknown Missile pieces had...
been found in #Jordan and near Al-Qadmus, #Syria, a wide area, later in the day, S-200 pieces near Damascus were found and also a Pantsir-S1 booster near Masyaf. It was weird, and I know I wasn't the only one that was thinking it was odd for all this AD to be "all over the place"
nothing was confirmed. As always I started several discussions with people I trust/sources who have some knowledge in certain things I don't have first hand, after a lot of back/forth and with the horrible news that civilians were killed in this strike (I'll come back to this)
in Kazo, Hama this would be the main AOI, at least we could confirm something had happened. Images begun to circulate regards to the remains of some munition, noted as a GBU39 SDB (Small Diameter Bomb). The #IDF has an array of munition it can use.
A US-made GBU-39 SDB fired by the Israeli Air Force was apparently what killed an entire family in Hama this morning. Photo on the left from an older Israeli strike on Syria. pic.twitter.com/B1UD3BgEKY
— Within Syria (@WithinSyriaBlog) January 22, 2021
In talking about 20th-Century Irish history, we should probably avoid sharp distinctions between Church, State, and Society, as though these were discrete entities, rather than things so organically interwoven that they were more or less expressions of the one thing.
The Republican movement piggybacked on the Church to win mass support for independence, say, while both Cosgrave and de Valera deliberately courted Catholic votes; in the privacy of their polling booths, Irish voters, overwhelmingly voted for socially conservative parties. /2
The Oireachtas and county councils etc were elected and staffed by ordinary Irish people, not people who landed from outer space or England or Rome, with ordinary Irish families and neighbours, and it was these who mandated, owned, funded, supervised, and supplied the homes. /3
As for clergy and religious, the country was full of seminaries and religious houses of formation; Ireland was basically a factory for priests, brothers, and nuns, all of whom were members of ordinary Irish families, and formed by the Irish values of the time. /4
Given how many homes had clergy and religious in the family, could anyone really hold that these were somehow separate? Yes, maybe your aunt was a 'good nun', or your uncle was a 'nice priest', but either way the point stands that they were ordinary Irish people. /5
The Mother and Baby Homes report looks right to say Irish society at large was to blame, and it\u2019s clear from the summary that Ireland\u2019s civic and political institutions, which demanded the homes, were fully clued in on how harsh and even lethal the homes were. But... 1/3
— Greg Daly (@GregDalyIC) January 13, 2021
The Republican movement piggybacked on the Church to win mass support for independence, say, while both Cosgrave and de Valera deliberately courted Catholic votes; in the privacy of their polling booths, Irish voters, overwhelmingly voted for socially conservative parties. /2
The Oireachtas and county councils etc were elected and staffed by ordinary Irish people, not people who landed from outer space or England or Rome, with ordinary Irish families and neighbours, and it was these who mandated, owned, funded, supervised, and supplied the homes. /3
As for clergy and religious, the country was full of seminaries and religious houses of formation; Ireland was basically a factory for priests, brothers, and nuns, all of whom were members of ordinary Irish families, and formed by the Irish values of the time. /4
Given how many homes had clergy and religious in the family, could anyone really hold that these were somehow separate? Yes, maybe your aunt was a 'good nun', or your uncle was a 'nice priest', but either way the point stands that they were ordinary Irish people. /5
As @laurnorman reports & Iranian officials attest, Iran has notified the IAEA of its intention to start an assembly line at Esfahan to produce uranium metal as part of advanced fuel for the Tehran Research Reactor (TRR).
It’s worth exploring Iran’s experience with u-metal, a key material that can also be used to produce nuclear weapon cores. We know that Tehran has quite a bit of experience thanks to the Nuclear Archive documents, seized by Israel in 2018. 2/
The Nuclear Archive contained info about Iran’s plans to build a pilot uranium metal production facility, called Shahid Mahallati. There, Iran would become adept at u-metal and nuke weapon component fabrication: https://t.co/kAA334GW54 3/
In 2002, Iran was also building a production-scale uranium metal & nuclear weapon components facility, Shahid Boroujerdi, in an underground tunnel complex at Parchin, the military site famous for Iran's early nuclear weapon-related high explosive work: https://t.co/0ffAKmQEAV 4/
In late-2003, under increasing international pressure, Iran halted its crash nuclear weapons program, the Amad Plan, and stopped construction on Shahid Boroujerdi & likely halted work at Shahid Mahallati. Current statuses are unknown because the IAEA has never visited. 5/
It’s worth exploring Iran’s experience with u-metal, a key material that can also be used to produce nuclear weapon cores. We know that Tehran has quite a bit of experience thanks to the Nuclear Archive documents, seized by Israel in 2018. 2/
The Nuclear Archive contained info about Iran’s plans to build a pilot uranium metal production facility, called Shahid Mahallati. There, Iran would become adept at u-metal and nuke weapon component fabrication: https://t.co/kAA334GW54 3/
In 2002, Iran was also building a production-scale uranium metal & nuclear weapon components facility, Shahid Boroujerdi, in an underground tunnel complex at Parchin, the military site famous for Iran's early nuclear weapon-related high explosive work: https://t.co/0ffAKmQEAV 4/
In late-2003, under increasing international pressure, Iran halted its crash nuclear weapons program, the Amad Plan, and stopped construction on Shahid Boroujerdi & likely halted work at Shahid Mahallati. Current statuses are unknown because the IAEA has never visited. 5/
