Any guesses what that represents?
That number is % over budget.
Since 1960, the Olympics have run over-budget by 172%.
And no Olympics have ever run under-budget.
The Olympic Games are controversial.
They're amazing for unity & entertainment.
But they're a horrible business.
THREAD: A story of billions in costs, misaligned incentives & crippling debt. 🧵
Any guesses what that represents?
That number is % over budget.
Since 1960, the Olympics have run over-budget by 172%.
And no Olympics have ever run under-budget.
Olympics: 172%
Mega dams: 90%
Trains: 45%
Bridge & tunnels: 34%
Roads: 20%
2013: bid projected $7.4 billion of costs
2019: official budget of $14.6 billion
2020: budget revised to $15.4 billion
2021: government auditors project total spending will be $28 billion.
At $28 billion, it's more than the GDP of:
- Uganda
- El Salvador
- Iceland
- Jamaica
- Madagascar
- Fiji
But the real question is why are host cities consistently HORRIBLE at staying within budget?
Time to find the answer.
Lack of optionality.
When you host the Olympics, you give up the right to do things your way.
1) You MUST stay on timeline
Forced to prioritize speed over savings
2) You MUST cover costs
Hosts are legally bound to all expenses
Poor expectation-setting.
Budgets should imply a final number.
But host cities treat budgets like down payments vs. final payments.
Host cities will bid for the Olympics with a budget that's like a down payment on a home.
And then many installments will follow.
It's called a "Blank Check," because no matter the cost, the host city will have to write it.
So, the Olympics are expensive AF.
Which leads to the second question...
Why do countries continue to bid on the Games?
Tokyo (2021):
• Expenses: $28 billion
• Revenue: $6.7 billion
London (2012):
• Expenses: $5.2 billion
• Revenue: $18 billion
Beijing (2008):
• Expenses: $40 billion
• Revenue: $3.6 billion
Bad incentives.
Countries get push from construction executives to bid on the games.
These companies get multi-billion dollar contracts if they win the bid.
They run economic impact studies to show how great Olympics can be for host countries.
But the studies are faulty & self-serving.
And, consultancies have 0 incentive to publish a negative study.
An attribution challenge.
Measuring long-term impact on a host country is very very difficult.
Brand Marketing = spending advertising $ to drive brand perception & consideration vs. immediate purchase
Ex: when Toyota spends on TV spots they're not expecting you to buy today
How do you know if a tourist's decision to visit Japan 10 years from now was driven by the 2021 Olympics?
You don't.
Like brand marketing, Olympics value attribution is hard.
1) Follow @businessbarista on Twitter for more business threads.
2) Listen to my podcast episode, which breaks down the business of the Olympics: https://t.co/3YlKP7F3bx
More from Alex Lieberman ☕️
Introducing "The Balloon Effect"
Many businesses & creators have experienced a similar pattern of success.
From @MrBeastYT and @MorningBrew to @oatly and @Rovio.
Let's break down what "The Balloon Effect" is and examples of it in real life.
Keep reading 👇
1/ What is "The Balloon Effect"?
It is a particular pattern of growth.
It is not Instagram's growth trajectory.
It is not https://t.co/5axsTUKek6's growth trajectory.
"The Balloon Effect" is defined by several years of hard work & grit complemented by slow, linear growth.
2/ And then one day, one month, or one quarter...everything changes.
A business hits a tipping point and its trajectory shifts entirely.
Gradual growth turns to exponential growth & your brand and your size explode.
Like a step function.
3/ Now, you're probably wondering.
Why is it called "The Balloon Effect"?
Because filling/popping a water balloon follows the exact pattern I just described (and so many businesses experience).
Long unsexy slog 👉 Exponential tipping point.
4/ Initially, you turn on the faucet & water takes up space in the empty balloon.
Through effort you open the faucet, yet the results are unexciting.
But it's what must be done for water (or growth) to happen at all.
It's not sexy, but it's necessary.
Many businesses & creators have experienced a similar pattern of success.
From @MrBeastYT and @MorningBrew to @oatly and @Rovio.
Let's break down what "The Balloon Effect" is and examples of it in real life.
Keep reading 👇
1/ What is "The Balloon Effect"?
It is a particular pattern of growth.
It is not Instagram's growth trajectory.
It is not https://t.co/5axsTUKek6's growth trajectory.
"The Balloon Effect" is defined by several years of hard work & grit complemented by slow, linear growth.
2/ And then one day, one month, or one quarter...everything changes.
A business hits a tipping point and its trajectory shifts entirely.
Gradual growth turns to exponential growth & your brand and your size explode.
Like a step function.
3/ Now, you're probably wondering.
Why is it called "The Balloon Effect"?
Because filling/popping a water balloon follows the exact pattern I just described (and so many businesses experience).
Long unsexy slog 👉 Exponential tipping point.
4/ Initially, you turn on the faucet & water takes up space in the empty balloon.
Through effort you open the faucet, yet the results are unexciting.
But it's what must be done for water (or growth) to happen at all.
It's not sexy, but it's necessary.
More from Thread
I have shared multiple information related to trading and investing through my historical data analysis by writing various articles, here's the master thread that contains all my work in one place.🧵
https://t.co/pc1jr1xBlI
https://t.co/KZJ1FKCXSp
https://t.co/pTnbkjVpr0
https://t.co/3QXmND1x6Y
https://t.co/pc1jr1xBlI
Am sharing my journey on how I started trading 15 years before when there was very limited resource. If you are a beginner who is looking to get started with Stock Market, this thread would be helpful.\U0001f9f5
— Kirubakaran Rajendran (@kirubaakaran) April 26, 2022
https://t.co/KZJ1FKCXSp
Many of my friends who work at Corporate culture are fed up with their work life, one question they keep asking me is how much money do I need to retire and live comfortably? Here\u2019s a short thread \U0001f9f5 pic.twitter.com/gNEOFOChlh
— Kirubakaran Rajendran (@kirubaakaran) May 24, 2022
https://t.co/pTnbkjVpr0
Year 2022 has been disastrous for many asset classes, the world economy is at 40 year high inflation. Are we headed for another stock market crash? Here's a detailed analysis. \U0001f9f5 pic.twitter.com/ZYch9yBHEq
— Kirubakaran Rajendran (@kirubaakaran) May 19, 2022
https://t.co/3QXmND1x6Y
I have closely observed FinNifty for couple of weeks and then started trading live since last 4 expiry. If you are looking to start trading with FinNifty weekly option then this thread might be of great help to you. \U0001f9f5
— Kirubakaran Rajendran (@kirubaakaran) July 12, 2022
This is a result of credit fueled big ticket purchases of which buying a home is a big component. No amount of saving will cover the housing EMIs payable over one year. To this, add EMIs of 1 or 2 cars, and you've monthly EMIs running into 1 Lakh+. Now, add monthly house-hold +
+ expense, school fee and other sundry expenses and suddenly, you'll find a family unable to sustain itself w/o cash-flow for even 3-4 months. And most important of them all -
HAVING ASSETS IS NOT SAME AS HAVING CASH.
+
+ From personal experience, I think this is what you need to do:
- Maintain between Rs 1-2 Lakhs in emergency cash at all times.
- Use your Credit Cards wisely. They can be good source of large credit in an emergency.
- Work out your monthly house-hold expenses and EMIs
+
- Build a cash-reserve to cover your household expenses for a 6-month or 1-year period.
- Consider food, electricity, mobile/internet, your kids school fee, fuel, rent etc.
- Then work out your EMI obligations and see what level of reserves you can create for them.
- Maintain+
+ this back-up fund in cash/near cash assets.
- So, that you can utilize them as per requirement and are not subject to market forces.
One thing I\u2019ve learnt from the Covid catastrophe is that the so many batch mates from engineering (and maybe b school) have no savings. So many people with like 20 years of really affluent work experience are two month\u2019s salary away from crowd funding to feed their families.
— Sidin (@sidin) July 9, 2021
+ expense, school fee and other sundry expenses and suddenly, you'll find a family unable to sustain itself w/o cash-flow for even 3-4 months. And most important of them all -
HAVING ASSETS IS NOT SAME AS HAVING CASH.
+
+ From personal experience, I think this is what you need to do:
- Maintain between Rs 1-2 Lakhs in emergency cash at all times.
- Use your Credit Cards wisely. They can be good source of large credit in an emergency.
- Work out your monthly house-hold expenses and EMIs
+
- Build a cash-reserve to cover your household expenses for a 6-month or 1-year period.
- Consider food, electricity, mobile/internet, your kids school fee, fuel, rent etc.
- Then work out your EMI obligations and see what level of reserves you can create for them.
- Maintain+
+ this back-up fund in cash/near cash assets.
- So, that you can utilize them as per requirement and are not subject to market forces.
Lifelong learning is a competitive advantage.
But contrary to what you’ve been told, lifelong learners are built, not born.
THREAD: 20 lifelong learning habits you can start developing today.
Stimulate Dynamically
The mind is a muscle - it needs to be stimulated dynamically to continue to grow.
Don’t rely on one “exercise” - develop a menu of options.
Write, read, listen, watch. Solve puzzles, play games. Enjoy it!
Stimulate dynamically, learn dynamically.
Build Learning Circles
The most powerful learning is communal, not individual.
Build learning circles with other intellectually curious minds.
Engage regularly with no set intention or goal.
Community is everything. Embrace it.
Keep Asking Why
“Why?” is the most useful tool in our learning toolkit.
But somewhere along the line, we are told to stop asking why and just accept “facts” as we are told them.
Reject the norm.
If you want to understand the world, take a cue from our kids - keep asking why!
Adopt a Process Orientation
Prioritize process.
Learn for the sake of learning, not always for a specific goal.
When you prioritize process, you become flexible in where you are headed.
Life is a winding, confusing journey - forward progress is all that matters.
But contrary to what you’ve been told, lifelong learners are built, not born.
THREAD: 20 lifelong learning habits you can start developing today.
Stimulate Dynamically
The mind is a muscle - it needs to be stimulated dynamically to continue to grow.
Don’t rely on one “exercise” - develop a menu of options.
Write, read, listen, watch. Solve puzzles, play games. Enjoy it!
Stimulate dynamically, learn dynamically.
Build Learning Circles
The most powerful learning is communal, not individual.
Build learning circles with other intellectually curious minds.
Engage regularly with no set intention or goal.
Community is everything. Embrace it.
Keep Asking Why
“Why?” is the most useful tool in our learning toolkit.
But somewhere along the line, we are told to stop asking why and just accept “facts” as we are told them.
Reject the norm.
If you want to understand the world, take a cue from our kids - keep asking why!
First principles thinking is a powerful mental model for driving non-linear outcomes. It also requires a willingness to ask difficult, uncomfortable questions.
— Sahil Bloom (@SahilBloom) March 14, 2021
Here are a few to help you get started: pic.twitter.com/KyuAr7IUf7
Adopt a Process Orientation
Prioritize process.
Learn for the sake of learning, not always for a specific goal.
When you prioritize process, you become flexible in where you are headed.
Life is a winding, confusing journey - forward progress is all that matters.
