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Indrazith Shantharaj
@indraziths 3 years, 10 months ago 663 views

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4 factors to measure the performance of a trading system:

1 - Accuracy
There is no such thing as 90% Accuracy without compromising on other factors (like profit factor, etc)

Fact - A good trading system will have only 35-60% accuracy without compromising other factors.

(1/n)

2 - Profit Factor (PF)

It is similar to risk-reward. It is derived using the below formula:

Profit Factor = Total Profit by winning trades / Total loss by losing trades

Fact - A trading system above 1.2 PF is good if it scores well with other factors.

(2/n)

3 - Maximum Drawdown

The maximum drawdown also plays a vital role psychologically while picking a trading system.

Fact - Maximum Drawdown in any trading system should not exceed 20%. I suggest picking only the techniques which have less than 10% maximum drawdown.

(3/n)

4 - Maximum Consecutive Losers

We all feel bad even if we lose only Rs.1,000 in a trade. Because it is not only about the money, it is emotionally difficult to accept the failure.

Fact - A good trading system will have less than 15 consecutive losing trades.

(4/n)

TRADE LIKE CRAZY

10 Profitable Intraday Trading Systems, which are backtested against 10-years of Banknifty Historical Data!

(n/n)
https://t.co/BuUie17Ish

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Indrazith Shantharaj
@indraziths

A few years back, I was so confused to relate "Volume" with "Price" and every time my prediction went wrong.

Later I discovered my own "Prime-Volume" relationship logic, and all the confusions dissolved.

Read the post to know that

Indrazith Shantharaj
@indraziths

VOLUME is the ultimate Trading cheat code.

But, most people never use it in the right way – because no one ever taught them how.

Here are 10 psychological triggers to knowing Volume in a better way :

Traditional idea of Volume:

- if the price increases with an increase in volume, it is BULLISH
- If the price is increasing without volume, it is BEARISH
- if the price is falling with an increase in volume, it is BEARISH
- if the price is falling without volume, it is BULLISH

But this doesn't hold good every time!

Let's look at some examples.

Ex #1: Tata Consumer (Daily Chart)

Here the price has gone upside from 640 to 780 without any increase in the volume!

Ex #2: Axis Bank (Daily Charts)

Here the price has gone up from 420 to 580 without much increase in the volume.

Do you think it can happen only in an uptrend?

Look at these charts!

Ex #3: Reliance (Daily chart)

Reliance fell from 1620 to 1300 without an increase in volume!

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Indrazith Shantharaj
@indraziths

Bhav Bhagwan Hai (Price is God)

Lekin Open Interest (OI) Bhagwan ka Baap Hai (OI is Father of God)

This is what some traders claim about Open Interest (OI)😄

Is it True or Not?

Check These Features about OI & Decide Yourself!

Thread 🧵

#openinterest #OI
(1/N)

Check the ZEEL OI Change Chart as of 22/Sep/2022

There was a huge spike in 270 Puts (PE).

It means people sold 270 PE anticipating the price would not close below 270 before this month's expiry.

But the closing price of ZEEL on the next day (23/Sep) is 260.95.

(2/N)

Now can you imagine the conditions of these 270 PE sellers?

They have trapped - Either they have to book a huge loss or shift their position (it brings more risk to the table).

On 23/Sep, most people closed their position in 270 PE.

(3/N)

Also, many traders sold 270 CE, which adds more pressure to the fall.

270 PE opened at 6.9 and closed at 13.5 (close to 100% losses for options sellers) on 23/Sep.

(4/N)

Open Interest (OI) provides all this information (and many more).

What is Open Interest (OI)?

OI is the total number of outstanding derivative contracts (both futures and options) that have not been settled (still open).

(5/N)

Indrazith Shantharaj
@indraziths

My new book, "Price Action Trading" is available on Amazon now!

https://t.co/vzYQqJ6xBK

Please read, share, and give your feedback on Amazon 😃

Indrazith Shantharaj
@indraziths

I am getting many questions related to Breakout Trading.

I have mentioned all the rules in this book

https://t.co/UIwiwggEUg

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SSStockAlerts
@ssstockalerts

If you look into the #weekly #chart you can see clearly if a #stock is under #accumulation or #distribution.

– If volume is above average and it was an UP week, it's accumulation.

– If volume is above average and it was a DOWN week, it's distribution.

@BlogJulianKomar

Piyush Chaudhry
@piyushchaudhry

In such a case, H&S can be either a continuation pattern or compound fulcrum.
This is how to differentiate:
• if right shoulder is smaller than left, most likely a continuation H&S
• if right is same or higher than left, and the price is not coming to neckline, most likely CF

sir a doubt does head & shoulders work in down trend ? pic.twitter.com/dytYmbzOfp
— Vega_Greek (@VegaGreek) May 13, 2021

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Sarang Sood
@SarangSood

Understanding HIGH & LOW VIX

VIX at 16: If you check today's IV behaviour, they were not spiking much even with decent delta move in BNF. The movement was subtle, giving some time to adjust. So someone having good adjustment mechanism can stay in the game longer.

1/

VIX at 20: The same delta move will be more fierce, coupled with rise in premiums. When premiums rise with movement, then the adjustment cost increases exponentially. The premiums can fall back at EOD, but the damage is done if caught in the spike.

2/

After talking to few traders, their backtest result was in favor of high VIX of 2020, rather than 2017-19. The key flaw in the backtest were the adjustments which are not easy to calculate. Combination of high theta & fixed SL during high VIX, the IV crush is cashed at EOD.

3/

Neutral option sellers who don't adjust & have fixed SL on a static straddle will not be able to benefit highly in low VIX. The straddle which moves away from ATM will increase no matter what. But if we keep on rolling our strikes, then we get good realisation of theta.

4/

I have made majority of my profits in option selling when VIX was at 13-15, mostly just relying on my adjustments. Since 2020 with high VIX, adjustments stopped working because of increase in the frequency of delta + IV spike combos & so had to shift to directional trading.

5/

$The Man Who Never Shorts \U0001f31f$

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Guys quick question

Is this pattern 🐂 or 🐻 ??? @anand_luhar

Inverse hammer then hammer pattern again on next 5 min candle

#Jubilantfoodworks

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@MultipieSocial

In a recent interview with Udayan Mukherjee, the big bull Rakesh Jhunjhunwala made an interesting bold statement - "I think nobody has read the Electricity (Amendment) Bill. Once it passes, it will be bigger than 1991 reforms."

A thread🧵dissecting the ongoing Power reforms 👇

2/17
In summary, the Amendment Bill 2021 says:
⚡️ Delicensing of state monopoly- open to competition
⚡️ Consumers can choose discoms (like telcos)
⚡️ Smart meters to plug leakages
⚡️ Easy resolution of disputes
⚡️ Right to 24x7 electricity
⚡️ Rewarding consumers shifting to solar

3/17
We'll discuss these in detail. But first, some context.

India's is the 3rd largest consumer of electricity. But also one of the most inefficient (measured via AT&C losses - electricity that is generated but does not reach intended customers)
AT&C: 22% vs 8% global. Chart 👇

4/17
Currently, only 9% Indians are served by private discoms (Mumbai, Ahmedabad, Delhi).

AT&C loss for Delhi has declined from 55% in 2002 to 9% in 2020 after power distribution was taken over by three private licensees. Makes a strong case for broader delicensing of discoms.

5/17
What are discoms?

The Power value chain:
Raw material (Coal, Fuel) --> Generation --> Transmission --> Distribution --> Consumption

In this chain, Distribution companies (or discoms) have been the weakest link for last 3 decades.

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@HiteshAwasthi89

#Thread
Lessor known facts of Sudarshan Chakra or Neela Chakra of Puri Jagannath Temple.

The metal wheel at the top of Bhagwan Jagannath temple is also known as Neela Chakra (Blue Wheel). The wheel is made of eight metals comprising of.. 1/n

iron, copper, zinc, mercury, lead, brass, silver & gold. It's circumferance is about 36 feet & it is so designed that there is a wheel within the wheel. The circumferance of the inner wheel is about 26 feet. Eight hubs join together the inner and the outer wheels. 2/n

There are decorative designs on the outer wheel. The thickness of the Neela Chakra is 2 inches.The wheel is said to be Bhagwan Vishnu's most powerful weapon, Sudarshana Chakra. Inside Jagannath temple, Lord Vishnu's wheel is also worshipped in the name of 'Sudarshana'. 3/n

But inside the temple Sudarshana is not in the shape of a wheel, but in the shape of a small wood pillar placed to the left of image of bhagwan Jagannath. It is believed that the same Sudarshana is also at the top of the temple and is known by the name of Neela Chakra. 4/n

There is a specific category of people among the temple sevaks to serve the Neela Chakra and they are known as Garuda Sevaka or Chunara Nejoga. The pilgrims hold these sevaks in high esteem because everyday at Sunset. 5/n

Ottoman History Podcas...
@OttomanHistory

Here is a special thread introducing our series on “The Making of the Islamic World.” It offers 10 episodes about the transformation of Islamicate societies between the 7th and 17th centuries. You can find the series page here: https://t.co/7mL9eWmMmz

This is Chris Gratien posting. I created this series during Fall 2020 for my students as asynchronous material supported by readings and discussion. This is going to be a long thread, but it will be a great shortcut for those looking to make similar use of these materials.

There are two items worth pointing out: 1. This is an overview of the political, social, and cultural history of Islamicate societies. It does not deal with the origins of Islam or many theological questions. It does discuss Islam’s spread and the transformation of Islamic law.

2. This is the first part of a two-part sequence that takes the history of the Islamic world into the present. It emphasizes developments and themes that have particular relevance for later periods.

This is really a multivocal narrative of Islamic history. We feature over 20 scholars from almost as many institutions. Many of those who worked on it, myself included, study the early modern and modern era but have teaching obligations that take us further back in history.

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Jaya_Upadhyaya
@Jayalko1

RISHI BHRINGI AND ARDHA-NAREESHWAR SHIVA

Rishi Bhringi was a devoted bhakt of Mahadev. However, in his devotion to Shiva, he ignored Mata Parvati.

Once, he visited Kailasha along with other Rishis. All the Rishis did parikrama of Shiva and Parvati both except Rishi Bhringi.

The same situation continued whenever Rishi Bhringi visited Kailasha. Mata Parvati decided to teach him that Shiva and Parvati are one and inseparable.
So on one such visit, Mata Parvati sat on the left lap of Mahadev when Rishi Bhringi came.

Seeing this, Rishi Bhringi took the form of a bee(some say bird) and did pradakshina/ parikrama only around Shiva’s head and ignored Ma Parvati.
Angered Mata took away the Shakti from his body. Rishi lost his blood and flesh and was left with a bare skeletal form.

Seeing him in such a situation where he was unable to support himself, Shiva granted a third leg to him.
Shiva then fused one half of his body with that of Ma Parvati and appeared as Ardha Nareeshwar.
Rishi Bhringi finally realised that Shiv and Shakti are one and the same.
🙏🏻

Erik Torenberg
@eriktorenberg

1/“What would need to be true for you to….X”

Why is this the most powerful question you can ask when attempting to reach an agreement with another human being or organization?

A thread, co-written by @deanmbrody:

Next level tactic when closing a sale, candidate, or investment:

Ask: \u201cWhat needs to be true for you to be all in?\u201d

You'll usually get an explicit answer that you might not get otherwise. It also holds them accountable once the thing they need becomes true.
— Erik Torenberg (@eriktorenberg) February 27, 2018

2/ First, “X” could be lots of things. Examples: What would need to be true for you to

- “Feel it's in our best interest for me to be CMO"
- “Feel that we’re in a good place as a company”
- “Feel that we’re on the same page”
- “Feel that we both got what we wanted from this deal

3/ Normally, we aren’t that direct. Example from startup/VC land:

Founders leave VC meetings thinking that every VC will invest, but they rarely do.

Worse over, the founders don’t know what they need to do in order to be fundable.

4/ So why should you ask the magic Q?

To get clarity.

You want to know where you stand, and what it takes to get what you want in a way that also gets them what they want.

It also holds them (mentally) accountable once the thing they need becomes true.

5/ Staying in the context of soliciting investors, the question is “what would need to be true for you to want to invest (or partner with us on this journey, etc)?”

Multiple responses to this question are likely to deliver a positive result.

Will Buxton
@wbuxtonofficial

The Haas / Force India argument is fascinating, and the decision of the stewards may still have consequences. The first key finding is that the stewards ruled Racing Point Force India to be a valid constructor. That means that it builds its own cars.

Haas had argued that the cars had been designed by Force India, but as Haas knows only too well, "outsourcing" is legal. The stewards decided that "there is no regulatory support for the argument that Outsourcing of Listed Parts cannot come from a former or excluded team."

In determining this, the stewards also came to the following conclusion: "In relation to the submission by the Racing Point Force India F1 Team that it is not a new team, the Stewards decide that the Racing Point Force India F1 Team is indeed a new team."

This will have a big knock on effect for Haas in its continued arguments over the rights of RPFI as relates to its eligibility and rights under the complex payments structure. Haas has argued all along that RPFI should be treated as a new team and tread the same path that it did.

TLDR? Haas lost the fight but may have won the war. In having its argument that Racing Point hadn't designed their own car thrown out, they gained clarification that RPFI was a new team.