“Time is a flat circle,” Rust Cohle famously opined. I’ve always taken that as another form of the biblical proclamation that there’s nothing new under the sun. I think about that on New Year’s Day, as we unite in contrived joy at the rolling over of our astronomical odometer.
You—as someone raised on a steady diet of motherhood & apple pie & American exceptionalism—would not be capable of internalizing those predictions as real possibilities (nor would I, were I not the narrator in this hypothetical).
Every calamitous event of the last 20 years has happened before, in some form or fashion. Plague. Corruption. Financial collapse. War under false pretenses. There is nothing new under the sun. Time is a flat circle.
More from Science
Recently I learned something about DNA that blew my mind, and in this thread, I'll attempt to blow your mind as well. Behold: Chargaff's 2nd Parity Rule for DNA N-Grams.
If you are into cryptography or reverse engineering, you should love this.
Thread:
DNA consists of four different 'bases', A, C, G and T. These bases have specific meaning within our biology. Specifically, within the 'coding part' of a gene, a triplet of bases encodes for an amino acid
Most DNA is stored redundantly, in two connected strands. Wherever there is an A on one strand, you'll find a T on the other one. And similarly for C and G:
T G T C A G T
A C A G T C A
(note how the other strand is upside down - this matters!)
If you take all the DNA of an organism (both strands), you will find equal numbers of A's and T's, as well as equal numbers of C's and G's. This is true by definition.
This is called Chargaff's 1st parity rule.
https://t.co/jD4cMt0PJ0
Strangely enough, this rule also holds per strand! So even if you take away the redundancy, there are 99% equal numbers of A/T and C/G * on each strand *. And we don't really know why.
This is called Chargaff's 2nd parity rule.
If you are into cryptography or reverse engineering, you should love this.
Thread:
DNA consists of four different 'bases', A, C, G and T. These bases have specific meaning within our biology. Specifically, within the 'coding part' of a gene, a triplet of bases encodes for an amino acid
Most DNA is stored redundantly, in two connected strands. Wherever there is an A on one strand, you'll find a T on the other one. And similarly for C and G:
T G T C A G T
A C A G T C A
(note how the other strand is upside down - this matters!)
If you take all the DNA of an organism (both strands), you will find equal numbers of A's and T's, as well as equal numbers of C's and G's. This is true by definition.
This is called Chargaff's 1st parity rule.
https://t.co/jD4cMt0PJ0
Strangely enough, this rule also holds per strand! So even if you take away the redundancy, there are 99% equal numbers of A/T and C/G * on each strand *. And we don't really know why.
This is called Chargaff's 2nd parity rule.
I took a look at Shell's first ever 1.5C scenario and found that it is... remarkably similar to its “well-below 2C” scenario.
Oil, gas, coal, solar.... all basically unchanged.
The key difference: A new forest the size of Brazil to suck up the extra CO2.
Including "nature-based solutions" in the outlook brings forward the date for net-zero emissions to 2058.
Without them their pathway for CO2 emissions is the same as the previous one.
(It's also towards the higher end of 1.5C emissions pathways.)
The "Brazil-sized" forest idea isn't actually new, it has been kicking around for a couple of years.
It was referenced in the "well-below 2C" scenario although not formally included in it, and Shell's CEO has been framing it as the only viable way of getting to 1.5C.
Fine, but who is going to plant all those trees? Well... Shell says it will plant some of them.
Only yesterday Shell said forests were a key part of its net-zero strategy.
Not everyone is convinced though
https://t.co/RaJm7tOHxb
Given that Shell's 1.5C scenario also sees a big scaling up of bioenergy, the question remains: where are all those trees and bioenergy crops going to go?
Oil, gas, coal, solar.... all basically unchanged.
The key difference: A new forest the size of Brazil to suck up the extra CO2.
Including "nature-based solutions" in the outlook brings forward the date for net-zero emissions to 2058.
Without them their pathway for CO2 emissions is the same as the previous one.
(It's also towards the higher end of 1.5C emissions pathways.)
The "Brazil-sized" forest idea isn't actually new, it has been kicking around for a couple of years.
It was referenced in the "well-below 2C" scenario although not formally included in it, and Shell's CEO has been framing it as the only viable way of getting to 1.5C.
Fine, but who is going to plant all those trees? Well... Shell says it will plant some of them.
Only yesterday Shell said forests were a key part of its net-zero strategy.
Not everyone is convinced though
https://t.co/RaJm7tOHxb
Shell plans to use forests to remove 120 Mt/yr of CO2 by 2030.
— Greg Muttitt (@FuelOnTheFire) February 12, 2021
Appropriate land for forestation is finite, and risks competition with food production and human rights of current land owners/users, esp Indigenous
Given that Shell's 1.5C scenario also sees a big scaling up of bioenergy, the question remains: where are all those trees and bioenergy crops going to go?