Authors Ed Conway

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Which developed country would you say is facing the biggest economic slump of all? The conventional answer is the UK. Eg see this @OECD forecast. But here's a thread about an obscure bit of statistical small print which might mean we've been overstating the scale of the recession


Before we get onto the small print let's deal with what the numbers are telling us. And there's no doubt they're bad. Very bad. Indeed, the @OBR_UK reckons we're facing the biggest slump in GDP since 1709. Down 11% this year alone.


We won't get final 2020 GDP for months (and even that'll be subject to revision). But on the basis of the 1st estimate of Q3 GDP UK contracted at annual rate of 9.7%. So you can see where OBR are coming from
https://t.co/dXK7Mqx3Cd

* yes it was later revised; we'll get to that

In short: look at the headline GDP figures and it looks like the UK is facing an almost uniquely hideous recession. One of the worst in the world. That 9.7% fall is more than DOUBLE the fall in France, Germany and most other EU nations. Worse even than Spain (-8.7%).


This grim economic news has provided more fuel for those convinced Britain's COVID experience has been far, far worse than everyone's else - both in public health and economic terms. But I have for some time wondered about that chart 👆and whether it really makes sense...