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Saved by @Mollyycolllinss

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Quite a surprise. Ferguson isn’t qualified to comment on such things. He lacks understanding of basic biological concepts, partly explaining why his predictions are often so extreme.

 That said, I’ll take him as an ally. It’s clear we’re already at herd immunity. How can I be sure? London had a huge peak of excess deaths in spring. The timing of peak deaths showed clearly that the pandemic was self-limiting. Recall much debate about whether the interval...
...between lockdown & peak deaths was long enough for lockdown to have been the cause of reducing deaths? The answer was “no”. But it was close & I can understand people thinking “well, it’s close, so perhaps it was lockdown that did it?”, thereby establishing a foundational...
...myth favoured by those who genuinely believe lockdown saves lives (it clearly doesn’t).
I’ll get to London & here immunity. But those wavering about the evidence about lockdown in spring really will benefit from cogitating on this graph.
In blue are the 30 trusts with the earliest date of peak deaths in spring. In red, the 30 with the latest peak deaths. For me, this is proof that national lockdown, which began Mar 23, played no role whatsoever in turning the pandemic. You’ll see some areas had peak daily...
...deaths numbers occur before lockdown. Others so close to lockdown that obviously the intervention was far too close to peak daily deaths that lockdown can’t even have contributed to turning the pandemic. Even harder for pro-lockdown folk is the marked range in dates of peak...
...daily deaths across the country. The lockdown thesis is that this intervention sufficiently reduced social contacts that the spread of the virus was abruptly slowed & that pushed Rt below 1. That’s what saved us. But if that was even close to what happened, the dates of peak..
...daily deaths would be close together in time, perhaps a few days variation. That’s not what we see. Looking at the trusts with earliest to latest peak daily deaths we see variation of a whole month. Furthermore, the trusts with earliest turning points are mostly London and...
...those with latest turning points furthest from London. I can conceive of no crisper evidence that (1) lockdown was not responsible for turning the spring pandemic & therefore (2) something else was responsible for the abrupt turning of the pandemic. As yet, no one, not SAGE...
...nor anyone else has come up with an explanation for this data that doesn’t involve a rapidly reducing proportion of the population who remain susceptible to the virus, aka herd immunity.
What this means is that almost all of U.K. experienced what’s called unmitigated...
...spreading of the virus. Just like Sweden. It’s not surprising then that we’ve ended up with identical population fatality (0.08%).
Back to London. Three months ago, I wrote a detailed article which contained several predictions.
https://t.co/b0rT5Lq9HI
At the heart of things, I laid out why SAGE’s advice to Govt was seriously in error. If SAGE was correct, we’d expect the pandemic to resume in a similar pattern to spring, the deaths to increase in the typical respiratory virus pattern of a clear spike & importantly for excess..
...deaths in London to be marked (it was the epicentre in spring). For this next part, I recommend we set to one side for a moment the label “covid19 deaths”, because there’s some controversy about the reliability of PCR mass testing. Prof Whitty himself guided us to look at...
...excess deaths as the best indication of progress of the virus. So let’s do that. London has not had excess deaths at all this autumn & winter. That means SAGE was flatly wrong & without crowing it turns out I was closer in my prediction. Here’s the official data. Note that...
...the data is sufficiently sensitive a record to pick out the deaths associated with the August heatwave. But the daily deaths are not greater than the five year average all the way through autumn & winter. I agree with Prof Ferguson. But he’s months off the pace. The data...
...was unequivocal that SAGE’s narrative has been demonstrably wrong by early summer last year. Once it’s realised that lockdown 1 wasn’t the force that turned the pandemic in spring, lots of other things we’ve been told cannot be true. I’m willing to ascribe their errors to...
...ignorance. They didn’t have an immunologist on their team in spring. So what is obvious to me might not even have crossed their minds or entered into their mathematical models.
SAGE’s errors unfortunately have been compounded & their mistaken narrative is gradually destroying
...the country in every way. Remember the other predictions I made & how they contrast with reasonable inferences from SAGE’s position? I predicted what I termed a #SecondaryRipple which was characterised by regional outbreaks which would be self-limiting & overall excess...
...deaths rather modest compared with spring. Again, let’s follow Whitty’s advice to be guided by excess deaths & not labelling of cause of deaths (because total deaths is agreed to be objective). What we’ve seen in autumn & winter is a slow ramp of excess deaths. This is...
...because each mini outbreak is uncoordinated in time across the country. And the total excess deaths has been small compared with spring. In fact, recent PHE weekly reports have shown low to no excess deaths.
This is completely consistent with national herd immunity, with local self limiting outbreaks possible but impossible to see a widespread & growing epidemic. Note that official data shows there is no public health emergency due to the virus. I’m not going to get into the whole...
...business of misattribution of cause of death due to untrustworthy PCR mass testing again (yesterday’s thread covered that). Please follow Whitty’s advice & be guided by excess deaths. Once you do that, the whole position is seen for what it is: a reality in complete contrast..
...with the narrative of fear. I’ll close by again encouraging those at elevated risk of severe outcomes from the virus to consider getting vaccinated. It isn’t wise to do so if you’re not at elevated risk. I also repeat my demand that mass testing of the population ceases. It...
...is simply not necessary & because of unknown unreliability, I believe it’s main product is false positives, fear & superfluous ‘control measures’ which don’t work, while hurting everyone.
If anyone on SAGE reads this, please look to your conscience & alter course.

More from Yardley Yeadon

Yardley Yeadon
Yardley Yeadon
@MichaelYeadon3
I urge all followers who have read my criticisms of PCR mass testing in U.K. to carefully read Mr Fordham’s carefully worded letter. Note that the innovation minister in the Lords, Lord Bethel, already admitted that the PCR system doesn’t have the equivalent of an MOT. https://t.co/zXzeDMKCBb


Without this information it’s impossible to interpret any result. If the oFPR is 4%, for example, and if the true prevalence is 0.3% (it’s probably less), then for every 10,000 tests, 400 positives would be false & 30 positives would be genuine. So 93% of positives are false.

As Mr Fordham points out, almost all policies pivot on PCR mass testing. Hancock previously admitted on talkRADIO to Julia Hartley-Brewer in late summer that the FPR was “just under 1%”. That was a flat lie (possibly inadvertent but he’s never corrected the record). The reason...

...we are sure Hancock told a lie is that they have never known the FPR. Those including Hancock who believe that the oFPR can be estimated by inspection of the lowest positivity ever recorded, while logical, is completely wrong. Changes in personnel, throughout, testing...

...architecture & the like can radically alter the oFPR. Since Hancock’s remark in late summer, PCR mass testing has moved into the Lighthouse Labs & this creates a new & urgent need to continually assess oFPR. I’ve good reason to believe it’s now VERY much higher now that the...
SOCIETY
Yardley Yeadon
Yardley Yeadon
@MichaelYeadon3
@DesmondSwayne Sir Desmond is right. SAGE makes mathematical predictions based on flawed models.
I chose to stick my neck out almost 4mo ago here:
https://t.co/b0rT5Lq9HI
I experienced much anxiety doing this, aware that, if I was badly wrong here, I would be destroyed as a contributor.

That said, I thought the immunology so clear that I made three, specific & testable predictions which should apply if I was right.
Please examine them, on the right, under the pie chart:


In particular, I predicted that the epidemic would not reignite in London. Obviously, we have many “cases” but I urge people to disregard these & instead to look at excess deaths, on the principle that a severe (occasionally lethal) respiratory virus would show itself this way.

Here is a chart showing the trend of deaths in London alone over recent years. A prominent peak of deaths is evident as the virus swept through in spring. Also visible the August heatwave. But there are no excess deaths now.
I submit this is a striking example of herd immunity.


I’m still waiting for SAGE or indeed anyone to provide an alternative explanation for the sharp nature of the spring excess deaths peak which doesn’t involve herd immunity or otherwise removing from the pool those vulnerable to lethal outcomes (same result). Given this sharp...
MATHS
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Yardley Yeadon
Yardley Yeadon
@MichaelYeadon3
Postcard From Luxembourg: normality is restored prior to vaccination.
I’ve repeatedly said that “test, test, test” is madness, if the tests are unregulated. Why?
‘Because pandemic’, NO PCR mass testing has a declared operational false positive rate.

So we don’t know the oFPR of PCR mass testing in U.K. This is conducted in a small number of private labs, set up at pace in summer, anticipating a ‘2nd wave’ (itself a dubious prediction from the Imperial team who’ve been wrong every time before). You’d assume these “Lighthouse

...Labs are surely regulated, inspected, accredited etc. They’re doing the most impactful medical diagnostic testing which has ever happened in history. But no. None of these are true. ‘Because pandemic’. Now, I don’t know the oFPR either. But we’re paying for it. It is NOT ZERO.

However, the authorities take every positive result as a “confirmed case” (though there’s nothing confirmed). There is no open protocol you can examine & debate. None of the results are available for understanding, thinking & interpretation. Wouldn’t it be important to learn...

...how the distribution of cycle threshold for positives varies through a run of tens of thousands of samples? Or through time? Or across geography? There is no routine evaluation of the characteristics of the test, even though we know the oFPR of complex systems is subject to...
SOCIETY
Yardley Yeadon
Yardley Yeadon
@MichaelYeadon3
@ukiswitheu I invite people to run the thought experiment: “what if the ‘cases’ data is inaccurate?”
Ignore ‘cases’, look instead only at excess deaths (per M Levitt’s tweet). Does that look characteristic of an epidemic? It’s completely diff from spring or any winter flu outbreak.
London:


Can anyone explain why there is no ‘2nd wave’ of excess deaths in London, without invoking herd immunity?
It’s not lockdown. See NW England:
This is the largest #SecondaryRipple (which I predicted).


https://t.co/b0rT5Lq9HI
Now check the 3 predictions I made months ago. They’ve all happened. Compare predictions from SAGE’s statements: they’re all wrong.
Even neutrals at this point might ask themselves “if he’s been right on all predictions, maybe he’s correct now?”


I’ve been saying since the Lighthouse Labs got up & running that I’m deeply sceptical about the trustworthiness of their ‘cases’ data. I showed how, at low virus prevalence, the PCR mass testing data was throwing out potentially 90% positives being

https://t.co/t4qQN4rH0u
I got ‘fact checked’ a LOT over that statement. This paper just published, about precisely that time period I speculated about. Turns out that high-80s% of Dr Healy’s positives by PCR were FALSE. This alone is sufficient in my view to throw severe doubt...
FOR LATER READ
Yardley Yeadon
Yardley Yeadon
@MichaelYeadon3
In a number of Sunday papers:
Scientific advisers said it was “hard to see” when the restrictions would end as new variants continued to emerge, delivering a potentially devastating blow to the travel industry. The prime minister said that after progress with vaccinations...

...”what we don’t want to see is all that work undone by the arrival of a new variant that is vaccine-busting”.
The idea is planted in people’s mind that this virus is mutating in such a way as to evade prior immunity. This is completely unfounded, certainly as regards immunity..

...gained naturally, after repelling the virus (which well around 99.9% of the population do, fewer, obviously in the very elderly & already ill, more in those younger & well). It’s important to appreciate that upon infection, the human immune system cuts up an infectious...

...agent into short pieces. Each of these short pieces of protein are presented to other cells in the immune system, like an identity parade. Our cells have a truly astonishing range of abilities to recognise different protein structures, and there will be some which recognise...

...each of the pieces of the invader. The cells which recognise a piece are instructed to multiply selectively so that, after a few days to a couple of weeks, our bodies contain large numbers of virus piece specific cells. These have a range of functions. Some make antibodies...
SCIENCE

More from Science

Robbie Andrew
Robbie Andrew
@robbie_andrew
"NO LONGER BEST IN THE WORLD"
UNEP's new Human Development Index includes a new (separate) index: Planetary pressures-adjusted HDI (PHDI). News in Norway is that its position drops from #1 to #16 because of this, while Ireland rises from #2 to #1.
Why?

https://t.co/aVraIEzRfh


Check out Norway's 'Domestic Material Consumption'. Fossil fuels are no different here to Ireland's. What's different is this huge 'non-metallic minerals' category.
(Note also the jump in 1998, suggesting data problems.)
https://t.co/5QvzONbqmN


In Norway's case, it looks like the apparent consumption equation (production+imports-exports) for non-metal minerals is dominated by production: extraction of material in Norway.
https://t.co/5QvzONbqmN


And here we see that this production of non-metallic minerals is sand, gravel and crushed rock for construction. So it's about Norway's geology.
https://t.co/y6rqWmFVWc


Norway drops 15 places on the PHDI list not because of its CO₂ emissions (fairly high at 41st highest in the world per capita), but because of its geology, because it shifts a lot of rock whenever it builds anything.
SCIENCE
JS Oakie\U0001f4dcProtect the 4th Amendment.
JS Oakie📜Protect the 4...
@OakieJs
I think we have to expand our thinking about the toroidal sphere even more. When looking at maps, I noticed the da Vinci map, from 1514, which uses the Reuleaux Triangle. This triangle is formed from 3 intersecting circles, and is in the center of a trefoil.


The trefoil is the focal point in many gothic structures, repeatedly and prominently shown. It is represented in many ways. ‘Going down the rabbit hole’ now makes sense, if you understand the center point of the ears is the center of the torus, with the rabbit trefoil.


The trefoil can be found within the toroidal field. Here is a fun site, where you can manipulate it yourself. https://t.co/FCMcybuuFC


The wiki page makes it seem like there isn’t much of importance with the Reuleaux Triangle, besides being used for coinage, or some stupid bike. But the Wankel engine is an interesting engine, using this geometric design https://t.co/ayPOgkAqGN


https://t.co/m9EaWwF796
SCIENCE
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Phil Plait
Phil Plait
@BadAstronomer
1/ Today is #BlackHoleFriday, an annual science outreach event that, by complete coincidence I’m sure, is done on #BlackFriday. You’ll read lots of cool stuff about black holes on the hashtag. Here’s mine.


2/ Black holes are weird. Duh. People like to think of them as something like incredibly dense nuggets of stuff that sucks other stuff in. But they’re not like that.

3/ If you squeeze enough mass into a small enough volume, the gravity gets so intense that it’s impossible to escape them *if you get too close*. From far away, though, gravitationally they more or less act like anything with that much mass.

4/ So if the Sun turns into a black hole we wouldn’t get drawn in. In fact, we’d orbit it almost exactly the same way as we do now, though we’d freeze to death pretty rapidly, which, in the end, would still kinda suck.

5/ Black holes get weird *when you get close*. Anything with mass warps space — we feel that warp as gravity! — but black holes stretch space to its limit.
SCIENCE
Sean McClure
Sean McClure
@sean_a_mcclure
@engexplain @nntaleb 1/10
Science is assumed to be “evidence-based” but that term alone doesn’t mean much. What constitutes good evidence? How is evidence being used? Is it supporting or refuting a hypothesis? Was the hypothesis and experimental design predetermined or found ex post facto?

@nntaleb 2/10
The reality is you can find “evidence” for almost any narrative. Limit the sample size, cherry-pick studies, etc. Systematic reviews, meta analyses, and randomized controlled trials are all susceptible to selective interpretation/narrative fallacy.

@nntaleb 3/10
At the heart of the problem is the over-reliance on simplistic statistical techniques that do little more than quantify 2 things moving together.

@nntaleb 4/10
Take Pearson’s correlation, based on covariance. Variation can increase simultaneously across 2 variables for countless reasons, most of which are spurious. Yet this simple notion of “causality” undergirds much of scientific literature.

@nntaleb 5/10
Information-theoretic (entropy based) approaches on the other hand can assess *general* measures of dependence. Rather than some specialized (linear) view based on concurrent variation, entropy encompasses the amount of information contained in and between variables.
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Michael Adebayo \U0001f1f3\U0001f1ec\U0001f1eb\U0001f1f7
Michael Adebayo 🇳🇬🇫🇷...
@MichAdebayo
Wonder why your Ph.D./Master's application is being rejected?

Here are some insider reasons (from a committee member) that result in such "Love Letters" 👇

- A Short Thread

1) First, you should know that sometimes, an independent reviewer is required (especially in the US) to review applications even after PIs must have selected their candidates. So, even if any bias slips through the PI, the independent reviewer will pick it up.

2) Having said this, there are three major issues that application reviewers/committees often find with your application. These three components make your applications almost challenging to assess.

3) NUMBER ONE - Incomplete Applications

This occurs when you do not upload the requested documents needed to evaluate your file. Think of a candidate that did not send a GRE score when the institution clearly requires it for admission.

4) NUMBER TWO - Error laden Essays

This is particularly interesting because based on reports from this resource person, it is not particularly about how little your experience is but how you communicate it error-free or at least extensively minimized. This gives headache!
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@hathyogi31
#3/thread on Angkor wat

Christianity and islam may be the largest religion of today’s world but Sanatan dharm has the largest religious monument in the world in the form of Angkor wat. It is situated in combodia and spread across over 400 acres / 1.6 km².


It was listed as a UNESCO World Heritage Site in 1992, which encouraged an international effort to save the complex.
It was originally built as a Hindu temple dedicated to the god Vishnu. In Khmer, the Cambodian language, Angkor means "city" and Wat means "temple grounds".


So Angkor Wat means "Temple City". Its original name was Vrah Vishnuloka or Parama Vishnuloka, meaning the sacred dwelling of Vishnu in Sanskrit.
But, it gradually turned into a Buddhist temple towards the end of the 12th century & is still used for worship today.


Angkor Wat was initially designed and constructed in the first half of the 12th century, during the reign of Suryavarman II, as the king’s state temple and capital city. It was built without the aid of any machinery, as there was no machinery available at that time.


Evidence for these dates comes in part from inscriptions, which are vague, but also from the architectural design and artistic style of the temple and its associated sculptures.

Another aspect is that the five central towers of Angkor Wat symbolize the peaks of Mount Meru,
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Corey Lynn \U0001f64f\U0001f1fa\U0001f1f8
Corey Lynn 🙏🇺🇸...
@CoreysDigs
1) OBSERVATION: The frequencies are changing. I would have to assess stats on the electromagnetic field to see its fluctuations. All I know is, I am highly sensitive to energy/frequencies, and they are changing, because…

2) 2 Weeks ago, my dog was effected by it as well. He is hearing things that aren’t technically audible. I can tell by his body language and sounds. One week ago I began feeling a pressure in my head and ears. It wasn’t painful at all, but it was intense for a bit.

3) It reminded me of taking off in an airplane a bit. I felt like I was in a vacuum. It went on and off for a couple of days. I’ve picked up on frequencies and high pitched sounds (not audible to most) for 30 years, and today my right ear began to ring for longer than usual.

4) This is nothing unusual for me, with exception of the duration. This happens often with me. No, it’s not tinnitus. Only this time, when I spoke, there was reverb creating a high pitch in my ear from my voice. This lasted for about 30 minutes. It did not hurt, just annoying.

5) So yes, the frequencies are changing. What this means exactly, I am unsure of at the moment. Some will say electromagnetic fields, others will say ascension, and some will say pole shift. I honestly can’t say at this very moment.
SCIENCE
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Nikita Poojary
Nikita Poojary
@niki_poojary
One of the most successful stock trader with special focus on cash stocks and who has a very creative mind to look out for opportunities in dark times

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How Manas used this info to book


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Example 2: Booking profits when the stock is extended from 10WMA

10WMA =


Another hack to identify extended move in a stock:

Too many green days!

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SCREENERS , A SCREENER
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श्रीमाली हितेश अवस्थी...
@HiteshAwasthi89
Sri Maha Bhairavar Rudhra alayam, Chengalpet, Tamilnadu

This temple is being constructed merely on the instructions from Bhairava by his devotee Shri Bhairava Siddhantham Swamy. The Temple is fully enshrinedin a transparent glass enclosure..1/n


with Rudrakshas on both the sides of the entrance This temple has a circular Sanctum Sanctorum which has twelve stepseach representing a sign of zodiac and after that twelve steps we find the supreme deity of this temple Sri Kshetra Paata Bhairava. 2/n


Beneath the Bhairava, in the lower level are installed the Ashta Bhairavas, SapthaRishis in the form of stones, and Saptha Kannis in the form of brass lamps. Thereare a number of little blue and white lights in the ceiling that is shaped like a dome.. 3/n


which give an ethereal atmosphere when switched on. The steps representthe twelve signs of the zodiac and when one steps over them to reach thesanctum sanctorum all the doshas pertaining to the horoscope are cleared onceand for all..4/n


The Sthala Vriksham ”Peepal Tree” which is grown on a pedestal, a trident which is considered as Bhairavi, Pancha Mukha Anjaneya, Prathyankara Devi, Subramanya, Rudra Vinayaga, Vaishnavi Devi, Naga Rudra, Eswara, Vana Durga etc. 5/5

#IncredibleBharat
#DekhoApnaDesh
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sriram \U0001f1ee\U0001f1f3
sriram 🇮🇳...
@SriramKannan77
Saptapadi

The most essential rite (Sanskrit: rītī) of a Hindu marriage ceremony is Saptapadi (English: seven steps, saptapadī). Saptapadi is a Sanskrit term that means "seven steps." The wedded couple walks seven steps after tying the Mangalsutra, which is known as Saptapadi.


The couple legally becomes husband and wife after the seventh step.
Hindu wedding rituals: During Saath Phere, the bride and groom exchange their marital vows while circumambulating (walking around) the sacred fire seven times.


This is because the bride and groom exchange marriage vows and hope for a happy married life together.

1. The first marriage vow, out of seven, is a petition to the Lord for nutrition and nourishment for the Hindu bride and groom.


2. Hindu Bride and Groom: The second marriage promise is for strength in sickness, health, good times, and terrible times.

3. For the Hindu Bride and Groom - The third marriage promise is for the Hindu bride and groom's prosperity.

4. For Hindu Bride and Groom - The fourth pledge is to stand by their families in good times and bad.
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