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1/12 Valuing a Disruptive Businesses: Naked Wines ($WINE) Case Study. In my intro last week, I promised examples of using ROIIC & reinvestment rate to value disruptors. $WINE is an eComm D2C wine model with SaaS-like outcomes. EXCELLENT DISCLOSURE makes it a good case study

It began as an online wine retailer with many SKUs/low loyalty, but then pivoted at a pivotal moment when a top exec realized a cohort of consumers were super loyal – those that enjoyed supporting independent winemakers. @_inpractise Feast your eyes on this glorious disclosure:

Naked Wines is forecast to report approximately zero EBIT this year. As we will see, the company is not worth zero, nor does it mean Value Investors are allowed to cavalierly toss it in the “too hard” pile. Here’s a way to value Naked Wines with discipline:

Variable (1): $WINE discloses Standstill EBIT, boosted by COVID. Loyalty of $WINE’s “angels” makes EBIT stickier than some other eComms. Astute SaaS observers will note revenue retention (I assume ~78% on avg) is below B2B SaaS (95-130%). My standstill NPV implies 6.3x EV/EBIT.

Variable (2): A disclosure triumph. If slides could talk, “we reject simpleton requests to under-invest & produce 123% IRR for shareholders that truly like value creation.” Value investors, note what the V stands for in LTV. PV it. I assume payback holds 5 yrs, then slow decay

Variable (3): Do they have a chart for fixed costs along with a medium-term guidance that seems logical? Yes…yes, they do! They target fixed cost growth to be half of revenue growth.

Variable (4): As for the full maturity stub, be very careful with double-counting the value already within your high IRR CAC spend valuation in (2), but this is the smallest component in my appraisal of $WINE’s value, so let’s use our time wisely.

My output: (1)+(2)-(3)+(4) = 303m + 486m - 130m + 53m = 713m EV. This implies a warranted multiple of 6.3x EV/GP on current year. If you tend to viscerally avoid researching zero EBIT companies, consider that the high IRR CAC spending program (2) is largest part of my value!

123% IRR (2016 cohort actual) AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE PLEASE. Even insufferably holier-than-thou value investors wielding “doesn’t make any money” gibberish (I’m guilty) might agree that $WINE chooses to spend. Or would we rather they under-invest to make our models simpler?

“So, great, one scaling small cap gives you enough detail to value it. Congratulations, champ. Wake me when you’ve found a way to replicate this on other names,” says Mr. Dinosaur Value Guy, irritated after a call with a decade-long client asking for a $200m redemption.

Cheer up, Dino, and WAKE UP, we can replicate this on many names. Your valuation discipline is rightfully non-negotiable. See that meteor in the sky that looks like a @blackrock hellbent on creative destruction? Let’s do something about it: https://t.co/Wyr7F0EQK7

12/Upcoming research: Value Investors, I write provocatively to rattle some cages that need it, including my own. But a simple cheap stock can still be attractive in this market, especially with catalysts. Next is a cheap global #1 with 40-50% market share w/ 2 catalysts. /end

@Greenbackd @Symmetry_Invest @modestproposal1 @mjmauboussin @mario_cibelli @SuperMugatu @Post_Market @aaronvalue @goodinvestingc @marketplunger1 @MarcRuby @CCM_Ryan @ruth_proactive @proactive_UK

@IPafbahia @pommelhorse9 @jesperhenrikson @still_ill______ @antoniofbahia @NorthmanTrader @trailmakercap @Lawbitrage

More from Trading

antifa.drone
@antifa_drone

Fake chats claiming to be from the Irish African community are being disseminated by the far right in order to suggest that violence is imminent from #BLM supporters. This is straight out of the QAnon and Proud Boys playbook. Spread the word. Protest safely. #georgenkencho

There is co-ordination across the far right in Ireland now to stir both left and right in the hopes of creating a race war. Think critically! Fascists see the tragic killing of #georgenkencho, the grief of his community and pending investigation as a flashpoint for action.

Across Telegram, Twitter and Facebook disinformation is being peddled on the back of these tragic events. From false photographs to the tactics ofwhite supremacy, the far right is clumsily trying to drive hate against minority groups and figureheads.

Be aware, the images the #farright are sharing in the hopes of starting a race war, are not of the SPAR employee that was punched. They\u2019re older photos of a Everton fan. Be aware of the information you\u2019re sharing and that it may be false. Always #factcheck #GeorgeNkencho pic.twitter.com/4c9w4CMk5h
— antifa.drone (@antifa_drone) December 31, 2020

Declan Ganley’s Burkean group and the incel wing of National Party (Gearóid Murphy, Mick O’Keeffe & Co.) as well as all the usuals are concerted in their efforts to demonstrate their white supremacist cred. The quiet parts are today being said out loud.

There is a concerted effort in far-right Telegram groups to try and incite violence on street by targetting people for racist online abuse following the killing of George Nkencho

This follows on and is part of a misinformation campaign to polarise communities at this time.
— Mark Malone (@soundmigration) January 1, 2021

The best thing you can do is challenge disinformation and report posts where engagement isn’t appropriate. Many of these are blatantly racist posts designed to drive recruitment to NP and other Nationalist groups. By all means protest but stay safe.

Trader knight
@Traderknight007

Three things which will make a difference in Your trading Results.

A thread-

1. Clarity- When the mind is free from fear and ego

The first step to successful trading is to be clear about everything you do.

BUT, the reality is that most traders don't even know what they are doing.

And because of this-

They don't have any goals.
They don't have any Trading plan
They don't know what is suitable for them
And the list goes, on and on.

If you are among the people as described above, don't worry, There is nothing wrong with you, almost 90% of Traders are like that.

So, what do you have to do to get CLARITY in your Trading-

Find one style that is suitable to your personality and double down on it.

Why?

In this world where we have plethora of information just one click away, most people are distracted and see a Glowy thing every time they go over the social media.

They Find something new every now and then, jumping from one strategy to another, searching for Holy grail.

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Trader knight
@Traderknight007

A thread on SCALING IN - OUT METHOD -

What is scaling in - out?

1. Scaling in is adding on to the positions when they move in our favor (Pyramiding).

2. Scaling - out is exiting the portion of the position when the trade moves in our favor.

I have explained about pyramiding in previous tweets.

// Why use scaling out instead of exiting all position at once ?

When you are using ALL - out method where you exit positions at once, mostly you use wider Trail SL as you want to capture big moves and exit all when trail sl hits.

The problem with this method is that either you make too big or many times your medium size winners turns out to become Scratch trades.

So, when we use the scaling out method, we are trying to capture most of our medium size trades , so that they do not turn into scratch trades.

// How to use scaling out method -

Say we have to got a signal to enter in a trade, and we have to buy 1200 qty according to our Position sizing.

So, we have to divide this 1200 qty into parts, how much? It depends on you.

We can divide into 3 parts, each part 400 qty.

Nikita Poojary
@niki_poojary

We have shared a lot of threads exclusively on Subasish Pani in the past year.

As this year comes to an end, here are the 11 most powerful threads on Subasish Pani exclusively compiled for you all.

Collborated with @AdityaTodmal

1/ Important concepts from Power of Stocks - Subasish

Important Concepts from Power of Stocks\u2014 Subhasish Pani

7+ years of trading experience in 14 tweets\U0001f9f5

Collaborated with @niki_poojary
— Aditya Todmal (@AdityaTodmal) August 12, 2022

2/ Important concepts with video links of Subasish

There are plenty of videos of Subhasish Pani from Power of Stocks.

You already know those.

Instead, here are 12 concepts from his videos that will make you a better trader\u2013\u2013not worse:\U0001f9f5

Collaborated with @niki_poojary
— Aditya Todmal (@AdityaTodmal) April 17, 2022

3/ The 5 EMA

Subasish Pani revealed the most simple, yet successful strategy: 5EMA set up!

Here is a thread of 23 video clips on the 5EMA set-up that will save you hundreds of hours and available to you for no cost!

5EMA set-up: \U0001f9f5!

Collaborated with @AdityaTodmal
— Nikita Poojary (@niki_poojary) July 3, 2022

4/ The Bollinger Band set-

A set up which has a minimum Risk/Reward (R/R) of 1:4

This set up can be used for intraday, option selling, option buying, as well as investing.

Maximum profit strategy by Subasish Pani.

Bollinger band set-up: \U0001f9f5!

Collaborated with @AdityaTodmal pic.twitter.com/aEIUVQF2XY
— Nikita Poojary (@niki_poojary) October 2, 2022

Aditya Todmal
@AdityaTodmal

12 TRADING SETUPS used by professional traders:🧵

Collaborated with @niki_poojary

Here's what you'll learn in this thread:

1. Capture Overnight Theta Decay
2. Trading Opening Range Breakouts
3. Reversal Trading Setups
4. Selling strangles and straddles in Bank Nifty
6. NR4 + IB
7. NR 21-Vwap Strategy

Let's dive in ↓

1/ STBT option Selling (Positional Setup):

The setup uses price action to sell options for overnight theta decay.

Check Bank Nifty at 3:15 everyday.

Sell directional credit spreads with capped

A thread about STBT options selling,

The purpose is simple to capture overnight theta decay,

Generally, ppl sell ATM straddle with hedge or sell naked options,

But I am using Today\u2019s price action for selling options in STBT,

(1/n)
— Jig's Patel (@jigspatel1988) July 17, 2021

@jigspatel1988 2/ Selling Strangles in Bank Nifty based on Open Interest Data

Don't trade till 9:45 Am.

Identify the highest OI on puts and calls.

Check combined premium and put a stop on individual

Thread on
"Intraday Banknifty Strangle based on OI data"

(System already shared, today just share few examples)
(1/n)
— Jig's Patel (@jigspatel1988) July 4, 2021

@jigspatel1988 3/ Open Drive (Intraday)

This is an opening range breakout setup with a few conditions.

To be used when the market opens above yesterday's day high

or Below yesterday's day's

#OpenDrive #intradaySetup

Sharing one high probability trending setup for intraday.

Few conditions needs to be met
1. Opening should be above/below previous day high/low for buy/sell setup.
2. Open=low (for buy)
Open=high (for sell)

(1/n)
— Pathik (@Pathik_Trader) April 16, 2019

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UN Watch
@UNWatch

The UN just voted to condemn Israel 9 times, and the rest of the world 0.

View the resolutions and voting results here:

The resolution titled "The occupied Syrian Golan," which condemns Israel for "repressive measures" against Syrian citizens in the Golan Heights, was adopted by a vote of 151 - 2 - 14.

Israel and the U.S. voted 'No' https://t.co/HoO7oz0dwr

The resolution titled "Israeli practices affecting the human rights of the Palestinian people..." was adopted by a vote of 153 - 6 - 9.

Australia, Canada, Israel, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, and the U.S. voted 'No' https://t.co/1Ntpi7Vqab

The resolution titled "Israeli settlements in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusalem, and the occupied Syrian Golan" was adopted by a vote of 153 – 5 – 10.

Canada, Israel, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, and the U.S. voted 'No'
https://t.co/REumYgyRuF

The resolution titled "Applicability of the Geneva Convention... to the
Occupied Palestinian Territory..." was adopted by a vote of 154 - 5 - 8.

Canada, Israel, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, and the U.S. voted 'No'
https://t.co/xDAeS9K1kW

$Anu Satheesh \U0001f1ee\U0001f1f3$

Anu Satheesh 🇮🇳...
@AnuSatheesh5

Magudeswarar Temple, Kodumudi
#Erode
#Tamilnadutemples 🚩

Situated on the banks of the river Kaveri, Magudeswarar Temple is one among Paadal Petra Shiva Sthalam. Kshetram is famous Parihara Sthala for Naga Dosham and for performing Tarpanam to the departed souls.

There are 3 sannidhi here for Paramashiva, Mahavishnu and Brahma Deva.

Sthala Puranam says that once Adisesha and Vayu Deva placed Meru parvat at the centre to decide who is stronger among them. Parvatam was held tightly by Adisesha and Vayu blew the wind to push Parvatham.

In this struggle, peak of meru parvatham broke into 7 pieces and fell in different places as precious gems. Diamond fell at Kodumudi as Magudeswarar. Panchamirtham abhishekam is very famous here. Vanni tree situated here is very old which contains medicinal values.

It is believed that Agasthiya Muni did Prathishta of Shiva Lingam here. As Adisesha is one of the reason for creation of the temple, this is famous Parihara Sthalam for Naga Dosham. It is believed that those who

who take a bath in the river Kaveri and worship paramashiva and mahavishnu, will be cured of diseases and will get relief from all illness.

Om Namah Shivaye
Om Namo Narayanaya
🙏🕉🙏

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$Vibhu Vashisth \U0001f1ee\U0001f1f3$

Vibhu Vashisth 🇮🇳...
@VIBHU_Tweet

Did you know?

Rani Bhabani was the Queen of Natore, Bengal or 'Natorer Rani' as she was famously called. She made great contributions in Tarapith & renovated Benaras.

In Varanasi, Durga Kund Mandir was constructed by Rani Bhabani in the 18th century.

Born in Chhatimgram village, Bogra District,Her father's name was Atmaram Choudhury.Bhabani was married off to Raja Ramkanta Moitra,the then zamindar of Rajshahi.After his death, Bhabani became the zamindar, and started being referred to as Rani.She was known as Ardhabangeshwari.

A woman as a zamindar was extremely rare in those days, but Rani Bhabani managed the vast Rajshahi zamindari most efficiently and effectively for over four decades.
Maharani Bhavani was very pious in her personal life. She passed her life in a strict disciplined way.

She conducted the administrative work skillfully. As a Maharani she was an impartial judge. Rani Bhavani had a very hard time during the fag end of her life. The Zamindari (estate) incurred serious loss due to the change of the revenue policy of the company.

In spite of being the owner of a large Zamindari (estate), she had to depend on the stipend of the government in the later part of her life. The amount of this stipend gradually decreased and became Rs. 1000/- only in the end.

Jaya_Upadhyaya
@Jayalko1

MEENAKSHI AMMAN, MADURAI (TN)
#bharatmandir #navratri2021

A paadal Petra sthalam where Shiva took the form of Sundareswarar (the handsome one) and married Devi Parvati (Meenakshi).
Devi is also known by the name Angayarkanni (mother with the beautiful fish eyes).
@GunduHuDuGa

Devi Meenakshi emerged from yagna fire as a 3 year old girl when Pandyan King Malayadwaja and Kanchanamalai were praying for a child.
It is said that Devi was born with three breasts and there was a prophesy that her superfluous breast would melt away when she met her husband.

Devi ruled over Madurai and captured Indralok. She went on to capture Kailasha. When she saw Shiva, her 3rd breast disappeared and she realised that Shiva would be her consort.
The divine marriage was attended by all Devas and Sri Vishnu (as her brother) gave her hand to Shiva.

It is said that Indra found a swayambhu lingam at Kadamba Vanam. He placed it in Madurai where the kshetram stands. Here, Shiva is seen on the vehicle of Indra.
The Golden Lotus Tank is said to be the place where a golden lotus blossomed for the puja performed by Indra.

The Meenakshi Thirukalyanam festival is celebrated in the Chithirai month to mark the divine marriage of Meenakshi Amman. The festival includes a procession where Meenakshi and Sundareshwara travel in a chariot and Sri Vishnu gives away his sister in marriage to Shiva.

Dr Catherine Pemble is...
@CatherinePemble

Right, screw it. Here's a thread on *that* FBLive by Alex Cairnie about #Govanhill. Lets do a watch-through shall we? (Mind, I'm a resident of Govanhill, and a sociologist. I'm also 5'3, and a visibly queer woman so if half his claims are true I should be living in terror)

00:30: Welcomes viewers and uses points out that his videos are only getting attention b/c they're 'horrific'. Directs folk to his Youtube page. So already clout hunting.

1:08: "I've been warned to stay out of Govanhill. I'm a marked man" (proceeds to use a beanie as a disguise)

1:30 "Laughing and joking aside, here's somebodys front garden." Proceeds to show litter and claim its thrown from windows and this is 'common'. I know a handful of streets with litter issues like this, but its neither common nor unique to #govanhill and other deprived areas.

2:10 "Don't be under any illusion I'm only showing you the bad bits" - only shows you the bad bits.

3:45: He's had offers of help, but hes said no because hes not responsible for 'anybody elses safety' Good lord.

5:01: "Its not that bad. But its not all good either" -Correct

6:00: TW: child abuse - He starts claiming to have been contacted by a health professional and told about child abuse 'in the area'. Huge ethical issues here as the 'professional' who has 'been in the game a long time' is reporting to Facebook Dude and not authorities.

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