BC POLITICS
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1) The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the New Congress Starting Today and the Election for Speaker.

 2) Starting the new Congress is inherently messy in a pandemic. The House of Representatives implemented “remote voting” in the spring.
3) That’s where the House permitted members who were at high risk, quarantining, tested positive or caring for someone who is ill could “phone in” their vote. The Hse will vote on Monday on a new “rules package” to begin the new Congress which will include a remote voting option
4) But in the House, you can’t carry over rules from the 116th Congress to the 117thCongress.

That’s why everyone has to show up at noon today.

This poses an interesting, ethical question:
5) Is it appropriate for members who have tested positive, have been in quarantine or been exposed, be present today?

Here’s what to expect in the House today.
6) First, the House must take care of old business. The House meets, for the last time at 10 am et and adjourns the 116th Congress. The new, 117th Congress starts at noon et, per the Constitution.
7) Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-MO), an ordained United Methodist pastor, will lead the opening prayer to begin the new session.

Nothing has constituted the House at that point. There is no Speaker. Clerk of the House Cheryl Johnson presides.
8) The first order of business is a quorum call to get everyone there – pandemic style.

Under normal circumstances, all 435 House members-elect would crowd into the chamber to vote electronically and record their presence.
9) But during coronavirus, the House will summon members to the chambers in seven groups of about 72 persons. The first tranche starts with Rep. Alma Adams (D-NC) and runs through Rep. Michael Cloud (R-TX).
10) The seventh and final group stretches from Rep. Joe Wilson (R-SC) through Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-NY).

Members are instructed to report to the chamber, record their presence and depart. We expect it will take until a little after 2 pm et to get the quorum there.
11) Watch to see exactly how many members show up for the quorum. This will be crucial because it will dictate the size of the House to begin and how many votes House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) needs to return to the Speaker’s suite.
12) Watch to see exactly how many members show up for the quorum. This will be crucial because it will dictate the size of the House to begin and how many votes House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) needs to return to the Speaker’s suite.
13) The House will entertain nominations for Speaker around 2:30 pm et. House Democratic Caucus Chairman Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) will nominate Pelosi. House Republican Conference Chairwoman Liz Cheney (R-WY) will nominate House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA).
14) The House will then begin a manual roll call with members filing into the chamber, again, in groups, and verbally announcing their vote. This will take until 5:30 pm et or later.

We expect the election of the Speaker sometime between 5:30 and 6 pm et.
15) Presumably, Pelosi wins and will be sworn-in by the Dean of the House (the longest-serving member), Rep. Don Young (R-AK). Pelosi in turn swears-in Young and begins swearing in members in groups of 72 members.
16) The House will observe a moment of silence to note the death of the late Rep.-elect Luke Letlow (R-LA).

The House should start at 432 members and three vacancies: 222 Democrats and 210 Republicans.
17) The vacancies are from New York’s 22nd District, Louisiana’s 5th District and Florida’s 27th District – but the latter will be filled soon. There is still no race call in the contest between current Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D-NY) and former Rep. Claudia Tenney (R-NY).
18) Letlow died from complications related to coronavirus. Rep.-elect Maria Elvira Salazar (R-FL) indicates she will not be present to take the oath office. So that’s how we get to at least three vacancies to begin the new Congress. Possibly more.
19) Salazar could be sworn-in as soon as her health allows. And, the House could approve a resolution later this week allowing Salazar to be sworn-in outside of the Capitol. That’s happened before.
20) Pelosi indicated she will seat Rep.-elect Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IA) after her six-vote victory over Democrat Rita Hart. But Hart has asked the House Administration to probe the outcome in that contest.

This is where it could get interesting.
21) You take the field today with the players you have available. That’s why, in the age of a pandemic, it’s possible - possible - that if Democrats don’t have the right numbers, Republicans could - could - actually have the majority.
22) We always say it’s about the math. It’s about the math. It’s about the math. Well, the math really matters today. Whichever side has the most members present today is in the majority.

Period.
23) The only thing which really matters as to which side has more votes is what comes next: election of the Speaker.

Nothing can happen in the House until it elects a Speaker.

Nothing.
24) And anything can happen during a pandemic. Even Pelosi has said that her foe in the Speaker’s race is COVID.

The successful Speaker candidate secures an outright majority of the entire House. Not the most votes.
25) So, if the House starts at 432 members and everyone is there, Pelosi needs 217 members vote for her. So if Democrats are at 222 and everyone shows up, the Speaker can only lose five votes. Pelosi lost 15 votes in the Speaker’s contest in January, 2019.
26) Rep. Jim Cooper (D-TN) voted present in 2019. But Cooper now says he will vote for Pelosi. Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) voted “present” in 2019. Slotkin says she can’t support Pelosi.
27) Reps. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) and Jared Golden (D-ME) voted for Rep. Cheri Bustos (D-IL) two years ago.

That’s why some wonder if it could possible for the House to elect McCarthy or someone else as Speaker.

That scenario is unlikely. But it will come down to the math.
28) What if no candidate secures 217 votes? The House keeps voting until it picks a Speaker. A vote for Speaker hasn’t gone to a second ballot since 1923. House Speaker Frederick Gillett (R-MA) finally prevailed on the fourth ballot.
29) The House burned two months and 133 ballots in 1856 before finally deciding Nathaniel Banks of Massachusetts was fit to be Speaker.

We just know it will take a long time to wrap all of this up. But we are advised that Sunday could be a very long day.

More from Chad Pergram

Chad Pergram
Chad Pergram
@ChadPergram
1) Urgent: the $2,000 stimulus check bill & veto override effort on the defense bill

The House of Representatives meets today in a rare session between Christmas and New Year’s. Two things on the docket today.

2) A bill to authorize $2,000 direct payment checks, in accordance with the President’s push last week and an override attempt of the annual defense bill.

We don’t expect any action in the House until the late afternoon and no votes before 5 pm et.

3) First up, the House debates the bill to provide $2,000 direct payment checks. The House will treat this bill as a “suspension” measure. That means they can rush it to the floor. But the trade off is a 2/3 vote for passage.

4) Note that many Republicans opposed such a plan for direct payments. Fox is told by a member of the GOP leadership that the House will likely get the 2/3 vote necessary for passage.

5) Watch to see how many Republicans, who were against additional direct payments, will now support the President on this issue.

Also in the queue is a vote to override the President’s veto of the annual defense bill. That will entail a debate and then a vote.
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Chad Pergram
Chad Pergram
@ChadPergram
1) A LOT of balls in the air today on Capitol Hill, as is per usual here in December.

The House is expected to vote on a short-term spending bill today to avoid a government shutdown this weekend. Remember, this was supposed to be the easy part of the puzzle.

2) There are dozens of unresolved issues. So the new deadline for government funding will be 11:59:59 pm on December 18.

It’s possible the Senate could take up the stopgap funding bill today. But unclear. That may have to wait until tomorrow.

3) The Senate could also vote today to align with the House and pass the final version of the defense bill. But that could wait until tomorrow or even next week.

A veto override fight is brewing on this with President Trump.

4) The House scored WELL above the two-thirds necessary to override Mr. Trump’s threatened veto. In fact, the vote total last night went well above what the House had to approve the initial version of the legislation in the summer.

5) Based on the Senate’s vote total on the original version (86 yeas), senators should have the necessary votes to sync with the House and override the President later this month.

Congress has never overriden one of President Trump’s eight vetoes.
POLITICS
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Chad Pergram
Chad Pergram
@ChadPergram
1) The Hitchhiker’s Guide to Starting an Impeachment Trial

2) It is unclear when and how the Senate may begin President Trump’s second impeachment trial. The problem with “starting” an impeachment trial is that once you start, under the Senate impeachment rules, it can potentially supersede all other Senate action.

3) That’s the case - UNLESS - the Senate works out some sort of an agreement on handling an impeachment trial. Otherwise, once you start an impeachment trial, without a side agreement, the Senate meets six days a week at 1 pm et, Sundays excluded, until the trial is finished.

4) The key is when the House sends over the article of impeachment. That triggers a lot of things.

First things first. The Senate must send a parliamentary message to the House that it’s ready to “receive” the article.

5) This is kind of like a football referee waving his hand at a kickoff returner stationed in the end zone to make sure he’s ready to proceed with the kickoff. Once the Senate does that, the House can send the articles.

But…
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Chad Pergram
Chad Pergram
@ChadPergram
1) The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Senate Trial today
 
What is expected to be the final day of President Trump’s second impeachment trial will begin at 10 am et today. We anticipate a final vote on the guilt or innocence of the former President as early as midday.
TRUMP
Chad Pergram
Chad Pergram
@ChadPergram
1) Get used to the following term: “budget reconciliation.”

This is the special parliamentary process President Biden and Congressional Democrats plan to use to advance the next coronavirus relief package. It will likely take a few weeks just to move such a COVID-19 measure.

2) But an understanding of the process may shed light on the policy – and the political realities of Capitol Hill.

President Biden and Democrats in Congress have long memories about how Republicans responded to big legislative initiatives in 2009.

3) The country reeled after the financial crisis. But many Republicans made a pact to reject a stimulus package to help boost the economy. Later that year and in early 2010, Republicans also voted nearly in lockstep against Obamacare.

4) Right or wrong, Democrats felt they waited for Republicans to help out. But were met with blockades and political opposition at every turn. Democrats are wary that they can count on GOP support this year. They still feel the sting of 12 years ago.

5) And that’s why Democrats may go it mostly alone on their next COVID-19 relief measure.

That’s where budget reconciliation kicks in.

Republicans are already complaining that Democrats aren’t working with them on the next COVID bill.
ECONOMY

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Edwin Hayward
Edwin Hayward
@uk_domain_names
Ok, it's high time to look at the REAL effects of Brexit. As the Tories implode & Labour sits on its hands, companies are executing contingency plans, shifting jobs & assets, slashing investments, or redomiciling (accounting exercise). Happening NOW, not in a fantasy future. 1/95

Barden Corporation is closing down its Plymouth factory after 51 years, putting 400 jobs at risk, as its parent company Schaeffler shifts production to various sites outside the UK due to Brexit.

8 health providers have warned of medicine shortages in the event of a no-deal Brexit: "we do not believe that the current medicine supply plans will suffice, and we will have widespread shortages if we do not respond urgently."

Pfizer - $100 million on Brexit prep: "Pfizer’s preparations are well advanced to make the changes necessary to meet EU legal requirements after the U.K. is no longer a member state, especially in the regulatory, manufacturing and supply chain areas."

The Government has spent £4.2 billion pounds on Brexit preparations (£2.2 billion in previous Budgets, plus an additional £2 billion in the most recent Budget.)
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Alexander
Alexander
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1/ Imagine that as soon as the referendum result the EU announced that it was looking forward to the end of free movement of UK citizens in the EU


2/ Imagine if the EU said finally all those retired Brits in the EU27 could go home

3/ Imagine if the EU said finally all those Brits in the EU could stop driving down wages, taking jobs and stop sending benefits back to the UK

4/ Imagine if the EU said it was looking to use UK citizens as “bargaining chips” to get a better trade deal

5/ Imagine if the EU told UK citizens in the EU27 that they could no longer rely on established legal rights and they would have to apply for a new status which they have to pay for for less rights
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katya adler
katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
Again, at such a key moment in UK and at such high political levels, evidence of deep misunderstanding of EU: The PM is under pressure in some quarters to delay #Brexit vote to allow her first to “improve” deal in Brussels BUT EU is determined not to budge at this stage

2) All EU leaders watching tomorrow’s vote. Of course they want to avoid a no deal #Brexit BUT they feel the deal - so painfully negotiated between EU and UK - is too fresh to re-open. Clarifications, yes but fundamental renegotiations, no.

3) The EU’s international reputation as a tough deal-maker is at stake here too. If Brussels now suddenly “gives in” to U.K. on EU red lines (eg backstop) then that would weaken the EU’s reputation in future trade negotiations with other non EU countries

4) Also on backstop the EU is unlikely to cave in to favour a relationship with a leaving member state (UK) against the explicit wishes and ignoring the deep concerns of a continuing member: Ireland.

5) Both the EU and the PM signed up to a guarantee to protect the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. If either the U.K. or EU can leave the backstop unilaterally then this clearly is no longer a guarantee.
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Matt Taibbi
Matt Taibbi
@mtaibbi
Thread. 1) Thirty or forty years ago, supporting free speech was understood to be a non-negotiable core value of the liberal left.

2) Pop culture endlessly celebrated liberalism’s uncompromising support of speech rights — from The People Vs. Larry Flynt to Field of Dreams to The American President.

3) Think of “President Shepard’s” speech in “The American President” about how “America isn’t easy” and citizenship requires we “acknowledge a man whose words make your blood boil.”

4) That started to change long before Trump. As “The American President” came out, Bill Clinton was pushing the first Internet censorship laws.

When the PATRIOT Act passed, every Democrat but one in both houses voted yes. Russ Feingold, Independent Bernie Sanders, and three Republicans voted no.
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WAKE UP AUSTRALIA WAKE UP
WAKE UP AUSTRALIA WAKE...
@WakeAustralia
(1-6)
Some serious Political theatre went down today.

How many people worked out what was portrayed right in-front of them?

Watch how this plays out.
https://t.co/KkrXreeNof


(2-6) MP Catherine Cummings booed off stage.
Good luck getting any Dr’s on board.


(3-6) And the show continues to launch the Reignite Democracy Political Party.


(4-6) What a setup. Love the glove prop just ready to go.


(5-6) And here it is. We are coming for all the marginal seats.

How much is Jim Penman still involved behind the scenes?
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See this thing that @lymanstoneky wrote:

And see this thing that I wrote:

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2) 2 Weeks ago, my dog was effected by it as well. He is hearing things that aren’t technically audible. I can tell by his body language and sounds. One week ago I began feeling a pressure in my head and ears. It wasn’t painful at all, but it was intense for a bit.

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