Price + Open Interest (OI) + Volume = Deadly Combo

There are many tools for Open Interest. Options Decoder from @TrueData2 is one of the simple yet powerful tools on options and OI.

Below are the 10 Powerful Features of Options Decoder

Thread 🧵🧵

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#1 - PE CE Difference

This feature combines the OI of call options and put options and plots against each other.

At one glance, we can know what big players are doing!

(If they are selling more CE means, they are bearish on the underlying instrument)

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#2 - Advance/Decline

This feature displays all the F&O stocks in one place.

In one click, we can see the stocks in any order (like an increase in price, increase in OI, or decrease in volume, etc).

A highly useful feature for options traders!

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#3 - Open High

This feature displays all the strike prices that have an open high (or open low) for the selected instrument.

If many CE strikes show "Open Low", then the market is bullish!

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#4 - IV Price-OI Chart

This feature plots CE and PE vs. Open Interest (OI) for the ATM strike price.

Always Remember:

CE Long Build Up + PE Short Build Up = BULLISH

PE Long Build Up + CE Short Build Up = BEARISH

CE Short Build Up + PE Short Build Up = SIDEWAYS

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1) The Ecosystem, Part 1:

Getting Dressed

2) NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE

and even more importantly, not clothing advice

3) This story ends with @bonfida, but it starts with @SushiSwap.

By now pretty much everyone knows the story:

The meteoric rise, the sudden crash, the dormant period, and the recovery.

This story starts at the lowest point: right after the migration.

4) See, the lowest point *should* have been right after nomigate.

But of course there was negative sentiment then! That was expected.

The brutal part for the project was after the fires were put out--the dev funds returned, the migration successful.

5) That should have been the recovery.

But instead, Sushiswap endured a month of the most negative sentiment I've ever seen a project have.

There was a chat, as the major builders and multisig holders got things off their chest.

1/#VeFam, I see a lot of heated discussions regarding $VTHO and it’s speculative value. I thought I’d write a thread to clear out some misconceptions.

First up, VTHO is NOT yield from an investment ( $VET).The whole argument that VET has to give xx% returns via VTHO is pointless

2/Why? Because VTHO is a utility token required for network participation. While it is good that we ordinary holders can trade it, its primary purpose is to enable entities to use the network. VTHO is not a dividend, it is not yield, it’s simply a network participation enabler

3/is it undervalued? depends on if you’re talking about value arising from utility or speculation. Regarding the former, as long as the daily burn rate is lower than daily generation rate (~37m), value appreciation from utility is not a factor. But this will change.

4/regarding the latter,it’s anyone’s guess. It can go 1000x overnight,like anything in crypto.But remember,this is not a good thing for an enterprise focused utility token
Why?
Bcoz value appreciation from utility is organic. @vechainofficial and their customers can plan for this

5/value appreciation from speculation is not organic. It can disrupt budgets and planning. This is the reason there are several levers in place to cushion the speculation around VTHO. Read this article to understand what they

Saturday Thread Time.
Re-Read interview of Ed Seykota from @jackschwager
book "Market Wizards". It's the most philosophical interview among all interviews. Needs to re-read it over and over.
@vivbajaj Sir, a re-tweet would be highly appreciated.

1. Systems don’t need to be changed. The trick is for a trader to develop a system with which he is compatible

2. The key to long-term survival and prosperity has a lot to do with the money management techniques incorporated into the technical system.

3. The profitability of trading systems seems to move in cycles. Periods during which trend-following systems are highly successful will lead to their increased popularity.

3.1 As the number of system users increases, and the markets shift from trending to directionless price action, these systems become unprofitable, and undercapitalized and inexperienced traders will get shaken out. Longevity is the key to success.

4. In order of importance to me are (1) the long-term trend, (2) the current chart pattern, and (3) picking a good spot to buy or sell.

It's Sunday morning and I'm grumpy 😑😑 and bored 🥱🥱

Why you ask? It's the weekend, everybody loves the weekend. Time to chill and relax and unwind!!

Yeah talk to a Trader!! We hate weekends and Love Mondays 😂🤣😋

So anyway, my threads on real life practical trading seem to be helping you guys and getting lots of good questions

One which I'm getting asked a lot and a traders biggest dilemma is "WHEN TO SELL"!!

I mean we first look thru a 1000 charts, then we select one to enter, get the entry correct nd wowza it's moving in th right direction nd we're in some profits

Shud be super happy rite?

Unfortunately that's a traders worst nightmare!! Why you ask? Cos goddamit when do we sell?

If we sell too early we risk losing big profits

If we wait too long it might just reverse and we lose most of our profits and most likely even end up in a loss

If we do nothing then our blood pressure goes up cos hey we're traders and that's how we are 😋😋

So here's a "DEEP DIVE WITH DEEPS" on "When To Sell"

** Took me several days to come up with this catch phrase for my learning threads. I hope you guys like it

We continue to hear that several $ZIL holders are unable to withdraw their tokens from certain exchanges and their withdrawal transactions seem to have errored out as incorrect nonce.

A thread on status update. 👇

1/ This has only affected a few exchanges, while there are others, where withdrawals are getting processed as expected. Also, given that the network is processing transactions as usual, we understand the frustration of some feeling stuck while others can interact on-chain.

2/ PROBLEM: We have spoken to some of these affected exchanges to better understand the issue at hand. It appears that those exchanges issued several consecutive withdrawal transactions which are expected to include an increasing counter called nonce.

3/ However, if any of the intermediate transactions gets rejected for some reasons, then all the subsequent ones get rejected too as the nonce will no longer be consecutive. We therefore believe that nonces were not correctly handled which led to withdrawals getting affected.

4/ SOLUTION: The solution to the problem is in fact quite simple. All the failed withdrawals can be considered by the exchanges to have been rejected by the network and they can re-issue a new transaction with the correct nonce.

@AdityaTodmal @niki_poojary I think the best Indian channel for Options Selling is @ThetaGainers, by far!

The baby wakes me up at 5am these days, so let’s talk about $RH. I’ve been following $RH for half a decade now, and I started off with a profound misunderstanding of the company. When $RH started its membership program back in 2016, I thought it was a stupid idea and 1/

a half-assed way to graft a Costco membership dynamic onto what was supposed to be a high-end furniture store. Very confusing. Of course, I was the one who was stupid because my girlfriend at the time (now wife) was an interior designer, and I didn’t bother to ask her about /2

it. $RH employs a bunch of interior designers to help you with your design needs, and you get access to them for the $100 membership fee + you get 25% off all full-priced items. What’s going on here? $100 to save hundreds of dollars + you get interior design services? You 3/

might think it’s $100 fee to have the interior designer upsell or sell more products, and it… sort of is? But what I didn’t know and hadn’t bothered to ask my gf/wife was how interior designers worked. It turns out that if you’re a licensed interior designer, you get 20-25% 4/

off high-end furniture for your clients anyway. And once she told me this everything clicked. The $100 rate was a way to aggregate clients for their internal RH interior design folks, and these interior designers were going to get a 25% discount on their purchases anyway, so 5/

Many traders have no consistency when sizing their positions.

The pros have this down to a science.

Here's my dead simple, 3-step guide to position sizing (and to outperforming 99% of other traders in the process):

Step 1:

Define how much of your account you're willing to risk per trade.

Personally, I never risk more than 1% of my account equity.

If I have $100,000 account, I will never risk more $1,000.

This ensures I will never blow up my account on one single trade.

There are successful traders who risk 2-3% of their account per trade, but I find it most calming to risk 1% or less.

The first step in this process is completely up to you - only you can dictate how much risk you can tolerate.

Step 2:

Look for entries & exits that are within 5% (preferably less) of each other.

This means if I buy a stock & have a 5% stop loss, I can put a 20% equity position on & still be risking 1% of my equity.

Your account will thank you w/ 20% in a stock that goes up 100%.

Step 3:

Position size using this formula:

Total equity (100%) / Trade Stop Loss %

So, if your stop loss is 4%, here's the math:

100% equity / 4% stop loss = 25% Equity Position Size

(assuming 1% equity risk).

Here's another hypothetical calculation:

1/ Thread on Bill Foley

Over the last ~40 yrs, Foley has been one of the most successful investor-operators

Using the public markets Foley has built, invested in, and driven the growth of 6 generational fintech companies

In some ways, he is the John Malone of Fintech/Software

2/ The Beginnings:

Foley began his as a lawyer in AZ, where he came across Fidelity National (FNF), which was an under-optimized title insurance co.

Title insurance was (still is) a fragmented and arcane industry

Foley saw an opportunity ripe for optimization & consolidation

3/ In 1984, Foley led a $21mm LBO of FNF and got to work

He ruthlessly optimized and professionalized the co. Under his leadership, FNF's title margins avg'd 300-500 bps better than its closest competitor

At the same time, FNF executed a massive roll-up strategy to mrkt-share

4/ Between 1984-2020, tiny FNF acquired 90+ companies and became the country's largest title insurance and settlement services co.

But that wasn't all...

Ever the multi-tasker, during this period Foley used FNF's regulatory capital to invest in generational fintech companies

5/ With the FNF's regulatory capital, Foley created companies that are now standalone public companies:

- Black Knight
- FIS
- Ceridian
- FNFV / Cannae

$LMND – Lemonade insurance, MEGA THREAD! 🥳

One of the longer ones, but we will come around the company, numbers, bull/bear-case, 2021 expectations, products, etc.

Always apricate a comment, retweet, and dialogue about these threads🥰

Hope you are ready🚀

1/x What they do

”Lemonade Insurance Company is transforming the very business model of insurance… Unlike any other insurance company, we gain nothing by delaying or denying claims (we take a flat fee!), so we handle and pay as many claims instantly as possible.”

2/x The company

👉4 years old
👉Hyper-scaleup
👉Not profitable
👉Using AI is their biggest advantage
👉+1M customers
👉They have 0 debt
👉+300 employees
👉+50 job openings atm
👉90 seconds to sign up
👉down to 3 seconds to get paid for a claim (avg. 1 day)

How they do:

3/x Funding💰

Lemonade Inc. is backed by investors including:

- Aleph
- General Catalyst
- GV (formerly Google Ventures)
- Sequoia Capital
- Thrive Capital
- SoftBank (biggest investor today, 21,18%)

The total money raised by the company to $480 million before IPO🤑🤑

4/x Data

- 87% of their customers are first-time policyholders
- 75% are younger than 34 years of age
- Biggest age group are 25-34 years with 63%
- 23,5% female / 76,5% male
- Customers Per human are outstanding
- Their prices are on average 68% cheaper than their competitors

THREAD: Do the people on Reddit's #WallStreetBets who are buying Gamestop, AMC, and other stocks have any legal liability to do so?

1/ Although the facts are still evolving, it appears that many users on #WallStreetBets (a "sub-reddit" on Reddit, a social media site) and others starting buying Gamestop, AMC, and other stocks that they believed were being "shorted" by certain Wall Street firms.

2/ You "short" a stock when you sell a stock that you don't own, betting that the price will go down. The goal is to sell high and buy low. If you "short" a stock and the price goes up, you can lose a lot of money by buying shares at a higher price than you sold them at.

3/ Based on media reports, it looks like a lot of Redditors didn't like that certain Wall Street firms had bet big that the price of Gamestop and AMC would go down via COVID.

By buying up Gamestop and AMC stock, they caused the price to shoot way up in a short period of time.

4/ That caused fast gains for them and potentially huge losses for firms that shorted those stocks.

So did they engage in "market manipulation," as some people on social media have claimed? Could they get in trouble with the SEC, which is "watching" the matter, or go to prison?

Short thread on emotions in trading

A common meme is that the best traders are the least emotional. I’m calling BS on this.

I’ve analysed the Psychological make-up of many brilliant traders over many years using psychometrics. And whilst this isn’t scientific research.

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I’ve not found a correlation between people’s emotional intensity & their performance. Some of the very best traders I come across are highly emotional.

Risk is felt, it’s not something that can be quantified despite the failed attempts of many. 2/9

Of course allowing your emotions to control your trading is unhelpful, but some of the ‘emotional’ types have learned to master this and have become incredibly adept at it.

The fact that they don’t suppress their emotions aids this process.

They use their emotions as

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clues and triggers on their internal radar. It’s a skill which great traders learn to do.

Feeling their emotions & being aware of them enables them to identify opportunities & threats with great haste, giving them an edge over ‘less emotional’ types who are not able to

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recognise some signals.

By contracts the less emotional types can tend to be overconfident & don’t always see (because they don’t feel) the degree of risk or threat in situations.

I am not saying emotional or unemotional is superior. Both types can and do succeed.

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Threat 1/ 👇: One of the characteristics that differentiate good investors from bad investors is the ability to identify OPTIONALITY in companies and their discipline to either get it for free or pay very little.

2/ Think about it as buying out of the money options, if you pay too much for something that has very small odds of happening you lose money. This is what happened in the 2000's crash, people bought internet stocks based on illusions, very few of them had any real business.

3/ The markets assign "perceived" higher valuations to some businesses and lots of investors scream how expensive everything is. Some are, but a lot are not, and not being able to identify the optionality of some businesses can destroy your opportunity to have outsize returns

4/ Estimating the odds of something that does not exist or it is very small to succeed and grow is very hard. For something new to work it is needed: The technology, the infrastructure, and the distribution, then new ideas can come which use those, they'll have + odds of success.

4/ Optionality gets "cheaper" once you find the above characteristics as the odds of a company with a new idea/project are higher. The thing is that anything that will come from the new ideas/projects won't be reflected in the financials, but that is where the opportunity lies

Everything that I’m about to say is coming from someone that has been in the investment management industry for well over two decades now and knows the inner workings of trading and compliance. I also worked for Morgan Stanley early in my career.

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As a registered representative who is fully licensed by FINRA, SEC, and other regulatory agencies, we are tasked with ongoing education, the bulk of which deals with compliance, anti-money laundering and other kinds of malfeasance that may occur while working with clients.2/15

The recent trending of #HunterBiden’s name on Twitter got me thinking back to when #LaptopFromHell was the big story. Some of the material that was released included investment/banking statements that belonged to him. The BD that custodied Hunter’s account was Morgan Stanley.3/15

This is not a conspiracy theory. I’m a believer that there’s truth and then there’s a not quite the truth. Now, every year I must attend a few Anti-Money Laundering (AML) courses to stay current on my continuing education. This is a BIG FUCKING DEAL in the investments world. 4/15

Rarely trust what you hear and always verify everything...including this tweet. MS’s internal trade review desk and other compliance groups SHOULD HAVE FLAGGED Hunter Biden’s accounts for suspicious activity. As far as we know, they didn’t. Why???

5/15

Few terminologies you should know before you buy any share.

A Thread 🧵👇

When you're buying your first share, you placed an order than your Demat account. There are many terms should be aware of :

1/ Order - It is a show of intent to buy or sell shares in a given price range.

For example, you may place an order to buy up to 100 shares of Company A, at a maximum price of ₹80 per share.

2/ Bid - Your bid is the amount that you are willing to pay for a share.

3/ Bid-ask spread - This is the difference between the amount people are willing to spend to buy a share and the amount at which the shareholders are willing to sell a share. A trade can only happen when this spread is resolved.