BC REAL ESTATE

Sahil Kapoor
@SahilKapoor 5 years ago 856 views

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The real estate market in India expanded at a CAGR of ~10% from $50bn to $120bn between 2008-17.

It's estimated to expand at a CAGR of 17.7% to $1tn by 2030. It will added $820bn in 10 years from $180bn in 2020.

Will throw a number of opportunities along the way.

More from Sahil Kapoor

Sahil Kapoor
@SahilKapoor

@moneyworks4u_fa @shivaji_1983 @_gauravchopra Not just copper

Sahil Kapoor
@SahilKapoor

Why and when the markets stopped caring about the Russia-Ukraine conflict? A short thread🧵

The news coming in from Ukraine remains concerning with huge losses and humanitarian crisis.

But for the last 10 days the markets seems to 'Not Care' and react to the news.

Read why

Markets become very jittery if they can sense a large financial panic because of an external event.

One gauge to measure what the market is pricing-in is the funding stress indicator.

For instance, the FRA-OIS spread in US measures the funding stress in interbank markets.

The FRA-OIS spread, which measures the gap between the U.S three-month forward rate agreement and the overnight index swap rate, is an indicator similar to the TED Spread.

TED spread gained a large analyst following during the global financial crisis in 2008.

The FRA/OIS spread expanded from under 5bps to 38bps since Russia Ukraine crisis began.

The same spread had jumped to 80 from 10 during the COVID crisis scare before US Fed and other central banks stepped in.

Take a look at the graph.

What does this mean?

Equity, bonds and currency markets are most sensitive to problems in interbank markets. Why?

Because interbank markets runs financial markets to a very degree. From margin payment in f&o segment, to short term credit, to credit for economy ....

Sahil Kapoor
@SahilKapoor

Headline is a click bait, but nos are good.
Housing sales surge 113% in top 7 cities even as prices rise; massive 300% spike in Hyderabad

https://t.co/NODfkp3BxA

Sahil Kapoor
@SahilKapoor

Why Gold could be 'The' asset to focus on and how to play it?

In 2021, gold hasn't done much. Its down 6% YTD. It was up a clean 20% in 2020.

What could be in store ahead. A thread 🧵 explaining drivers and way ahead.

There are 4 factors that are key to watch

1. Massive financial debasement across the world

2. Negative Real Interest rates

3. Gold's unique diversification edge

4. Incremental demand Vs limited supply

Financial debasement
US Fed's balance sheet has doubled from $4.2 trn to $8.4trn since COVID began. Similarly ECB, BOJ, BOE and EM central banks have embarked on massive monetary stimulus.

This was used to finance Govt deficit. This monetization/debasement is bullish for Gold.

Negative real rates
Gold prices follow moves in interest rates. Real interest rates are the nominal level of interest rates minus the inflation rate. Negative real rates erode the value of money. Gold being a store of value benefits from this...

Real rates are the most negative that they have been. Even junk bond yields have turned negative adjusted for inflation.
Gold moves inline with moves in real rates. With inflation still above normal trend and central banks likely to keep rates low, Gold is likely to benefit.

Sahil Kapoor
@SahilKapoor

Why & how does rising Crude Oil hurt India?

A short thread 🧵

India is the 3rd largest consumer of Oil at 5.35 million barrels per day (MBPD) behind US (21.2mbpd) and China (15.1mbpd)

India imports nearly 85% of its total Crude oil consumption every year.

India's own production has been below 700,000 barrels per day for a long time.

India imports oil in the following share as per FY 21 numbers:

Iran 17%,
Saudi Arabia 16%,
UAE 14%,
USA 9%,
Qatar 8%,
Others 38%

India import share for Oil from Russia is under 2%, an insignificant number.

India imports about 290 Million tones of Oil in a year.

Assuming that Oil prices are at $75 (last year),
India's oil import bill is ~ $165bn

India exports refined petroleum products as well. At $75 oil price those exports would amount to $58bn

=Oil trade deficit of $105bn

Oil at:
$100, India's oil trade deficit (imports - exports) would be ~ $140bn

For every $10 rise in Crude Oil from say $100, India's oil trade deficit will rise by ~$15bn

For instance at $120 Oil price it would be ~ $170bn

More from Real estate

Saket Reddy
@saketreddy

Domestic MDF market size is pegged at 2500Cr currently & is expected to grow at 15% CAGR over the next 3 years (organised players to grow even faster).

The industry further has potential to capture incremental opportunity of 4500-5000Cr low-end plywood market. https://t.co/Cre3xVUNqu

GREENPANEL would grow earnings at 15-20% CAGR over the next 3-5 years with ROCE & Margin expansion once they commision the de-bottlenecked capacity in FY22 and the brownfield AP CAPEX in FY23/FY24.

Huge runway for growth, industry structure (both MDF & RE) turned for the good! https://t.co/jFTZCwhNMS
— Saket Reddy (@saketreddy) October 14, 2021

GREENPANEL had 1,400 dealers (retail business) as of FY21 and added 250 dealers in 6MFY22. Target to
increase this to 2,200 by FY23.

Charlie Mungerilal
@CMungerilal

@VishalBhargava5 The issue is that builders offering smaller carpet area per room. In some cases, it’s even difficult to fit king size bed.

Aditya Mehta
@aditya942000

@mahek108 @pd_log @nid_rockz @SwarnashishC @AnishA_Moonka @mmvRavindra Agreed !!

Oberoi will always remain a leader n mrkts also values it in the same way.

katya
@kazbek

so i’ve been looking at the alleged “putin palace” alongside a friend who works in real estate here in nyc and really knows their way around floor plans. they prefer to stay anonymous but together we’ve made some interesting discoveries

if you look at the 2nd floor, you will see that there are 11 bedrooms in total on that same floor, 4 corner units are larger suites with living rooms, others are adjacent bedrooms only

you will also see that the alleged "putin suite" is only a bit bigger than the other suites, of which there are four on this floor, and they all have similar features

meanwhile, the alleged "putin bathroom & recreation room" are positioned in a way that they share the balcony with two other, smaller bedrooms. you can also access this balcony through the indoor “winter garden” which is a common area

you can’t see the balcony on the photos they provide and the shots centering the part where putin’s suite is supposed to be are from far away only: is this because they don’t want you to wonder as much?

Sahil Kapoor
@SahilKapoor

Headline is a click bait, but nos are good.
Housing sales surge 113% in top 7 cities even as prices rise; massive 300% spike in Hyderabad

https://t.co/NODfkp3BxA

A lot of bootstrappers think they have a marketing problem:

"I need to get better at marketing."

But, it's more likely that you have a product problem:

"Do customers really want this? Do they care enough about this to switch to a new solution?"

☝️ this is why most of my book, @marketingdevs, is about:

1. Choosing the right market
2. Building something they want

"If your product is remarkable, getting noticed is a lot easier." – @peldi

I was reminded of this concept again this morning while reading @pjrvs' book (Company of One):

"Sales increase when you honestly evaluate what someone needs and then teach them the value of what you're selling."

To succeed, your product has to offer an outcome that is highly desirable to a large group of customers.

The number of sales your product receives is a multiple of these two variables:

1. How big is the target market?
2. How desirable is the outcome you're offering them?

Aditya Todmal
@AdityaTodmal

A THREAD ON @SarangSood

Decoded his way of analysis/logics for everyone to easily understand.

Have covered:
1. Analysis of volatility, how to foresee/signs.
2. Workbook
3. When to sell options
4. Diff category of days
5. How movement of option prices tell us what will happen

1. Keeps following volatility super closely.

Makes 7-8 different strategies to give him a sense of what's going on.

Whichever gives highest profit he trades in.

I am quite different from your style. I follow the market's volatility very closely. I have mock positions in 7-8 different strategies which allows me to stay connected. Whichever gives best profit is usually the one i trade in.
— Sarang Sood (@SarangSood) August 13, 2019

2. Theta falls when market moves.
Falls where market is headed towards not on our original position.

Anilji most of the time these days Theta only falls when market moves. So the Theta actually falls where market has moved to, not where our position was in the first place. By shifting we can come close to capturing the Theta fall but not always.
— Sarang Sood (@SarangSood) June 24, 2019

3. If you're an options seller then sell only when volatility is dropping, there is a high probability of you making the right trade and getting profit as a result

He believes in a market operator, if market mover sells volatility Sarang Sir joins him.

This week has been great so far. The main aim is to be in the right side of the volatility, rest the market will reward.
— Sarang Sood (@SarangSood) July 3, 2019

4. Theta decay vs Fall in vega

Sell when Vega is falling rather than for theta decay. You won't be trapped and higher probability of making profit.

There is a difference between theta decay & fall in vega. Decay is certain but there is no guaranteed profit as delta moves can increase cost. Fall in vega on the other hand is backed by a powerful force that sells options and gives handsome returns. Our job is to identify them.
— Sarang Sood (@SarangSood) February 12, 2020