Postcard From Luxembourg: normality is restored prior to vaccination.
I’ve repeatedly said that “test, test, test” is madness, if the tests are unregulated. Why?
‘Because pandemic’, NO PCR mass testing has a declared operational false positive rate.

So we don’t know the oFPR of PCR mass testing in U.K. This is conducted in a small number of private labs, set up at pace in summer, anticipating a ‘2nd wave’ (itself a dubious prediction from the Imperial team who’ve been wrong every time before). You’d assume these “Lighthouse
...Labs are surely regulated, inspected, accredited etc. They’re doing the most impactful medical diagnostic testing which has ever happened in history. But no. None of these are true. ‘Because pandemic’. Now, I don’t know the oFPR either. But we’re paying for it. It is NOT ZERO.
However, the authorities take every positive result as a “confirmed case” (though there’s nothing confirmed). There is no open protocol you can examine & debate. None of the results are available for understanding, thinking & interpretation. Wouldn’t it be important to learn...
...how the distribution of cycle threshold for positives varies through a run of tens of thousands of samples? Or through time? Or across geography? There is no routine evaluation of the characteristics of the test, even though we know the oFPR of complex systems is subject to...
...variability due to multiple intrinsic factors that have nothing to do with the PCR part of the chain of custody of the sample.
With very high numbers of tests per day, even low oFPR can make a major contribution to the apparent number of “cases”. It’s not correct to assume...
...that a value for oFPR obtained previously & elsewhere with a test conducted by others under completely different circumstances applies here. It’s easy, cheap & fast to measure it. That it’s never done tells me that the normal rules of good scientific practise have been put...
...to one side.
It’s worth stepping back & asking “if mass testing is untrustworthy & unregulated, why are we doing ever more of it?”
It’s a good question.
Why we ever started down this road is another. Recall what humans have done for millennia when trying to assess if a...
...person represents a potential respiratory illness threat? We look closely at one another, looking for symptoms that warn us “this person could make us ill”. In the absence of such symptoms, no special precautions are needed. But in 2020, for the first time in history, we...
...were told we could have respiratory disease without symptoms & that we could infect others despite having no symptoms. This so-called “asymptomatic transmission” actually isn’t important. The whole story was concocted from flimsy evidence: 6 individual ‘case reports’ & no...
...more than 7 individuals! In the entire world! This is ‘evidence’? When the most famous example turned out to be fraudulent yet the case report wasn’t withdrawn? (a person was said to have infected many others, yet had no symptom. It turned out they did have symptoms & had...
...taken medicines as best they could to suppress their symptoms so they could continue their work).
Armed now with the novel concept of “asymptomatic transmission” & funded mightily by the taxpayer, private labs went full steam ahead on mass testing. Remember, we’ve no idea...
...what the oFPR is. It matters hugely. Most people don’t appreciate that the importance of a FPR cannot be assessed just by knowing it. If I was to suggest it was, for example, 2%, you might think that means, approximately, that 98% of the results are OK. But it doesn’t mean...
...that at all, and it’s probably a weakness in the definitions. Because what we really want to know is “what is the false diagnosis rate? How often is a positive result incorrect?” and the oFPR does not tell you that, not on its own. We also need to know the prevalence of the...
...thing we’re trying to measure. And it’s rather chicken & egg, if we use the sample measuring instrument to do that! Imagine the prevalence was also 2%. Now with an oFPR of 2%, the number of ‘cases’ is right only half the time. Even this doesn’t sound too bad, does it?
There’s still a raging pandemic on, right? Well, hold on. What if the oFPR is a little higher? What if the real prevalence is a little lower? It really doesn’t take very much, once the oFPR is bigger than the prevalence for the false diagnosis rate to skyrocket.
Bluntly, I...
...that particular Euro cent has dropped with decision makers in Luxembourg & they’ve tapered the mass testing. That is all it takes, if an undeclared oFPR & prevalence part company enough, then mass testing becomes the illness, not the virus. You can & should still “test, test..
...test”. But focus efforts only on those with symptoms. Never test blindly in the general population. Blazing away with a mass testing system where it’s literally impossible to take a guess at the false diagnosis rate is highly irresponsible. Even the scientists in those labs...
...know this, because is “diagnostic testing for beginners”. It’s not controversial. It’s not ‘denialism’. I want to know true prevalence as much as anyone. I’m telling you as an experienced lab scientist that you cannot guess at FDR based on the information available. But it’s..
...not zero. It has a value & it will vary, so you also need to know its range. We don’t know that, either. Not only is the FDR not zero & is unknown, but it’s entirely possible that it’s high. Certainly possible that it’s high enough to change how you’d see the whole situation.
So today’s plea (again) is to demand from those running the labs & to anyone in authority: do these simple, low cost & quick experiments. If you won’t, it’s not possible to ascribe good motives to what you’re doing & profiting hugely from. Maybe there’s someone working in one...
...of those labs who has uncertainties about what they’re part of & the impact of untrustworthy data on society? If this is you, please do something.
Everyone else, please know that until proper validation is done on the PCR mass testing system, the daily number of “cases”...
...that you’re being told about & even the number of those dying a “Covid death” are both completely meaningless. They might be correct, though I very much doubt it. There’s extraordinarily clear evidence emerging of large scale misattribution of covid19 deaths in the public...
...record. Hold on: if that’s true (& it it is) doesn’t it mean that the false diagnosis rate could be very high? Doesn’t it mean that it MUST be high? Why, yes & yes. It means exactly that.
Once that penny drops, you surely appreciate what it means? That none of the data can...
...be trusted. Even officialdom cannot know you what extent the official record fairly reflects or hugely deviates from the reality.
If I’m right - and I believe I am by all logical means - then as the daily numbers aren’t reliable, they’re no longer measuring properly a...
...natural phenomenon but something to do with the characteristics of the testing system. And if that’s true...what is happening won’t fade away naturally, not even if the vaccines do what is hoped.
So be more Luxembourgish today. Think whether you’re content with our testing.

More from Yardley Yeadon

@ukiswitheu I invite people to run the thought experiment: “what if the ‘cases’ data is inaccurate?”
Ignore ‘cases’, look instead only at excess deaths (per M Levitt’s tweet). Does that look characteristic of an epidemic? It’s completely diff from spring or any winter flu outbreak.
London:


Can anyone explain why there is no ‘2nd wave’ of excess deaths in London, without invoking herd immunity?
It’s not lockdown. See NW England:
This is the largest #SecondaryRipple (which I predicted).


https://t.co/b0rT5Lq9HI
Now check the 3 predictions I made months ago. They’ve all happened. Compare predictions from SAGE’s statements: they’re all wrong.
Even neutrals at this point might ask themselves “if he’s been right on all predictions, maybe he’s correct now?”


I’ve been saying since the Lighthouse Labs got up & running that I’m deeply sceptical about the trustworthiness of their ‘cases’ data. I showed how, at low virus prevalence, the PCR mass testing data was throwing out potentially 90% positives being

https://t.co/t4qQN4rH0u
I got ‘fact checked’ a LOT over that statement. This paper just published, about precisely that time period I speculated about. Turns out that high-80s% of Dr Healy’s positives by PCR were FALSE. This alone is sufficient in my view to throw severe doubt...

More from Society

global health policy in 2020 has centered around NPI's (non-pharmaceutical interventions) like distancing, masks, school closures

these have been sold as a way to stop infection as though this were science.

this was never true and that fact was known and knowable.

let's look.


above is the plot of social restriction and NPI vs total death per million. there is 0 R2. this means that the variables play no role in explaining one another.

we can see this same relationship between NPI and all cause deaths.

this is devastating to the case for NPI.


clearly, correlation is not proof of causality, but a total lack of correlation IS proof that there was no material causality.

barring massive and implausible coincidence, it's essentially impossible to cause something and not correlate to it, especially 51 times.

this would seem to pose some very serious questions for those claiming that lockdowns work, those basing policy upon them, and those claiming this is the side of science.

there is no science here nor any data. this is the febrile imaginings of discredited modelers.

this has been clear and obvious from all over the world since the beginning and had been proven so clearly by may that it's hard to imagine anyone who is actually conversant with the data still believing in these responses.

everyone got the same R
1/ A thread of comments & observations about the death of the cackling vampire Rush Limbaugh.

My first observations in the main thread are here, but this offshoot is needed because there's been so many wise & witty things I've


2/ First, re: those who in their wayward moral obtuseness feel we "can't speak ill of the dead." I've said that this is what abuse enablers say, but I hear that some religious traditions preach this. Oy.
So there's this: https://t.co/7Ky4RA3nkZ &


3/ Drucker is another great wit, and this carries the proper mood


4/ There's definitely a Jewish Tradition angle for how to treat evil people who die: the only respect is to justice, right & wrong, and above all compassion's existence necessitates condemning cruelty


5/ We're coming up on #Purim, and that's all about how to remember evil. There may be a reason, then, that I share the attitude of many other people committed to righting

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🌺कैसे बने गरुड़ भगवान विष्णु के वाहन और क्यों दो भागों में फटी होती है नागों की जिह्वा🌺

महर्षि कश्यप की तेरह पत्नियां थीं।लेकिन विनता व कद्रु नामक अपनी दो पत्नियों से उन्हे विशेष लगाव था।एक दिन महर्षि आनन्दभाव में बैठे थे कि तभी वे दोनों उनके समीप आकर उनके पैर दबाने लगी।


प्रसन्न होकर महर्षि कश्यप बोले,"मुझे तुम दोनों से विशेष लगाव है, इसलिए यदि तुम्हारी कोई विशेष इच्छा हो तो मुझे बताओ। मैं उसे अवश्य पूरा करूंगा ।"

कद्रू बोली,"स्वामी! मेरी इच्छा है कि मैं हज़ार पुत्रों की मां बनूंगी।"
विनता बोली,"स्वामी! मुझे केवल एक पुत्र की मां बनना है जो इतना बलवान हो की कद्रू के हज़ार पुत्रों पर भारी पड़े।"
महर्षि बोले,"शीघ्र ही मैं यज्ञ करूंगा और यज्ञ के उपरांत तुम दोनो की इच्छाएं अवश्य पूर्ण होंगी"।


महर्षि ने यज्ञ किया,विनता व कद्रू को आशीर्वाद देकर तपस्या करने चले गए। कुछ काल पश्चात कद्रू ने हज़ार अंडों से काले सर्पों को जन्म दिया व विनता ने एक अंडे से तेजस्वी बालक को जन्म दिया जिसका नाम गरूड़ रखा।जैसे जैसे समय बीता गरुड़ बलवान होता गया और कद्रू के पुत्रों पर भारी पड़ने लगा


परिणामस्वरूप दिन प्रतिदिन कद्रू व विनता के सम्बंधों में कटुता बढ़ती गयी।एकदिन जब दोनो भ्रमण कर रहीं थी तब कद्रू ने दूर खड़े सफेद घोड़े को देख कर कहा,"बता सकती हो विनता!दूर खड़ा वो घोड़ा किस रंग का है?"
विनता बोली,"सफेद रंग का"।
तो कद्रू बोली,"शर्त लगाती हो? इसकी पूँछ तो काली है"।