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Thread on the recent report on the possible risk of increased death associated with the new UK variant (B117)- with a discussion of the evidence around this, and what this means.
First, there is strong evidence to support increased transmissibility of B117 - current estimates of increased transmissibility range between 30-70% - from epidemiological evidence examining the differential rate of growth of B117 with respect to other variants & increase in R
There is also evidence from PHE contact studies that the risk of transmission from those carrying the B117 variant is ~50% greater than with other non-B117 variants.
Increased transmissibility, even if a variant has the same fatality rate can increase deaths substantially, because the rate of growth of cases is higher- & more cases means more deaths.
Increased fatality rates also increase deaths- but do so
So how was risk of death with the variant studied?
We don't routinely sequence all samples for the virus. We've found that the variant has a particular deletion which means that some PCR tests on samples with the variant give a different read-out when the variant is present.
First, there is strong evidence to support increased transmissibility of B117 - current estimates of increased transmissibility range between 30-70% - from epidemiological evidence examining the differential rate of growth of B117 with respect to other variants & increase in R
There is also evidence from PHE contact studies that the risk of transmission from those carrying the B117 variant is ~50% greater than with other non-B117 variants.
Increased transmissibility, even if a variant has the same fatality rate can increase deaths substantially, because the rate of growth of cases is higher- & more cases means more deaths.
Increased fatality rates also increase deaths- but do so
How dangerous are the B.1.1.7 and 501Y.V2 hyper-transmissible strains?
— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) January 11, 2021
by @AdamJKucharski @CFR_orghttps://t.co/aycWMN3b5h
h/t @Karl_Lauterbach pic.twitter.com/JlaFzzP06t
So how was risk of death with the variant studied?
We don't routinely sequence all samples for the virus. We've found that the variant has a particular deletion which means that some PCR tests on samples with the variant give a different read-out when the variant is present.
It has clearly been too much to ask. Now that the right has been moved to violence you'd think everybody would go "whoa ok, let's chill" but instead it's full speed ahead on hyprocisy, censorship, and escalation.
You could take the next week to quiet down, reflect on how you contributed to getting here, and then have the usual transition markers, but instead you need to escalate things by trying to throw the guy out.
And not just him, but everyone else remotely associated with him. You created this situation by taking away every avenue people had to try to change direction and have driven them ever further towards the options we do not want them to take.
The Tea Party was the perfect expression of what we expect of voters dissatisfied with the direction of the country to do. They protested peacefully, spoke to their reps at the designated times and places, and ultimately threw the bums out by voting.
The response to this was to label them all racists and for the new bums to promptly spit in their faces. When they tried to rally around everyone except the pre-designated "next-in-line" guy, they got labelled as whackobirds and ignored.
Is it too much to ask for the leaders of both parties start acting like the adults in the room and stop treating political opponents like enemies of the State. If it is too much to ask for then the end of this country is inevitable. And I honestly don't believe that is hyperbole.
— Matthew Kolken (@mkolken) January 8, 2021
You could take the next week to quiet down, reflect on how you contributed to getting here, and then have the usual transition markers, but instead you need to escalate things by trying to throw the guy out.
And not just him, but everyone else remotely associated with him. You created this situation by taking away every avenue people had to try to change direction and have driven them ever further towards the options we do not want them to take.
The Tea Party was the perfect expression of what we expect of voters dissatisfied with the direction of the country to do. They protested peacefully, spoke to their reps at the designated times and places, and ultimately threw the bums out by voting.
The response to this was to label them all racists and for the new bums to promptly spit in their faces. When they tried to rally around everyone except the pre-designated "next-in-line" guy, they got labelled as whackobirds and ignored.