The reality is you can find “evidence” for almost any narrative. Limit the sample size, cherry-pick studies, etc. Systematic reviews, meta analyses, and randomized controlled trials are all susceptible to selective interpretation/narrative fallacy.
@nntaleb 1/10
Science is assumed to be “evidence-based” but that term alone doesn’t mean much. What constitutes good evidence? How is evidence being used? Is it supporting or refuting a hypothesis? Was the hypothesis and experimental design predetermined or found ex post facto?
The reality is you can find “evidence” for almost any narrative. Limit the sample size, cherry-pick studies, etc. Systematic reviews, meta analyses, and randomized controlled trials are all susceptible to selective interpretation/narrative fallacy.
At the heart of the problem is the over-reliance on simplistic statistical techniques that do little more than quantify 2 things moving together.
Take Pearson’s correlation, based on covariance. Variation can increase simultaneously across 2 variables for countless reasons, most of which are spurious. Yet this simple notion of “causality” undergirds much of scientific literature.
Information-theoretic (entropy based) approaches on the other hand can assess *general* measures of dependence. Rather than some specialized (linear) view based on concurrent variation, entropy encompasses the amount of information contained in and between variables.
If you were genuinely interested in giving the term “evidence” an authentic and reliable meaning then the methods used to underpin an assertion would be rigorous.
We wouldn’t look to conveniently simplistic methods to denote something as evidential, rather we would look for a measure capable of assessing the expected amount of information held in a random variable; there is nothing more fundamental than information.
Consider Mutual Information (MI), which quantifies the amount of information obtained about one random variable through observing another random variable. This observing of the relationship between variables is what measurement and evidence is all about.
MI determines how different joint entropy is from marginal entropies. If there is a genuine dependence between variables we would expect information gathered from all variables at once (joint) to be less than the sum of information from independent variables (marginals).
If “evidence-based” science was genuinely invested in authentic measurement it would leverage *general* measures of dependence; that demands an approach rooted in information-theory. Without entropy you’re just picking data, choosing a narrative, and calling it “evidence.”
More from Science
1. I find it remarkable that some medics and scientists aren’t raising their voices to make children as safe as possible. The comment about children being less infectious than adults is unsupported by evidence.
2. @c_drosten has talked about this extensively and @dgurdasani1 and @DrZoeHyde have repeatedly pointed out flaws in the studies which have purported to show this. Now for the other assertion: children are very rarely ill with COVID19.
3. Children seem to suffer less with acute illness, but we have no idea of the long-term impact of infection. We do know #LongCovid affects some children. @LongCovidKids now speaks for 1,500 children struggling with a wide range of long-term symptoms.
4. 1,500 children whose parents found a small campaign group. How many more are out there? We don’t know. ONS data suggests there might be many, but the issue hasn’t been studied sufficiently well or long enough for a definitive answer.
5. Some people have talked about #COVID19 being this generation’s Polio. According to US CDC, Polio resulted in inapparent infection in more than 99% of people. Severe disease occurred in a tiny fraction of those infected. Source:
I find it remarkable that a section of society not rejoicing that children very rarely ill with COVID compared to other viruses and much less infectious than adults
— Michael Absoud \U0001f499 (@MAbsoud) February 12, 2021
Instead trying prove the opposite!
Why??
2. @c_drosten has talked about this extensively and @dgurdasani1 and @DrZoeHyde have repeatedly pointed out flaws in the studies which have purported to show this. Now for the other assertion: children are very rarely ill with COVID19.
3. Children seem to suffer less with acute illness, but we have no idea of the long-term impact of infection. We do know #LongCovid affects some children. @LongCovidKids now speaks for 1,500 children struggling with a wide range of long-term symptoms.
4. 1,500 children whose parents found a small campaign group. How many more are out there? We don’t know. ONS data suggests there might be many, but the issue hasn’t been studied sufficiently well or long enough for a definitive answer.
5. Some people have talked about #COVID19 being this generation’s Polio. According to US CDC, Polio resulted in inapparent infection in more than 99% of people. Severe disease occurred in a tiny fraction of those infected. Source:
It's another stunning Malagasy #dartfrog/#poisonfrog for today's #FrogOfTheDay, #42 Mantella cowani Boulenger, 1882! A highly threatened, actively conserved and managed frog from the highlands of central #Madagascar
#MadagascarFrogs
📸D.Edmonds/CalPhotos
This thread will cover only a tiny fraction of the work on Mantella cowanii because, being so charismatic and threatened, it has received quite a bit of attention.
#MadagascarFrogs
We start at the very beginning: the first specimens, two females, were collected by Reverend Deans Cowan in East Betsileo, Madagascar, and sent to London, where George Albert Boulenger described the species in 1882.
#MadagascarFrogs
Boulenger placed the species in his new genus, Mantella, along with ebenaui, betsileo, and madagascariensis. He recognised that the other Malagasy poison frogs were distinct from the Dendrobates of the Americas, although he did keep them in the Dendrobatidae.
#MadagascarFrogs
As more specimens were collected, it became clear that the species was highly variable. In 1978, Jean Guibé wrote with interest about this variability, describing a new subspecies, M. cowani nigricans—today a full species. #MadagascarFrogs
https://t.co/dwaHMbrYbj
#MadagascarFrogs
📸D.Edmonds/CalPhotos
This thread will cover only a tiny fraction of the work on Mantella cowanii because, being so charismatic and threatened, it has received quite a bit of attention.
#MadagascarFrogs
We start at the very beginning: the first specimens, two females, were collected by Reverend Deans Cowan in East Betsileo, Madagascar, and sent to London, where George Albert Boulenger described the species in 1882.
#MadagascarFrogs
Boulenger placed the species in his new genus, Mantella, along with ebenaui, betsileo, and madagascariensis. He recognised that the other Malagasy poison frogs were distinct from the Dendrobates of the Americas, although he did keep them in the Dendrobatidae.
#MadagascarFrogs
As more specimens were collected, it became clear that the species was highly variable. In 1978, Jean Guibé wrote with interest about this variability, describing a new subspecies, M. cowani nigricans—today a full species. #MadagascarFrogs
https://t.co/dwaHMbrYbj
What is going on at SWANSEA UNIVERSITY in Wales?
1.
https://t.co/d5NKtNlxxa
Sounds as if its connected to Bill Gates "LUCIFERASE" Vaccine?
2.
https://t.co/k0w1mjaPg0
"HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON SCHOOL OF LAW"
- AT SWANSEA UNIVERSITY!!!
3.
https://t.co/jifuWq6cGq
Remember all those FIRES, over the Summer!!!
4.
https://t.co/H3lstFyYx8
WUHAN PARTNERSHIP
"Links between Swansea & Wuhan date back to 1855 when Swansea missionary Griffith John founded the Wuhan Union Hospital.
This relationship was strengthened when representatives of the two cities signed an agreement".
5.
https://t.co/5b1JqiEQzi
Swansea University Strengthens Links with China
1.
https://t.co/d5NKtNlxxa
Sounds as if its connected to Bill Gates "LUCIFERASE" Vaccine?
2.
https://t.co/k0w1mjaPg0
"HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON SCHOOL OF LAW"
- AT SWANSEA UNIVERSITY!!!
3.
https://t.co/jifuWq6cGq
Remember all those FIRES, over the Summer!!!
4.
https://t.co/H3lstFyYx8
WUHAN PARTNERSHIP
"Links between Swansea & Wuhan date back to 1855 when Swansea missionary Griffith John founded the Wuhan Union Hospital.
This relationship was strengthened when representatives of the two cities signed an agreement".
5.
https://t.co/5b1JqiEQzi
Swansea University Strengthens Links with China
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The entire discussion around Facebook’s disclosures of what happened in 2016 is very frustrating. No exec stopped any investigations, but there were a lot of heated discussions about what to publish and when.
In the spring and summer of 2016, as reported by the Times, activity we traced to GRU was reported to the FBI. This was the standard model of interaction companies used for nation-state attacks against likely US targeted.
In the Spring of 2017, after a deep dive into the Fake News phenomena, the security team wanted to publish an update that covered what we had learned. At this point, we didn’t have any advertising content or the big IRA cluster, but we did know about the GRU model.
This report when through dozens of edits as different equities were represented. I did not have any meetings with Sheryl on the paper, but I can’t speak to whether she was in the loop with my higher-ups.
In the end, the difficult question of attribution was settled by us pointing to the DNI report instead of saying Russia or GRU directly. In my pre-briefs with members of Congress, I made it clear that we believed this action was GRU.
The story doesn\u2019t say you were told not to... it says you did so without approval and they tried to obfuscate what you found. Is that true?
— Sarah Frier (@sarahfrier) November 15, 2018
In the spring and summer of 2016, as reported by the Times, activity we traced to GRU was reported to the FBI. This was the standard model of interaction companies used for nation-state attacks against likely US targeted.
In the Spring of 2017, after a deep dive into the Fake News phenomena, the security team wanted to publish an update that covered what we had learned. At this point, we didn’t have any advertising content or the big IRA cluster, but we did know about the GRU model.
This report when through dozens of edits as different equities were represented. I did not have any meetings with Sheryl on the paper, but I can’t speak to whether she was in the loop with my higher-ups.
In the end, the difficult question of attribution was settled by us pointing to the DNI report instead of saying Russia or GRU directly. In my pre-briefs with members of Congress, I made it clear that we believed this action was GRU.
