Driver monitoring systems (DMS) are a soon-to-be-introduced safety feature in cars.
As the name suggests, they monitor drivers to ensure they are not tired or distracted while driving and gives them a nudge if they are.
As promised, a thread on one of my largest holdings going into the new year...
Allow me to introduce Smart Eye, "the king of DMS"
Driver monitoring systems (DMS) are a soon-to-be-introduced safety feature in cars.
As the name suggests, they monitor drivers to ensure they are not tired or distracted while driving and gives them a nudge if they are.
As auto OEMs sell on a global basis, what happens in developed markets usually ends up in emerging markets as well.
The slide below shows industry forecasts of around 60% penetration in new cars sold globally by 2025.
https://t.co/SHSGRoGpdk
I say software, but it is really an algorithm that sits on the hardware.
This is very sticky and a model usually lasts for ~14 years.
So far, Smart Eye has had 83 design wins from 12 different OEMS, while Seeing Machines has had 12 design wins from 6 OEMs.
For the purposes of this thread I am focusing on Smart Eye. I'm sure Seeing will do well too. A rising tide lifts all boats.
The vast majority of the coming design wins will go to Smart Eye or Seeing Machines.
Smart Eye receives a fee of $5-10 for each car into which it is designed.
This comes at a 100% gross margin and requires minimal extra cost.
In five years time, we can assume 50% DMS penetration, Smart Eye has 40% market share (currently 65% and management see 40% as a minimum) and $5 revenue per car.
This gets $100m of revenue.
I believe every one of those assumptions is too conservative and it gets us to >$50m of EBIT.
I think you can sketch out a pretty compelling IRR from here even though the shares have had a decent run.
I don't know what that could be worth to Smart, but it's probably not zero.
Shout outs to a few accounts that monitor the space closely and are worth a follow @T_I_M_P_P_A @lindqvest @Pelle23961901
More from Trading
1/ Feels like a good time to tell the story of how I went from broke to a millionaire to broke again in 2017/18 again...
Yesterday was brutal for some people...
Losing life-changing money sucks, losing any money sucks...you can chase the market or you can change your strategy.
2/ The original thread is gone but you can read it here.
https://t.co/cLLNs75rB0
tl;dr
- Traded $32k to $1.2m
- Thought I was a genius
- Made poor investments
- Didn't conserve capital
- Peaked at 150 BTC
- Lost nearly all of it
2 weeks from losing my house + no income. Oops.
3/ I am going to assume you are in it for the money rather than the tech. Yeah, you might Tweet about the amazing blockchaining of cross-border payments and oracles yadda yadda...really, you are in it to make money.
If you are really in it for the tech, go and build something.
4/ Okay, so if you want to make money, trading is super hard, you are trading against:
- Better traders than you
- People who can move markets
- Unknown information
And if you are trading with leverage you might blow up your account with the volatility.
5/ If you are not trading, you are investing. Okay, so what are you investing in?
I made the decision that the crypto with the best opportunity of existing in 10 years is #Bitcoin:
- Solves a genuine problem
- The right tech
- A proven track record
Yesterday was brutal for some people...
Losing life-changing money sucks, losing any money sucks...you can chase the market or you can change your strategy.
2/ The original thread is gone but you can read it here.
https://t.co/cLLNs75rB0
tl;dr
- Traded $32k to $1.2m
- Thought I was a genius
- Made poor investments
- Didn't conserve capital
- Peaked at 150 BTC
- Lost nearly all of it
2 weeks from losing my house + no income. Oops.
3/ I am going to assume you are in it for the money rather than the tech. Yeah, you might Tweet about the amazing blockchaining of cross-border payments and oracles yadda yadda...really, you are in it to make money.
If you are really in it for the tech, go and build something.
4/ Okay, so if you want to make money, trading is super hard, you are trading against:
- Better traders than you
- People who can move markets
- Unknown information
And if you are trading with leverage you might blow up your account with the volatility.
5/ If you are not trading, you are investing. Okay, so what are you investing in?
I made the decision that the crypto with the best opportunity of existing in 10 years is #Bitcoin:
- Solves a genuine problem
- The right tech
- A proven track record
We have shared a lot of threads exclusively on Subasish Pani in the past year.
As this year comes to an end, here are the 11 most powerful threads on Subasish Pani exclusively compiled for you all.
Collborated with @AdityaTodmal
1/ Important concepts from Power of Stocks - Subasish
2/ Important concepts with video links of Subasish
3/ The 5 EMA
4/ The Bollinger Band set-
As this year comes to an end, here are the 11 most powerful threads on Subasish Pani exclusively compiled for you all.
Collborated with @AdityaTodmal
1/ Important concepts from Power of Stocks - Subasish
Important Concepts from Power of Stocks\u2014 Subhasish Pani
— Aditya Todmal (@AdityaTodmal) August 12, 2022
7+ years of trading experience in 14 tweets\U0001f9f5
Collaborated with @niki_poojary
2/ Important concepts with video links of Subasish
There are plenty of videos of Subhasish Pani from Power of Stocks.
— Aditya Todmal (@AdityaTodmal) April 17, 2022
You already know those.
Instead, here are 12 concepts from his videos that will make you a better trader\u2013\u2013not worse:\U0001f9f5
Collaborated with @niki_poojary
3/ The 5 EMA
Subasish Pani revealed the most simple, yet successful strategy: 5EMA set up!
— Nikita Poojary (@niki_poojary) July 3, 2022
Here is a thread of 23 video clips on the 5EMA set-up that will save you hundreds of hours and available to you for no cost!
5EMA set-up: \U0001f9f5!
Collaborated with @AdityaTodmal
4/ The Bollinger Band set-
A set up which has a minimum Risk/Reward (R/R) of 1:4
— Nikita Poojary (@niki_poojary) October 2, 2022
This set up can be used for intraday, option selling, option buying, as well as investing.
Maximum profit strategy by Subasish Pani.
Bollinger band set-up: \U0001f9f5!
Collaborated with @AdityaTodmal pic.twitter.com/aEIUVQF2XY
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1/ Here’s a list of conversational frameworks I’ve picked up that have been helpful.
Please add your own.
2/ The Magic Question: "What would need to be true for you
3/ On evaluating where someone’s head is at regarding a topic they are being wishy-washy about or delaying.
“Gun to the head—what would you decide now?”
“Fast forward 6 months after your sabbatical--how would you decide: what criteria is most important to you?”
4/ Other Q’s re: decisions:
“Putting aside a list of pros/cons, what’s the *one* reason you’re doing this?” “Why is that the most important reason?”
“What’s end-game here?”
“What does success look like in a world where you pick that path?”
5/ When listening, after empathizing, and wanting to help them make their own decisions without imposing your world view:
“What would the best version of yourself do”?
Please add your own.
2/ The Magic Question: "What would need to be true for you
1/\u201cWhat would need to be true for you to\u2026.X\u201d
— Erik Torenberg (@eriktorenberg) December 4, 2018
Why is this the most powerful question you can ask when attempting to reach an agreement with another human being or organization?
A thread, co-written by @deanmbrody: https://t.co/Yo6jHbSit9
3/ On evaluating where someone’s head is at regarding a topic they are being wishy-washy about or delaying.
“Gun to the head—what would you decide now?”
“Fast forward 6 months after your sabbatical--how would you decide: what criteria is most important to you?”
4/ Other Q’s re: decisions:
“Putting aside a list of pros/cons, what’s the *one* reason you’re doing this?” “Why is that the most important reason?”
“What’s end-game here?”
“What does success look like in a world where you pick that path?”
5/ When listening, after empathizing, and wanting to help them make their own decisions without imposing your world view:
“What would the best version of yourself do”?
This is a pretty valiant attempt to defend the "Feminist Glaciology" article, which says conventional wisdom is wrong, and this is a solid piece of scholarship. I'll beg to differ, because I think Jeffery, here, is confusing scholarship with "saying things that seem right".
The article is, at heart, deeply weird, even essentialist. Here, for example, is the claim that proposing climate engineering is a "man" thing. Also a "man" thing: attempting to get distance from a topic, approaching it in a disinterested fashion.
Also a "man" thing—physical courage. (I guess, not quite: physical courage "co-constitutes" masculinist glaciology along with nationalism and colonialism.)
There's criticism of a New York Times article that talks about glaciology adventures, which makes a similar point.
At the heart of this chunk is the claim that glaciology excludes women because of a narrative of scientific objectivity and physical adventure. This is a strong claim! It's not enough to say, hey, sure, sounds good. Is it true?
Imagine for a moment the most obscurantist, jargon-filled, po-mo article the politically correct academy might produce. Pure SJW nonsense. Got it? Chances are you're imagining something like the infamous "Feminist Glaciology" article from a few years back.https://t.co/NRaWNREBvR pic.twitter.com/qtSFBYY80S
— Jeffrey Sachs (@JeffreyASachs) October 13, 2018
The article is, at heart, deeply weird, even essentialist. Here, for example, is the claim that proposing climate engineering is a "man" thing. Also a "man" thing: attempting to get distance from a topic, approaching it in a disinterested fashion.
Also a "man" thing—physical courage. (I guess, not quite: physical courage "co-constitutes" masculinist glaciology along with nationalism and colonialism.)
There's criticism of a New York Times article that talks about glaciology adventures, which makes a similar point.
At the heart of this chunk is the claim that glaciology excludes women because of a narrative of scientific objectivity and physical adventure. This is a strong claim! It's not enough to say, hey, sure, sounds good. Is it true?
