Unseen rule 1 :: whatever be the reason, never justify the valuations of a rising stock price

Unseen rule 2 :: whatever be the reason, never defend the quality/reason of a falling stock price

Unseen rule 3 :: never react in an impulsive manner to a rising/falling stock price

All these are Pharma sector companies. Company F consistently reports -ve cash flows. It's stock price never compounded. All other examples reported multi-years of +ve cash flow generation. These stocks have been multi-baggers over the years.

Focus on Cash Flows vs News Flows.

@punitbansal14 Every single CDMO/API I’ve spoken about has still many many unseen angles. Below is a small example. Last added @LaurusLabs near 330 last year and immediately disclosed that I’ve added. Nothing sold since. Waiting for correction to add more 🙏🏻

Keywords: Many many unseen angles

In investing doing nothing is the ultimate form of sophistication.

"When an industry's underlying economics are crumbling, talented management may slow the rate of decline. Eventually, though, eroding fundamentals will overwhelm managerial brilliance."-Warren Buffett

Your portfolio will naturally concentrate itself, the way it should be, into your winners if you just stay out of the way.

@Tom_Voltz1 1/

That’s a possibility.

Buffett has this concept of “owner earnings”: how much cash can be safely taken out of a business each year without hurting it?

Take out more than this, and we risk hurting the business’s competitive position, earning power, unit volume, etc.

2/

At the same time, leaving capital in a terrible business is not a great idea either. It’s like throwing good money after bad.

In fact, directing capital away from textiles (a bad business) and into insurance (a better business) is one reason for Berkshire’s success.

/End

Live tweeting highlights from our discussion with @SamitVartak moderated by @ishmohit1 and the DIA gang. @saket1974 @saketreddy @dadalife369 @cautkarshpandey @vishal_chandi

So let’s begin -

1. Before looking at the valuation of a business, look at the fundamentals first.

On cyclicals -

2. We look for profit power, the ability of the company to control price and gauge profit. This is why we don’t look at cyclicals.

3. With cyclicals, oftentimes the promoters themselves cannot predict pricing and profitability.

On building a portfolio -

1. Reducing the size of your portfolio too much can make it harder to find big winners, the ones that can give up to 40x in 10 years.

2. I look at 15-20 stocks as a balance between not spreading yourself too thin and not takeing too much risk.

On taking away market share -

1. Creating disruptions and innovating with new products allows you to take away market share. Example #APLApollo and the DFT technology.

2. Cash cows don’t deliver outsized returns for an investor. Aggression and innovation is needed.

On themes -

1. It is very difficult to pre-empt a theme before it happens and predict how it will play out. Instead of that, I look for data.

2. Deleveraging and capex is taking place. Companies have become lean in this period.