BC REAL ESTATE

Sahil Kapoor
@SahilKapoor 4 years, 11 months ago 822 views

The real estate market in India expanded at a CAGR of ~10% from $50bn to $120bn between 2008-17.

It's estimated to expand at a CAGR of 17.7% to $1tn by 2030. It will added $820bn in 10 years from $180bn in 2020.

Will throw a number of opportunities along the way.

More from Sahil Kapoor

Why & how does rising Crude Oil hurt India?

A short thread 🧵

India is the 3rd largest consumer of Oil at 5.35 million barrels per day (MBPD) behind US (21.2mbpd) and China (15.1mbpd)

India imports nearly 85% of its total Crude oil consumption every year.

India's own production has been below 700,000 barrels per day for a long time.

India imports oil in the following share as per FY 21 numbers:

Iran 17%,
Saudi Arabia 16%,
UAE 14%,
USA 9%,
Qatar 8%,
Others 38%

India import share for Oil from Russia is under 2%, an insignificant number.

India imports about 290 Million tones of Oil in a year.

Assuming that Oil prices are at $75 (last year),
India's oil import bill is ~ $165bn

India exports refined petroleum products as well. At $75 oil price those exports would amount to $58bn

=Oil trade deficit of $105bn

Oil at:
$100, India's oil trade deficit (imports - exports) would be ~ $140bn

For every $10 rise in Crude Oil from say $100, India's oil trade deficit will rise by ~$15bn

For instance at $120 Oil price it would be ~ $170bn

Sahil Kapoor
@SahilKapoor

@moneyworks4u_fa @shivaji_1983 @_gauravchopra Not just copper

Sahil Kapoor
@SahilKapoor

Why Gold could be 'The' asset to focus on and how to play it?

In 2021, gold hasn't done much. Its down 6% YTD. It was up a clean 20% in 2020.

What could be in store ahead. A thread 🧵 explaining drivers and way ahead.

There are 4 factors that are key to watch

1. Massive financial debasement across the world

2. Negative Real Interest rates

3. Gold's unique diversification edge

4. Incremental demand Vs limited supply

Financial debasement
US Fed's balance sheet has doubled from $4.2 trn to $8.4trn since COVID began. Similarly ECB, BOJ, BOE and EM central banks have embarked on massive monetary stimulus.

This was used to finance Govt deficit. This monetization/debasement is bullish for Gold.

Negative real rates
Gold prices follow moves in interest rates. Real interest rates are the nominal level of interest rates minus the inflation rate. Negative real rates erode the value of money. Gold being a store of value benefits from this...

Real rates are the most negative that they have been. Even junk bond yields have turned negative adjusted for inflation.
Gold moves inline with moves in real rates. With inflation still above normal trend and central banks likely to keep rates low, Gold is likely to benefit.

Sahil Kapoor
@SahilKapoor

Headline is a click bait, but nos are good.
Housing sales surge 113% in top 7 cities even as prices rise; massive 300% spike in Hyderabad

https://t.co/NODfkp3BxA

Sahil Kapoor
@SahilKapoor

Ethanol blending as a concept has roots in 1826. In 1876 a more evolved use began. Nicolaus Otto, the inventor of the modern 4-cycle IC engine, used ethanol to power an early engine

Modern industry has its root in crony capitalism of 1960-70s in US

It's still a sunrise sector🙄

More from Real estate

Aditya Mehta
@aditya942000

#CenturyPly

👉Capex done in d last 8years = ~1000crs

👉Capex to be executed in next 2 years = ~1000crs

Speaks volumes about demand from the real estate sector.🚀

Michelle Tandler
@michelletandler

This is what downtown San Francisco looks like right now.

(🧵1/x)

https://t.co/XKAsS1MoSJ

https://t.co/aUNRl81svV

https://t.co/dgXp9OXiA5

https://t.co/1wPtT8V0td

Aditya Mehta
@aditya942000

🌆Real estate is not like your ordinary grocery item.
👉Where inc. in prices leads to lower demand.

👉In Real estate, with inc. in prices there is a panic among fence sitters to buy before the price rises,leading to more uptake in volumes.

&

⬆️Start of a new up-cycle.

Saket Reddy
@saketreddy

Domestic MDF market size is pegged at 2500Cr currently & is expected to grow at 15% CAGR over the next 3 years (organised players to grow even faster).

The industry further has potential to capture incremental opportunity of 4500-5000Cr low-end plywood market. https://t.co/Cre3xVUNqu

GREENPANEL would grow earnings at 15-20% CAGR over the next 3-5 years with ROCE & Margin expansion once they commision the de-bottlenecked capacity in FY22 and the brownfield AP CAPEX in FY23/FY24.

Huge runway for growth, industry structure (both MDF & RE) turned for the good! https://t.co/jFTZCwhNMS
— Saket Reddy (@saketreddy) October 14, 2021

GREENPANEL had 1,400 dealers (retail business) as of FY21 and added 250 dealers in 6MFY22. Target to
increase this to 2,200 by FY23.

Vishal Bhargava
@VishalBhargava5

If there is one sentence that symbolizes the rotten nature of Noida real estate. (Yes, less than 1 cr)

"In 8 cases–the net worth of the sub-lessee was less than even Rs 1 crore but were permitted sub-lease of plots aggregating worth over Rs 500

Joe Rogan's podcast is now is listened to 1.5+ billion times per year at around $50-100M/year revenue.

Independent and 100% owned by Joe, no networks, no middle men and a 100M+ people audience.

👏

https://t.co/RywAiBxA3s

Joe is the #1 / #2 podcast (depends per week) of all podcasts

120 million plays per month source https://t.co/k7L1LfDdcM

https://t.co/aGcYnVDpMu

$Murray \U0001f1fa\U0001f1f8$

Murray 🇺🇸...
@Rothbard1776

NEW: @SidneyPowell1 radio interview w/ @toddeherman "The new report has a truckload of evidence of foreign interference in the election in it. That's what people seem to want to deny, even though the FBI & CISA ... issued an advisory and alert back on Oct. 30th & updated on

2/ Nov. 3rd, so for them to deny that now is absolutely absurd. Plus, we have an affidavit from an expert cyber-warfare [individual] who even shows the diagram of all the attacks coming in. We know that the VPN ... the Dominion people left those open and unencrypted on the night

3/ of the election, so that anybody could get in. We know that the packets of information went to Serbia [note: over 100 Dominion employees scrubbed there LinkedIn profiles of any affiliation with the company after the election, many of whom were in Serbia], Liechtenstein,

4/ Spain, Venezuela, Hunan, China & Hong Kong. There was traffic all over into our election system that is supposed to be self-contained, not accessible by the internet at all. We have witnesses who document that it was connected to the internet. We have a study out of

5/ [the Dominion voting system in Antrim] MI, they know that it was connected to the internet. They erased their audit files & their adjudication files, where they dumped over 68% of their ballots into a bin that they call "adjudication" [that would've been thousands + thousands

Patrick Chovanec
@prchovanec

I'm going to do two history threads on Ethiopia, one on its ancient history, one on its modern story (1800 to today). 🇪🇹

I'll begin with the ancient history ... and it goes way back. Because modern humans - and before that, the ancestors of humans - almost certainly originated in Ethiopia. 🇪🇹 (sub-thread):

The famous \u201cLucy\u201d, an early ancestor of modern humans (Australopithecus) that lived 3.2 million years ago, and was discovered in 1974 in Ethiopia, displayed in the national museum in Addis Ababa \U0001f1ea\U0001f1f9 pic.twitter.com/N3oWqk1SW2
— Patrick Chovanec (@prchovanec) November 9, 2018

The first likely historical reference to Ethiopia is ancient Egyptian records of trade expeditions to the "Land of Punt" in search of gold, ebony, ivory, incense, and wild animals, starting in c 2500 BC 🇪🇹

Ethiopians themselves believe that the Queen of Sheba, who visited Israel's King Solomon in the Bible (c 950 BC), came from Ethiopia (not Yemen, as others believe). Here she is meeting Solomon in a stain-glassed window in Addis Ababa's Holy Trinity Church. 🇪🇹