I've been asked if I'm back involved in $UMDK given the apparent improvement in financials in the 1H PnL.

The short answer is NO. Of course this is not investment advice, DYODD, and I have no position in the stock either way but...

THREAD

1/

Get a cup of coffee.

In this thread, I'll help you understand Geometric Expectations.

2/

Imagine we have an investment opportunity.

If the investment goes well, we get to double our money.

But if it goes badly, we'll end up losing three fourths of it.

There's a 50/50 chance of either outcome.

The question: is this a good bet or not?

3/

A simple way to approach this question is to calculate the bet's "expectation".

For every $1 we bet, there are 2 possibilities:

1. The lucky case, where we double our money and end up with $2, and

2. The unlucky case, where we lose (3/4)'th to end up with just $0.25.

4/

Each of these outcomes is equally likely.

So, on *average*, every $1 we put in turns into ($2 + $0.25)/2 = $1.125.

This is a *positive* 12.5% return.

Such bets are called *positive expectation* bets. On average, we expect to *make* (rather than *lose*) money on them.

5/

Suppose we could take many turns betting at these odds.

In any one turn, we could of course lose money.

But because our bet has positive expectation, *over time* we expect to make money.

(1/25) A number of Silicon Valley investors are putting their money and influence into a campaign to gaslight rape victims into not seeking medical treatment

despite the warnings of top law enforcement officials

and NOBODY is talking about this.

(2/25) First, a little about me. I used to be a licensed sexual assault crisis counselor, counseling victims admitted to one of three Minneapolis emergency rooms.

After I'd speak to the victim, they'd receive a medical exam from a Sexual Assault Nurse Examiner (SANE).

(3/25) During the exam, DNA and other evidence is collected with a "rape kit" to optionally be used in a civil or criminal case.

(4/25) But collecting evidence is not the ONLY reason to receive an exam.

The victim may also receive:
- counseling (hello!)
- treatment for (potentially invisible) injuries
- medications like Plan B and emergency antiretroviral therapy for HIV prophylaxis.

(5/25) Leda Health, a startup cofounded by Madison Campbell and Liesel Vaidya, is raising money to sell "do-it-yourself" rape kits that wouldn't require a hospital visit

which is possibly the most HARMFUL startup idea that I have ever heard of.

1/x Vanna is back & ready to turn back on the charm! Overnight the market hit our weeklong target of **3705 and pulled back... We were able to take profits & play for a bit of morning digestion. It’s been a nice +3.5% in a week w/a few extra scalps along the way...But the best

2/x part has been the gift of Vol compression, which along w/ short Vol profits, has given us significant calendar expansion & dispersion opps, as predicted. I expect this to continue this week as well, as Ivol oversupply should continue to be the dominant force until 12/11.This,

3/x paired w/ the significantly increasing Vanna & Charm flows, will make it hard for any decline until 12/14 to catch meaningful momentum. This said, the narrowing of 20 day RVol as well as the 2 stddev of the 20 day just overhead should cap any rallies, given the dramatically

4/x overextended retail (8-day SMA of P/C equity is the lowest in 20 years) & institutional positioning. This push/pull, should ultimately keep the market fairly pinned this week...Jan 8th call’s on back are incredibly cheap w/ a GA runoff event straddle of only $55, which given

5/x the potential macro-cyclical consequences of the next 2 years of fiscal stimulus seems absurd...& In terms of a more short term trade,Tesla Vol is either too high or 12/18 on back calendar spreads in the SPX are too low, as there’s no premium being priced in for the inclusion

How to Avoid Big Losses In trading ?

1. Avoid Stocks Below 200 ema
2. Sell Stocks in Stage 4 Down Trend
3. Dont Trade Stocks that are moving in Circuits
4. Avoid News based Trading

A thread With examples🔖

Retweet to Educate Your Trading Friends !
1/n

A Study Shows that 90% of the winning Stocks stay above 200 ema before a big Advancing Phase

1. Simply Not Holding or Buying Stocks below 200 ema Saves a lot of time and Money.
2. You can looses opportunity Cost if you buy stocks below 200 ema.
3. TimeFrame: Daily 200 ema

2/n

B. Sell Stocks in Stage 4 Down Trend

1. Stocks Exhibiting this are in complete Bear Grip
2. The 30 week ema acts as reference for stage analysis
3. These Stocks can be short sold on pullback to 30wema
4. Happens after Topping Phase
5. TimeFrame : Weekly , 30 Week Ema

3/n

C. Dont Trade Stocks that are moving in Circuits

1. Mostly these stocks are Speculatve and Operator Driven.
2. You never know what is the top of the trend and may get Stuck with Huge Losses

Example : TTML , Alok , Ruchi etc
This is Pyramid Structure and news driven also
4/n

D. Avoid News based Trading
1. Whenever a postive News comes in Market People Jump in Buying the Stocks without thinking .
2. Most of the the times the news is factored in or gets factored after heavy buying
3. Your Money may get Stuck

Example : PnbBousing , AdaniPower
5/n

@AdityaTodmal @niki_poojary I think the best Indian channel for Options Selling is @ThetaGainers, by far!