When a stock is trading around 15-20x sales - ask why would an accident not happen? What could be the valuations damage in that case?

👇Thread.

Published a new essay: The red flags and magic numbers that investors look for in your startup’s metrics – 80 slide deck included!

This was a deck that I created on my (longish) interview process with @a16z. It was a long path, starting with meeting folks at the firm 10 years ago. But the purpose of the deck was to explain how I would use my superpower in an investing context

Here's what I explain in the deck. As investors (whether angel or VC) we're often confronted with an up-and-to-the-right graph. Is it going to go up? Or down?

One solution to forecast these growth curves is the Growth Accounting Framework, where you add up New+Reactivated and subtract churned users. In each time period that gives you the difference in monthly actives.

The problem with this is that it's a lagging metric, not a leading one. We need to go one level deeper and look at the underlying loops that drive these numbers, to understand the quality.

#Thread The legend of Ekadash Mukhi Hanuman ji...

Mahadev himself narrated the story of Ekadash Mukhi Hanuman ji to Maa Parvati. Once a great monster named Kalkarmukh performed the severe penance of Brahma ji.

Pleased with the austerity of the demon, Brahma ji gave him a boon that the person who will have eleven Heads like you and who was born on the day of your birth, only he/she will be able to kill you. No one else will kill you.

After getting a boon from Brahma ji, Kalkarmukh created a ruckus in all three lok. He invaded Swarg and snatched all the rights of the Devtas and became himself the king of Swarg.

All Devtagan came to Shri Rama and asked him for help. Hearing the agony of the Devtagan, Shri Ram called his supreme devotee Hanuman ji and said, "Pawan Putra, Sankatmochan".

Mr. Vijay Kedia built a net worth of over Rs. 800 crores.

But you probably never read past that headline.

So I binged hours of interviews to learn his investing principles and strategies.

Here are 20 lessons on investing from @VijayKedia1 Sir:

Collaborated with @AdityaTodmal

Before I start, a quick disclaimer, please don't ape his portfolio.

As the entry price, horizon and risk appetite would be far different than yours.

Rather lets draw inspiration and try to learn his stock picking skills.

Now let's DIVE IN👇

1/ Started off as a trader:

- Soon, beginner’s luck started to fade out and loses started to mount, to an extent where his mother was about to sell her ornaments.

- Although he was able to dodge the situation.

- This incident taught him the biggest lesson to have a stop-loss.

2/ Punjab Tractors:

- In 1990, he made his first investment by putting in his 10-years savings of Rs 35,000 in this stock, based on a news trigger that tractor industry will witness a turnaround.

- It worked and fetched him 4-5 times which he calls it as a fluke.

3/ He believes that an investor must possess three qualities:

i. Knowledge,
ii. Courage, and
iii. Patience.

The Ife Primary Education Research Project (1970-1983).

aka

The Ife 6-Year Primary Project.

In 1970, as the Director of the Institute of Education of the then University of Ife (now Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife), later Dean Faculty of Education, Prof. Babs Fafunwa & his team embarked on one of the most groundbreaking research projects in education for Yorubaland.

The aim of the project was to test the hypothesis that the best instructional medium for good concept formation at a very tender age is the mother tongue.

This was bolstered by the observation that “of all the continents and peoples of the world, it is only in Africa…

…that formal education is offered in a language that is foreign to the child.”

So, Yoruba was to be used & tested as an exclusive medium of passing information or instructions to a set of pupils.

The project was based on the premise that:

(a). the child will benefit culturally, socially, linguistically & cognitively.

(b). the child’s command of English will be improved if he is taught English as an entirely separate subject by a specialist teacher through the 6 years.