Any guesses what that represents?
That number is % over budget.
Since 1960, the Olympics have run over-budget by 172%.
And no Olympics have ever run under-budget.
The Olympic Games are controversial.
They're amazing for unity & entertainment.
But they're a horrible business.
THREAD: A story of billions in costs, misaligned incentives & crippling debt. 🧵
Any guesses what that represents?
That number is % over budget.
Since 1960, the Olympics have run over-budget by 172%.
And no Olympics have ever run under-budget.
Olympics: 172%
Mega dams: 90%
Trains: 45%
Bridge & tunnels: 34%
Roads: 20%
2013: bid projected $7.4 billion of costs
2019: official budget of $14.6 billion
2020: budget revised to $15.4 billion
2021: government auditors project total spending will be $28 billion.
At $28 billion, it's more than the GDP of:
- Uganda
- El Salvador
- Iceland
- Jamaica
- Madagascar
- Fiji
But the real question is why are host cities consistently HORRIBLE at staying within budget?
Time to find the answer.
Lack of optionality.
When you host the Olympics, you give up the right to do things your way.
1) You MUST stay on timeline
Forced to prioritize speed over savings
2) You MUST cover costs
Hosts are legally bound to all expenses
Poor expectation-setting.
Budgets should imply a final number.
But host cities treat budgets like down payments vs. final payments.
Host cities will bid for the Olympics with a budget that's like a down payment on a home.
And then many installments will follow.
It's called a "Blank Check," because no matter the cost, the host city will have to write it.
So, the Olympics are expensive AF.
Which leads to the second question...
Why do countries continue to bid on the Games?
Tokyo (2021):
• Expenses: $28 billion
• Revenue: $6.7 billion
London (2012):
• Expenses: $5.2 billion
• Revenue: $18 billion
Beijing (2008):
• Expenses: $40 billion
• Revenue: $3.6 billion
Bad incentives.
Countries get push from construction executives to bid on the games.
These companies get multi-billion dollar contracts if they win the bid.
They run economic impact studies to show how great Olympics can be for host countries.
But the studies are faulty & self-serving.
And, consultancies have 0 incentive to publish a negative study.
An attribution challenge.
Measuring long-term impact on a host country is very very difficult.
Brand Marketing = spending advertising $ to drive brand perception & consideration vs. immediate purchase
Ex: when Toyota spends on TV spots they're not expecting you to buy today
How do you know if a tourist's decision to visit Japan 10 years from now was driven by the 2021 Olympics?
You don't.
Like brand marketing, Olympics value attribution is hard.
1) Follow @businessbarista on Twitter for more business threads.
2) Listen to my podcast episode, which breaks down the business of the Olympics: https://t.co/3YlKP7F3bx
More from Alex Lieberman ☕️
More from Thread
This is a result of credit fueled big ticket purchases of which buying a home is a big component. No amount of saving will cover the housing EMIs payable over one year. To this, add EMIs of 1 or 2 cars, and you've monthly EMIs running into 1 Lakh+. Now, add monthly house-hold +
+ expense, school fee and other sundry expenses and suddenly, you'll find a family unable to sustain itself w/o cash-flow for even 3-4 months. And most important of them all -
HAVING ASSETS IS NOT SAME AS HAVING CASH.
+
+ From personal experience, I think this is what you need to do:
- Maintain between Rs 1-2 Lakhs in emergency cash at all times.
- Use your Credit Cards wisely. They can be good source of large credit in an emergency.
- Work out your monthly house-hold expenses and EMIs
+
- Build a cash-reserve to cover your household expenses for a 6-month or 1-year period.
- Consider food, electricity, mobile/internet, your kids school fee, fuel, rent etc.
- Then work out your EMI obligations and see what level of reserves you can create for them.
- Maintain+
+ this back-up fund in cash/near cash assets.
- So, that you can utilize them as per requirement and are not subject to market forces.
One thing I\u2019ve learnt from the Covid catastrophe is that the so many batch mates from engineering (and maybe b school) have no savings. So many people with like 20 years of really affluent work experience are two month\u2019s salary away from crowd funding to feed their families.
— Sidin (@sidin) July 9, 2021
+ expense, school fee and other sundry expenses and suddenly, you'll find a family unable to sustain itself w/o cash-flow for even 3-4 months. And most important of them all -
HAVING ASSETS IS NOT SAME AS HAVING CASH.
+
+ From personal experience, I think this is what you need to do:
- Maintain between Rs 1-2 Lakhs in emergency cash at all times.
- Use your Credit Cards wisely. They can be good source of large credit in an emergency.
- Work out your monthly house-hold expenses and EMIs
+
- Build a cash-reserve to cover your household expenses for a 6-month or 1-year period.
- Consider food, electricity, mobile/internet, your kids school fee, fuel, rent etc.
- Then work out your EMI obligations and see what level of reserves you can create for them.
- Maintain+
+ this back-up fund in cash/near cash assets.
- So, that you can utilize them as per requirement and are not subject to market forces.
Lifelong learning is a competitive advantage.
But contrary to what you’ve been told, lifelong learners are built, not born.
THREAD: 20 lifelong learning habits you can start developing today.
Stimulate Dynamically
The mind is a muscle - it needs to be stimulated dynamically to continue to grow.
Don’t rely on one “exercise” - develop a menu of options.
Write, read, listen, watch. Solve puzzles, play games. Enjoy it!
Stimulate dynamically, learn dynamically.
Build Learning Circles
The most powerful learning is communal, not individual.
Build learning circles with other intellectually curious minds.
Engage regularly with no set intention or goal.
Community is everything. Embrace it.
Keep Asking Why
“Why?” is the most useful tool in our learning toolkit.
But somewhere along the line, we are told to stop asking why and just accept “facts” as we are told them.
Reject the norm.
If you want to understand the world, take a cue from our kids - keep asking why!
Adopt a Process Orientation
Prioritize process.
Learn for the sake of learning, not always for a specific goal.
When you prioritize process, you become flexible in where you are headed.
Life is a winding, confusing journey - forward progress is all that matters.
But contrary to what you’ve been told, lifelong learners are built, not born.
THREAD: 20 lifelong learning habits you can start developing today.
Stimulate Dynamically
The mind is a muscle - it needs to be stimulated dynamically to continue to grow.
Don’t rely on one “exercise” - develop a menu of options.
Write, read, listen, watch. Solve puzzles, play games. Enjoy it!
Stimulate dynamically, learn dynamically.
Build Learning Circles
The most powerful learning is communal, not individual.
Build learning circles with other intellectually curious minds.
Engage regularly with no set intention or goal.
Community is everything. Embrace it.
Keep Asking Why
“Why?” is the most useful tool in our learning toolkit.
But somewhere along the line, we are told to stop asking why and just accept “facts” as we are told them.
Reject the norm.
If you want to understand the world, take a cue from our kids - keep asking why!
First principles thinking is a powerful mental model for driving non-linear outcomes. It also requires a willingness to ask difficult, uncomfortable questions.
— Sahil Bloom (@SahilBloom) March 14, 2021
Here are a few to help you get started: pic.twitter.com/KyuAr7IUf7
Adopt a Process Orientation
Prioritize process.
Learn for the sake of learning, not always for a specific goal.
When you prioritize process, you become flexible in where you are headed.
Life is a winding, confusing journey - forward progress is all that matters.
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Duration: 24/10/2018-23 /10/2019
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@dgaytandzhieva
https://t.co/680CdD8uug
2. Bat Virus Database
Access to the database is limited only to those scientists participating in our ‘Bats and Coronaviruses’ project
Our intention is to eventually open up this database to the larger scientific community
https://t.co/mPn7b9HM48
3. EcoHealth Alliance & DTRA Asking for Trouble
One Health research project focused on characterizing bat diversity, bat coronavirus diversity and the risk of bat-borne zoonotic disease emergence in the region.
https://t.co/u6aUeWBGEN
4. Phelps, Olival, Epstein, Karesh - EcoHealth/DTRA
5, Methods and Expected Outcomes
(Unexpected Outcome = New Coronavirus Pandemic)
Risks of bat-borne zoonotic diseases in Western Asia
Duration: 24/10/2018-23 /10/2019
Funding: $71,500
@dgaytandzhieva
https://t.co/680CdD8uug
2. Bat Virus Database
Access to the database is limited only to those scientists participating in our ‘Bats and Coronaviruses’ project
Our intention is to eventually open up this database to the larger scientific community
https://t.co/mPn7b9HM48
3. EcoHealth Alliance & DTRA Asking for Trouble
One Health research project focused on characterizing bat diversity, bat coronavirus diversity and the risk of bat-borne zoonotic disease emergence in the region.
https://t.co/u6aUeWBGEN
4. Phelps, Olival, Epstein, Karesh - EcoHealth/DTRA
5, Methods and Expected Outcomes
(Unexpected Outcome = New Coronavirus Pandemic)
Fake chats claiming to be from the Irish African community are being disseminated by the far right in order to suggest that violence is imminent from #BLM supporters. This is straight out of the QAnon and Proud Boys playbook. Spread the word. Protest safely. #georgenkencho
There is co-ordination across the far right in Ireland now to stir both left and right in the hopes of creating a race war. Think critically! Fascists see the tragic killing of #georgenkencho, the grief of his community and pending investigation as a flashpoint for action.
Across Telegram, Twitter and Facebook disinformation is being peddled on the back of these tragic events. From false photographs to the tactics ofwhite supremacy, the far right is clumsily trying to drive hate against minority groups and figureheads.
Declan Ganley’s Burkean group and the incel wing of National Party (Gearóid Murphy, Mick O’Keeffe & Co.) as well as all the usuals are concerted in their efforts to demonstrate their white supremacist cred. The quiet parts are today being said out loud.
The best thing you can do is challenge disinformation and report posts where engagement isn’t appropriate. Many of these are blatantly racist posts designed to drive recruitment to NP and other Nationalist groups. By all means protest but stay safe.
There is co-ordination across the far right in Ireland now to stir both left and right in the hopes of creating a race war. Think critically! Fascists see the tragic killing of #georgenkencho, the grief of his community and pending investigation as a flashpoint for action.
Across Telegram, Twitter and Facebook disinformation is being peddled on the back of these tragic events. From false photographs to the tactics ofwhite supremacy, the far right is clumsily trying to drive hate against minority groups and figureheads.
Be aware, the images the #farright are sharing in the hopes of starting a race war, are not of the SPAR employee that was punched. They\u2019re older photos of a Everton fan. Be aware of the information you\u2019re sharing and that it may be false. Always #factcheck #GeorgeNkencho pic.twitter.com/4c9w4CMk5h
— antifa.drone (@antifa_drone) December 31, 2020
Declan Ganley’s Burkean group and the incel wing of National Party (Gearóid Murphy, Mick O’Keeffe & Co.) as well as all the usuals are concerted in their efforts to demonstrate their white supremacist cred. The quiet parts are today being said out loud.
There is a concerted effort in far-right Telegram groups to try and incite violence on street by targetting people for racist online abuse following the killing of George Nkencho
— Mark Malone (@soundmigration) January 1, 2021
This follows on and is part of a misinformation campaign to polarise communities at this time.
The best thing you can do is challenge disinformation and report posts where engagement isn’t appropriate. Many of these are blatantly racist posts designed to drive recruitment to NP and other Nationalist groups. By all means protest but stay safe.
Oh my Goodness!!!
I might have a panic attack due to excitement!!
Read this thread to the end...I just had an epiphany and my mind is blown. Actually, more than blown. More like OBLITERATED! This is the thing! This is the thing that will blow the entire thing out of the water!
Has this man been concealing his true identity?
Is this man a supposed 'dead' Seal Team Six soldier?
Witness protection to be kept safe until the right moment when all will be revealed?!
Who ELSE is alive that may have faked their death/gone into witness protection?
Were "golden tickets" inside the envelopes??
Are these "golden tickets" going to lead to their ultimate undoing?
Review crumbs on the board re: 'gold'.
#SEALTeam6 Trump re-tweeted this.
I might have a panic attack due to excitement!!
Read this thread to the end...I just had an epiphany and my mind is blown. Actually, more than blown. More like OBLITERATED! This is the thing! This is the thing that will blow the entire thing out of the water!
Tik Tok pic.twitter.com/8X3oMxvncP
— Scotty Mar10 (@Allenma15086871) December 29, 2020
Has this man been concealing his true identity?
Is this man a supposed 'dead' Seal Team Six soldier?
Witness protection to be kept safe until the right moment when all will be revealed?!
Who ELSE is alive that may have faked their death/gone into witness protection?
Were "golden tickets" inside the envelopes??
Are these "golden tickets" going to lead to their ultimate undoing?
Review crumbs on the board re: 'gold'.
#SEALTeam6 Trump re-tweeted this.
