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THREAD – 1/20: Unfortunate that @ForeignAffairs chose to run a dubious piece full of speculation & uncorroborated claims. At its core, the piece & its authors (@Fromagehomme & Yohannes) are misguided in their assumption that @AbiyAhmedAli is experiencing a crisis of legitimacy...


2/20: The reality is that Ethiopians have rallied around the flag as they always do. Ethiopians have rallied around the flag b/c #Ethiopia was brazenly attacked by belligerents attempting to return to power by overthrowing the constitutional order @ForeignAffairs @Fromagehomme

3/20: In addition to the misguided & out of touch headline, the piece makes 4 baseless claims regarding: 1) myth of an insurgency/insurrection; 2) false equivalence b/w TPLF & Tigrayans; 3) ongoing reform agenda; and 4) prospects of democratization in #Ethiopia. @ForeignAffairs

4/20: First, the piece is rife with unsubstantiated speculation regarding a “sustained, bloody insurgency & insurrection” in #Tigray. Although analysts propagated this baseless & highly inflammatory narrative from the onset of the conflict, this prognosis has not materialized...

5/20: In fact, rather than "insurgency & insurrection", the evidence suggests 3 developments: 1) the federal govt of #Ethiopia conducted a highly contained, efficient & effective operation against the treasonous TPLF leadership that committed an act of war...
Most 🌍 comparisons for C19 go wrong as they don't considering demographics.

For countries I've managed to src detailed death data for, here's total d/1m numbers.

Sure,🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 look similar to 🇧🇷🇵🇪, but just look at the differences <60, 🇵🇪 4x larger.

So what does this mean?

1/9


Basically, fewer >80, means they've had⏫spread, and ⏫younger deaths, but👀equal.

Here ranking⏫2⏬by age are:
▶️20 countries
▶️NY city
▶️The World
That I've 👀at so far.

50% marks the median age, e.g.
🇮🇹 47
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿41
🌍30
🇳🇬18

So expecting similar deaths overall is silly.

2/9


So how have deaths actually played out?

Here are the props. by age to late Dec for places with detailed data.

Looks like NYC, 🇧🇷 & 🇵🇪 have seen far more in the young.

Now these all have younger pops. so is spread the same? Are diff just down to demographics?

3/9


No, many factors, the biggest age, and the likelihood of death in each age band.

🌍serology studies have sampled a similar risk in each 10yr band, with this going up 3 fold with each band.

Here is a plot of what🌍avgs are.

So what else do we need to worry about?

4/9


Factors like:
▶️healthcare: beds nos, better care, etc
▶️comorbidity rates: e.g. obesity, OECD 4x India, but only effects 15%
▶️lifestyle impacts: carehomes VS elderly@home
etc

But, many cancel out.
e.g. 1st🌍better healthcare, but fatter.

What about a lack of treatment?

5/9
In talking about 20th-Century Irish history, we should probably avoid sharp distinctions between Church, State, and Society, as though these were discrete entities, rather than things so organically interwoven that they were more or less expressions of the one thing.


The Republican movement piggybacked on the Church to win mass support for independence, say, while both Cosgrave and de Valera deliberately courted Catholic votes; in the privacy of their polling booths, Irish voters, overwhelmingly voted for socially conservative parties. /2

The Oireachtas and county councils etc were elected and staffed by ordinary Irish people, not people who landed from outer space or England or Rome, with ordinary Irish families and neighbours, and it was these who mandated, owned, funded, supervised, and supplied the homes. /3

As for clergy and religious, the country was full of seminaries and religious houses of formation; Ireland was basically a factory for priests, brothers, and nuns, all of whom were members of ordinary Irish families, and formed by the Irish values of the time. /4

Given how many homes had clergy and religious in the family, could anyone really hold that these were somehow separate? Yes, maybe your aunt was a 'good nun', or your uncle was a 'nice priest', but either way the point stands that they were ordinary Irish people. /5