1) The Ecosystem, Part 1:

Getting Dressed

2) NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE

and even more importantly, not clothing advice

3) This story ends with @bonfida, but it starts with @SushiSwap.

By now pretty much everyone knows the story:

The meteoric rise, the sudden crash, the dormant period, and the recovery.

This story starts at the lowest point: right after the migration.

4) See, the lowest point *should* have been right after nomigate.

But of course there was negative sentiment then! That was expected.

The brutal part for the project was after the fires were put out--the dev funds returned, the migration successful.

5) That should have been the recovery.

But instead, Sushiswap endured a month of the most negative sentiment I've ever seen a project have.

There was a chat, as the major builders and multisig holders got things off their chest.

1/ Who are the investors in GBTC?

Why is there a premium?

And what is the sweet trade they’re taking advantage of?

A thread 🧵

2/ Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust made headlines again with their record 1-day addition of 16,244 Bitcoin, adding to their stack of over 630,000 Bitcoin and an AUM of ~$23B. Evidently business is good...So who are their investors? And is GBTC’s premium an incentive or disincentive?

3/ What is the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC)?Grayscale owns BTC in the trust & investors buy shares to represent a # of BTC. There’s a 2%/yr fee+a “premium.”The premium is the diff. btwn underlying BTC value(Native Asset Value or “NAV”)vs. mkt price of holdings(what shares cost)

4/ There are 2 layers of investors. There are the base layer investors - accredited investors selected to buy into the private placement of the fund at the “NAV” price aka the price of the underlying BTC value

5/ They can send USD or Bitcoin and receive a # of shares equivalent to the BTC value (0.00094919 BTC/share). One catch is its 1 way - Once you put BTC into the trust, it can’t be redeemed. Investors can sell their shares, but the BTC will remain in the trust and off the market

Running through the public information for @PlugIntoPaysafe $BFT.

I've leveraged available information from @Square $SQ, @NuveiTech $NVEI, and @Paypal $PYPL.

1/25

@MrZackMorris

You can get a sense for how much net stock @RobinhoodApp customers were buying from the size of capital RH just

The $1bn is to cover future possible activity, so it doesn't matter for looking backwards.

It does confirm that solvency concerns drove the restriction. You don't raise 1bn of equity to cover your tracks if nefarious, nor if the restrictions were a tap from regulators.

They drew $500-600m and presumably met their NSCC margin call with cushion. Say they posted $350m (guess - you don't draw $500m to post $62m and shut down trading methinks).

I did a quick guesstimate yesterday - 20m normal going to 200m on 4x VaR and 800m net unsettled buys of GME.

That ain't 350m. So either the size of GME buy and/or VaR multiple are ~2x that or DTCC demanded more than 10% margin on unsettled GME trades.

You can't get a tight range of what the net GME buy was outstanding without knowing more, but you can bound it - the net GME buy *10% < 500m so less than 5bn ... not v helpful frankly.

THREAD: Do the people on Reddit's #WallStreetBets who are buying Gamestop, AMC, and other stocks have any legal liability to do so?

1/ Although the facts are still evolving, it appears that many users on #WallStreetBets (a "sub-reddit" on Reddit, a social media site) and others starting buying Gamestop, AMC, and other stocks that they believed were being "shorted" by certain Wall Street firms.

2/ You "short" a stock when you sell a stock that you don't own, betting that the price will go down. The goal is to sell high and buy low. If you "short" a stock and the price goes up, you can lose a lot of money by buying shares at a higher price than you sold them at.

3/ Based on media reports, it looks like a lot of Redditors didn't like that certain Wall Street firms had bet big that the price of Gamestop and AMC would go down via COVID.

By buying up Gamestop and AMC stock, they caused the price to shoot way up in a short period of time.

4/ That caused fast gains for them and potentially huge losses for firms that shorted those stocks.

So did they engage in "market manipulation," as some people on social media have claimed? Could they get in trouble with the SEC, which is "watching" the matter, or go to prison?

1. You will read today many ignorant assertions, of this ilk ...

https://t.co/5d5jgqVDqI

... to the effect that the EU has introduced "significant barriers to free trade e.g. customs and regulatory checks".

But the EU has introduced no new barriers.

2. Simply, the UK has redefined itself as a "third country" and positioned itself outside the EU's existing regulatory

3. As a third country, it will now have to deal with all the pre-existing regulatory barriers that have been erected over time, which apply (to a greater or lesser extent) to other third countries.

4. The degree to which this trade deal is effective can be measured by the extent to which these entry is handicapped by these pre-existing barriers, and what steps have been agreed to mitigate the effects.

5. However, as long as the UK is a third country, outside the Single Market, traders will have to deal with significant entry barriers when sending goods to the EU. These are an unavoidable consequence of leaving the Single Market.

A thread on 𝐇𝐨𝐰 𝐓𝐨 𝐀𝐝𝐣𝐮𝐬𝐭 𝐚 𝐒𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐝𝐥𝐞

1/n

1. First of all one should know when to do a straddle, ideally when premiums are good and view is 𝐬𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐰𝐚𝐲𝐬 or when you are not expecting a huge trend.

2. When you do place a straddle, you will have good premiums so you will be covered for a good amount of move.

2/n

3. Find your breakevens, and ideally delta should also be neutral.

4. Do not adjust until your BEP is breached or the delta exceeds (+/-)40, whatever happens first, generally delta limit will breach first.

5. When delta reached lets say -40 it means you have to roll puts.

3/n

6. Just book profits in the current short put and roll put up by matching the premiums, delta should again be close to neutral but one can choose to have a little -ve delta since if there is mean reversion, PEs will spike.

7. This means you will be going Inverted(Short ITM)

4/n

8. Keep repeating the same process until expiry OR till either one option reaches 100 delta which will mean that you basically are short/long one future lot.

9. As soon as any option reaches 100 delta, just book the straddle be it in loss or profit, dont adjust at all.

5/n

Franklin Investors are asking if they vote YES when will they get back full payment & what is time limit for winding up. This thread answers their questions which none is answering and all investors want to know

Investors need to refer to #SEBI Rule 14.5 which governs Distribution of Proceeds realized by MF from investments which are illiquid at time of winding up

If amounts are realized from illiquid investment after 2 years of winding up it has to be transferred to Investor Education Fund

Hence the mutual fund is required to sell all bonds within 2 years of winding up i.e. 23rd April 2020. So investors will get back entire amount by 22nd April 2022.

So Winding Up Process cannot continue indefinitely as is being misunderstood by most of investors Experts & even MF

🇺🇸🎅PATRIOTSTORYTIME🎅🇺🇸

‘Twas the night before Christmas, when all thro’ the House,

2Not a swampcreature was working, not even a mouse;

3The stock market was flush with all of Trump's flare,

4In hopes that St. Nicholas soon would be there;

/1/

1. Some initial thoughts on the U.K.-EU trade deal, in advance of seeing the text, which is reported to be 2,000 pages plus...A THREAD (1/10)

2. As has been said repeatedly, this is what was described at the start of the process as a hard Brexit: the U.K. will be outside the Single Market and the Customs Union. There will be no tariffs or quotas but customs checks etc will erect substantial trade barriers in EU trade

3.There will be nothing for services except in areas where the EU will unilaterally grant equivalence. The EU will play hardball on this eg at end Nov EU made it clear that European derivatives trading will be limited to platforms inside the EU or third countries with equivalence

4. There will be areas where some products will be excluded from the trade deal. Seed potatoes has been mentioned - there may be other surprises yet.

5. Who moved? It seems as if the U.K. moved substantially on fish and the EU moved on its initial position on the LPF and the arbitration mechanism: it wanted something which involved automatic ratcheting - it feels more like a standard FTA between EU and non-European countries.

$LMND – Lemonade insurance, MEGA THREAD! 🥳

One of the longer ones, but we will come around the company, numbers, bull/bear-case, 2021 expectations, products, etc.

Always apricate a comment, retweet, and dialogue about these threads🥰

Hope you are ready🚀

1/x What they do

”Lemonade Insurance Company is transforming the very business model of insurance… Unlike any other insurance company, we gain nothing by delaying or denying claims (we take a flat fee!), so we handle and pay as many claims instantly as possible.”

2/x The company

👉4 years old
👉Hyper-scaleup
👉Not profitable
👉Using AI is their biggest advantage
👉+1M customers
👉They have 0 debt
👉+300 employees
👉+50 job openings atm
👉90 seconds to sign up
👉down to 3 seconds to get paid for a claim (avg. 1 day)

How they do:

3/x Funding💰

Lemonade Inc. is backed by investors including:

- Aleph
- General Catalyst
- GV (formerly Google Ventures)
- Sequoia Capital
- Thrive Capital
- SoftBank (biggest investor today, 21,18%)

The total money raised by the company to $480 million before IPO🤑🤑

4/x Data

- 87% of their customers are first-time policyholders
- 75% are younger than 34 years of age
- Biggest age group are 25-34 years with 63%
- 23,5% female / 76,5% male
- Customers Per human are outstanding
- Their prices are on average 68% cheaper than their competitors

Our major new analysis of the EU-UK trade deal highlights ten areas that must be addressed urgently to deal with non-tariff trade barriers looming come January 1st.

Although the Johnson deal is better than a WTO arrangement, it will still result in ‘considerably higher barriers’ to trade.

identifies areas of concern ranging from regulatory challenges and data issues to membership of the Erasmus scheme and climate change.

Commenting @BestForBritain CEO @pimlicat has said:

“This deal was negotiated at speed, and it shows. It is far from the comprehensive deal voters were promised”

“it is woefully thin on services that account for the lion’s share of our economic power, and it bares little resemblance to a modern trading agreement.”

Despite DII selling since Sept 2020, markets have continued to move up due to continued FII participation.

Demand recovery is still uncertain and uneven. Complete opening up of economy leads to the risk of a second wave.

COVID- A disguise in blessing. COVID has taught many businesses how to curtail expenses and improve margins.

"China +1" Theme can be a good opportunity for India

Capex Cycle Recovering

After trading profitably for a living every year since 2000, in late Jan of 2018 I lost 500k in an hour in the XIV blowup. It destroyed me mentally. I Couldn’t think clearly for 18 months. Couldn’t stop “trying to get my money back” which just made it worse.

Finally, I shut it all down scared shitless that I couldn’t trade any more. I had to protect what was left of what I had built over the previous years. The village of idiots in my head had somehow taken over the castle.

I had to dive deep and fully accept the financial loss and so many other life losses that I was carrying with bitterness and anger to find neutral again. My career had become my compulsion to fix the wrongs of the past, my opiate that had huge hangovers.

Thru the painful process of true awareness of what I was doing, I started day trading 100 shares of AAPL just to keep connected to my roots. Not thinking, not caring just trading my feel of the day from all that I had seen over the years.

Not caring was liberating. It felt so good to trade and simply not give a shit if I made money or not. I just flipped 100 shares around based on my feel of the tape and I did this for 3 months while I licked all my wounds trying to figure out how to let it all go. Summer 2019.

1) There are several secrets to becoming a successful #investor and most are hiding in plain sight.

2) This many sound like a cliché, but it hides a simple truth: buy quality companies. When I started #investing, I didn't feel like I could identify quality, so I bought a subscription to @TheMotleyFool and let them do the heavy lifting.

3) I paid $199 per year each for @TheMotleyFool #StockAdvisor and #RuleBreakers subscriptions. They have paid for themselves MANY times over.

4) Another obvious strategy that FAR too many #investors ignore is that "winners keep winning." "That one got away from me, and now I'm waiting for a pullback" has probably lost investors more money than every pullback combined.

5) To put this into practice, I look at the recent list of @TheMotleyFool recommendations and see which #stocks have put up double- or triple-digits gains in recent months and then try to understand why. In many cases, I end up buying the stock, even after 30% 40% 50% gains.