Understanding HIGH & LOW VIX

VIX at 16: If you check today's IV behaviour, they were not spiking much even with decent delta move in BNF. The movement was subtle, giving some time to adjust. So someone having good adjustment mechanism can stay in the game longer.

1/

Q: Sir why call option premiums are higher the put?

A: It usually happens when there is big difference between spot & future.

Example

BN Spot: 35110
BN Future: 35300
BN Synthetic Future: 35150

It depends on our perception of what is ATM & accordingly match the calls & puts.

FINDING EDGE IN OPTIONS

24/08/15: Nifty gap down 250 points & another 250 after that. Previous few months return gone, but since I'm quick to take my losses, was saved from ruin. Before that my only edge in option selling was adjustments & my forever edge of following PA. (1/n)

I soon realised that theta decay with sound adjustments is not an edge, which i earlier thought was & which gave me good returns over the years. After that i went deeper in understanding volatility behaviour, how/where it manifests & all the discrepancies in option chain. (2/n)

With finding edge in logistics i mean how to keep the greeks in check, SL in place & optimum ways of adjustments with minimum slippages. So the main aim here is to write theta without following vol behaviour & having any actual knowledge of what's going on in the markets. (3/n)

A dedicated trader can learn all this in few years & it is something which is 'obvious' to become successful. But majority can't reach this level, as this also requires consistent hustle in live markets. All the seminar/webinar business teaches you till this level only.(4/n)

If you get passed this level though, the real work starts, when you have to find your real edge. This can't be taught in a webinar. It needs serious introspection of your trading skills, psychology & strategies in use, which ultimately allow you to book excellent profits. (5/n)

10 mistakes in my 14 years of trading as an option seller 🧵

1. Staying neutral all the time. Majority of the years i have been a neutral option seller. I now realise that having a little sense of direction would have given me an added advantage with better utilisation of capital & also leverage (till the time it was available).

2. Too much importance on adjustments. Initially like most of the new option sellers, i had this notion that i can perfect my adjustment skills for any market conditions. Ofcourse i was wrong. Market is supreme & we need to respect it at times.

3. Not giving importance to greeks. For initial 6 years i didn't even know the existence of greeks. Since i started using them, option selling has become rather less complicated on the contrary of what most people believe.

4. Having too much confidence on the certainty of theta decay. Enough is said about it already. Theta decay is not an edge.

THREAD ON DELTA (The most important GREEK)

Many traders don't indulge in understanding GREEKS because they think they are very complicated.

There are 4 primary greeks:

Delta
Gamma
Theta
Vega

In my experience, understanding DELTA is enough to take benefit of greeks.(1/n)

Delta measures the rate of change of options price based on the directional movement of the underlying.

So this means we can know in advance (theoretically) how much an option will move with the underlying & so we can prepare our strategies accordingly. (2/n)

Value of delta varies between 0 & 1 for calls and -1 & 0 for puts. This figure tells how much an option price will change, when the underlying moves 1 point. So example a delta of .2 of call indicates that for every 1 point change in the underlying, the price will move .2 (3/n)

For option writers who want to trade in neutral strategies like straddle, strangle, ratios, calendar etc, delta can be very helpful. So be it any complex strategy, knowing the NET DELTA can give you an idea of how your strategy will perform in different scenarios. (4/n)

Net delta is just the sum of the deltas of all the bull options (call+ & put-) minus the bear options (call- & put+).

So if we can track this, we will always be in the know of how much exposed our position is. It makes it easier then to adjust our position. (5/n)

#PivotShiftIndicator
Those who followed this today would not have gone long in the open.
Both PSI and advance decline momentum were sloping downwards continuously even when the mkt gapped up and kept going up.Trollers might say this as post Mortem. But I made what I can... 😌.

#Nifty and #EEMA
Friends forever

1 FMCG stock chart has so much to teach -
1) Cup
2) Handle
3) BO
4) Retest
5) Bearish RSI divergence

What is obvious, USUALLY doesn't play out #StockMarket

Another 1 from the same space...15min chart shows massive buying in the closing minutes & CE's running for cover. Find it---> Analyse it ---> Trade it

Thread: Alligator indicator

#Alligator #Indicators #Definedge

Alligator indicator is created by Bill Williams. He was a popular trader and author.

Before we discuss the indicator, let us understand an important concept.

Here is a chart showing 10 day moving average at bar A. Price of the stock is 100, Moving average price is 90.

What if we shift this moving average to 5 bars further? See the chart below.

Moving average at bar B is moving average price of bar A (5 candles behind). This is shifting of moving average price. What does it mean?

Simple explanation is – shifting the moving average can help one compare current price with past period moving average easily. It results in smoothening instead of increasing the moving average parameter. This is also known as Forward Displaced moving average.

(1/n) Some notes from my trading journal – A thread
With this thread I shall attempt to explain how I select my trading picks.

I have learn't this concept from @markminervini 's books. Hope it helps.

#Trade #Investment #invest #StockMarket #stocks #india

(2/n) Stock trading above 200 and 50 DMA

Buy high to gain higher. CMP above 50 Day Moving Average (DMA) and 50 DMA above 200 DMA signifies the stock to be in an uptrend. This is an uncompromisable rule. @ZerodhaVarsity @zerodhaonline
#stocks

(3/n) Volume

Volume is the key factor. The stock should show clear signs of accumulation. Generally, accumulation should happen over multiple periods of time. Attached image in the case of #BALAMINES can be used as an eg.
@ZerodhaVarsity

#stocks #StockMarket

(4/n) Surge

A stock should be bought either when it’s in stage 2 or when it’s forming a base after a surge. Surge is an upward move in a stock. The best trades are those when a huge surge happens in a very short time frame. Eg #FILATEX
@ZerodhaVarsity

#stocks #StockMarket

(5/n) Consolidation

After a good surge, a stock generally consolidates. This means the stock is in its resting period and will trade only in a range. This phase will be coupled with volume dry up. Tight range with low volumes are the best setups. @ZerodhaVarsity
#stocks