1/7: I understand that #Ripple's selling concerns many people. But the question is... how do you responsibly distribute Ripple's 50B $XRP? Ripple holding so much #XRP is one of the biggest complaints about XRP and why so many people don't like it and may also prevent ODL adoption

2/7: Escrow was introduced to help this, but that $XRP is still in Ripple's custody. They really need to distribute it. But how? Ideally, it should already have already been done years ago, but you can't go back in time to do it. @JoelKatz has talked about this challenge before.

3/7: So we're against them holding it and we're also against them selling it. So how do they distribute it? They can't give it away, who gets it, how do they choose? Giveaways this late in the game also negatively affect prices. Higher supply = lower demand = lower prices.

4/7: Ideally, they would only distribute this to Financial Institutions for use in #ODL, but unfortunately, there's not enough demand for the utility of XRP through ODL. Perhaps because Finacial Institutions don't want to hold it/use it due to regulatory uncertainty.

5/7: As I see it, there are a few options for distribution:
a) Incentivize the use of ODL despite regulatory clarity - such as giving incentives to #Moneygram,
b) Lock it back up in escrow, effectively reducing supply, but giving #Ripple custody.

Short thread on emotions in trading

A common meme is that the best traders are the least emotional. I’m calling BS on this.

I’ve analysed the Psychological make-up of many brilliant traders over many years using psychometrics. And whilst this isn’t scientific research.

1/9

I’ve not found a correlation between people’s emotional intensity & their performance. Some of the very best traders I come across are highly emotional.

Risk is felt, it’s not something that can be quantified despite the failed attempts of many. 2/9

Of course allowing your emotions to control your trading is unhelpful, but some of the ‘emotional’ types have learned to master this and have become incredibly adept at it.

The fact that they don’t suppress their emotions aids this process.

They use their emotions as

3/9

clues and triggers on their internal radar. It’s a skill which great traders learn to do.

Feeling their emotions & being aware of them enables them to identify opportunities & threats with great haste, giving them an edge over ‘less emotional’ types who are not able to

4/9

recognise some signals.

By contracts the less emotional types can tend to be overconfident & don’t always see (because they don’t feel) the degree of risk or threat in situations.

I am not saying emotional or unemotional is superior. Both types can and do succeed.

5/9

As 2020 as 2020 was (no typo here), 2020 was a great year for some investors. If you invested in some stocks, you could have gotten 10 times your money. Crypto got more adoption etc

Going into 2021, the phrase “regression to the mean” has been on my mind. The phrase simply means

that life averages out, or life tends towards a steady average. That is, years of high gains or huge wins are often followed by years of lower ones such that when we look back, growth maintains a steady average

What does this mean? 2021 might not be as great a year for the stock

market and other high-risk investments as 2020 was. It also means that if you’re going into the stock market or buying crypto because you want to double/triple your money in a few months as some people did in 2020, that might not happen.

If you’re looking to invest, do it for

the long term. Don’t take high risk or invest in things you don’t understand. Take your time. Do the research.

“When the student is ready, the teacher will appear” - Lao Tzu
When the time is right, the right opportunity for you will present itself. You just have to prepare

yourself (get ready)

2020 has given some of us a taste of supernormal returns. People were doubling their funds in days/weeks etc. When we see returns like these, it isn’t easy to rate any investment that’s not offering something close to that in a similar time frame

But here’s

Mkt view :
Only 290 companies trading above dec 2017 prices which was top of overall broader market. If one looks at nifty which is concentrated in 5 stocks, then it may scare them. Whereas individual stocks have yet lot of room to grow.

In history of markets, when interest rates can not grow and remain so low for another 1 year minimum then stock prices are bound to soar.

How to play in current markets :
1. Debt free and low working capital companies ( as% of sales) with less receivable days and small cash conversion cycles . This ensures company always has money to operate n stay afloat.

2. High growth companies with above 1st condition. Top line of 10% plus and bottom line of 25% plus consistently with increasing or stable operating margins make the company do better in robustness of share price.

In such pandemic corona conditions or earlier demonetization, nbfc liquidity crunch, ilfs, small & midcap dwnfall from 2018: if all of these situations can not stop these companies then What will?

1) As the miserable year of 2020 reaches its end, it's time to return to the offices of Hindsight Capital LLC.

For those unfamiliar, this great, albeit imaginary, hedge fund invests with the benefit of a style guaranteed to beat all others: hindsight

2) As such perfect vision would allow infinite returns, certain limits are imposed on Hindsight Capital’s managers:

🚫It can't trade during the year
🚫It can't use leverage
🚫It can't invest in individual stocks
✅It must make broader or sectoral

3) Hindsight can, however, make “long-short” trades.

But the hedge fund must be able to explain how someone might have made such a trade based on only what they knew at the time. Foreknowledge of earthquakes and hurricanes, for instance, is not allowed

4) As for the pandemic, Hindsight Capital’s managers were aware of the novel coronavirus in Wuhan and had little difficulty in predicting how the world would react and what its effects would be.

That was crucial, as will be seen in this thread

5) Hindsight Capital always bases itself in the country with the year’s weakest currency.

In 2020, that was Brazil, giving its managers a great excuse to live out the pandemic from an office overlooking Ipanema Beach

The stock market is not a neutral arbiter of real value.
The stock market is not a neutral arbiter of real value.
The stock market is not a neutral arbiter of real value.
The stock market is not a neutral arbiter of real value.
The stock market is not...

Most of the banks whining about Reddit would be more bankrupt than Gamestop if the government wasn't constantly propping them up with easy money.

It's all an artificial construct. Which is fine, as long as we stop pretending it's an objective marketplace governed by natural law.

We've set up a system where everyone depends on too big to fail finance companies, public policy doesn't work without them, but they're ALSO allowed to be predatory and they're never allowed to lose money.

Citigroup doesn't get to decide who lives and who dies.

We apparently aren't allowed to decide with our VOTES that hedge funds should die and brick and mortar companies should live if possible.

And now they're freaking out if we literally start deciding it with our *money* in their "free" market.

They don't get to decide! /3

Goldman Sachs, Citgroup and Manhattan hedge funds are not sober, responsible judges of who deserves to live or die according to real capitalist value.

If the rules were fairly and equally applied, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup would be bankrupt and stripped to the bone. /4

How I Trade

Easy. I trade with the trend. Buy low sell high for up trends. Sell high, buy low during down trends. I don’t care about fundamentals. Often I don’t even know what sector the stock is in. Half my trades, don’t even know the name of the company.

I look at the setup. I look for skew. If a few other variables line up. I stalk it for an entry.

Then I use options to maximize my capital. I mitigate the risk with diversification.

How to spot the trend?

Let’s take a look at this chart. Now. Let’s trade it.

I have no idea how. There are no landmarks. It could be going up, or down, maybe sideways. If I have no clue where it’s going. How do I make a plan? Where do I enter? Where is the exit?

Elliott Waves Principle

Now this one. A simple fact. If you see a 1-2 setup. 3 is next. 3 runs fast and hard. Usually between 100% to 161.8% of 1. However if price break down below 2. This trade is invalid. We have to consider an alternative.

Can you manage a trade like this?

How long does it take to learn Elliott Waves?

Months probably years to be an expert in it.

Not that is not going to do you any good eh? Years to master something before making any money.

An option buyer made Rs. 58 lacs from Rs. 2 lac capital in a span of just one month (March 2020 COVID crash).

He is none other than Mr. Subasish Pani.

THREAD: 11 things you must know to become an option buyer.

Collaborated with @AdityaTodmal

•Don't get carried away with the kind of return that Mr. Pani made in such a short period of time.

•This requires a high level of skill, and discipline in terms of which strike to choose, which time to trade, and which days to trade.

•It also comes with higher drawdown.

1/ Screen Time:

• Indian markets function from 9:15-15:30.

• Dividing this time zone into 3 sub parts:
- 9:15 to 10:30: trending market
- 10:30 to 13:30: for retracement
- 13:30 to 3:30: trending

2/ Focus on momentum:

• Option buyers make money when the momentum is quick.

• However if the market remain sideways for few days then the option starts to lose its value.

• This is because theta decay works against option buyers.

3/ Option buyers need momentum to make money:

• Hence focus on the 1st & 2nd time zone where the markets are trending.

• Avoid taking trades between 10:30am till 13:30.

• Special focus on Wednesday & Thursday as premiums are low and if you can catch momentum then good R/R.

‘Billions will be wiped off the stock market!’

‘Project fear’

‘There will be chaos at ports!’

‘Project fear!’

‘Supermarkets and shops will struggle to get products’

‘Project fear!’

‘Medicinal supplies could dry up!’

‘Project fear!’

‘Brexit will detrimentally affect the value of the pound’

‘Project fear!’

How to become a SUCCESSFUL investor: a guide 1/n

1) Diversify but don’t. Diversification is for idiots, but it is also a free lunch.

2) Stay consistent but don’t. Have a consistent repeatable process, but also adapt to changing markets.

3) Read outside research but don’t. The best investors think for themselves and are lone wolves but they also talk to others to learn and copy ideas.

4) Use the sell-side but don’t. Your time is valuable and using the sell-side saves time, but it is also low quality and will add needless noise – don’t use them.

There is a serious misreading, particularly on the Left, as to what is going on with Gamestonks, $GME, $AMC, $BB, $NOK, the whole kit and kaboodle. Equating this with the Capitol Hill insurrection or with Trump or 4Chan is a mistake. Thread.

A lot of leftists are imposing their ideology on Gamestonk, rather than analyzing the conditions. This is a good explainer by @JamesSurowiecki. Using social media, options, and discount brokers, the mob figured out a way to exploit Wall Street.

Of course it's not so simple. Wall Street loses, Wall Street wins. @alexisgoldstein explains how some hedge funds make a killing even as some take a bath. But 1000s of retail investors are being screwed by Wall St and Washington in all of

Additionally, three Wall Street oligarchs have made a collective $2 billion of GameStop alone. Michael Bury, one of the famous traders from "The Big Short," has also apparently made $250 million. So, yes, rich are getting richer.

But if all you focus on is the wealthy, than you cannot explain why there is blatant market manipulation going on with many brokers suddenly preventing retail investors from buying "meme stocks" like GME, AMC, BB, NOK, BBBY. In fact, they can only sell. Who does that benefit?