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Flywheel Research
@flywheelfunds 5 years, 10 months ago 1252 views

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1/12 Valuing a Disruptive Businesses: Naked Wines ($WINE) Case Study. In my intro last week, I promised examples of using ROIIC & reinvestment rate to value disruptors. $WINE is an eComm D2C wine model with SaaS-like outcomes. EXCELLENT DISCLOSURE makes it a good case study

It began as an online wine retailer with many SKUs/low loyalty, but then pivoted at a pivotal moment when a top exec realized a cohort of consumers were super loyal – those that enjoyed supporting independent winemakers. @_inpractise Feast your eyes on this glorious disclosure:

Naked Wines is forecast to report approximately zero EBIT this year. As we will see, the company is not worth zero, nor does it mean Value Investors are allowed to cavalierly toss it in the “too hard” pile. Here’s a way to value Naked Wines with discipline:

Variable (1): $WINE discloses Standstill EBIT, boosted by COVID. Loyalty of $WINE’s “angels” makes EBIT stickier than some other eComms. Astute SaaS observers will note revenue retention (I assume ~78% on avg) is below B2B SaaS (95-130%). My standstill NPV implies 6.3x EV/EBIT.

Variable (2): A disclosure triumph. If slides could talk, “we reject simpleton requests to under-invest & produce 123% IRR for shareholders that truly like value creation.” Value investors, note what the V stands for in LTV. PV it. I assume payback holds 5 yrs, then slow decay

Variable (3): Do they have a chart for fixed costs along with a medium-term guidance that seems logical? Yes…yes, they do! They target fixed cost growth to be half of revenue growth.

Variable (4): As for the full maturity stub, be very careful with double-counting the value already within your high IRR CAC spend valuation in (2), but this is the smallest component in my appraisal of $WINE’s value, so let’s use our time wisely.

My output: (1)+(2)-(3)+(4) = 303m + 486m - 130m + 53m = 713m EV. This implies a warranted multiple of 6.3x EV/GP on current year. If you tend to viscerally avoid researching zero EBIT companies, consider that the high IRR CAC spending program (2) is largest part of my value!

123% IRR (2016 cohort actual) AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE PLEASE. Even insufferably holier-than-thou value investors wielding “doesn’t make any money” gibberish (I’m guilty) might agree that $WINE chooses to spend. Or would we rather they under-invest to make our models simpler?

“So, great, one scaling small cap gives you enough detail to value it. Congratulations, champ. Wake me when you’ve found a way to replicate this on other names,” says Mr. Dinosaur Value Guy, irritated after a call with a decade-long client asking for a $200m redemption.

Cheer up, Dino, and WAKE UP, we can replicate this on many names. Your valuation discipline is rightfully non-negotiable. See that meteor in the sky that looks like a @blackrock hellbent on creative destruction? Let’s do something about it: https://t.co/Wyr7F0EQK7

12/Upcoming research: Value Investors, I write provocatively to rattle some cages that need it, including my own. But a simple cheap stock can still be attractive in this market, especially with catalysts. Next is a cheap global #1 with 40-50% market share w/ 2 catalysts. /end

@Greenbackd @Symmetry_Invest @modestproposal1 @mjmauboussin @mario_cibelli @SuperMugatu @Post_Market @aaronvalue @goodinvestingc @marketplunger1 @MarcRuby @CCM_Ryan @ruth_proactive @proactive_UK

@IPafbahia @pommelhorse9 @jesperhenrikson @still_ill______ @antoniofbahia @NorthmanTrader @trailmakercap @Lawbitrage

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$Edwin Hayward \U0001f984 \U0001f5e1$

Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡...
@uk_domain_names

Here's how the UK's situation will change after the transition period ends, compared to our former EU membership...

(Come back to this thread. It will keep growing!)

- UK can negotiate its own trade deals
- No more automatic participation in new trade deals reached by the EU

- UK gets to keep fish equivalent to 25% of the catch EU boats previously caught in UK waters, staggered over 5.5 years
- Costly export health certificates for fishery products
- Inbound and outbound customs and regulatory checks (UK side will defer some of these temporarily)

- Stringent rules of origin and local content requirements
- Loss of freedom of movement for UK citizens in the EU and EU citizens in the UK (Ireland excepted)
- No Erasmus programme
- No equivalence decision for financial services

- A border down the Irish sea between NI & GB
- No access to the Galileo military
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- 2 parallel product conformity assessment systems (CE and UKCA), requiring firms to file twice in the UK and the EU. One year grace period (with exceptions).
- 2 parallel chemical regulatory systems (REACH and UK REACH), requiring firms to register twice in the UK and the EU

Trader knight
@Traderknight007

A thread on SCALING IN - OUT METHOD -

What is scaling in - out?

1. Scaling in is adding on to the positions when they move in our favor (Pyramiding).

2. Scaling - out is exiting the portion of the position when the trade moves in our favor.

I have explained about pyramiding in previous tweets.

// Why use scaling out instead of exiting all position at once ?

When you are using ALL - out method where you exit positions at once, mostly you use wider Trail SL as you want to capture big moves and exit all when trail sl hits.

The problem with this method is that either you make too big or many times your medium size winners turns out to become Scratch trades.

So, when we use the scaling out method, we are trying to capture most of our medium size trades , so that they do not turn into scratch trades.

// How to use scaling out method -

Say we have to got a signal to enter in a trade, and we have to buy 1200 qty according to our Position sizing.

So, we have to divide this 1200 qty into parts, how much? It depends on you.

We can divide into 3 parts, each part 400 qty.

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Abhishek Kar
@Abhishekkar_

𝐓𝐡𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐎𝐩𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬
The entire thread will have some quick pointers on options trading. These bullet points are based on experience and learning and even if you are completely new,will help you to build some perspective. So,lets go :

-When new,prefer trading monthly options over weekly options to reduce risk
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-Don’t adjust losing defined risk strategies. A lot of people get into the bad habit of averaging and run the risk of losing a lot
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Anon
@AnonTrader21

A thread on getting intraday (any timeframe) data to excel without any coding. Limited to only last 60 days. Fetches from zerodha chart.

👇

1. Open the chart on zerodha web in chrome. Right click and select 'Inspect'. Click 'Network' as shown in this pic.

2. Right click on the last entry on the table you see and click 'copy as cURL (bash)'

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4. The output below candles written on right of box is the ohlc, volume and oi data. Copy and paste to excel.

JayneshKasliwal
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𝗡𝗶𝗳𝘁𝘆-𝗕𝗮𝗻𝗸𝗻𝗶𝗳𝘁𝘆 𝗢𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗕𝘂𝘆𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝘆

Complete Backtest and Indicator link

🧵 A Thread 🧵

𝗦𝗲𝘁𝘂𝗽:
🔸 Monthly Option Buying
🔸 50 ema on 3 min timeframe
🔸 Supertrend 10 , 3
🔸 Chart : Banknifty , Nifty Futures as we backtested on futures
🔸 Entry 9:20 to 3:00
🔸 Max 3 Entries per day
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Why Monthly Option buying ?
🔸 Less theta decay compared to weekly options
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🔸 Supertrend and MA Settings
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🔸 Indicator Link
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🔸 https://t.co/zVXavqLBto
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@VIBHU_Tweet

Do you know?

The Golden Shine on the artificial jewellery of modern times is a gift by Nagarjuna.

Now,u might be wondering,who is Nagarjuna?

Nagarjuna was the name of an ancient Indian scholar&scientist whose name is associated with the fields of Alchemy,Chemistry& Metallurgy.

He conducted a number of alchemic and Metallurgical experiments directed towards transforming base elements into Gold.
According to Eduard Sachau's Alberuni's India, Nagarjuna was termed as a Metallurgist who was born 100 yrs before Alberuni's time, who was born in 973 CE.

According to some records Nagarjuna was born in 9th century CE near Somnath,Gujarat and according to some Tibetan & Chinese sources he was born in Vidarbha,Maharashtra from where he later migrated to Deccan region.

Edward Schau quotes in his book,'They have a science similar to Alchemy and Nagarjuna is famous for this science which they call as 'Rasayana'.

Nagarjuna's book 'Rasaratnakara' is one of the earliest documented texts on Alchemy,Chemistry & Metallurgy in Sanskrit.Nagarjuna successfully discovered through his experiments the alchemy of transmutation of base metals into Gold.This was not real gold but a gold like substance.

WAKE UP AUSTRALIA WAKE...
@WakeAustralia

Facebook originally a CIA program called "LifeLog".
LifeLog, via DARPA, terminated on Feb 4th, 2004.
Facebook was launched on Feb 4th, 2004.
Many of the LifeLog team became execs at FB.
Zuckerberg is a figurehead.
CIA allowed Cambridge to help Trump win

https://t.co/enzOXDCogV

Project: Lifelog

Started by DARPA in 1999, the goal of Lifelog was to create a database on civilians without their knowledge, and track everything they do.

The project "ended" on Feb 4th, 2004.
Facebook began the exact same day.

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Pentagon Kills LifeLog

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Khatvaanga
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Starting my 2nd thread on Sringeri Parampara. This will cover the Jagadgurus after Sri Vidyaranya to Sri Shivabhinava Nrisimha Bharati.

It is really very tough to match the brilliance and achievements of Vidyaranya. After whom came 15 - Chandrashekara Bharati [1386-1389].

The next Acharya was Nrisimha Bharati [1389-1408]. Harihara raya found a town for this Acharya - Narasimhapuram. Acharya helped the king by guiding him in political affairs. He also initiated the kind with mahamantras for spiritual development.

Subsequent Acharyas were
15-Puroshottama Bharati [1408 - 1448]
16-Shankara Bharati[1448 - 1455]
17-Chandrasekhara Bharati II [1455 - 1464]
18- Nrisimha Bharati II [1464 - 1479]
19-Puroshottama Bharati II [1479 - 1517]

20-Ramachandra Bharati [1517 - 1560]. Sadashiva Raya was emporer of Vijayanagara during this time.
21-Nrisimha Bharati III [1560 - 1573]
22-Nrisimha Bharati IV [1573 - 1576]
23-Nrisimha Bharati V [1576 - 1600]

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Tweeting Historians
@Tweetistorian

@ChenHuailun here. I'm adding a supplementary thread before today's scheduled one to expand on the origins and early history of the Church of the East (aka the Nestorian Church) ~ahc #jingjiao 1/

The Church of the East traces its origins to the christological position of the School of Antioch, which held that the human and divine and human essences (ουσία) of Christ were united in a single prosopon (πρόσωπον). ~ahc #jingjiao 2/

This ran against the position of the School of Alexandria, which held that the two essences of Christ were united in a single hypostasis (ὑπόστασις). In general terms, hypostasis is more inherent than prosopon. ~ahc #jingjiao 3/

One implication of the Antiochene rejection of the hypostatic union is that Mary could not accurately be called the Theotokos, or God-bearer. Instead, she is the Christotokos, the Christ-bearer. ~ahc #jingjiao 4/

These Christological debates were further complicated by Syriac terms such as 'kyana' (ܟܝܢܐ), associated with 'ousia' but later translated to 'hypostasis' by Syrian Orthodox; and 'qnoma ' (ܩܢܘܡܐ), sometimes contentiously translated as 'hypostasis' or 'person.' ~ahc #jingjiao 5/

Learner Vivek Bajaj
@vivbajaj

My System for momentum trading🧵:

1. Stock Identification:

Daily and Weekly Delivery Analysis using @mystockedge
Theme Confirmation using Internet and Network

2. Stock Confirmation:

Relative Strength of a stock visavis market using RS55 model listed in @mystockedge

1/n

3. Stock Participation:

Only when chart showing short term breakout along with RS55>0 and RSI>50. I am ready to leave some initial movements.

4. Position buildup:

Every time the stock gives a breakout from the previous swing high add more position and go all-in.

2/n

5. Stock Exit:

I run two portfolios: Short term Swing and Long term Swing.

For Exit in Short term swings, I use a 2hourly Chart with super trend and RS. I am using @tradingview for the same.

For long term swing, I exit when the RS of the stock goes below 0. Period.

n/n

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