According to S3 Partners, $TSLA shorts have lost $35B in 2020. I talk with many TSLA shorts, and have been on the other side of their trade all year. Here is where $TSLAQ got it wrong: Way under-estimating TSLA TAM, and in thinking ICE-branded EV launches would hurt TSLA.

2/ Street estimates are soaring. $TSLA 2020 and 2021 EPS ests have almost doubled this year, as Y has quickly become TSLA ‘s best selling model with less than 20% cannibaliz’n of M3. Model Y is now being taken global. Meanwhile, China volumes will be 50% of TSLA volume in 2021.

3/ When I argued with shorts about Model Y, they missed that Y was a small SUV and M3 was a small sedan. The two don’t compete. And yet, shorts would argue Y would massively cannibalize M3. Y more than doubled $TSLA ‘s US TAM, from 25% to 66%, and will do the same globally.

4/ From my $TSLAQ discussions, I gathered that few had taken the time to drive the various TSLA models, esp the new Y. None did focus groups with TSLA owners, or very few discussed TSLA with rival dealers, all which shocked me. Their research consisted mainly of current year...

5/ ...and backward-looking financials, and their best materials were charts comparing $TSLA mkt value to ICE mkt values - mindless since going forward TSLA’s competitors are AMZN, GOOG, AAPL, NIO, and RIVN. $TSLAQ would make fun of my forecasts to 2025, saying it was impossible.

As promised, a thread on one of my largest holdings going into the new year...

Allow me to introduce Smart Eye, "the king of DMS"

A little background first

Driver monitoring systems (DMS) are a soon-to-be-introduced safety feature in cars.

As the name suggests, they monitor drivers to ensure they are not tired or distracted while driving and gives them a nudge if they are.

This is going to be legally required to be in all new cars in Europe and North America by the middle of the decade.

As auto OEMs sell on a global basis, what happens in developed markets usually ends up in emerging markets as well.

As a result of this legislation, there is a pretty clear path for increased penetration of DMS in the auto industry.

The slide below shows industry forecasts of around 60% penetration in new cars sold globally by 2025.

As a small aside, Volvo did a great ad for DMS last year. Just priming consumers for what's to

1/
Let's talk about returns and return expectations. For traders, this year was probably the biggest opportunity set since...1999?

Many people struggled this year due to obvious reasons but us traders have been living in another reality.

2/
As most of you know I livestream my trading on Twitch every day using simple setups and principles with no rocket science or fancy indicators involved.

I started the year with $3.7M in all trading accounts combined and finishing it with $36M.

That's an 870% return.

/3 It has been the journey of my life and I did not think making more than $100K was possible when I started trading.

A lot of people had insane returns this year, most due to luck, few due to skill. Most WILL give it all back, a few will keep it.

4/
New traders have the tendency to get more agressive and reckless when their accounts go straight up (been there, done that many times).

When you start feeling like a Greek God just having defeated the Titans, that's when things can mostly go downhill and bad things happen.

/5
A lot of traders I have been checking in on over the years are having 5-10-20x returns over their previous years both %- and $-wise.

I'm talking about daytraders, scalpers, swing traders, long biased, short biased. This market had something for everyone.

A dumb thing I did in 2020:
Saw something that wasn't there on a maiden RE trade and bot late. Should have known bulk tonnage MRE/PEA etc almost all sold news in 2020 but was busy and rushed. Need to be early to best win those types of deposits. -25%ish for my trouble. 1/11

It was small money fortunately. <---GT Gold. Embarrassing thinking back on it. Industry guy told me it was kinda dumb after.😀I would say the lesson is to never rush into things but that's not true. There's times you can rush into things but it depends on the circumstances. 2/11

Example: I just happened to be watching the trading on Kodiak Copper as I thought it was through an interesting spot then all of a sudden the stock just started getting walked up. Grabbed some. It halts a minute later and releases proof of concept assays the next day. 3/11

Context is everything. Don't be afraid to try some things but keep it small when trying. You can learn really important lessons. Save piling in on concepts for when you've been doing this for years (10+?). You might win big early and think you're smart. Most of us are not. 4/11

No substitution for the grindstone. I won on a couple positions early. Tough to lose on Claude Resources buyout & finding Nexgen. Was saying to a few of the guys last night that I am surprised I did not go -50% on portfolio next. My strength was knowing I still knew little. 5/11

This year, my trading income crossed ₹3CR in profits.

It took 300 days, no big drawdowns & operated at a 86% win rate percentage in weekly.

Here are the 6 steps for you to do great in trading:

Hope it's helpful to someone.

[🧵 thread]

Collaborated with @niki_poojary

1/ Learn Price Action

First of all, you need to focus on learning about price action.

If you do so, you'll be able to understand the big player's footprints better which is critical to know as we can side with them to make profit.

Better to be with them than against them.

2/ Journal your trades

Journaling will change your trading forever.

Why? Because you will precisely know where you are going wrong and whether you keep repeating the same mistakes.

You'll also know in which market you perform the best and in which type of markets you don't.

3/ Avoid losing more than 2% on a trade

I have seen many traders including the really good ones as well, where one big loss will spoil a month or two of their trading year.

The loss becomes so big to overcome that more mistakes are made.

So don't go in a big loss itself.

4/ Think only from a buyer vs seller point of view

You should know who is in control, a buyer or a seller not in options but in futures.

Also understand, at which points do these traders usually tend to give up.

Can take trades confidently and aggressively then.

Thread: Bull Case on $FSRV

$FSRV is a great investment due to strong balance sheet, incredible growth in both earnings and revenue, and serve a competitive niche within this fintech market. I am very excited to be apart of this, undervalued, long term investment opportunity:

What does Katapult do?

They’re a fintech lending, e-commerce focused, service that allows nonprime customers to borrow money and purchase durable goods such as: Fridge’s, Tables, Couches, etc

Why they are competitive?

Some consumers with little to no credit often times don’t get approved, and it can be costly. Katapult leverages AI and ML to allocate money to them CHEAPER and faster than ever before.

Has this been profitable?

They have both grown revenue AND EBITDA at astounding rates. They hit profitability this year and grew 171% YoY. They project they will have a CAGR of EBITDA and Net Income at 75% 🤯🤯

This is a profit and growth monster, an investors dream!

Can they maintain this growth?

Lending isn’t a new service, and neither is leveraging AI/ML. But Katapult’s customer segment is niche, as nobody else wants to do it. They stand in their own quadrant, providing a long runway for niche growth.

Thread: Free Options Trading Course for Beginners with small capital.

Reference: Option trading marathon series, part 1 from Mr. Subasish Pani ft. @PushkarRThakur

Collaborated with @AdityaTodmal

1/ Trading journey of Mr. Pani

• He has an experience of 7 years.

• He has made a profit of Rs. 20 cr. over these years with a capital of Rs. 2 cr.

• However, it's not easy to make such profits.

• More difficult, is to retain those profits and build more on it.

2/ How he ventured to options selling

• He started with futures and option buying however after a certain point when his capital grew, he faced scalability issues and hence he resorted to options selling.

3/ Investing becomes imp once the capital grows:

• Since his trading profits have grown well, he has started investing (investing is always for LT).

• For folks who dnt have much info regarding investing can simply buy Nifty 50 stocks & keep rebalancing as Nifty 50 does.

4/ Covered calls strategy for the portfolio:

• Pledge the portfolio and receive margin ~80% which he would then use to sell OTM CEs of the stocks which are in his portfolio.

• This helps in generating fixed income from the portfolio.

THREAD $FB
I see a lot of flippant bearish FB tweets. Typically they are politically motivated or lack data. I love hearing the other side, but haven’t seen a thoughtful bear case so I thought I’d try build it myself.
Summary: 1) Users Fall; 2) Competition; 3) IDFA; 4) Opm% fall.

1) Despite the popular narrative I see of “I don’t use FB anymore and neither do my friends,” unless you think FB is flat out lying about their User #s, the data doesn’t support this. FB Blue DAUs have been going up every year World Wide and in the more mature NA market.

Note, FB reports MAUs/DAUs for Facebook blue app, and only recently started reporting the FB Family of apps in aggregate (Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, WhatsApp) which has ~2.54bn DAUs vs. FB Blue at 1.82bn.

But NA Users DID FALL sequentially in 3Q20 (after robust additions during the earlier periods of COVID) and have been fairly stagnant since 2018 when the Cambridge Analytica news hit (3Q17-1Q19, over 6 quarters FB only added 1mn net DAUs and the stock was down over this period).

NA is 10% of FB users but 50% of Revs so it is a key geo to watch for. Admittedly, at 195mn DAUs in NA and 255mn MAUs, there likely aren’t a lot of users left to acquire. If you’re not on FB now, you probably won’t be in the future (unless you’re a teenager and you “age up”).

Patience , A quality needed to be successful in markets.

But when the real capital is put at risk, The patience goes for a toss.

Thread on Why Emotions overtakes patience -

1. Mindsets-

Decisions are taken by either the Higher mind (Frontal lobe) or the Fear based mind .

When decisions are informed by our higher mind, they are more likely to lead to positive outcomes. decisions driven by survival instincts from the past can hold us back.

Primitive mindsets are characterized by a feeling of urgency, high stakes, rigidity, and repetitiveness.

The moment that real capital is put at risk in trading, everything changes ,Trading goes from a logical exercise to a game of emotions.

And after you experience a loss, your brain will start anticipating potential losses instead of gains.

Ever experienced fear of entry in a trade when you had a streak of losses previously, then you have experienced the power of Emotional mind over the rational mind.

2. Emotional Hijacking -

Emotions are not psychological they are biological in nature, that’s why they take over your logical ability and you cant control them even when you want.

Your brain’s prime directive is self-preservation – keeping you alive.

This FT piece on deb #cancellation is interesting and poses a few interesting questions.

Let me begin with what I do not like.

The case against cancelling debt at the #ECB https://t.co/o0Vvvf6leU

#monetization 1/

The excessive focus on Italy is off the mark. Any serious discussion on sterilizing this exceptional debt linked to the pandemics should concern all EMU countries. All have had a spike in deficit

2/

Nor I like the argument that debt sterilization would not bring fresh cash. It would not, and of course it would not be needed. EMU public debt is today (and for a long period to come) in excess demand. On top of that the ECB will keep the PEPP umbrella open for a while

3/

Sterilizing the EMU pandemics-related public debt is a medium term issue, related to future fiscal space. Will this exceptional stock of debt that built in 2020 constrain EMU countries in their ordinary fiscal policies in the future? This is the question to ask
4/

If the answer is yes (I believe it is), then sterilizing that debt is eventually going to be an issue to be dealt with. And the ECB will have to be part of the solution
This is what the FT seems to suggest too (this is why the piece is more complex than it seems)
5/

/1 on the advantages of replacing high leverage margin swap/futures positions with options

/2 have heard anecdotes of participants losing large parts of their crypto holdings by chasing the bull market with mistimed leveraged longs and see thousands of nameless participants in the billions in notional that are liquidated on any material move in the markets.

/3 there are two enormous costs to engaging in this behavior:

1) poor traders tend to chase, margin longing after significant price moves up have already happened. combined with high leverage, this means they manage to lose money by being liquidated (force sold) on pullbacks.

This results in somehow losing money longing in a bull market.

2) Derivatives exchanges charge a maintenance margin when you are liquidated to give them a buffer to close losing positions prior to the bankruptcy price.

Any excess goes to the insurance fund. This excess necessitates that margined positions do not capture their full EV.

Yesterday, responding to a Bloomberg article which claimed that Zimbabwe’s ‘trade surplus’ is evidence of progress, I pointed out that a trade deficit is not necessarily a bad thing. Indeed, it is not. 1/20

I illustrated this with FDI, which can result in trade imbalance. FDI is good but it can create temporary import pressures, a ‘healthy’ trade imbalance. A trade surplus in and of itself is not a measure of economic performance. 2/20

A number of people could not understand how FDI could in any way be related to imports. This thread is for their benefit i.e., @tafadzwamerere, @PatsDaMan, @sabepe83, @AlekeMukunga, @mkhwananzivusa, @muzekepwa and @DzeShe88. 3/20

The first point is that FDI is not limited to financial flows. To grow productive capacity of a country, it can lead to growth of imports of capital and intermediate inputs for industry. Zimbabwe has few industries producing these. 4/20

Those asset and intermediate inputs flows are recorded as imports. A simple example below: 5/20

THE ONE WHO STAYED BEHIND

Dimitar Berbatov & Christiano Ronaldo played for Manchester United in the 2008/2009 football session.
That was the only season both players were on the books of Manchester United at the same time...

Berbatov said of Ronaldo; “I was lucky to play alongside Ronaldo for a season. He was 100% professional, on the training pitch & off it.
I don't remember him ever being late for training...

He was always preparing in the gym, after training he would stay & do extra work like working on his shooting, then he would go swimming & go to the gym again…”
The club had strict training sessions. The players had to fit into the training schedules to stay fit & competitive...

They all wanted to excel.
They stuck religiously to these training schedules.
Their lifestyles- their training, eating, drinking, sleeping- everything was under scrutiny.
They were professional athletes, their physical fitness was very key to their success...

So they aligned themselves to these rigid training schedules.
when the training sessions were over, the players would leave for home.
BUT RONALDO WOULD STAY BEHIND!
He would train more.
He would practice more.
He would go swimming to tone his muscles more...

William's Alligator is probably the most underrated indicator in moving average category.

Alligator follows the premise that market is sideways for 70% of the time and trending only 30% of the time.

This is where William's Alligator can be a great tool for traders.

Why William's Alligator can be a great tool for traders?

It can identify Bullish, Bearish and Sideways market pretty easily. Problem is, traders don't know how to use it effectively. Alligator has three lines:

1. Lips - Fastest Line
2. Teeth
3. Jaws - Slowest Line

Book Interpretation is when Lips Crosses above Jaws, it's a buying opportunity and when below its a shorting opportunity. And when three lines are crisscrossing, instrument is sideways.

BUT this does not make it a tradeable indicator in practice. Here is what should be done.

Firstly, when all the Alligator lines are moving up or down and are widening, this phase is called "Alligator eating with its mouth wide open". When the lines are crisscrossing, this indicates the alligator is sated.

Now, how to use it? with Basic TA and Indicator like MACD

Rules to remember:
1. As long as price is above Alligator, BANKNIFTY is bullish.
2. As long as MACD is trading above 0 line, BANKNIFTY is bullish.
3. Horizontal Lines are the only S&R.
4. CONGESTION is followed by TREND is followed by CONGESTION.

This is the most important concept which made me great money in 2022.

This is the skill which is GUARANTEED to make you a better trader

Banknifty moves in 2 phases.

1: Consolidation
2: Trends

An understanding of both of these phases will take your trading to the next level.

Let's start with consolidation phase

It looks like this when Banknifty is stuck inside a range.

This is phase when you shouldn't be taking directional trades.

As market is mostly choppy and is good for mean reversion scalpers.

An option seller can initiate neutral strategies under such an environment.

Trending phase will look something like this

The price action is quick and furious at this time.

As you can see after a consolidation there is a strong breakdown.

#wallstreetbets #WallStreetBetsnew #wallstreetsbets #GME #GameStop #reddit #robinhood
Hey, do you want revenge against #WallStreet ? #silversqueeze
Read this thread and RETWEET and speak of it around as much as you can please🚀
edit: Other threads to follow bcause not enough spc

Today wallstreet decided to take your money and pop the bubbles they helped you to create and I can say with 100% confidence that they made money on the way up then they gonna make money on the way down. They rule THEIR game!

But what they've done since a very long time to protect the system that serves their hegemony is suppress the price of one of the most ancient and most popular form of money throughout the history: SILVER

They do it because #wallstreet is dependent of the dollar printing machine of the central bank. Every competitor of the dollar must be eradicated or controlled. The Silver is especially important for them because of its history as money.

Silver has been money more often than Gold, there are still 42 countries (including mine: France) where the word money and Silver are the same.
It's people's money, that you used to use to fill your tank or buy your groceries.

Dear All,
1. A new year of hope started, I thought to pen some of my views about making money (Investing & Trading), these are the points which I keep telling me & I thought to share with you all. I hope, it will help both all. #investing #investingpsychology #tradingpsychology

2. Equity is a riskier way of making money, but still, the ease of control, liquidity & speculation attracts us all, more adrenalin rush in trading versus any other modes of equity-like MF, ETFs, Small-cases, Longer-term investment. #investing #investingpsychology

3. Everyone comes to equity to become millionaire/billionaire/..., but very few become so, otherwise, most of the analyst would not be running webinars or panel of TV or writing books for regular income.