1/ Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts (Annie Duke)

Thread

"World-class poker players taught me to understand what a bet really is: a decision about an uncertain future."

https://t.co/Nr2zCrVve3

2/ "We can get better at separating outcome quality from decision quality, say “I’m not sure,” learn strategies to map out the future, become less reactive, build and sustain pods of fellow truthseekers, and recruit our past and future selves to make fewer emotional decisions."

3/ "Mistakes, emotions, losing—those things are all inevitable because we are human. The approach of thinking in bets moved me toward objectivity, accuracy, and open-mindedness. That movement compounds over time to create significant changes in our lives."

4/ "Most people didn’t want to give Carroll credit for having any reason at all for his call. Why did so many people so strongly believe he got it wrong?

"In four words: the play didn't work.

"He had control over the quality of the decision but not over how it turned out."

5/ "Hindsight bias is the tendency, after an outcome is known, to see the outcome as having been inevitable. When we say, “I should have known,” or, “I should have seen it coming,” we are succumbing to hindsight bias: an overly tight connection between outcomes and decisions."

1/ Two Meals a Day (Mark Sisson and Brad Kearns)

"When you can burn body fat and make ketones at any time and your appetite and satiety hormones are optimized, you don’t need as much food.

"Metabolic efficiency drives longevity."

https://t.co/g3U1gVEsNE

2/ "Whenever you eat anything, even the “fat bombs” (homemade high-fat snack foods) favored by the keto community, burning stored body fat (along with the manufacturing of ketones in the liver) ceases abruptly while you process the ingested calories."

3/ "The lifestyle essentials include increasing all forms of general everyday movement (especially frequent breaks from prolonged periods of stillness), following a sensible exercise program (including brief, high-intensity efforts)...

4/ "implementing superb sleep habits (which helps lower stress hormones and regulate appetite and satiety hormones), and setting aside time every day to unwind and unplug from hyperconnectivity."

5/ "Keeping a written journal provides long-term benefits, including better emotional regulation, self-awareness, & self-confidence; lower inflammation, blood pressure, & stress hormone levels; and better insulin sensitivity, liver function, lung function, & immune cell activity.

1/ What Happens with More Funds than Stocks? (Madhavan, Sobczyk, Ang)

"Funds differ meaningfully in terms of individual stock holdings, and we examine the factor exposures of the typical fund and the cross section of holdings of different funds."

https://t.co/d6vU4Fgszg

2/ * Data on fund holdings are from Morningstar
* Sample: Jan. 1, 2007 to Dec. 31, 2018
* Only funds with at least 80% of holdings from the Russell 3000 universe are considered
* Mean AUM-weighted expense ratio for mutual funds (ETFs) is 70 bps (14.2 bps) as of Q4 2018

3/ "The holdings of ETFs and active mutual funds across U.S. stocks can be efficiently summarized by approximately 10 canonical funds.

"There is more commonality explained by the first few canonical funds for active mutual funds than for ETFs."

4/ "Commonality among equity mutual funds has remained approximately constant, but there has been increased dispersion in ETF offerings.

"We see no apparent rise in concentration or crowding for mutual funds over the period from January 2007 to December 2018."

5/ "We examine commonality in active mutual funds in Morningstar style box categories. While Value and Blend commonality has remained roughly constant over the period 2007-2018, Growth funds have exhibited a marked increase in crowded positions."