(1) BELGIUM: @alexanderdecroo @GLBouchez @ducarmedenis Number of false PCR positives of asymptomatic people still high and obviously not showing right picture. Deaths way down and show the absolute uselessnes of mass testing.

(2) On top of that, overall mortality during expected winter resurgence not nearly as high as during first wave whatever the media may tell you. Excess mortality clearly above average for ONE MONTH in autumn.

(3) Graph missing last month so would be even more normal. The BE curve follows all models for new viruses that we saw ONE YEAR AGO. Measures have had extremely limited impact - arguable made the curves sharper and harder to deal with for hospitals (pp locked up = indoors).

(4) Mortality in BE within the usual threshold (Covid replacing influenza) for at least one month. Compare below to the narrative and you see that the virus is well on its way to becoming endemic. The winter "wave" has been over for a long time.

(5) Include in this the faulty PCR (most estimate 35% false positives and many declared + after they died, or when they died from other conditions, and a couple of things become obvious:

$TSLAQ Instead of having an accrual palooza, I will dribble these out as I have time and available information. The first account to be reviewed: Automotive Leasing Revenues. The remainder of the planet calls this Sales-Type Leasing (ASC 842.) (1/n)

GAAP allows revenue recognition if a manufacture or dealer leases the preponderance of useful life and economic value of inventory. Computer manufactures are significant users of this accounting treatment. The journal entries for this type of leasing are: (2/n)

The sales are the present value of the payments plus down payment. COGS is the cost of the equipment less the present value of the residual payment. (3/n)

The final receivable entry is the residual value added to the lease payment receivable to remove inventory from the financial statements. $TSLA classifies the lease receivable as an Operating Lease Vehicles, net on the balance sheet and they are subject to depreciation. (4/n)

The assumptions in the calculation that can be subject to manipulation: the implicit interest rate of the lease and the residual payments. Lower rates increase capitalization of the lease which gives higher revenues. Larger residual decreases cost of goods sold. (5/n)

Since @SEBI_India has imposed new decisions for peak margins, making Retail Traders suffer the most and big players take advantage by doing easy manipulation of the market.
#SEBIagainstRetailTraders

After this decision trading in derivative segments will be done by a handful of big players. It seems like they are working in favor of HNIs or big players in the stock market.
#SEBIagainstRetailTraders

It is a worldwide practice that more than 90% of trade volume comes from retail traders(small traders), who utilize leverages from brokers in order to make money from the stock market.
#SEBIagainstRetailTraders

Since the start of the lockdown period, there was only 1 industry that was still grooming, this was indeed the stock market. Many people who lost their jobs, businesses during this tough time, saw a ray of hope in trading to support their livelihood in a dignified way.

It seems their last hope to earn livelihood in a dignified manner is also fading away.
#SEBIagainstRetailTraders

There's just days until the Northern Ireland protocol enters into force on 1 Jan. The Joint Committee has made it's decisions, the UK and EU have agreed an FTA (the TCA), and the UK have announced lots of new schemes, but what does this all mean for the Irish Sea Border ⛴️🚛🧵

Tariffs💵The Joint Committee already agreed that most goods moving GB-NI that are for sale or final use in NI will not be subject to tariffs. Businesses will need to register for the UK Trader Scheme to certify that their goods qualify.

Registrations for the UK trade scheme opened on 15 December so cutting it a bit fine. But the JC decision allows for any applications to the scheme to be provisionally approved for up to 4 months. The zero-tariff UK-EU deal has relieved some of the strain on the scheme because..

A lot of goods moving GB-NI will qualify for tariff-free access whether the goods are staying in NI or going to the EU, so many businesses may not bother using it. But it could still be important for goods who don't meet the Rules of Origin threshold

Customs formalities 📑 The same paperwork, including customs declarations, will be required on goods going GB-NI as going GB-EU. The UK-EU have agreed some simplifications in the TCA & UK officials applying EU law in NI will no doubt be as light touch as possible.

As 2020 draws to a close, here's a few posts for my 2020 annual review! 👇

Focus is on the types of trade I made, the underlyings traded, & strategy outcomes, rather than just showing the overall % return

To kick it off, below is the 2020 equity curve of my main account 💰

So what did I trade? As you can see, Options have significantly contributed to 2020 Realized & Unrealized profits, with almost two thirds of gains coming from this asset class. Otherwise I have some net gains on short & longer term Stocks, and a loss in Futures 😊

I traded around 70 underlyings in 2020; here they are, ordered by % contribution to my annual Realized & Unrealized gains

$CRWD, $NET, $WYNN & $FSLY are my top winners! 🚀

I made a bit more than 200 opening trades in 2020. By far the most common are Long Stock and Short Put trades

Best performer = Short Puts, with an 84% win rate! Another 7% were rolled into new strikes, and only 1.43% were a loss 😮

Win rate on long stock is lowest. This is skewed as I’m only using Realized gains, and most of my profitable stock positions are still open

Important update regarding the 'Trades I liked' chart:

I'M GOING NAKED 😱

Don't worry, there is method behind the madness 😉 This is a thread, grab a coffee or a glass of wine. Or you could just have an Irish Coffee instead, cover all bases😊

I used to take trades all the time off various levels & vwaps. All these give off some great trades! However more recently, the majority of my trades have been off the naked bars. Not a lot beats trading wicks for me, it's a simple setup that repeats all day long!

As Matt used to say in the room "If you're not using something, why the fuck is it on your chart"? I found myself thinking the same thing tonight when explaining my chart to someone.

Now altho I haven't been taking that many trades off levels or vwaps, I still want to know where they are. E.G. If I'm long & I can see we're going to run into the PSH (Previous Session High) or Day 3 VWAP, I'll think abt adding-on (to bring target below) or killing trade there.

Context is so important. The 15m chart with the levels and vwaps on give me what I need to see (the overall picture with where the potential road blocks for the day will be). For the 1m chart, I don't actually need them on there.

As I completed 23 years on this lively planet and 5 years in this stock market, I want to share my 23 mistakes of my Investing journey.

A thread🧵

1. Quick Money
I begin with the stock market in a thought that it is an easy and fastest way to make money. Initially, I begin with buy and hold strategy but I felt, that is not what I came for and so I initiated with trading and in few months, (1/n)

I made some good returns, in the next succeeding month I lost my profit and my initial capital. (due to demonetization).

One quote revamp my mind “Rome was not built in a day and Hiroshima and Nagasaki were destroyed in a day” (2/n)

2. Taking tips from News Channels
I lost my faith in 2016 due to such a heavy loss and embark to take tips from TV channels and follow them on daily basis. I don’t know about others but this step failed me miserably. (3/n)

TV channels are just for TRPs, if they don’t provide tips, viewers shift to another channel, while you know the rest.(4/n)

Solid session on 🇮🇳 by @balajis and @naval via @joinClubhouse

Key takeaways... 👇

1/ India will be the biggest beneficiary of the move to #remotework. Three factors driving this: the English-savvy population, willingness for companies out West to hire from a global talent pool, and the large STEM-educated workforce.

2/ India has the potential to become a media superpower. We have Bollywood, the massive audience, the content creators. They foresee India churning out media that isn't uniquely Indian, but one that resonates with global audiences.

3/ The government isn't doing foreign investors any favors with the stringent capital controls they've put in place. Additional capital gain taxes, overbearing KYC controls, and cumbersome paperwork are a few factors dissuading foreign capital from entering Indian markets.

4/ Where you choose to live, incorporate your company, and target your audience could be thought out and optimized for. They don't need to all be in the same region anymore. The world is flatter than ever before.

1/7: I understand that #Ripple's selling concerns many people. But the question is... how do you responsibly distribute Ripple's 50B $XRP? Ripple holding so much #XRP is one of the biggest complaints about XRP and why so many people don't like it and may also prevent ODL adoption

2/7: Escrow was introduced to help this, but that $XRP is still in Ripple's custody. They really need to distribute it. But how? Ideally, it should already have already been done years ago, but you can't go back in time to do it. @JoelKatz has talked about this challenge before.

3/7: So we're against them holding it and we're also against them selling it. So how do they distribute it? They can't give it away, who gets it, how do they choose? Giveaways this late in the game also negatively affect prices. Higher supply = lower demand = lower prices.

4/7: Ideally, they would only distribute this to Financial Institutions for use in #ODL, but unfortunately, there's not enough demand for the utility of XRP through ODL. Perhaps because Finacial Institutions don't want to hold it/use it due to regulatory uncertainty.

5/7: As I see it, there are a few options for distribution:
a) Incentivize the use of ODL despite regulatory clarity - such as giving incentives to #Moneygram,
b) Lock it back up in escrow, effectively reducing supply, but giving #Ripple custody.

A coda to my tweets this week on #uranium contracting and the carry trade:

We care about how uranium has been bought and sold over the last decade - not just the sale price - because it informs us as to how a period of rapid price increase could develop over the next few years.

Reminder: the carry trade provides three main services.

1. Time shifting - matches supply today w/ demand tomorrow
2. Price formation - provides fixed forward prices in a market not always willing to provide them
3. Risk mitigation - decouples forward supply from mine operations

At some point in the forward price curve, newly mined supply (tied to inflation) is less expensive than financed spot supply (tied to spot price + interest).

At a constant financing rate, a spot price increase brings forward the time at which these two price curves intersect.

This is not controversial - at the locus of increased utility purchasing and decreased supply availability, uranium price goes up and the carry trade becomes less attractive. For lack of a better term, let’s call this a transition from a carry-driven to production-driven market.

A production-driven market might be:

...in contango, with a forward curve driven by mining cost inflation (input costs, depletion).

...in backwardation, with a supply squeeze in the short term but competitive sellers offering cheaper prices in the forward market.

THREAD: Unless you think $XRP is actually going to zero (spoiler- it's not), it doesn't make much sense at all to sell here. "But Credible, I can put the money elsewhere and it will make me money! Why hold this rotten, centralized, scam coin! It's just going to go down (cont.)

forever!" Well good sir, let me put this into perspective for you. Even if you think $XRP will never see ATH, or even past $1 again, chances we see a dead-cat bounce at the bare minimum, are high. Aside from the fact that we are now in a full fledged bull market, we can (cont.)

see that sell pressure on XRP is waning at this time- not just on the BTC pairing, but also the USD pairing. Bullish divs are popping up everywhere, across all TF's. This indicates that at the very LEAST, we will likely see a dead cat bounce here shortly (if not reversal) (cont.)

. So, lets take the chart below for example. If you hold here, even a dead cat bounce to .40 would increase the value of your position by near 100%. If you moved your funds elsewhere, say ETH for example, you would need to ride ETH from current prices of $750 to (cont.)

$1500 just to get the same rate of return. Or, you would need to ride BTC from $28,000 to $56,000 to get the same rate of return. Do you see what I am trying to say? The ONLY reason you would be selling here is if you think that there is actually a decent chance that $XRP (cont.)

🚨Weekly Market Update #1🚨

I go through a daily and weekly process that helps me maintain a higher level perspective on markets and not lose the forest for the trees.

I use @KoyfinCharts for essentially this entire process - thank you @koyfman!

Time for a thread 👇

1/ Domestic Markets

Note: I look at many time periods for everything presented here. For convenience I show trailing 3 months in this thread.

Nasdaq outperformance vs. the S&P and Dow is narrower when compared to T6M. Over the T12 period, the Nasdaq has outperformed by 26%.

2/ European (+Brazil) Markets

Germany (DAX) has lagged both the French (CAC) and UK (FTSE) markets. Including Brazil (Ibovespa) here - it has been outperforming Europe.

The DAX and IBOV have fully recovered from the March 2020 drawdown while the CAC and FTSE continue to recover

3/ Asian Markets

The KOSPI (Korea) has been on absolute fire, with the NKY close behind. The SHCOMP has lagged of late.

The KOSPI has also outperformed since the pandemic, with the NKY and SHCOMP lagging by 17% and 21%, respectively, over the T12 period (HSI is breakeven).

4/ US Sectors

Energy and Financials have been on a tear lately (economic recovery). Materials have also performed well, playing the recovery.

Technology and Consumer Discretionary have led over the T12 period, but are in the bottom half T3M.

Healthcare has held up strong.

A thread about my thoughts on the market:

$SPX has a rising wedge, looks really weak.

$DXY is bottoming with the short interesting going higher and higher.

$UVXY building a big base. Last time we saw this was in February.

$RUT has hit respected trendline from 1998.

$DJI about to hit the respect trendline from 1929 and 2000. These were two secular bull markets that ended.

Big tech looking really weak.

$NVDA about to break down.

$MSFT had a breakout failure, which is usually very bearish.

$FB has already broken down.

$APPL looks to have a double top. Also went outside of bull channel.

Back in 2000, there was a late rotation into $RUT and it broke out of a base and this spelled the top for the $NDX.
We are seeing the similar pattern here in 2021.

Short interest for $DXY is sky-rocketing. Such an extreme positioning has led to a rally in the past. A $DXY rally is a big threat to equities and precious metals.

R/T
@MacroCharts

After trading profitably for a living every year since 2000, in late Jan of 2018 I lost 500k in an hour in the XIV blowup. It destroyed me mentally. I Couldn’t think clearly for 18 months. Couldn’t stop “trying to get my money back” which just made it worse.

Finally, I shut it all down scared shitless that I couldn’t trade any more. I had to protect what was left of what I had built over the previous years. The village of idiots in my head had somehow taken over the castle.

I had to dive deep and fully accept the financial loss and so many other life losses that I was carrying with bitterness and anger to find neutral again. My career had become my compulsion to fix the wrongs of the past, my opiate that had huge hangovers.

Thru the painful process of true awareness of what I was doing, I started day trading 100 shares of AAPL just to keep connected to my roots. Not thinking, not caring just trading my feel of the day from all that I had seen over the years.

Not caring was liberating. It felt so good to trade and simply not give a shit if I made money or not. I just flipped 100 shares around based on my feel of the tape and I did this for 3 months while I licked all my wounds trying to figure out how to let it all go. Summer 2019.

Mistakes i made when i was new to trading..

A thread :

Watched news for tips ( it's ok to see interviews and all, but avoid watching it for tips )

Wanted everyone's view for my trades ( the more views you get, the more confused you will eventually be, focus on your own study )

Over traded ( more number of trades doesn't means over trading... Trading without plan is over trading )

Leverage trading ( it's ok to do it, but should be avoided in first year of trading or atleast till you have proper knowledge of the risk involved )

Everyone should own a digital asset that earns $2,000 per month.

Here are 10 dead-simple ways you can make your First $1 online (from people who actually did it):

🐦 Analyze viral Tweets

1. Get Twemex (free chrome extension)
2. Find influencers with viral tweets
3. Identify why they went viral
4. Put your analysis on a document.
5. Upload it to Gumroad
6. Sell it

H/t @BrianFOConnor

🔢 Extract data from yellow pages into excel

1. Find a B2B/B2C niche that needs offline data
2. Choose a digital platform (Excel, Airtable ..)
3. Move the data to the digital platform
4. Hire someone on Fiverr to do it
4. Sell it on gumroad

H/t @SachinRamje

🎨 Design flyers and graphics

If you are good at designs:

1. Find a niche (ex: Vegan resturants)
2. Create a profile on Upwork
3. Upload a portfolio
4. Start with a low charge per hour/design
5. Steadly increase your charge

H/t @abdussalampopsy

🏋️ Become a coach

1. Decide on a target persona
2. List down your achievements
3. Update your social profiles
4. Create a calendar account
5. Create content with CTA to book a call

H/t @OllieEmberson

EXTREMELY IMPORTANT INTERVIEW FOR INVESTORS
Especially new ones!

I disagree with most of it, but ULTRA-IMPORTANT!

Here's why
1/
https://t.co/THWfs2SI2y
@stevenmarkryan
@jpr007 @stekkerauto @garyblack00 @TeslaBest @iamtomnash @TeslaPodcast @EvaFoxU @WR4NYGov
$TSLA #Investing

2/ Grantham from GMO is labeled as a value investor, but don't let it fool you. Unlike other "geniuses" he doesn't just check P/E or P/S, but also factors in growth, including possibly huge growth.

Ultimately his preference or bias is for dividend stocks, but he's doing it right

3/ He sees the current condition as a bubble that should burst in. 2 months - unless further inflated by the fed.

If you disagree don't stop reading. Important!

4/ Before pointing to where i agree and where i don't, i think it's ULTRA IMPORTANT for investors to hear opposing views, when they have firm grounds

Fine to disagree but bad to just dismiss or ignore - do that and you might lose everything

(that's the only ADVICE i give, BTW)

5/ Grantham sees the market as a bubble that should burst in. 2 months - unless further inflated by the fed

History shows that on bull mkts once everyone is HUGELY optimistic and put EVERYTHING they have in the mkt, there is nowhere else to go (unless fed gives even more money)