Threat 1/ 👇: One of the characteristics that differentiate good investors from bad investors is the ability to identify OPTIONALITY in companies and their discipline to either get it for free or pay very little.

2/ Think about it as buying out of the money options, if you pay too much for something that has very small odds of happening you lose money. This is what happened in the 2000's crash, people bought internet stocks based on illusions, very few of them had any real business.

3/ The markets assign "perceived" higher valuations to some businesses and lots of investors scream how expensive everything is. Some are, but a lot are not, and not being able to identify the optionality of some businesses can destroy your opportunity to have outsize returns

4/ Estimating the odds of something that does not exist or it is very small to succeed and grow is very hard. For something new to work it is needed: The technology, the infrastructure, and the distribution, then new ideas can come which use those, they'll have + odds of success.

4/ Optionality gets "cheaper" once you find the above characteristics as the odds of a company with a new idea/project are higher. The thing is that anything that will come from the new ideas/projects won't be reflected in the financials, but that is where the opportunity lies

1/#VeFam, I see a lot of heated discussions regarding $VTHO and it’s speculative value. I thought I’d write a thread to clear out some misconceptions.

First up, VTHO is NOT yield from an investment ( $VET).The whole argument that VET has to give xx% returns via VTHO is pointless

2/Why? Because VTHO is a utility token required for network participation. While it is good that we ordinary holders can trade it, its primary purpose is to enable entities to use the network. VTHO is not a dividend, it is not yield, it’s simply a network participation enabler

3/is it undervalued? depends on if you’re talking about value arising from utility or speculation. Regarding the former, as long as the daily burn rate is lower than daily generation rate (~37m), value appreciation from utility is not a factor. But this will change.

4/regarding the latter,it’s anyone’s guess. It can go 1000x overnight,like anything in crypto.But remember,this is not a good thing for an enterprise focused utility token
Why?
Bcoz value appreciation from utility is organic. @vechainofficial and their customers can plan for this

5/value appreciation from speculation is not organic. It can disrupt budgets and planning. This is the reason there are several levers in place to cushion the speculation around VTHO. Read this article to understand what they

1) The Ecosystem, Part 1:

Getting Dressed

2) NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE

and even more importantly, not clothing advice

3) This story ends with @bonfida, but it starts with @SushiSwap.

By now pretty much everyone knows the story:

The meteoric rise, the sudden crash, the dormant period, and the recovery.

This story starts at the lowest point: right after the migration.

4) See, the lowest point *should* have been right after nomigate.

But of course there was negative sentiment then! That was expected.

The brutal part for the project was after the fires were put out--the dev funds returned, the migration successful.

5) That should have been the recovery.

But instead, Sushiswap endured a month of the most negative sentiment I've ever seen a project have.

There was a chat, as the major builders and multisig holders got things off their chest.

$LMND – Lemonade insurance, MEGA THREAD! 🥳

One of the longer ones, but we will come around the company, numbers, bull/bear-case, 2021 expectations, products, etc.

Always apricate a comment, retweet, and dialogue about these threads🥰

Hope you are ready🚀

1/x What they do

”Lemonade Insurance Company is transforming the very business model of insurance… Unlike any other insurance company, we gain nothing by delaying or denying claims (we take a flat fee!), so we handle and pay as many claims instantly as possible.”

2/x The company

👉4 years old
👉Hyper-scaleup
👉Not profitable
👉Using AI is their biggest advantage
👉+1M customers
👉They have 0 debt
👉+300 employees
👉+50 job openings atm
👉90 seconds to sign up
👉down to 3 seconds to get paid for a claim (avg. 1 day)

How they do:

3/x Funding💰

Lemonade Inc. is backed by investors including:

- Aleph
- General Catalyst
- GV (formerly Google Ventures)
- Sequoia Capital
- Thrive Capital
- SoftBank (biggest investor today, 21,18%)

The total money raised by the company to $480 million before IPO🤑🤑

4/x Data

- 87% of their customers are first-time policyholders
- 75% are younger than 34 years of age
- Biggest age group are 25-34 years with 63%
- 23,5% female / 76,5% male
- Customers Per human are outstanding
- Their prices are on average 68% cheaper than their competitors

According to S3 Partners, $TSLA shorts have lost $35B in 2020. I talk with many TSLA shorts, and have been on the other side of their trade all year. Here is where $TSLAQ got it wrong: Way under-estimating TSLA TAM, and in thinking ICE-branded EV launches would hurt TSLA.

2/ Street estimates are soaring. $TSLA 2020 and 2021 EPS ests have almost doubled this year, as Y has quickly become TSLA ‘s best selling model with less than 20% cannibaliz’n of M3. Model Y is now being taken global. Meanwhile, China volumes will be 50% of TSLA volume in 2021.

3/ When I argued with shorts about Model Y, they missed that Y was a small SUV and M3 was a small sedan. The two don’t compete. And yet, shorts would argue Y would massively cannibalize M3. Y more than doubled $TSLA ‘s US TAM, from 25% to 66%, and will do the same globally.

4/ From my $TSLAQ discussions, I gathered that few had taken the time to drive the various TSLA models, esp the new Y. None did focus groups with TSLA owners, or very few discussed TSLA with rival dealers, all which shocked me. Their research consisted mainly of current year...

5/ ...and backward-looking financials, and their best materials were charts comparing $TSLA mkt value to ICE mkt values - mindless since going forward TSLA’s competitors are AMZN, GOOG, AAPL, NIO, and RIVN. $TSLAQ would make fun of my forecasts to 2025, saying it was impossible.

Thread: Bull Case on $FSRV

$FSRV is a great investment due to strong balance sheet, incredible growth in both earnings and revenue, and serve a competitive niche within this fintech market. I am very excited to be apart of this, undervalued, long term investment opportunity:

What does Katapult do?

They’re a fintech lending, e-commerce focused, service that allows nonprime customers to borrow money and purchase durable goods such as: Fridge’s, Tables, Couches, etc

Why they are competitive?

Some consumers with little to no credit often times don’t get approved, and it can be costly. Katapult leverages AI and ML to allocate money to them CHEAPER and faster than ever before.

Has this been profitable?

They have both grown revenue AND EBITDA at astounding rates. They hit profitability this year and grew 171% YoY. They project they will have a CAGR of EBITDA and Net Income at 75% 🤯🤯

This is a profit and growth monster, an investors dream!

Can they maintain this growth?

Lending isn’t a new service, and neither is leveraging AI/ML. But Katapult’s customer segment is niche, as nobody else wants to do it. They stand in their own quadrant, providing a long runway for niche growth.

Few terminologies you should know before you buy any share.

A Thread 🧵👇

When you're buying your first share, you placed an order than your Demat account. There are many terms should be aware of :

1/ Order - It is a show of intent to buy or sell shares in a given price range.

For example, you may place an order to buy up to 100 shares of Company A, at a maximum price of ₹80 per share.

2/ Bid - Your bid is the amount that you are willing to pay for a share.

3/ Bid-ask spread - This is the difference between the amount people are willing to spend to buy a share and the amount at which the shareholders are willing to sell a share. A trade can only happen when this spread is resolved.

William's Alligator is probably the most underrated indicator in moving average category.

Alligator follows the premise that market is sideways for 70% of the time and trending only 30% of the time.

This is where William's Alligator can be a great tool for traders.

Why William's Alligator can be a great tool for traders?

It can identify Bullish, Bearish and Sideways market pretty easily. Problem is, traders don't know how to use it effectively. Alligator has three lines:

1. Lips - Fastest Line
2. Teeth
3. Jaws - Slowest Line

Book Interpretation is when Lips Crosses above Jaws, it's a buying opportunity and when below its a shorting opportunity. And when three lines are crisscrossing, instrument is sideways.

BUT this does not make it a tradeable indicator in practice. Here is what should be done.

Firstly, when all the Alligator lines are moving up or down and are widening, this phase is called "Alligator eating with its mouth wide open". When the lines are crisscrossing, this indicates the alligator is sated.

Now, how to use it? with Basic TA and Indicator like MACD

Rules to remember:
1. As long as price is above Alligator, BANKNIFTY is bullish.
2. As long as MACD is trading above 0 line, BANKNIFTY is bullish.
3. Horizontal Lines are the only S&R.
4. CONGESTION is followed by TREND is followed by CONGESTION.

This is the most important concept which made me great money in 2022.

This is the skill which is GUARANTEED to make you a better trader

Banknifty moves in 2 phases.

1: Consolidation
2: Trends

An understanding of both of these phases will take your trading to the next level.

Let's start with consolidation phase

It looks like this when Banknifty is stuck inside a range.

This is phase when you shouldn't be taking directional trades.

As market is mostly choppy and is good for mean reversion scalpers.

An option seller can initiate neutral strategies under such an environment.

Trending phase will look something like this

The price action is quick and furious at this time.

As you can see after a consolidation there is a strong breakdown.

We continue to hear that several $ZIL holders are unable to withdraw their tokens from certain exchanges and their withdrawal transactions seem to have errored out as incorrect nonce.

A thread on status update. 👇

1/ This has only affected a few exchanges, while there are others, where withdrawals are getting processed as expected. Also, given that the network is processing transactions as usual, we understand the frustration of some feeling stuck while others can interact on-chain.

2/ PROBLEM: We have spoken to some of these affected exchanges to better understand the issue at hand. It appears that those exchanges issued several consecutive withdrawal transactions which are expected to include an increasing counter called nonce.

3/ However, if any of the intermediate transactions gets rejected for some reasons, then all the subsequent ones get rejected too as the nonce will no longer be consecutive. We therefore believe that nonces were not correctly handled which led to withdrawals getting affected.

4/ SOLUTION: The solution to the problem is in fact quite simple. All the failed withdrawals can be considered by the exchanges to have been rejected by the network and they can re-issue a new transaction with the correct nonce.

Patience , A quality needed to be successful in markets.

But when the real capital is put at risk, The patience goes for a toss.

Thread on Why Emotions overtakes patience -

1. Mindsets-

Decisions are taken by either the Higher mind (Frontal lobe) or the Fear based mind .

When decisions are informed by our higher mind, they are more likely to lead to positive outcomes. decisions driven by survival instincts from the past can hold us back.

Primitive mindsets are characterized by a feeling of urgency, high stakes, rigidity, and repetitiveness.

The moment that real capital is put at risk in trading, everything changes ,Trading goes from a logical exercise to a game of emotions.

And after you experience a loss, your brain will start anticipating potential losses instead of gains.

Ever experienced fear of entry in a trade when you had a streak of losses previously, then you have experienced the power of Emotional mind over the rational mind.

2. Emotional Hijacking -

Emotions are not psychological they are biological in nature, that’s why they take over your logical ability and you cant control them even when you want.

Your brain’s prime directive is self-preservation – keeping you alive.

THREAD $FB
I see a lot of flippant bearish FB tweets. Typically they are politically motivated or lack data. I love hearing the other side, but haven’t seen a thoughtful bear case so I thought I’d try build it myself.
Summary: 1) Users Fall; 2) Competition; 3) IDFA; 4) Opm% fall.

1) Despite the popular narrative I see of “I don’t use FB anymore and neither do my friends,” unless you think FB is flat out lying about their User #s, the data doesn’t support this. FB Blue DAUs have been going up every year World Wide and in the more mature NA market.

Note, FB reports MAUs/DAUs for Facebook blue app, and only recently started reporting the FB Family of apps in aggregate (Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, WhatsApp) which has ~2.54bn DAUs vs. FB Blue at 1.82bn.

But NA Users DID FALL sequentially in 3Q20 (after robust additions during the earlier periods of COVID) and have been fairly stagnant since 2018 when the Cambridge Analytica news hit (3Q17-1Q19, over 6 quarters FB only added 1mn net DAUs and the stock was down over this period).

NA is 10% of FB users but 50% of Revs so it is a key geo to watch for. Admittedly, at 195mn DAUs in NA and 255mn MAUs, there likely aren’t a lot of users left to acquire. If you’re not on FB now, you probably won’t be in the future (unless you’re a teenager and you “age up”).

Franklin Investors are asking if they vote YES when will they get back full payment & what is time limit for winding up. This thread answers their questions which none is answering and all investors want to know

Investors need to refer to #SEBI Rule 14.5 which governs Distribution of Proceeds realized by MF from investments which are illiquid at time of winding up

If amounts are realized from illiquid investment after 2 years of winding up it has to be transferred to Investor Education Fund

Hence the mutual fund is required to sell all bonds within 2 years of winding up i.e. 23rd April 2020. So investors will get back entire amount by 22nd April 2022.

So Winding Up Process cannot continue indefinitely as is being misunderstood by most of investors Experts & even MF

/1 on the advantages of replacing high leverage margin swap/futures positions with options

/2 have heard anecdotes of participants losing large parts of their crypto holdings by chasing the bull market with mistimed leveraged longs and see thousands of nameless participants in the billions in notional that are liquidated on any material move in the markets.

/3 there are two enormous costs to engaging in this behavior:

1) poor traders tend to chase, margin longing after significant price moves up have already happened. combined with high leverage, this means they manage to lose money by being liquidated (force sold) on pullbacks.

This results in somehow losing money longing in a bull market.

2) Derivatives exchanges charge a maintenance margin when you are liquidated to give them a buffer to close losing positions prior to the bankruptcy price.

Any excess goes to the insurance fund. This excess necessitates that margined positions do not capture their full EV.

1/
Let's talk about returns and return expectations. For traders, this year was probably the biggest opportunity set since...1999?

Many people struggled this year due to obvious reasons but us traders have been living in another reality.

2/
As most of you know I livestream my trading on Twitch every day using simple setups and principles with no rocket science or fancy indicators involved.

I started the year with $3.7M in all trading accounts combined and finishing it with $36M.

That's an 870% return.

/3 It has been the journey of my life and I did not think making more than $100K was possible when I started trading.

A lot of people had insane returns this year, most due to luck, few due to skill. Most WILL give it all back, a few will keep it.

4/
New traders have the tendency to get more agressive and reckless when their accounts go straight up (been there, done that many times).

When you start feeling like a Greek God just having defeated the Titans, that's when things can mostly go downhill and bad things happen.

/5
A lot of traders I have been checking in on over the years are having 5-10-20x returns over their previous years both %- and $-wise.

I'm talking about daytraders, scalpers, swing traders, long biased, short biased. This market had something for everyone.

Robinhood is not the only brokerage that limited buys on GameStop this week, so why is it catching all the heat?

Maybe because @stoolpresidente & others were quick to spread a theory that hedge funds must have forced the move? Or, Robinhood acted alone

A thread on facts 1/X

In our 20-minute interview with Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev I tried to push for answers tied to their decision in 2018 to internalize a boring but important part of users' trades to boost revenue

Their decision came with a tradeoff: A spike in volatility could be very, very bad 2/X

It's a behind the scenes part of your trade, but Robinhood or E*Trade passes your stock order to what's called a clearing house

They carry some liability in the days it takes for your trade to settle. That usually isn't a problem, but can become one if a stock swings fast 3/X

Most smaller brokers forgo added revenue to outsource the duties of a clearing house to giants like Apex Clearing, which solely focus on this part of your trade

But Robinhood in 2018 decided to cut ties with Apex to build their own clearing house called Clearing By Robinhood 4/X

Building your own clearing house is ambitious. TD Ameritrade and Schwab built their own but they are industry titans

In Robinhood's own blog they trumpeted their achievement as the "only clearing system built from scratch, and on modern technology, in the last decade." 5/X

Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC) has become very popular globally, especially in USA. SPACs are known as blank cheque companies, because its a shell company with cash. What is it? How does it work? This is a thread.

(1) A group of people, known as the promoters / founders will list a company (SPAC) on the stock exchange. They are the key management who are also shareholders of the SPAC.

(2) SPAC is a listed company, but has no assets, no business, nothing. It only has cash raised from IPO. Shell company with lots of money.

(3) Once listed, the SPAC will use this money to acquire another company and merge it into the SPAC. Once merged, the company is no longer a SPAC, as it now has assets & a core business and operates like any listed company.

(4) The money raised from IPO will be kept in a trust, until an acquisition is identified, closed & approved by regulators & shareholders. The operating expense of the SPAC is borned by promoters until the SPAC turns into company.