BC SCIENCE
Saved by @Mollyycolllinss

https://t.co/xvP6tVlIaE
Quite a surprise. Ferguson isn’t qualified to comment on such things. He lacks understanding of basic biological concepts, partly explaining why his predictions are often so extreme.

 That said, I’ll take him as an ally. It’s clear we’re already at herd immunity. How can I be sure? London had a huge peak of excess deaths in spring. The timing of peak deaths showed clearly that the pandemic was self-limiting. Recall much debate about whether the interval...
...between lockdown & peak deaths was long enough for lockdown to have been the cause of reducing deaths? The answer was “no”. But it was close & I can understand people thinking “well, it’s close, so perhaps it was lockdown that did it?”, thereby establishing a foundational...
...myth favoured by those who genuinely believe lockdown saves lives (it clearly doesn’t).
I’ll get to London & here immunity. But those wavering about the evidence about lockdown in spring really will benefit from cogitating on this graph.
In blue are the 30 trusts with the earliest date of peak deaths in spring. In red, the 30 with the latest peak deaths. For me, this is proof that national lockdown, which began Mar 23, played no role whatsoever in turning the pandemic. You’ll see some areas had peak daily...
...deaths numbers occur before lockdown. Others so close to lockdown that obviously the intervention was far too close to peak daily deaths that lockdown can’t even have contributed to turning the pandemic. Even harder for pro-lockdown folk is the marked range in dates of peak...
...daily deaths across the country. The lockdown thesis is that this intervention sufficiently reduced social contacts that the spread of the virus was abruptly slowed & that pushed Rt below 1. That’s what saved us. But if that was even close to what happened, the dates of peak..
...daily deaths would be close together in time, perhaps a few days variation. That’s not what we see. Looking at the trusts with earliest to latest peak daily deaths we see variation of a whole month. Furthermore, the trusts with earliest turning points are mostly London and...
...those with latest turning points furthest from London. I can conceive of no crisper evidence that (1) lockdown was not responsible for turning the spring pandemic & therefore (2) something else was responsible for the abrupt turning of the pandemic. As yet, no one, not SAGE...
...nor anyone else has come up with an explanation for this data that doesn’t involve a rapidly reducing proportion of the population who remain susceptible to the virus, aka herd immunity.
What this means is that almost all of U.K. experienced what’s called unmitigated...
...spreading of the virus. Just like Sweden. It’s not surprising then that we’ve ended up with identical population fatality (0.08%).
Back to London. Three months ago, I wrote a detailed article which contained several predictions.
https://t.co/b0rT5Lq9HI
At the heart of things, I laid out why SAGE’s advice to Govt was seriously in error. If SAGE was correct, we’d expect the pandemic to resume in a similar pattern to spring, the deaths to increase in the typical respiratory virus pattern of a clear spike & importantly for excess..
...deaths in London to be marked (it was the epicentre in spring). For this next part, I recommend we set to one side for a moment the label “covid19 deaths”, because there’s some controversy about the reliability of PCR mass testing. Prof Whitty himself guided us to look at...
...excess deaths as the best indication of progress of the virus. So let’s do that. London has not had excess deaths at all this autumn & winter. That means SAGE was flatly wrong & without crowing it turns out I was closer in my prediction. Here’s the official data. Note that...
...the data is sufficiently sensitive a record to pick out the deaths associated with the August heatwave. But the daily deaths are not greater than the five year average all the way through autumn & winter. I agree with Prof Ferguson. But he’s months off the pace. The data...
...was unequivocal that SAGE’s narrative has been demonstrably wrong by early summer last year. Once it’s realised that lockdown 1 wasn’t the force that turned the pandemic in spring, lots of other things we’ve been told cannot be true. I’m willing to ascribe their errors to...
...ignorance. They didn’t have an immunologist on their team in spring. So what is obvious to me might not even have crossed their minds or entered into their mathematical models.
SAGE’s errors unfortunately have been compounded & their mistaken narrative is gradually destroying
...the country in every way. Remember the other predictions I made & how they contrast with reasonable inferences from SAGE’s position? I predicted what I termed a #SecondaryRipple which was characterised by regional outbreaks which would be self-limiting & overall excess...
...deaths rather modest compared with spring. Again, let’s follow Whitty’s advice to be guided by excess deaths & not labelling of cause of deaths (because total deaths is agreed to be objective). What we’ve seen in autumn & winter is a slow ramp of excess deaths. This is...
...because each mini outbreak is uncoordinated in time across the country. And the total excess deaths has been small compared with spring. In fact, recent PHE weekly reports have shown low to no excess deaths.
This is completely consistent with national herd immunity, with local self limiting outbreaks possible but impossible to see a widespread & growing epidemic. Note that official data shows there is no public health emergency due to the virus. I’m not going to get into the whole...
...business of misattribution of cause of death due to untrustworthy PCR mass testing again (yesterday’s thread covered that). Please follow Whitty’s advice & be guided by excess deaths. Once you do that, the whole position is seen for what it is: a reality in complete contrast..
...with the narrative of fear. I’ll close by again encouraging those at elevated risk of severe outcomes from the virus to consider getting vaccinated. It isn’t wise to do so if you’re not at elevated risk. I also repeat my demand that mass testing of the population ceases. It...
...is simply not necessary & because of unknown unreliability, I believe it’s main product is false positives, fear & superfluous ‘control measures’ which don’t work, while hurting everyone.
If anyone on SAGE reads this, please look to your conscience & alter course.

More from Yardley Yeadon

Yardley Yeadon
Yardley Yeadon
@MichaelYeadon3
@DesmondSwayne Sir Desmond is right. SAGE makes mathematical predictions based on flawed models.
I chose to stick my neck out almost 4mo ago here:
https://t.co/b0rT5Lq9HI
I experienced much anxiety doing this, aware that, if I was badly wrong here, I would be destroyed as a contributor.

That said, I thought the immunology so clear that I made three, specific & testable predictions which should apply if I was right.
Please examine them, on the right, under the pie chart:


In particular, I predicted that the epidemic would not reignite in London. Obviously, we have many “cases” but I urge people to disregard these & instead to look at excess deaths, on the principle that a severe (occasionally lethal) respiratory virus would show itself this way.

Here is a chart showing the trend of deaths in London alone over recent years. A prominent peak of deaths is evident as the virus swept through in spring. Also visible the August heatwave. But there are no excess deaths now.
I submit this is a striking example of herd immunity.


I’m still waiting for SAGE or indeed anyone to provide an alternative explanation for the sharp nature of the spring excess deaths peak which doesn’t involve herd immunity or otherwise removing from the pool those vulnerable to lethal outcomes (same result). Given this sharp...
MATHS
Yardley Yeadon
Yardley Yeadon
@MichaelYeadon3
Postcard From Luxembourg: normality is restored prior to vaccination.
I’ve repeatedly said that “test, test, test” is madness, if the tests are unregulated. Why?
‘Because pandemic’, NO PCR mass testing has a declared operational false positive rate.

So we don’t know the oFPR of PCR mass testing in U.K. This is conducted in a small number of private labs, set up at pace in summer, anticipating a ‘2nd wave’ (itself a dubious prediction from the Imperial team who’ve been wrong every time before). You’d assume these “Lighthouse

...Labs are surely regulated, inspected, accredited etc. They’re doing the most impactful medical diagnostic testing which has ever happened in history. But no. None of these are true. ‘Because pandemic’. Now, I don’t know the oFPR either. But we’re paying for it. It is NOT ZERO.

However, the authorities take every positive result as a “confirmed case” (though there’s nothing confirmed). There is no open protocol you can examine & debate. None of the results are available for understanding, thinking & interpretation. Wouldn’t it be important to learn...

...how the distribution of cycle threshold for positives varies through a run of tens of thousands of samples? Or through time? Or across geography? There is no routine evaluation of the characteristics of the test, even though we know the oFPR of complex systems is subject to...
SOCIETY
Advertisement
Yardley Yeadon
Yardley Yeadon
@MichaelYeadon3
@scottorandojin What if the false diagnosis rate was 90%?
Don’t misunderstand me. I’m a thorough believer in the existence of this virus.

To exemplify: the NHS is under severe winter pressure. Many staff are unavailable, largely due to forced isolation from testing. Also, I’m told the adaptations to the conditions make normal work almost impossible. Trying to keep apart patients in different categories must be...

...incredibly stressful. I doubt I could ever have coped. Add to this the real stream of sick people & it’s a complete nightmare. My sympathies won’t be accepted but I offer them anyway. As to “the deaths”, do you mean the reported count of “covid19 deaths”? Everyone is doing...

...their very best. But as to that count: it’s nothing to do with clinical judgement. A covid19 death is a death from any cause within 28d of a positive test. So once a person is labelled by a positive test, if they then die, they’re a covid19 death. Back to my substantive...

...question: how reliable is that labelling? It’s not a clinical diagnosis. We’re not used to this idea. Never before in medical history has someone had a disease (let alone cause of death) been defined by the result of a single year alone. Yet that’s where we are. I think that..
HEALTH
Yardley Yeadon
Yardley Yeadon
@MichaelYeadon3
I urge all followers who have read my criticisms of PCR mass testing in U.K. to carefully read Mr Fordham’s carefully worded letter. Note that the innovation minister in the Lords, Lord Bethel, already admitted that the PCR system doesn’t have the equivalent of an MOT. https://t.co/zXzeDMKCBb


Without this information it’s impossible to interpret any result. If the oFPR is 4%, for example, and if the true prevalence is 0.3% (it’s probably less), then for every 10,000 tests, 400 positives would be false & 30 positives would be genuine. So 93% of positives are false.

As Mr Fordham points out, almost all policies pivot on PCR mass testing. Hancock previously admitted on talkRADIO to Julia Hartley-Brewer in late summer that the FPR was “just under 1%”. That was a flat lie (possibly inadvertent but he’s never corrected the record). The reason...

...we are sure Hancock told a lie is that they have never known the FPR. Those including Hancock who believe that the oFPR can be estimated by inspection of the lowest positivity ever recorded, while logical, is completely wrong. Changes in personnel, throughout, testing...

...architecture & the like can radically alter the oFPR. Since Hancock’s remark in late summer, PCR mass testing has moved into the Lighthouse Labs & this creates a new & urgent need to continually assess oFPR. I’ve good reason to believe it’s now VERY much higher now that the...
SOCIETY
Yardley Yeadon
Yardley Yeadon
@MichaelYeadon3
@ukiswitheu I invite people to run the thought experiment: “what if the ‘cases’ data is inaccurate?”
Ignore ‘cases’, look instead only at excess deaths (per M Levitt’s tweet). Does that look characteristic of an epidemic? It’s completely diff from spring or any winter flu outbreak.
London:


Can anyone explain why there is no ‘2nd wave’ of excess deaths in London, without invoking herd immunity?
It’s not lockdown. See NW England:
This is the largest #SecondaryRipple (which I predicted).


https://t.co/b0rT5Lq9HI
Now check the 3 predictions I made months ago. They’ve all happened. Compare predictions from SAGE’s statements: they’re all wrong.
Even neutrals at this point might ask themselves “if he’s been right on all predictions, maybe he’s correct now?”


I’ve been saying since the Lighthouse Labs got up & running that I’m deeply sceptical about the trustworthiness of their ‘cases’ data. I showed how, at low virus prevalence, the PCR mass testing data was throwing out potentially 90% positives being

https://t.co/t4qQN4rH0u
I got ‘fact checked’ a LOT over that statement. This paper just published, about precisely that time period I speculated about. Turns out that high-80s% of Dr Healy’s positives by PCR were FALSE. This alone is sufficient in my view to throw severe doubt...
FOR LATER READ

More from Science

\U0001f6f8\U0001f48eTooTallRN\U0001f48e\U0001f6f8\u2b50\ufe0f\u2b50\ufe0f\u2b50\ufe0f
🛸💎TooTallRN💎🛸⭐️⭐️⭐️...
@VeteransAlways_
The number 666 relates to the carbon atom, and man. Carbon-12; one of 5 elements in the human DNA is composed of 6 protons, 6 electrons and 6 neutrons, which equates to 666. 
.@realDonaldTrump
.@GenFlynn
.@RudyGiuliani
SCIENCE
Stephen Barlow
Stephen Barlow
@SteB777
1) Science denial is destroying our societies, our civilization. Various vested interests, usually right wing ideologues find various scientific facts and information contrary to their agenda, so through propaganda they are orchestrating the public into denying this science.

2) We are seeing this with regard to the COVID virus, where a range of denial is being promoted, ranging from absolute denial the virus exists, to different levels of denial, such as only some people are vulnerable to the virus, to facilitate business as usual.

3) For a long time, to promote business as usual, vested interests have been promoting the denial of the climate and ecological crisis through propaganda. The aim being to create a large enough body of public denial to prevent action which can change anything.

4) We have seen similar patterns over a long time, such as when tobacco companies promoted denial of the emerging scientific evidence of how harmful and addictive tobacco smoking was. This further denial uses exactly the same methods.

5) Understandably, the public can't be educated about everything and have to rely on experts to inform them of concerns about threats to public safety. Malicious vested interests take advantage of this by using pseudo-experts to misinform the public.
SCIENCE
Advertisement
Marit Kolby Zin\xf6cker
Marit Kolby Zinöcker...
@zinocker
Did we get dietary saturated fats all wrong? The #HADLmodel provides a new understanding and an opportunity to get it right. THREAD👇👇👇
@simondankel @kariannesve

Increased dietary saturated fatty acids lead to increased cholesterol in lipoproteins, but we don’t know why. Enter the #HADLmodel, which explains changes in lipoprotein cholesterol as adaptive homeostatic adjustments that ensure optimal cell membrane fluidity and cell function.

We propose that circulating lipoproteins enable appropriate redistribution of cholesterol molecules between specific cells and tissues, to accomodate changes in dietary fatty acid supply, due to our omnivore nature and variable intake of fatty acids. #HADLmodel

Our #HADLmodel implies that circulating levels of LDL change for protective, not for pathological reasons; an SFA-induced raise in LDL cholesterol in healthy individuals is a normal response, while a lack of this needed response may reflect a deeper pathology in lipid handling.

Circulating lipoproteins may change for pathological reasons, when regulatory mechanisms become disrupted by pathogenic processes related e.g. to inflammatory processes. Diverging lipoprotein responses in healthy versus metabolically unhealthy individuals support this view.
SCIENCE
AbuBakar Siddiq
AbuBakar Siddiq
@BigManBakar
The Review: GW 23 - A thread

Hi everyone, welcome to the latest edition of “The Review” where me and @urboihamza look ahead to the upcoming double GWs and chip strategies in detail:

#FPL #FPLCommunity @OfficialFPL

(Data taken from @FFScout and @FFH_HQ with consent)

Before I start, an update on the Fantasy5: There have been no winners for two consecutive GWs now, so I feel the organizers have been more sympathetic in setting targets yet again this week. This might be your best chance to win £10k! Link below:

At this point, I’d also like to mention that I post about FPL on my Instagram too, so if you have an Instagram account, do follow up here:

I’d like to dedicate this Review of mine to my dear friend Dylan who is an avid FPL player and a regular reader of my pieces. He is battling a brutal illness so my thoughts are with him and his family during these tough times – stay strong lil bro and good luck!

Q: What is the optimum strategy for FPL managers wildcarding sometime soon who do not have their Free Hit in hand?

I’d like to credit to @BenCrellin for his outstanding work helping to shed more clarity on the double GWs coming up. Southampton winning against Wolves...
SCIENCE
Gem,Mummy to 6yr \U0001f3c6\U0001f947 Scientist & outdoor educator
Gem,Mummy to 6yr 🏆🥇 Sc...
@EdadventuresM
Hi, I'm #MarvellousMarthy & this is a mini #GlobalScienceShow to celebrate @WomenScienceDay. I'd like to tell you about my STEM Role Model @MarineMumbles. Stick around for @philjemmett who’s up next. #WomenInSTEM #WomenInScience4SDGs #WomenInScience #girlsinSTEM


Go to https://t.co/fAM7lPSznm to watch my film. I love Rockpooling now as a hobby & I have got Mummy & Daddy into it too. I have learnt loads about marine life over the last year & Elizabeth @marinemumbles has shared her ❤️ of the oceans with me. I LOVE crabs 🦀 🦀🦀!!

This is Gem, Marthy’s Mummy. There have been so many other STEM women who have truly inspired #MarvellousMarthy over the past year: @DrJoScience has ignited a love of experiments, @ScienceAmbass has brought giggles with some fab experiment-alongs, @HanaAyboob for introducing her

to some amazing #SciArt, @BryonyMathew for releasing some fabulous books to help raise aspirations, @Astro_Nicole & @Victrix75 for allowing her to interview them as part of #worldspaceweek & @AmeliaJanePiper for the ongoing support since she won the SciComm presenter competition.

So, as you can tell from the film, Marthy adores Elizabeth & is truly inspired by her. Since engaging with her for the first time about 10 months ago, Marthy has developed a very keen & passionate interest for all things Marine! The @angleseyseazoo can vouch for this!!!!
SCIENCE

You May Also Like

Meet Shah
Meet Shah
@ms89_meet
Strong Monopolies:

IRCTC 100% Market share in Rail Network.

IEX >90% market share in power trading.

Zydus wellness >90% market share in sugar free product.

Eicher motors >85% market share in 250cc bikes category.

MCX >85% market share in commodity trading.

Coal India >80% market share in coal production in India.

ITC >75% market share in cigarettes.

Honda Siel >75% in portable power generators.

Hindustan Zinc >75% market share in primary zinc industry.

Asahi India Glass >70% market share in automotive glass.

NRB Bearings >70% market share in needle roller bearings.

Pidilite >65% market share in adhesives.

CAMS >65% market share in RTA within mutual fund industry.

Time Technoplast >65% market share in polymer based industrial packaging.

Concor >65% market share in domestic container cargo transport.

Exide >60% market share in lead batteries.

Naukri >60% market share in the Indian job market space.

Praj >60% market share in ethanol plant installing.

Indiamart Intermesh >55% market share in the online B2B Classified space.

Borosil Renewables >55% market share in Lab glass.

Vst Tillers >50% market share in
Power tillers.

Delta corp >50% in online poker games.

Vinati Organics >50% market share in IBB.
GENERICLEARNINGS , GENERAL TWEER , INTRESTING TOPIC
\u0936\u094d\u0930\u0940\u092e\u093e\u0932\u0940 \u0939\u093f\u0924\u0947\u0936 \u0905\u0935\u0938\u094d\u0925\u0940
श्रीमाली हितेश अवस्थी...
@HiteshAwasthi89
Varahi Amman, Madurai, Tamilnadu

Vaarahi is one of the Saivite Shakti deities with the group of goddesses known as SAPTAMATAS.
They are: Brahmi, Maheshwari, Kaumari, Vaishnavi, Vaarahi, Mahendri and Chamundi. 1/n


They are the Shakti (female) equivalents of their male counterparts. Vaarahi is the Shakti of Bhairavar who is one of the Amsam of Bhairavar.Created from the boar avatara of Vishnu, Vaarahi is often associated with Goddess Kamala (one of the Mahavidyas). 2/n


She is also called Dandini (Lady Commander of the forces of the Mother-Goddess, symbolizing the might of SriVidya). As Vaarahi ("hog-faced" or "the great consumer") she destroys evil forces that obstructs the devotees' progress, paralyses the enemies 3/n


and led the devotees ultimately to SriVidyas. She is also called Panchami). With Kurukalla, she is accorded the parental status to Sri-Chakra (Lalita Tripura-Sundari). While Kurukalla represents the full moon, Vaarahi represents the new-moon. 4/4

Jai Maa Varahi 🙏


Tag for 📷 credit
ALL
Advertisement
Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie
@patio11
A thing which I unironically and enthusiastically believe which is unpopular among smart people of my acquaintance: financial engineering has in the recent past and present contributed substantially to human welfare. We should hope to see more of it.

Maybe more geeks need to meet someone who says “My job is teleporting value across time and space.”

Financial engineering is sort of a squishy term. I don’t primarily mean payments infrastructure or financial rails, although both of those involve substantial engineering.

I mean more “We took a thing and performed some alchemy, and now have a new thing.”

Except instead of alchemy it is generally quite a bit of math, a huge amount of contract law and due diligence, often an impressive amount of ops work, and a dusting of technology that web devs would recognize as such.
ALL
Suhail
Suhail
@Suhail
1/ The first 18 months of starting a company is often life or death. I must've made 5 different companies that each failed within 9 mo. 😭 Each time the company failed I figured out what I could do better. Eventually startup #6 got to $40K/mo by month 18. Here’s what I learned...

2/ Stay focused! Ignore things that are a waste of time: meetups & conferences, meetings with no clear agenda, fundraising if you're not fundraising, reading lots of tech media articles, etc. Every week should feel like significant progress in the first year.

3/ Your first 5 hires will be the difference between life or death. Choose carefully. Be picky. Many of the things we do at the company still are a result of those early hires' legacy. Have fun as a tight knit team. It will change & evolve as you get bigger so enjoy this moment.

4/ Growth may be flat for the first 9 months. It's gonna be okay. Almost every company has experienced this: Airbnb had to sell cereal in-between, Slack failed as a gaming company first, Tesla sold only 147 cars after 6 years! You probably won't be an overnight success either.

5/ In the beginning, do customer support yourself. You will learn a lot about why your product sucks. I did 5,000+ support tickets when it was the two of us. Delight customers & fix things fast while you learn. It will help you build an amazing intuition about your customers.
STARTUPS
Anu Satheesh \U0001f1ee\U0001f1f3
Anu Satheesh 🇮🇳...
@AnuSatheesh5
Srikanteshwara Temple,
#Nanjangud  #Karnatakatemples 🚩

Srikanteshwara Temple or
Nanjundeshwara Temple is a famous Shiva Temple located in Karnataka at the bank of river  Kapila. Temple is also called Varanasi of South. Nanjunda means one who has consumed poison.


Story is  related to the Samudra Mathanam when Paramashiva had to consume halahala.

Parashurama worshipped Mahadeva here to relieve himself from the curse of Mathru Hatya. While clearing the place to do poojas Parashurama's  axe hit the Shivalingam and it began bleeding, that


mark is still visible even today. Thus
it is also believed that Parashurama did Shiva Prathishta here

Sthala Puranam says that, once there was a demon named Keshi who disturbed the people in the area, after  getting blessing from Brahma Deva  and Mahavishnu. Mahadeva appeared


here and killed demon Keshi and blessed this place as Papa Vinashini. Whoever praying to Srikanteshwara or Nanjundeshwara, after bathing in the  Kabini River will be relieved from all sins.

Nanjundeshwaraya Namah
🙏🕉🙏
ALL