$TSM: Fueling the Future of Computing

Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg. Co. (TSMC) has become the leading manufacturer (fab) of semiconductor chips by capitalizing on a series of egregious missteps at $INTC

This is *not* a buy rec, but rather info for when it's actionable

A thread👇

1/ The Basics

The first "pure-play" foundry -> enabled the rise of the "fabless" (i.e. design-only) industry

A foundry ("Fab") manufactures microchips (integrated circuits "IC") for customers such as fabless chip companies.

Fab only = sole focus on better process technologies

2/ First Mover

The leader in chip mfg. is the fab that can get to the next “process node” first

Process Node (“Tech”): Used to indicate feature size of transistor - > now marketing tool for chip generation

As @GavinSBaker wrote in Jan '19, TSMC passed INTC at the 7nm node

3/ Market Overview

All electronics = powered by semis

3 Types of Companies:

1. Integrated Device Mfgs. (“IDM”): $INTC, KOSE: A005930, $TXN, $MU

2. Fabless: $NVDA, $AMD, $QCOM, $AVGO

3. Fabs: $TSM, $UMC, $SMICY, GF

Market Size: Semis power all electronics…

4/ Technology Advantage

Tech dominance while other foundries can’t keep up (GF dropped out at 7nm)

Tech advantage -> customer additions ($AMD from GF)

1) 5nm already in production
2) Specialty tech (5G)
3) Advanced Packaging

TSM: 52% market share

Manu leader + Ecosystem

🚨Weekly Market Update #1🚨

I go through a daily and weekly process that helps me maintain a higher level perspective on markets and not lose the forest for the trees.

I use @KoyfinCharts for essentially this entire process - thank you @koyfman!

Time for a thread 👇

1/ Domestic Markets

Note: I look at many time periods for everything presented here. For convenience I show trailing 3 months in this thread.

Nasdaq outperformance vs. the S&P and Dow is narrower when compared to T6M. Over the T12 period, the Nasdaq has outperformed by 26%.

2/ European (+Brazil) Markets

Germany (DAX) has lagged both the French (CAC) and UK (FTSE) markets. Including Brazil (Ibovespa) here - it has been outperforming Europe.

The DAX and IBOV have fully recovered from the March 2020 drawdown while the CAC and FTSE continue to recover

3/ Asian Markets

The KOSPI (Korea) has been on absolute fire, with the NKY close behind. The SHCOMP has lagged of late.

The KOSPI has also outperformed since the pandemic, with the NKY and SHCOMP lagging by 17% and 21%, respectively, over the T12 period (HSI is breakeven).

4/ US Sectors

Energy and Financials have been on a tear lately (economic recovery). Materials have also performed well, playing the recovery.

Technology and Consumer Discretionary have led over the T12 period, but are in the bottom half T3M.

Healthcare has held up strong.