https://t.co/heKE1cB7N8
The Review: GW 18 - A thread
Hi everyone, welcome to the latest edition of “The Review” where I look at Bench Boost, Triple Captaincy and the upcoming double GW 19 in detail:
#FPL #FPLCommunity @OfficialFPL
(Data taken from @FFScout and @FFH_HQ with consent)
https://t.co/heKE1cB7N8
https://t.co/1tZ92vBXIT
I jump straight away to what is the toughest question of the week. I first try and work out which one of the Liverpool midfielders to own:
(read below)
Mins per shot inside the box: 33.73 vs 34.15
Mins per big chance: 96.4 vs 111
Mins per big chance created: 224.8 vs 333
Mins per chance created: 49.9 vs 57.9
Even though Mane’s numbers in comparison to his numbers in the yesteryears have...
(read below)
Mins per shot inside the box: 27.3 vs 26.3
Mins per big chance: 104.8 vs 83.1
Mins per big chance created: 314.5
Mins per chance created: 52.4
As you can see, what's significant to note is that Salah's minute per big chance has...
Mins per shot inside the box: 27.3 vs 42.4
Mins per big chance: 104.8 vs 90
Mins per big chance created: 314.5 vs 180
Mins per chance created: 52.4 vs 48
I now run a comparison to assess Salah’s recent numbers side by side with KDB:
Mins per shot inside the box: 36 vs 41.5
Mins per big chance: 134.75 vs 90
Mins per chance created: 67.4 vs 31.76
Mins per big chance created: 269.5 vs 90
Mins per baseline bonus: 12 v 7.5
Liverpool’s mins per big chance = 31.6 vs Man City’s mins per big chance = 21.7
The numbers are telling, extremely telling and highlight De Bruyne’s form at home of late and Salah’s lack of. As expected, De Bruyne fares far better...
A few weeks ago, I was bullish about using my triple captaincy on Salah this GW. Due to the concerns that I have raised above on Salah’s form this season, I don’t think I’m as confident as I was earlier despite the fact...
This is a very common question this week and one which I’ll try and generalize even though it’s hard to answer without seeing a team on paper. If in the prior weeks you have planned to Bench Boost, then I don’t think the news...
As always, this is a team specific question. Having said that, I think this is one of those rare GWs where it is very hard to have a bad team on paper. I say that because almost all teams with highly owned...
I think it is very important to own the likes of Bruno Fernandes, Mohamed Salah and Kevin De Bruyne this week. I’m assuming it would be impossible for almost all FPL managers to own all...
If I had the luxury to choose whichever one to sell this week, I’d sell Kane over Son. I say that because Son is cheaper, presents more value long term and has the better numbers away from home which...
Son (Away) vs Kane (Away)
Mins per shot inside the box: 53.23 vs 42
Mins per big chance: 76.8 vs 142.8
Mins per chance created: 53.2 vs 47.6
Mins per big chance created: 230.7 vs 142.8
This is a fairly simple one. I don’t think I’d be buying or selling. Yes, there is a concern that after the COVID outbreak, Villa’s assets might be rusty this week but we don’t have a model to reasonably estimate the extent...
I mentioned last GW how DCL’s numbers had dropped of late:
DCL (GW 1-11) v DCL (GW 12-17)
Mins per shot in the box 31.29 v 54.63
Mins per big chance 69.28 v 145.67
In the premium category, there are Timo Werner and Jamie Vardy. Jamie Vardy is the old dog who’s been there and done that. He currently sits top for big chances of all players this season...
I think this could be a great strategy given the options at our disposal. Doubling up on the Man City defence is the gift which keeps on giving – Stones and Dias have now started...
Liverpool (Home 20/21) vs Liverpool (Away 20/21)
Shots conceded inside the box per game: 5.13 vs 5.44
Big chances conceded per game: 1.75 vs 2.33
Mins per big chance: 1219 vs 765
Mins per big chance created: 406.3 vs 218.6
Mins per chance created: 48.8 vs 47.8
Mins per touch in the final third: 2.6 vs 2.4
Mins per baseline bps: 6.2 vs 5.6
First, I look at the influence Antonio has when he plays:
West Ham (GW 1-5 with Antonio) vs West Ham (GW 6-17 without Antonio)
Mins per shot inside the box: 8.65 vs 11.9
Mins per big chance: 45 vs 54
Souček (GW 1-13) vs Souček (GW 14-17)
Mins per shot inside the box: 65 vs 45
Mins per big chance: 234 vs 180
Mins per penalty area touch: 35 vs 18
Incredibly, ∼38% of Souček’s penalty area touches in the opposition’s box all season...
Given the fact that West Ham have the standout double GW fixtures of all mid-priced defences, I analyze their full backs:
Mins per big chance: 1530 vs 1165
Mins per chance created: 61.2 vs 61.3
Mins per big chance created: 510 vs 582.5
Mins per touch in the final third: 6.02 vs 5.24
Mins per baseline bonus: 6.5 vs 6.9
Mins per big chance: 540 vs 450
Mins per chance created: 108 vs 50
Mins per big chance created: 540 vs 450
Mins per touch in the final third: 4.7 v 4.6
Mins per baseline bonus: 8.6 v 5.2

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I await your feedback with anticipation!
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I don't think people understand the vital difference between a well-rehearsed (and physical) team vs a collection of individuals with no real understanding - new players, makeshift centre-backs, other players out of position. Make do an mend when missing a ton of quality = v.hard
Add fatigue,with less option to rotate, and big effort in 3 away games in previous 9 days. Team lacks height and heft without VvD, Matip, Fabinho, Gomez. Team lacks pace and goals without Jota, Mané. Lacks pace at back without VvD and Gomez. No senior keeper undermines confidence
Team has been disrupted constantly this ssn. Rarely below 6 injuries, often = 10. Thiago a real bonus after months out, but the proper team is not around him. Even Gini looked knackered yesterday. 5th/6th-choice strikers and centre-backs will always be a big drop from 1st choices
Last night was a bit grim, and Brighton were excellent. But it was a strong XI for them, in terms of usual players and in terms of physicality. LFC full of skilful slower little guys right now - lacking the skilful bodyguards and pace. Kabak should help, but he's young and new
You can read Mentality Monsters or Perched for how much I talk about the unity of a team, the practiced understanding from years of intense training together, knowing each others runs and movements. Right now it's a team of semi-strangers and stand-ins.
Definitely agree BUT, we should still be beating Burnley and Brighton at home.
— PaulShilly \U0001f339\U0001f339 (@shillcock_paul) February 4, 2021
For me, that is in part, a tactical problem.
Add fatigue,with less option to rotate, and big effort in 3 away games in previous 9 days. Team lacks height and heft without VvD, Matip, Fabinho, Gomez. Team lacks pace and goals without Jota, Mané. Lacks pace at back without VvD and Gomez. No senior keeper undermines confidence
Team has been disrupted constantly this ssn. Rarely below 6 injuries, often = 10. Thiago a real bonus after months out, but the proper team is not around him. Even Gini looked knackered yesterday. 5th/6th-choice strikers and centre-backs will always be a big drop from 1st choices
Last night was a bit grim, and Brighton were excellent. But it was a strong XI for them, in terms of usual players and in terms of physicality. LFC full of skilful slower little guys right now - lacking the skilful bodyguards and pace. Kabak should help, but he's young and new
You can read Mentality Monsters or Perched for how much I talk about the unity of a team, the practiced understanding from years of intense training together, knowing each others runs and movements. Right now it's a team of semi-strangers and stand-ins.
It's time for the NBA Math player power rankings heading into games on Jan. 4!
As always, these are based solely on our Rolling Player Ratings, which are determined by performance over a player's last 10 appearances:
https://t.co/cMK94AC48A
Only the last 10 games matter, and players must have played in the last week to maintain eligibility.
25. Anthony Davis, Los Angeles Lakers: 18.26
24. Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics: 18.35
23. Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers: 18.39
22. Collin Sexton, Cleveland Cavaliers: 18.77
https://t.co/cMK94AC48A
21. Paul George, Los Angeles Clippers: 18.77
20. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks: 18.84
19. DeMar DeRozan, San Antonio Spurs: 18.89
18. Malcolm Brogdon, Indiana Pacers: 19.04
https://t.co/cMK94AC48A
17. Domantas Sabonis, Indiana Pacers: 19.13
16. Nikola Vucevic, Orlando Magic: 19.46
15. Trae Young, Atlanta Hawks: 19.33
14. Jamal Murray, Denver Nuggets: 19.64
https://t.co/cMK94AC48A
As always, these are based solely on our Rolling Player Ratings, which are determined by performance over a player's last 10 appearances:
https://t.co/cMK94AC48A

Only the last 10 games matter, and players must have played in the last week to maintain eligibility.
25. Anthony Davis, Los Angeles Lakers: 18.26
24. Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics: 18.35
23. Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers: 18.39
22. Collin Sexton, Cleveland Cavaliers: 18.77
https://t.co/cMK94AC48A

21. Paul George, Los Angeles Clippers: 18.77
20. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks: 18.84
19. DeMar DeRozan, San Antonio Spurs: 18.89
18. Malcolm Brogdon, Indiana Pacers: 19.04
https://t.co/cMK94AC48A

17. Domantas Sabonis, Indiana Pacers: 19.13
16. Nikola Vucevic, Orlando Magic: 19.46
15. Trae Young, Atlanta Hawks: 19.33
14. Jamal Murray, Denver Nuggets: 19.64
https://t.co/cMK94AC48A

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