Categories World

7 days 30 days All time Recent Popular
THREAD – 1/20: Unfortunate that @ForeignAffairs chose to run a dubious piece full of speculation & uncorroborated claims. At its core, the piece & its authors (@Fromagehomme & Yohannes) are misguided in their assumption that @AbiyAhmedAli is experiencing a crisis of legitimacy...


2/20: The reality is that Ethiopians have rallied around the flag as they always do. Ethiopians have rallied around the flag b/c #Ethiopia was brazenly attacked by belligerents attempting to return to power by overthrowing the constitutional order @ForeignAffairs @Fromagehomme

3/20: In addition to the misguided & out of touch headline, the piece makes 4 baseless claims regarding: 1) myth of an insurgency/insurrection; 2) false equivalence b/w TPLF & Tigrayans; 3) ongoing reform agenda; and 4) prospects of democratization in #Ethiopia. @ForeignAffairs

4/20: First, the piece is rife with unsubstantiated speculation regarding a “sustained, bloody insurgency & insurrection” in #Tigray. Although analysts propagated this baseless & highly inflammatory narrative from the onset of the conflict, this prognosis has not materialized...

5/20: In fact, rather than "insurgency & insurrection", the evidence suggests 3 developments: 1) the federal govt of #Ethiopia conducted a highly contained, efficient & effective operation against the treasonous TPLF leadership that committed an act of war...
Most 🌍 comparisons for C19 go wrong as they don't considering demographics.

For countries I've managed to src detailed death data for, here's total d/1m numbers.

Sure,🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 look similar to 🇧🇷🇵🇪, but just look at the differences <60, 🇵🇪 4x larger.

So what does this mean?

1/9


Basically, fewer >80, means they've had⏫spread, and ⏫younger deaths, but👀equal.

Here ranking⏫2⏬by age are:
▶️20 countries
▶️NY city
▶️The World
That I've 👀at so far.

50% marks the median age, e.g.
🇮🇹 47
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿41
🌍30
🇳🇬18

So expecting similar deaths overall is silly.

2/9


So how have deaths actually played out?

Here are the props. by age to late Dec for places with detailed data.

Looks like NYC, 🇧🇷 & 🇵🇪 have seen far more in the young.

Now these all have younger pops. so is spread the same? Are diff just down to demographics?

3/9


No, many factors, the biggest age, and the likelihood of death in each age band.

🌍serology studies have sampled a similar risk in each 10yr band, with this going up 3 fold with each band.

Here is a plot of what🌍avgs are.

So what else do we need to worry about?

4/9


Factors like:
▶️healthcare: beds nos, better care, etc
▶️comorbidity rates: e.g. obesity, OECD 4x India, but only effects 15%
▶️lifestyle impacts: carehomes VS elderly@home
etc

But, many cancel out.
e.g. 1st🌍better healthcare, but fatter.

What about a lack of treatment?

5/9