4 factors to measure the performance of a trading system:

1 - Accuracy
There is no such thing as 90% Accuracy without compromising on other factors (like profit factor, etc)

Fact - A good trading system will have only 35-60% accuracy without compromising other factors.

(1/n)

2 - Profit Factor (PF)

It is similar to risk-reward. It is derived using the below formula:

Profit Factor = Total Profit by winning trades / Total loss by losing trades

Fact - A trading system above 1.2 PF is good if it scores well with other factors.

(2/n)
3 - Maximum Drawdown

The maximum drawdown also plays a vital role psychologically while picking a trading system.

Fact - Maximum Drawdown in any trading system should not exceed 20%. I suggest picking only the techniques which have less than 10% maximum drawdown.

(3/n)
4 - Maximum Consecutive Losers

We all feel bad even if we lose only Rs.1,000 in a trade. Because it is not only about the money, it is emotionally difficult to accept the failure.

Fact - A good trading system will have less than 15 consecutive losing trades.

(4/n)
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(n/n)
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So the cryptocurrency industry has basically two products, one which is relatively benign and doesn't have product market fit, and one which is malignant and does. The industry has a weird superposition of understanding this fact and (strategically?) not understanding it.


The benign product is sovereign programmable money, which is historically a niche interest of folks with a relatively clustered set of beliefs about the state, the literary merit of Snow Crash, and the utility of gold to the modern economy.

This product has narrow appeal and, accordingly, is worth about as much as everything else on a 486 sitting in someone's basement is worth.

The other product is investment scams, which have approximately the best product market fit of anything produced by humans. In no age, in no country, in no city, at no level of sophistication do people consistently say "Actually I would prefer not to get money for nothing."

This product needs the exchanges like they need oxygen, because the value of it is directly tied to having payment rails to move real currency into the ecosystem and some jurisdictional and regulatory legerdemain to stay one step ahead of the banhammer.