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More from Sahil Kapoor

Why Gold could be 'The' asset to focus on and how to play it?

In 2021, gold hasn't done much. Its down 6% YTD. It was up a clean 20% in 2020.

What could be in store ahead. A thread 🧵 explaining drivers and way ahead.

There are 4 factors that are key to watch

1. Massive financial debasement across the world

2. Negative Real Interest rates

3. Gold's unique diversification edge

4. Incremental demand Vs limited supply

Financial debasement
US Fed's balance sheet has doubled from $4.2 trn to $8.4trn since COVID began. Similarly ECB, BOJ, BOE and EM central banks have embarked on massive monetary stimulus.

This was used to finance Govt deficit. This monetization/debasement is bullish for Gold.

Negative real rates
Gold prices follow moves in interest rates. Real interest rates are the nominal level of interest rates minus the inflation rate. Negative real rates erode the value of money. Gold being a store of value benefits from this...

Real rates are the most negative that they have been. Even junk bond yields have turned negative adjusted for inflation.
Gold moves inline with moves in real rates. With inflation still above normal trend and central banks likely to keep rates low, Gold is likely to benefit.

Sahil Kapoor
@SahilKapoor

@moneyworks4u_fa @shivaji_1983 @_gauravchopra Not just copper

Sahil Kapoor
@SahilKapoor

The real estate market in India expanded at a CAGR of ~10% from $50bn to $120bn between 2008-17.

It's estimated to expand at a CAGR of 17.7% to $1tn by 2030. It will added $820bn in 10 years from $180bn in 2020.

Will throw a number of opportunities along the way.

Sahil Kapoor
@SahilKapoor

Why & how does rising Crude Oil hurt India?

A short thread 🧵

India is the 3rd largest consumer of Oil at 5.35 million barrels per day (MBPD) behind US (21.2mbpd) and China (15.1mbpd)

India imports nearly 85% of its total Crude oil consumption every year.

India's own production has been below 700,000 barrels per day for a long time.

India imports oil in the following share as per FY 21 numbers:

Iran 17%,
Saudi Arabia 16%,
UAE 14%,
USA 9%,
Qatar 8%,
Others 38%

India import share for Oil from Russia is under 2%, an insignificant number.

India imports about 290 Million tones of Oil in a year.

Assuming that Oil prices are at $75 (last year),
India's oil import bill is ~ $165bn

India exports refined petroleum products as well. At $75 oil price those exports would amount to $58bn

=Oil trade deficit of $105bn

Oil at:
$100, India's oil trade deficit (imports - exports) would be ~ $140bn

For every $10 rise in Crude Oil from say $100, India's oil trade deficit will rise by ~$15bn

For instance at $120 Oil price it would be ~ $170bn

Sahil Kapoor
@SahilKapoor

Ethanol blending as a concept has roots in 1826. In 1876 a more evolved use began. Nicolaus Otto, the inventor of the modern 4-cycle IC engine, used ethanol to power an early engine

Modern industry has its root in crony capitalism of 1960-70s in US

It's still a sunrise sector🙄

More from Real estate

Sahil Kapoor
@SahilKapoor

Aditya Mehta
@aditya942000

#CenturyPly

👉Capex done in d last 8years = ~1000crs

👉Capex to be executed in next 2 years = ~1000crs

Speaks volumes about demand from the real estate sector.🚀

Charlie Mungerilal
@CMungerilal

@VishalBhargava5 The issue is that builders offering smaller carpet area per room. In some cases, it’s even difficult to fit king size bed.

katya
@kazbek

so i’ve been looking at the alleged “putin palace” alongside a friend who works in real estate here in nyc and really knows their way around floor plans. they prefer to stay anonymous but together we’ve made some interesting discoveries

if you look at the 2nd floor, you will see that there are 11 bedrooms in total on that same floor, 4 corner units are larger suites with living rooms, others are adjacent bedrooms only

you will also see that the alleged "putin suite" is only a bit bigger than the other suites, of which there are four on this floor, and they all have similar features

meanwhile, the alleged "putin bathroom & recreation room" are positioned in a way that they share the balcony with two other, smaller bedrooms. you can also access this balcony through the indoor “winter garden” which is a common area

you can’t see the balcony on the photos they provide and the shots centering the part where putin’s suite is supposed to be are from far away only: is this because they don’t want you to wonder as much?

Saket Reddy
@saketreddy

Domestic MDF market size is pegged at 2500Cr currently & is expected to grow at 15% CAGR over the next 3 years (organised players to grow even faster).

The industry further has potential to capture incremental opportunity of 4500-5000Cr low-end plywood market. https://t.co/Cre3xVUNqu

GREENPANEL would grow earnings at 15-20% CAGR over the next 3-5 years with ROCE & Margin expansion once they commision the de-bottlenecked capacity in FY22 and the brownfield AP CAPEX in FY23/FY24.

Huge runway for growth, industry structure (both MDF & RE) turned for the good! https://t.co/jFTZCwhNMS
— Saket Reddy (@saketreddy) October 14, 2021

GREENPANEL had 1,400 dealers (retail business) as of FY21 and added 250 dealers in 6MFY22. Target to
increase this to 2,200 by FY23.

🌿𝑻𝒉𝒆 𝒔𝒕𝒐𝒓𝒚 𝒐𝒇 𝒂 𝑺𝒕𝒂𝒓 : 𝑫𝒉𝒓𝒖𝒗𝒂 & 𝑽𝒊𝒔𝒉𝒏𝒖

Once upon a time there was a Raja named Uttānapāda born of Svayambhuva Manu,1st man on earth.He had 2 beautiful wives - Suniti & Suruchi & two sons were born of them Dhruva & Uttama respectively.
#talesofkrishna https://t.co/E85MTPkF9W

Prabhu says i reside in the heart of my bhakt.

Guess the event. pic.twitter.com/yFUmbfe5KL
— Right Singh (@rightwingchora) December 21, 2020

Now Suniti was the daughter of a tribal chief while Suruchi was the daughter of a rich king. Hence Suruchi was always favored the most by Raja while Suniti was ignored. But while Suniti was gentle & kind hearted by nature Suruchi was venomous inside.
#KrishnaLeela

The story is of a time when ideally the eldest son of the king becomes the heir to the throne. Hence the sinhasan of the Raja belonged to Dhruva.This is why Suruchi who was the 2nd wife nourished poison in her heart for Dhruva as she knew her son will never get the throne.

One day when Dhruva was just 5 years old he went on to sit on his father's lap. Suruchi, the jealous queen, got enraged and shoved him away from Raja as she never wanted Raja to shower Dhruva with his fatherly affection.

Dhruva protested questioning his step mother "why can't i sit on my own father's lap?" A furious Suruchi berated him saying "only God can allow him that privilege. Go ask him"