@shivaji_1983 @_gauravchopra Not just copper

Headline is a click bait, but nos are good.
Housing sales surge 113% in top 7 cities even as prices rise; massive 300% spike in Hyderabad

https://t.co/NODfkp3BxA

Why & how does rising Crude Oil hurt India?

A short thread 🧵

India is the 3rd largest consumer of Oil at 5.35 million barrels per day (MBPD) behind US (21.2mbpd) and China (15.1mbpd)

India imports nearly 85% of its total Crude oil consumption every year.

India's own production has been below 700,000 barrels per day for a long time.

India imports oil in the following share as per FY 21 numbers:

Iran 17%,
Saudi Arabia 16%,
UAE 14%,
USA 9%,
Qatar 8%,
Others 38%

India import share for Oil from Russia is under 2%, an insignificant number.

India imports about 290 Million tones of Oil in a year.

Assuming that Oil prices are at $75 (last year),
India's oil import bill is ~ $165bn

India exports refined petroleum products as well. At $75 oil price those exports would amount to $58bn

=Oil trade deficit of $105bn

Oil at:
$100, India's oil trade deficit (imports - exports) would be ~ $140bn

For every $10 rise in Crude Oil from say $100, India's oil trade deficit will rise by ~$15bn

For instance at $120 Oil price it would be ~ $170bn

Why and when the markets stopped caring about the Russia-Ukraine conflict? A short thread🧵

The news coming in from Ukraine remains concerning with huge losses and humanitarian crisis.

But for the last 10 days the markets seems to 'Not Care' and react to the news.

Read why

Markets become very jittery if they can sense a large financial panic because of an external event.

One gauge to measure what the market is pricing-in is the funding stress indicator.

For instance, the FRA-OIS spread in US measures the funding stress in interbank markets.

The FRA-OIS spread, which measures the gap between the U.S three-month forward rate agreement and the overnight index swap rate, is an indicator similar to the TED Spread.

TED spread gained a large analyst following during the global financial crisis in 2008.

The FRA/OIS spread expanded from under 5bps to 38bps since Russia Ukraine crisis began.

The same spread had jumped to 80 from 10 during the COVID crisis scare before US Fed and other central banks stepped in.

Take a look at the graph.

What does this mean?

Equity, bonds and currency markets are most sensitive to problems in interbank markets. Why?

Because interbank markets runs financial markets to a very degree. From margin payment in f&o segment, to short term credit, to credit for economy ....

The real estate market in India expanded at a CAGR of ~10% from $50bn to $120bn between 2008-17.

It's estimated to expand at a CAGR of 17.7% to $1tn by 2030. It will added $820bn in 10 years from $180bn in 2020.

Will throw a number of opportunities along the way.

Why Gold could be 'The' asset to focus on and how to play it?

In 2021, gold hasn't done much. Its down 6% YTD. It was up a clean 20% in 2020.

What could be in store ahead. A thread 🧵 explaining drivers and way ahead.

There are 4 factors that are key to watch

1. Massive financial debasement across the world

2. Negative Real Interest rates

3. Gold's unique diversification edge

4. Incremental demand Vs limited supply

Financial debasement
US Fed's balance sheet has doubled from $4.2 trn to $8.4trn since COVID began. Similarly ECB, BOJ, BOE and EM central banks have embarked on massive monetary stimulus.

This was used to finance Govt deficit. This monetization/debasement is bullish for Gold.

Negative real rates
Gold prices follow moves in interest rates. Real interest rates are the nominal level of interest rates minus the inflation rate. Negative real rates erode the value of money. Gold being a store of value benefits from this...

Real rates are the most negative that they have been. Even junk bond yields have turned negative adjusted for inflation.
Gold moves inline with moves in real rates. With inflation still above normal trend and central banks likely to keep rates low, Gold is likely to benefit.

Made a combo using @mystockedge

Strong stock
Long position on fri
High delivery on fri
High cash volume on fri

I have earlier shared some setups/strategies for Intraday. One of them was ORB (opening range breakout) setup.. but I still get DM about this. So here's a thread about how to find ORB stocks: (1/12)

Stocks that are in consolidation or on the verge of a breakout and has already given a breakout from consolidation - both category stocks should be in your watchlist.

Now the question is.. with so many stocks around, how one must filter and check? (2/12)

I mostly trade in F&O stocks in Intraday - it has 188 stocks after new addition and can be filtered as per sector rotation.
Find the sector or theme with good recent performance and keep its stocks in watchlist. I keep an alert for breakout price when I see a good chart. (3/12)

Another way to filter stocks is to keep an eye on the new additions in the F&O and the stocks that are in news.

Not every stock gives a move of 7-8%. Look for stock that move 7-8% in one go when they give a breakout (Stocks unlike ITC that moves once in a year). (4/12)

There are a few stocks that are tailor made for ORB. And those stocks should be in your watchlist.
IRCTC, Mindtree, Bajaj Twins, IEX, TataElxsi, Naukri, Coforge are some great examples. Rest you can observe and add.
Recent examples 👇(5/12)

#USDINR is headed towards is All time highs this month

High USD oil + high USDINR = big headwinds

Inside Bar (IB) is an effective trading strategy where a range is formed & we trade on a Breakout/Breakdown.

What is IB?

Textbook definition of IB:
When the current bar is trading inside the previous candle's high and low (range)

Here's a live example from the Tata Steel Chart where you can see multiple IB forming on 15 minutes chart.

I've marked 2 IBs in the circle where we can find the mother candle & the inside bar candle.

So how do we trade this?

If the overall trend is bullish, then you should be looking at high on the mother candle. When the mother candle's high is broken, you can place your SL at:
1. Low of the mother candle, or
2. Low of the Inside Bar candle.

Both the eg are in charts:

And Vice Versa for the Bearish bias.

If the overall trend is bearish, then you should be looking at low on the mother candle. When the mother candle's low is broken, you can place your SL at:
1. High of the mother candle, or
2. High of the Inside Bar candle.

I prefer keeping the high or low of the inside bar candle as my SL.

Remember there are 100s of ways to trade this, ultimately your position sizing & risk management will come into play.

Position sizing can be calculated using the SL, and risk can be managed.