Categories Society
7 days
30 days
All time
Recent
Popular
šHappy New Year!š
To kick off 2021, here's an update on:
- S:N501 variants (501Y.V1/V2) with data from 31 Dec 2020
- 69/70del variants
- 20A.EU1 variant (most prevalent variant in Europe)
(Here are some fireworks that look a bit like phylogenies! š)
1/23
The latest sequences from 31 Dec show new sequences in the S:N501Y.V1 variant (originating from SE England) from Netherlands, Denmark, Australia, Italy, Canada, the USA, Germany, Switzerland, & India.
2/23
S:N501 link
https://t.co/TfHfPgBEBS
Image link
https://t.co/3aCKv1pAcI
Canada, Germany, & Switzerland all have sequences that fall in 501Y.V1 for the first time, scattered across the tree.
3/23
The USA also has its first 2 sequences that fall in 501Y.V1, from Colorado & California. India also had its first 3 sequences, also from different regions.
In both cases, the sequences are not connected, indicating separate introductions.
4/23
In countries with previous sequences:
6 new sequences from Netherlands, in orange/yellow (green are older).
1 is clearly separate - zooming in (& in divergence view, coloured by country) it is harder to determine the relationship between the others.
5/23
To kick off 2021, here's an update on:
- S:N501 variants (501Y.V1/V2) with data from 31 Dec 2020
- 69/70del variants
- 20A.EU1 variant (most prevalent variant in Europe)
(Here are some fireworks that look a bit like phylogenies! š)
1/23

The latest sequences from 31 Dec show new sequences in the S:N501Y.V1 variant (originating from SE England) from Netherlands, Denmark, Australia, Italy, Canada, the USA, Germany, Switzerland, & India.
2/23
S:N501 link
https://t.co/TfHfPgBEBS
Image link
https://t.co/3aCKv1pAcI

Canada, Germany, & Switzerland all have sequences that fall in 501Y.V1 for the first time, scattered across the tree.
3/23

The USA also has its first 2 sequences that fall in 501Y.V1, from Colorado & California. India also had its first 3 sequences, also from different regions.
In both cases, the sequences are not connected, indicating separate introductions.
4/23

In countries with previous sequences:
6 new sequences from Netherlands, in orange/yellow (green are older).
1 is clearly separate - zooming in (& in divergence view, coloured by country) it is harder to determine the relationship between the others.
5/23

Thread on the recent report on the possible risk of increased death associated with the new UK variant (B117)- with a discussion of the evidence around this, and what this means.
First, there is strong evidence to support increased transmissibility of B117 - current estimates of increased transmissibility range between 30-70% - from epidemiological evidence examining the differential rate of growth of B117 with respect to other variants & increase in R
There is also evidence from PHE contact studies that the risk of transmission from those carrying the B117 variant is ~50% greater than with other non-B117 variants.
Increased transmissibility, even if a variant has the same fatality rate can increase deaths substantially, because the rate of growth of cases is higher- & more cases means more deaths.
Increased fatality rates also increase deaths- but do so
So how was risk of death with the variant studied?
We don't routinely sequence all samples for the virus. We've found that the variant has a particular deletion which means that some PCR tests on samples with the variant give a different read-out when the variant is present.
First, there is strong evidence to support increased transmissibility of B117 - current estimates of increased transmissibility range between 30-70% - from epidemiological evidence examining the differential rate of growth of B117 with respect to other variants & increase in R
There is also evidence from PHE contact studies that the risk of transmission from those carrying the B117 variant is ~50% greater than with other non-B117 variants.
Increased transmissibility, even if a variant has the same fatality rate can increase deaths substantially, because the rate of growth of cases is higher- & more cases means more deaths.
Increased fatality rates also increase deaths- but do so
How dangerous are the B.1.1.7 and 501Y.V2 hyper-transmissible strains?
— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) January 11, 2021
by @AdamJKucharski @CFR_orghttps://t.co/aycWMN3b5h
h/t @Karl_Lauterbach pic.twitter.com/JlaFzzP06t
So how was risk of death with the variant studied?
We don't routinely sequence all samples for the virus. We've found that the variant has a particular deletion which means that some PCR tests on samples with the variant give a different read-out when the variant is present.