Nifty and RSI divergence. It is all about knowing your indicator well. Quick video (Hindi) :-)

@rachitagrawal97 Hammer at bottom = bullish
Same pattern is Hanging man when appears at top = bearish
Inverted hammer at bottom = bullish
Same pattern is shooting star when appears at top = bearish.

I have tested bullish & bearish brrakout of these patterns.

Back-testing of some candlestick patterns 🧵

I hv back-tested patterns shown below on 500 stocks (Nifty 500 stock group as on today) since inception on daily timeframe charts.

Below is some interesting information.

I was doing to design multi-chart setups. But the information in the thread can be useful for people practicing candlestick chart patterns. There are many patterns & we keep coming across more. The data can give you a rough idea about the past performance of patterns.

Patterns are defined based on the popular rules of identifying them. I have also tested bearish patterns for bullish trades and vice versa (Contra approach).

Criteria: Hit ratio & returns of pattern giving 1:1 risk-reward if the entry is at the closing price of the pattern.

Some top bullish patterns have below hit ratio:

Inverted Hammer or Shooting Star – 74.72%
Multi-Harami breakout - 65.23%
Bullish Harami cross – 64.6%
Bullish Kicker – 63.53% (Got better returns)
Bullish separating line – 61.69% (It has got better returns)

Doji breakout hit ratio is decent (63.71%) but occurrences are v high so need more confirmation.

Engulfing and Harami patterns have got better returns when traded at next candle of confirmation.

Thread: Darvas Box Theory

#Darvas #knowledgesharing #Definedge

Nicolas Darvas (1920 – 1977) was a professional dancer and he travelled around the world. He founded a Dance company in 1950s. Someone offered him shares against his Dance programme and that is how he came across stock market and the business of trading.

He reportedly turned thousand dollars into millions in the late 1950s.

He wrote a popular book during 1960 “How I made $2000000 in Stock Market” in which he explained his Box theory. It is a must read.

He used a combination fundamental and technical approach for investing.

He believed in investing in only growth stocks. I think he did not explain a few things in his book, and I found some difference in interpretation of box-theory at various places because of that. This post is my interpretation of his theory.

Darvas was tracking stocks only making new high. I do not think he really talked about 52-week high. He mentioned about stocks breaking 2-3 year high. But 52-week high is mostly tracked for this theory so let us keep it that way to begin with for the sake of objectivity.

Thread: Central Pivot Range (CPR)

CPR is another popular tool. Three lines are plotted on the chart when we plot CPR.

The three lines are: CPR, TC and BC.

Let’s understand the calculation.

You may recall that I explained the calculation of Pivot levels in an earlier thread. CPR stands for Central Pivot Range. It is always a center line of the three lines that gets plotted in the chart.

CPR is a Pivot price. Pivot is average of HLC as explained in the prev thread.

We also discussed about Mid-range of the session. Mid-range is average of High and low price of the session.

The mid-range of the bar is known as BC in the CPR calculation. BC stands for Bottom central pivot.

Pivot level captures the relationship of the closing price to the range of the session.

Pivot price above mid-price = bullish pivot
Pivot price below mid-price = bearish pivot

So, CPR line is Pivot and BC line is Mid-range.

What is the difference between both?
Mid-range is average of High and Low.

Pivot is average of High, Low and Close.
What will make the difference between the two?

Close.

Thread: Pivot levels

Trading based on Pivot levels is one of the popular approaches. Both short-term and intraday traders track Pivot levels to identify support and resistance levels in any instrument.

Let’s discuss how these levels are calculated.

The pivot calculation method considers the previous day prices to calculate the support and resistance levels.

There are seven levels marked on the chart when we plot Pivot as a tool.

There is a Pivot level, 3 support levels (S1, S2 & S3) & 3 resistance levels (R1, R2 & R3).

We have four prices for any trading session - Open, High, Low, Close.

They give us the important information about what happened during that session. Levels is calculated using the High, Low & Closing price of the previous day. Let’s understand Pivot calculation with an example

The difference between high and low is a range of the day.

High – Low = Range
In our example, range of the session is 10 points.

105 – 95 = 10

Mid-price of the session is average of high and low price.

The Mid-price in this case would be 100.
(105 + 95) / 2.

Mid-price is average of range of the session. How about including the closing price to this calculation?

If we calculate the average of High, Low and Closing price - we get the Pivot point.

(105 + 95 + 103) = 101 is the Pivot level in our example.

Everyone speaks about when to buy a stock. Hardly anyone speaks on when to "Sell".

Thread on when to sell a stock🧵

1) Repeated Corporate Governance issues - Exit a stock if there is news of repeated CG issues popping up every now and then. It takes a mountain to change a bad management. Better opportunities always exists.

2) If the financial performance of the company is declining - keep a watch on this over quarters to see if the performance in profits and sales is consistently going down. Attend AGM, Concalls to understand the reasons for same.

3) If the working capital days is increasing - keep a check on receivables days. A higher receivables days QoQ over a period, shows that working capital cycle is strained.

4) If borrowings increase - Check on if the borrowings have gone up due to capex or as a working capital effect. If for capex, check if company has ability to repay the same in a down cycle. Too much of leverage usually kills a business.

SIMPLE & FREE LEARNING FOR U ALL FRIENDS

The #Best #Long Trades happen when MACD is above the #Zero Line!!!

#Not a standalone system-but combine this simple logic with your existing system and see the #Results for your self !!!

Continuation of the last thread, as I promised, I'm working on 3-4 more stocks, here are few more stocks which can be 2x-3x from current levels till 2024..

Let's Start

#Stock No 7

#Neogen

MCAP 1842 Cr.
ROE 24.1%
ROCE 21.9%

**Leading manufacturer of bromine and lithium based derivatives in India
**Demand of Bromine shifted from China
**Strong Management and Strong outlook
** Founder is Mr H T Kanani, a chemical engineer from IIT Mumbai

#Stock No 8

#JublFood aka Domino's

MCAP 38,017 Cr
ROCE 29.4%
ROE 25.1%

*Strong demand and increasing Stores

*Increasing distribution area

* OPM % standing at highest 26% in Last 2 quarters

*No need to explain the product portfolio 🍕

#Stock No 9

#PolyCab

MCAP 20,737 Cr.
ROCE 29.3%
ROE 22.4%

* Strong management with Strong future Outlook
* Diversified and affordable product portfolio
*Adoption and Innovation of new products
*Strong distribution area
*Reducing Debt

#Stock No 10

#Relaxo

MCAP 21,877 Cr.
ROCE 23.4%
ROE 19%

*Strong demand in rural areas
*Almost debt free
*OPM % standing at highest of 22% in last two quarters
*Diversified and affordable product portfolio