Any guesses what that represents?
That number is % over budget.
Since 1960, the Olympics have run over-budget by 172%.
And no Olympics have ever run under-budget.
The Olympic Games are controversial.
They're amazing for unity & entertainment.
But they're a horrible business.
THREAD: A story of billions in costs, misaligned incentives & crippling debt. 🧵
Any guesses what that represents?
That number is % over budget.
Since 1960, the Olympics have run over-budget by 172%.
And no Olympics have ever run under-budget.
Olympics: 172%
Mega dams: 90%
Trains: 45%
Bridge & tunnels: 34%
Roads: 20%
2013: bid projected $7.4 billion of costs
2019: official budget of $14.6 billion
2020: budget revised to $15.4 billion
2021: government auditors project total spending will be $28 billion.
At $28 billion, it's more than the GDP of:
- Uganda
- El Salvador
- Iceland
- Jamaica
- Madagascar
- Fiji
But the real question is why are host cities consistently HORRIBLE at staying within budget?
Time to find the answer.
Lack of optionality.
When you host the Olympics, you give up the right to do things your way.
1) You MUST stay on timeline
Forced to prioritize speed over savings
2) You MUST cover costs
Hosts are legally bound to all expenses
Poor expectation-setting.
Budgets should imply a final number.
But host cities treat budgets like down payments vs. final payments.
Host cities will bid for the Olympics with a budget that's like a down payment on a home.
And then many installments will follow.
It's called a "Blank Check," because no matter the cost, the host city will have to write it.
So, the Olympics are expensive AF.
Which leads to the second question...
Why do countries continue to bid on the Games?
Tokyo (2021):
• Expenses: $28 billion
• Revenue: $6.7 billion
London (2012):
• Expenses: $5.2 billion
• Revenue: $18 billion
Beijing (2008):
• Expenses: $40 billion
• Revenue: $3.6 billion
Bad incentives.
Countries get push from construction executives to bid on the games.
These companies get multi-billion dollar contracts if they win the bid.
They run economic impact studies to show how great Olympics can be for host countries.
But the studies are faulty & self-serving.
And, consultancies have 0 incentive to publish a negative study.
An attribution challenge.
Measuring long-term impact on a host country is very very difficult.
Brand Marketing = spending advertising $ to drive brand perception & consideration vs. immediate purchase
Ex: when Toyota spends on TV spots they're not expecting you to buy today
How do you know if a tourist's decision to visit Japan 10 years from now was driven by the 2021 Olympics?
You don't.
Like brand marketing, Olympics value attribution is hard.
1) Follow @businessbarista on Twitter for more business threads.
2) Listen to my podcast episode, which breaks down the business of the Olympics: https://t.co/3YlKP7F3bx
More from Alex Lieberman ☕️
Amazon Web Services (AWS) is a $54 billion behemoth.
It's bigger than Marriott, Netflix, and Twitter...combined.
Yet 99% of us don't actually understand the business.
THREAD: The story of AWS & lessons we can learn from it
AWS is electricity for the internet.
It is the largest provider of on-demand, cloud computing services in the world.
With 33% of a $150 billion global cloud market, AWS makes our digital lives possible.
While you may not be AWS's customer, you sure as hell use it every day.
Here are some of its clients:
- Netflix
- Zoom
- Verizon Wireless
- Coinbase
- Vanguard
- https://t.co/Dqrc2Fvb9B
- Morning Brew
- GoPro
- Samsung
- Pinterest
- Snap
- FanDuel
So now, you hopefully buy why AWS important.
But how did it start?
Let's hop in our tweet thread time machine....
It's 2003.
You're Jeff Bezos & your business is growing like a weed.
1999: $1.64 billion (revenue)
2000: $2.76 billion
2001: $3.12 billion
2002: $3.93 billion
2003: $5.26 billion
But you have a serious problem...
It's bigger than Marriott, Netflix, and Twitter...combined.
Yet 99% of us don't actually understand the business.
THREAD: The story of AWS & lessons we can learn from it
AWS is electricity for the internet.
It is the largest provider of on-demand, cloud computing services in the world.
With 33% of a $150 billion global cloud market, AWS makes our digital lives possible.
While you may not be AWS's customer, you sure as hell use it every day.
Here are some of its clients:
- Netflix
- Zoom
- Verizon Wireless
- Coinbase
- Vanguard
- https://t.co/Dqrc2Fvb9B
- Morning Brew
- GoPro
- Samsung
- Snap
- FanDuel
So now, you hopefully buy why AWS important.
But how did it start?
Let's hop in our tweet thread time machine....
It's 2003.
You're Jeff Bezos & your business is growing like a weed.
1999: $1.64 billion (revenue)
2000: $2.76 billion
2001: $3.12 billion
2002: $3.93 billion
2003: $5.26 billion
But you have a serious problem...
Introducing "The Balloon Effect"
Many businesses & creators have experienced a similar pattern of success.
From @MrBeastYT and @MorningBrew to @oatly and @Rovio.
Let's break down what "The Balloon Effect" is and examples of it in real life.
Keep reading 👇
1/ What is "The Balloon Effect"?
It is a particular pattern of growth.
It is not Instagram's growth trajectory.
It is not https://t.co/5axsTUKek6's growth trajectory.
"The Balloon Effect" is defined by several years of hard work & grit complemented by slow, linear growth.
2/ And then one day, one month, or one quarter...everything changes.
A business hits a tipping point and its trajectory shifts entirely.
Gradual growth turns to exponential growth & your brand and your size explode.
Like a step function.
3/ Now, you're probably wondering.
Why is it called "The Balloon Effect"?
Because filling/popping a water balloon follows the exact pattern I just described (and so many businesses experience).
Long unsexy slog 👉 Exponential tipping point.
4/ Initially, you turn on the faucet & water takes up space in the empty balloon.
Through effort you open the faucet, yet the results are unexciting.
But it's what must be done for water (or growth) to happen at all.
It's not sexy, but it's necessary.
Many businesses & creators have experienced a similar pattern of success.
From @MrBeastYT and @MorningBrew to @oatly and @Rovio.
Let's break down what "The Balloon Effect" is and examples of it in real life.
Keep reading 👇
1/ What is "The Balloon Effect"?
It is a particular pattern of growth.
It is not Instagram's growth trajectory.
It is not https://t.co/5axsTUKek6's growth trajectory.
"The Balloon Effect" is defined by several years of hard work & grit complemented by slow, linear growth.
2/ And then one day, one month, or one quarter...everything changes.
A business hits a tipping point and its trajectory shifts entirely.
Gradual growth turns to exponential growth & your brand and your size explode.
Like a step function.
3/ Now, you're probably wondering.
Why is it called "The Balloon Effect"?
Because filling/popping a water balloon follows the exact pattern I just described (and so many businesses experience).
Long unsexy slog 👉 Exponential tipping point.
4/ Initially, you turn on the faucet & water takes up space in the empty balloon.
Through effort you open the faucet, yet the results are unexciting.
But it's what must be done for water (or growth) to happen at all.
It's not sexy, but it's necessary.
More from Thread
Lifelong learning is a competitive advantage.
But contrary to what you’ve been told, lifelong learners are built, not born.
THREAD: 20 lifelong learning habits you can start developing today.
Stimulate Dynamically
The mind is a muscle - it needs to be stimulated dynamically to continue to grow.
Don’t rely on one “exercise” - develop a menu of options.
Write, read, listen, watch. Solve puzzles, play games. Enjoy it!
Stimulate dynamically, learn dynamically.
Build Learning Circles
The most powerful learning is communal, not individual.
Build learning circles with other intellectually curious minds.
Engage regularly with no set intention or goal.
Community is everything. Embrace it.
Keep Asking Why
“Why?” is the most useful tool in our learning toolkit.
But somewhere along the line, we are told to stop asking why and just accept “facts” as we are told them.
Reject the norm.
If you want to understand the world, take a cue from our kids - keep asking why!
Adopt a Process Orientation
Prioritize process.
Learn for the sake of learning, not always for a specific goal.
When you prioritize process, you become flexible in where you are headed.
Life is a winding, confusing journey - forward progress is all that matters.
But contrary to what you’ve been told, lifelong learners are built, not born.
THREAD: 20 lifelong learning habits you can start developing today.
Stimulate Dynamically
The mind is a muscle - it needs to be stimulated dynamically to continue to grow.
Don’t rely on one “exercise” - develop a menu of options.
Write, read, listen, watch. Solve puzzles, play games. Enjoy it!
Stimulate dynamically, learn dynamically.
Build Learning Circles
The most powerful learning is communal, not individual.
Build learning circles with other intellectually curious minds.
Engage regularly with no set intention or goal.
Community is everything. Embrace it.
Keep Asking Why
“Why?” is the most useful tool in our learning toolkit.
But somewhere along the line, we are told to stop asking why and just accept “facts” as we are told them.
Reject the norm.
If you want to understand the world, take a cue from our kids - keep asking why!
First principles thinking is a powerful mental model for driving non-linear outcomes. It also requires a willingness to ask difficult, uncomfortable questions.
— Sahil Bloom (@SahilBloom) March 14, 2021
Here are a few to help you get started: pic.twitter.com/KyuAr7IUf7
Adopt a Process Orientation
Prioritize process.
Learn for the sake of learning, not always for a specific goal.
When you prioritize process, you become flexible in where you are headed.
Life is a winding, confusing journey - forward progress is all that matters.
This is a result of credit fueled big ticket purchases of which buying a home is a big component. No amount of saving will cover the housing EMIs payable over one year. To this, add EMIs of 1 or 2 cars, and you've monthly EMIs running into 1 Lakh+. Now, add monthly house-hold +
+ expense, school fee and other sundry expenses and suddenly, you'll find a family unable to sustain itself w/o cash-flow for even 3-4 months. And most important of them all -
HAVING ASSETS IS NOT SAME AS HAVING CASH.
+
+ From personal experience, I think this is what you need to do:
- Maintain between Rs 1-2 Lakhs in emergency cash at all times.
- Use your Credit Cards wisely. They can be good source of large credit in an emergency.
- Work out your monthly house-hold expenses and EMIs
+
- Build a cash-reserve to cover your household expenses for a 6-month or 1-year period.
- Consider food, electricity, mobile/internet, your kids school fee, fuel, rent etc.
- Then work out your EMI obligations and see what level of reserves you can create for them.
- Maintain+
+ this back-up fund in cash/near cash assets.
- So, that you can utilize them as per requirement and are not subject to market forces.
One thing I\u2019ve learnt from the Covid catastrophe is that the so many batch mates from engineering (and maybe b school) have no savings. So many people with like 20 years of really affluent work experience are two month\u2019s salary away from crowd funding to feed their families.
— Sidin (@sidin) July 9, 2021
+ expense, school fee and other sundry expenses and suddenly, you'll find a family unable to sustain itself w/o cash-flow for even 3-4 months. And most important of them all -
HAVING ASSETS IS NOT SAME AS HAVING CASH.
+
+ From personal experience, I think this is what you need to do:
- Maintain between Rs 1-2 Lakhs in emergency cash at all times.
- Use your Credit Cards wisely. They can be good source of large credit in an emergency.
- Work out your monthly house-hold expenses and EMIs
+
- Build a cash-reserve to cover your household expenses for a 6-month or 1-year period.
- Consider food, electricity, mobile/internet, your kids school fee, fuel, rent etc.
- Then work out your EMI obligations and see what level of reserves you can create for them.
- Maintain+
+ this back-up fund in cash/near cash assets.
- So, that you can utilize them as per requirement and are not subject to market forces.
I have shared multiple information related to trading and investing through my historical data analysis by writing various articles, here's the master thread that contains all my work in one place.🧵
https://t.co/pc1jr1xBlI
https://t.co/KZJ1FKCXSp
https://t.co/pTnbkjVpr0
https://t.co/3QXmND1x6Y
https://t.co/pc1jr1xBlI
Am sharing my journey on how I started trading 15 years before when there was very limited resource. If you are a beginner who is looking to get started with Stock Market, this thread would be helpful.\U0001f9f5
— Kirubakaran Rajendran (@kirubaakaran) April 26, 2022
https://t.co/KZJ1FKCXSp
Many of my friends who work at Corporate culture are fed up with their work life, one question they keep asking me is how much money do I need to retire and live comfortably? Here\u2019s a short thread \U0001f9f5 pic.twitter.com/gNEOFOChlh
— Kirubakaran Rajendran (@kirubaakaran) May 24, 2022
https://t.co/pTnbkjVpr0
Year 2022 has been disastrous for many asset classes, the world economy is at 40 year high inflation. Are we headed for another stock market crash? Here's a detailed analysis. \U0001f9f5 pic.twitter.com/ZYch9yBHEq
— Kirubakaran Rajendran (@kirubaakaran) May 19, 2022
https://t.co/3QXmND1x6Y
I have closely observed FinNifty for couple of weeks and then started trading live since last 4 expiry. If you are looking to start trading with FinNifty weekly option then this thread might be of great help to you. \U0001f9f5
— Kirubakaran Rajendran (@kirubaakaran) July 12, 2022
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1/ Some initial thoughts on personal moats:
Like company moats, your personal moat should be a competitive advantage that is not only durable—it should also compound over time.
Characteristics of a personal moat below:
2/ Like a company moat, you want to build career capital while you sleep.
As Andrew Chen noted:
3/ You don’t want to build a competitive advantage that is fleeting or that will get commoditized
Things that might get commoditized over time (some longer than
4/ Before the arrival of recorded music, what used to be scarce was the actual music itself — required an in-person artist.
After recorded music, the music itself became abundant and what became scarce was curation, distribution, and self space.
5/ Similarly, in careers, what used to be (more) scarce were things like ideas, money, and exclusive relationships.
In the internet economy, what has become scarce are things like specific knowledge, rare & valuable skills, and great reputations.
Like company moats, your personal moat should be a competitive advantage that is not only durable—it should also compound over time.
Characteristics of a personal moat below:
I'm increasingly interested in the idea of "personal moats" in the context of careers.
— Erik Torenberg (@eriktorenberg) November 22, 2018
Moats should be:
- Hard to learn and hard to do (but perhaps easier for you)
- Skills that are rare and valuable
- Legible
- Compounding over time
- Unique to your own talents & interests https://t.co/bB3k1YcH5b
2/ Like a company moat, you want to build career capital while you sleep.
As Andrew Chen noted:
People talk about \u201cpassive income\u201d a lot but not about \u201cpassive social capital\u201d or \u201cpassive networking\u201d or \u201cpassive knowledge gaining\u201d but that\u2019s what you can architect if you have a thing and it grows over time without intensive constant effort to sustain it
— Andrew Chen (@andrewchen) November 22, 2018
3/ You don’t want to build a competitive advantage that is fleeting or that will get commoditized
Things that might get commoditized over time (some longer than
Things that look like moats but likely aren\u2019t or may fade:
— Erik Torenberg (@eriktorenberg) November 22, 2018
- Proprietary networks
- Being something other than one of the best at any tournament style-game
- Many "awards"
- Twitter followers or general reach without "respect"
- Anything that depends on information asymmetry https://t.co/abjxesVIh9
4/ Before the arrival of recorded music, what used to be scarce was the actual music itself — required an in-person artist.
After recorded music, the music itself became abundant and what became scarce was curation, distribution, and self space.
5/ Similarly, in careers, what used to be (more) scarce were things like ideas, money, and exclusive relationships.
In the internet economy, what has become scarce are things like specific knowledge, rare & valuable skills, and great reputations.
Fake chats claiming to be from the Irish African community are being disseminated by the far right in order to suggest that violence is imminent from #BLM supporters. This is straight out of the QAnon and Proud Boys playbook. Spread the word. Protest safely. #georgenkencho
There is co-ordination across the far right in Ireland now to stir both left and right in the hopes of creating a race war. Think critically! Fascists see the tragic killing of #georgenkencho, the grief of his community and pending investigation as a flashpoint for action.
Across Telegram, Twitter and Facebook disinformation is being peddled on the back of these tragic events. From false photographs to the tactics ofwhite supremacy, the far right is clumsily trying to drive hate against minority groups and figureheads.
Declan Ganley’s Burkean group and the incel wing of National Party (Gearóid Murphy, Mick O’Keeffe & Co.) as well as all the usuals are concerted in their efforts to demonstrate their white supremacist cred. The quiet parts are today being said out loud.
The best thing you can do is challenge disinformation and report posts where engagement isn’t appropriate. Many of these are blatantly racist posts designed to drive recruitment to NP and other Nationalist groups. By all means protest but stay safe.
There is co-ordination across the far right in Ireland now to stir both left and right in the hopes of creating a race war. Think critically! Fascists see the tragic killing of #georgenkencho, the grief of his community and pending investigation as a flashpoint for action.
Across Telegram, Twitter and Facebook disinformation is being peddled on the back of these tragic events. From false photographs to the tactics ofwhite supremacy, the far right is clumsily trying to drive hate against minority groups and figureheads.
Be aware, the images the #farright are sharing in the hopes of starting a race war, are not of the SPAR employee that was punched. They\u2019re older photos of a Everton fan. Be aware of the information you\u2019re sharing and that it may be false. Always #factcheck #GeorgeNkencho pic.twitter.com/4c9w4CMk5h
— antifa.drone (@antifa_drone) December 31, 2020
Declan Ganley’s Burkean group and the incel wing of National Party (Gearóid Murphy, Mick O’Keeffe & Co.) as well as all the usuals are concerted in their efforts to demonstrate their white supremacist cred. The quiet parts are today being said out loud.
There is a concerted effort in far-right Telegram groups to try and incite violence on street by targetting people for racist online abuse following the killing of George Nkencho
— Mark Malone (@soundmigration) January 1, 2021
This follows on and is part of a misinformation campaign to polarise communities at this time.
The best thing you can do is challenge disinformation and report posts where engagement isn’t appropriate. Many of these are blatantly racist posts designed to drive recruitment to NP and other Nationalist groups. By all means protest but stay safe.
