BC TRADING
Saved by @WebbDarrrel

https://t.co/Cqqb7aLZVp

 Gold and silver have been total dogs these last six months. BTC has just outperformed. I attribute this to Wil Self and his Quantity Theory of Insanity.
That there is, after all, a finite set of molecules in the universe of alternative assets - the last hold out for those seeking diversification.
My interpretation is that investing in this sector is analogous to growing followers on my Instagram account - that just as one group’s starting to get it another are unsubscribing...
In this world, and maybe it’s just for the moment, but Peter gotta pay Paul, ‘cause there’s only a limited amount of sanity remaining in the world. So, when @ScottMinerd says theoretically BTC can go to $400k, i.e., 10 x higher than now...
I think that until the bomb goes off, that hypothesis requires XAU to go to zero Me? I’ve always figured that the only reason people go mad is because somebody’s gotta...right?
So, I think there’s been switching from gold and silver to BTC. I got friends who did this for sure, this cycle vs last time and I’m convinced the younger generation are all in BTC. I read somewhere that Grayscale Trust is one of the top ten securities bought by Millenials
...you got to think that if BTC existed back in the day, then I would have been buying such a bad ass in 2002. But back then, sticking it to the man meant buying the precious complex. Today we have variant pathways to insanity and all its turnpikes.
But the weird right here, right now, is the price action and correlations – if we do have to leave insanity city for a moment, then gold and silvers’ performance of late makes more sense
– they topped out when US real rates bottomed and have struggled ever since in being absolute/terrible vs SPX. Real rate comparison charts sans a Bloomberg terminal are a stretch but the gold TLT chart is not a bad stand-in
And yet BTC has surged, and from a pure macro perspective maybe that shouldn’t have happened? Shouldn’t performance be identical in terms of factor analysis?? I’m just asking the question...
Instead, of late, BTC has correlated with TSLA. Like
I said, borrowing from fields further away, BTC at this juncture, has the conscience temper of a savage autocrat spoiled by too much adulation...
The real test of your understanding and investment success is when you CAN buy something after it’s been kicked in the teeth by the mob rather than held aloft and carried high on the shoulders of an adoring mass. I’ll take my chances that BTC pulls back.
Talking of which, silver more than gold –a prize fighter in a corner is told, hit where it hurts yeah baby, silver more than gold... apologies Bono
The industrial narrative of the supply/demand balance in silver has switched and now works with us nutters and not against us like it did in the 2000s.
Retail’s always long. Good on you! But in the 2000s one of the main industrial applications for silver was photographic related demand which was declining as digital took over.
For those institutional investors that seek a leitmotif to justify their actions – me? I just buy things going up - it was almost impossible to get behind and properly invest in such a whimsical investment
– but now you need silver for solar power & the circuit boards in electric vehicles etc - Whimsical squared?  I think you’ve got a green light to be as mischievous as you dare be...
So BTC I’ll take my chances and await a moment of less idolatry - I got my SBH real estate after all and then gold for whimsy and silver for whimsy squared...bonne dimanche !

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Sahil Bloom
Sahil Bloom
@SahilBloom
Circle of Competence 101

Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger often reference the importance of knowing the boundaries of your circle of competence.

But what is a Circle of Competence and how does it work?

Here's Circle of Competence 101!


1/ First, a few definitions.

A Circle of Competence is the set of topic areas that align with a person's expertise.

If the entire world of information were to be expressed in a circle, an individual's Circle of Competence is the small sub-circle that represents their expertise.


2/ The idea surfaced in the 1996 BH annual letter.

"You don’t have to be an expert on every company...you only have to be able to evaluate companies within your circle of competence. The size of that circle is not very important; knowing its boundaries, however, is vital."


3/ A Circle of Competence is built over time.

It is built through experience, reading, dedicated study, and effort.

It is dynamic, not static.

It can expand as you deepen your knowledge in new areas. It can contract if you fail to nurture your existing areas of expertise.

4/ To engage this mental model in your life, there are two key processes to go through:

(1) Identify what falls within your circle
(2) Identify the boundaries of your circle

(1) is all about figuring out what you know, while (2) is about humbly admitting what you don’t.
TRADING
Yogeeswar Pal
Yogeeswar Pal
@yogeeswarpal
A thread.

Earnings Trades Simplified.

Earnings announcements are public announcements that display a company’s earnings, or lack thereof. As the earnings announcement gets closer, implied volatility tends to increase. After earnings are announced,...

1/n

the uncertainty of what will happen diminishes, and usually we see a rapid decrease in implied volatility because of it. Because of this phenomena, we tend to stick to premium selling strategies when it comes to earnings plays. We can take advantage...

2/n

of the implied volatility crush by selling premium prior to the announcement, and buying it back after the announcement.

Earnings trades are not for everyone, as they involve high amounts of uncertainty and random movements.

3/n


Why Trade Earnings -

-Increase number of occurrences, many trades available so increases of our probability of profit.

-High IV opportunities

-Short term Binary event leading to drastic volatility crush.

4/n

Factors to consider when placing earnings trade -

1. Expected Move
2. When to place trade
3. Historical Moves
4. Strategies based on market conditions

5/n
TRADING , ALL
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Amrit Kummer
Amrit Kummer
@maqstik
Some observations and thoughts on ZILSwap: What went well, its impact on the $ZIL ecosystem and where we need to improve with some concrete plans that are being worked on. A thread:

👇

1/ ZILSwap was launched by @SwitcheoNetwork on Oct 5, 2020 (~2 months old). Soon after, we noticed for the first time, a flurry of ZRC-2 tokens (equiv. of ERC20s on $ZIL) getting launched on the network (even though the fungible token standard had been around for a while).

2/ The ability to provide a marketplace for people to exchange tokens was the trigger for deveopers to start issuing tokens and developing a token economy. In fact, there was a token for which, the entire supply was put on a ZILSwap pool w/o any team withholding.

3/ This was an extreme example of why a DEX was needed and the role it played in bootstrapping several tokens and respective token economies. Over 25 tokens are available on ZILSwap in the form of liquidity pools. The total pool size across all tokens is over USD 1 million.

4/ ZILSwap also made it possible for the first time for anyone to get access to $XSGD (the Singapore Dollar Stablecoin issued by @xfers). In fact $XSGD and $gZIL contribute the greatest proportion of the total pool.
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Aditya Todmal
Aditya Todmal
@AdityaTodmal
I gathered the best Youtube videos to learn Expiry trading for free.

If you want to master expiry trading, open this thread: 🧵

Collaborated with @niki_poojary

Here's what you'll find in this thread:

1. ATM strikes to zero
2. Big Gaps on Expiry Day
3. How to trade expiry when Nifty is behaving differently
4. Using Data points to trade expiry
5. Play for a flat move
6. How to profit post 3 pm exploiting the close price?

Let's go ↓

1. How to develop a framework to trade in ATM strikes on expiry day? Subhasish Pani on @vivbajaj Sir's channel.

One of call or put at ATM is going to go to zero.

Whichever is moving rapidly has a higher probability of going ATM/ITM. Sell the slower

2. How to trade a big gap up on expiry day?

If market bias is bullish and a gap-up happens, it comes for selling.

Can buy puts at the breakout of an inside candle as the market has a good probability of at least heading toward the previous day's

3. How to trade in Bank Nifty if it has already moved 160 points from its high to low by 11:30? @ThetaGainers

Sell near otms with double stop loss.

Avoid if stuck in a very small range.

Get out of both by 1
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Nikita Poojary
Nikita Poojary
@niki_poojary
We have shared a lot of threads exclusively on Subasish Pani in the past year.

As this year comes to an end, here are the 11 most powerful threads on Subasish Pani exclusively compiled for you all.

Collborated with @AdityaTodmal

1/ Important concepts from Power of Stocks - Subasish


2/ Important concepts with video links of Subasish


3/ The 5 EMA


4/ The Bollinger Band set-
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Mitesh Patel
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@Mitesh_Engr
Again sharing bank nifty intraday weekly straddle. How to play by selling straddle.
Mostly will work on Monday to Wednesday. Sometimes on Friday.
Why to pay your money to learn this if u can get it here.
U need only practice.
Let’s go.

Say bank nifty future is at 32000.
Sell both 32000 call and put.
Considering current volatile market lest say premium on Monday morning is 350 on both sides.
Sold with 700 points combine premium.
If bank nifty will trade in narrow range say +\- 100 hold it.
If moving 200 points

then exit previous sold straddle. Sell new one. Let’s say BN moved +200
Now sell 32200. If bank nifty will move here within range then u will get profit through theta decay. Follow same procedure for next 150-200 pts move.

This is only for single straddle sell position.

Now in second case sell three straddle. 31900/32000/32100
In case of 100 points move no need to change.
If 200 + then future is 32200.
Exit 31900 and sell 31200 straddle.
If moving another 100 then exit 32000 and sell 32300. Continue same with 100 points move.
If no move then

it will consolidate between 32000-32200 or 32100 to 32300 and u will get theta decay.

This is for normal move. Sudden big move may come anytime. So keep SL in system.
If u r selling at 350-350 then keep SL in system 475 for both legs.
Practice it. No need to attend webinar.
BNF , MPATELOPTIONSLEARNINGS , OPTIONSLEARNING
Anu Satheesh
Anu Satheesh
@AnuSatheesh5
Guruvayur Sri Krishna & Coconut with Horns.
#Krishnaleela
#Bhakthi
🕉
We’ve all grown up listening to stories of Shri Krishna. This one is a famous story of Shri Krishna in Guruvayur Temple, also called Dakshina Dwaraka.


There lived a villager who planted coconut saplings and had promised that he would offer the 'first coconut' from each of his coconut trees to "Guruvayurappan". When the trees started to yield coconuts, he collected the first coconut from all the trees in a sack 👇


and set forth to Guruvayur.

On the way he was stopped by a robber who asked all the items in the sack. The villager told the robber that the coconuts in the sack belonged to Guruvayurappan and so he was unable to hand it over.
@SriramKannan77 @Jayalko1


The robber with anger asked the villager "Is Guruvaurappan's coconut any different? Does it have horns ?".
Saying so the robber pulled the sack forcefully out of the villager's hand, and coconuts came out..👇


To their astonishment each and every coconut in the sack had horns! Even today, the coconut with horns are displayed in the temple for devotees to see.

Below Picture is not original, as we cannot take photos inside temple.
Hare Krishna
Guruvayurappa
🕉🕉🕉🕉🕉
Shubham
ALL
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Abigail See
Abigail See
@abigail_e_see
Can we control the output of neural generation systems?
Can we build a better chatbot using this control?
And what makes a good conversation anyway?

Check out the blog post for our NAACL paper:

https://t.co/UAAUxSeA0L

#AI #NLProc #DeepLearning #ConversationalAI @facebookai

This post got a little delayed since the paper's publication, but the intervening time has given me an opportunity to reflect.

So this post has some extra thoughts regarding more recent NLG developments - e.g., pretrained models like GPT(2), and the suitability of beam search.
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History Under Your Feet
History Under Your Fee...
@HUFToday
#TodayInHistory Ram Prasad Bismil,Ashfaqullah Khan and Roshan Singh are hanged in 1927, as they give up their life for the cause of freedom and inspire many a revolutionary. #LestWeForget


Shahjahanpur was a hub of revolution during the freedom struggle. Most of the revolutioaries in the North, were from this town. And among them, the most famous were two friends, whom destiny would bring together- Ram Prasad Bismil and Ashfaqullah Khan.

Ashfaqullah Khan was born at the turn of the 20th century on October 22, while Bismil was born 3 years earlier on June 11, in the same town. Both of them were excellent writers in Urdu and Hindi.

Both of them would come together under the Hindustan Republican Association, not to mention the fact that Ashfaq was an admirer of Bismil’s poetry, and became close friends with him on that account.

And both these men were hanged on the same date, December 19, 1927 for their involvement in the Kakori event. Two men from different religions, different backgrounds, yet destiny would bring them together.
HISTORY
Aditya Todmal
Aditya Todmal
@AdityaTodmal
The absolute best 15 scanners which experts are using.

Got these scanners from the following accounts:

1. @Pathik_Trader
2. @sanjufunda
3. @sanstocktrader
4. @SouravSenguptaI
5. @Rishikesh_ADX

Share for the benefit of everyone.

Listing all scanners from @Pathik_Trader Sir first.

1. Open

2. 80-20 Reversal Setup


3. Fake

4. Trapping Inside Bar (Positional Setup)
TECH , STOCKLEARNINGS , STOCKS


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