BC POLITICS

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Larry Schweikart
@LarrySchweikart 5 years, 9 months ago 907 views

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Let me suggest something, in love.

Earlier, you said and I agreed with you, that the Trump side should be looking to poke holes in their case. It would only make it stronger. I wanted you to be a part of the hearings here.

Now, I think you need to do the same.

I'd like to see you approach the state's case--that there's no fraud--with the ferver of a full Tumper.

Earlier you admitted that, yes, if 35,000 votes were programmed as a baseline in Pima, it would be possible if 35,000 paper ballots were inserted there.

That wouldn't . . .

be hard to do. In fact, while I agree with you that it would be almost impossible to do it statewide, it would NOT be impossible to do it in several select locations. When a few thousand votes decide an election, this would do it.

So I challenge you to start again.

Start with the eyes of someone who sees fraud (cuz is sure as HELL looks that way). For example, pollsters are wrong. But Richard Baris is rarely wrong. When he misses, it's by a half a point.

His AZ poll was "off" by over 4. Maybe he just erred. Maybe not.

Give it a try.

Show everyone that indeed you ARE the AZ Data Guru and mount the most substantive case you can for fraud before you set to knocking it down.

I think both sides should be represented before the full AZ legislature, under oath, questioned by both sides (NOT ACCUSED but questioned)

Start by thinking of Alan Weinstein, who was absolutely sure Alger Hiss was innocent . . . til he thoroughly investigated and found the opposite.

Or think of Ron Radosh who thought the Rosenbergs were innocent . . .til he concluded convincingly they were not.

Be THAT guy.

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Larry Schweikart
@LarrySchweikart

1) https://t.co/ejQmeU5YIu

First the Hill/Cook, now this. Folks, they are aware they are losing or have already lost the House. The last big vote suppression push is on.

Yesterday, two NC polls basically put all the "at risk" NC seats out of reach.
Before that, TX and OH's vulnerable seats were pretty much off the board (Sessions is ahead but close).

NY now down to two vulnerable seats with the R leading in one. Both are red.

3) UNLIKE THE LIBS, I will tell you . . .

I.
Can.
Be.
Wrong.

But I'm not seeing a DemoKKKrat takeover of the House. At most I have them with 19 flips---but that is really stretching it and that's them running the table.

4) Meanwhile, we had news of a D-R potential flip in AZ1, where Wendy Rogers has gotten out to a surprising lead.

This goes along with the expected two flips from MN. There are at least two others out there, possibly three.

5) Meanwhile, in the world of real voting, in blue Montgomery Co., OH we have the following in absentee balloting: R=11,041, D=7,087, I/U=12,609

Well, you say, all those indies may vote D.

They didn't in 2016. Based on 2016 votes and voting history of EVERY SINGLE HOUSE . . .

Larry Schweikart
@LarrySchweikart

1) Voting in Cuyahoga County (OH's Manhattan for its blueishness) has dramatically increased.

2) Bad news right?

3) Er, no. "And increases are coming from Republicans and unaffiliated voters."

4) Now, we have to watch unaffiliated voters, but my OH guys--"The Accountant" and "Ohio Wan" developed a statistical model in 2016 that appears to be holding for assessing how Us will vote.

5) It's not bad for us at all.

6) So, here are the raw numbers:

Eighteen days out in 2018:
D 68,760 (44 %)
R 39,080 (25%)
Us 48,206 (30 %)
Total 156,251

2014:
D 75,675 (55 %)
Rs 33,964 (25 %)
•Us 26,854 (19 5)
Total 137,053

"Republicans appear energized" due to the Kavanaugh

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Larry Schweikart
@LarrySchweikart

1) Gonna offer a hypothesis. This is NOT a prediction quite yet.

2) In the last couple of days the DNCC went back into IA1 (Blum) and VA10 (Comstock) and began placing ads again.

3) These were races they thought they had won in mid-summer. Barbara Comstock was the . . .

3) contd . . epitome of the endangered R who would lose her seat in the fall. She of course still might.

4) But this race was supposed to be over weeks ago. The fact that the DNCC is now having to fight for this territory tells me something.

5) I think the DemoKKKrat strategists can actually read. Moreover, I think they can read absentee/early voting #s as well as we can.

6) Which means they see they are getting buried. Even in NV, the only state of six where they have a tiny lead, I'm told that . . .

6) contd . . when the rural counties come in, Ds will be a shocking 41,000 short of their 2016 numbers (when Trump only lost by 27,000).

7) What does it mean they are now having to retake the "cities" they supposedly held? It probably means they never held them at all.

8) Their "leads" were always based almost entirely on polls.

9) But I think it means something more. I think the DNC is . . .

SCARED. TO. DEATH.

Larry Schweikart
@LarrySchweikart

1) Last night I said we have 12 data points (AZ statewide, FL statewide +4 specific counties, IA + 2 counties, OH 2 counties, and NC).

Every single one was showing GOP turnout higher than midterm levels of 2014 and all but one (a county) showing turnout above 2016.

2) If I recall all the data correctly, D turnout/performance was below that of 2016 and, in the case of IA, below that of 2014.

3) Now we have two more data points to add: news out of WY that a net of 10k switched from D/other to R in last six months & turnout #s in Knox Co. TN

3) Out of 12 MEASURABLE data points--not polls which are opinions of what people "might" do in the future---every single one is favors the Rs.

4) I'll admit, I got a tad depressed for a minute yesterday when the latest Siena/NYT polls came out . . . before I was reminded . . .

4) . . they were making 60,000 calls to reach a mere 300 respondents.

SIXTY THOUSAND!

5) Who do you think is NOT responding?

Conservatives, Republicans, people with families & jobs.

6) That means these NYT polls are utterly worthless with a margin of error of 20% or more

7) So once again, we have real world data about what has ALREADY HAPPENED, stuff we can count . . .

and unreliable polls of the opinions of people who won't even vote about what they might do if it doesn't rain or if they don't have a hangnail that day.

Larry Schweikart
@LarrySchweikart

1) FL absentees, early voting:

*Dems as expected ("souls to the polls Sunday") had a good day and FINALLY take the early walk-in vote lead by 6,100 votes.

Rs total: 1,151,593
Ds total: 1,092,547

Rs +59,046 combined lead. This is very good for this point in the campaign.

2) At this point in 2016, Rs only led by 40,000. I could be mistaken but I think yesterday was the last day polls were open on Sunday, so the final "souls to the polls" Sunday.

3) As of yesterday, four red counties were yet to report. That would likely boost the lead back to 70k

4) I don't think the FL Rs in their wildest dreams expected to lead this late in the campaign.

5) Likewise in NV:
Clark (with its union "encouragement" for members turned out big yesterday and added net 6,000 voters.

However---big however---neither Washoe nor the rurals . . .

(5) contd. . . were open yesterday. My guesstimate is that would slice that number in half.

While this helped, the NV Ds are still looking at a significant--to potentially massive--shortfall from their 2016 numbers coming out of early voting.

6) Gotta make sure you compare days to days. Calendars and voting days differ.

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Joel Kotarski
@joelkotarski

Let's track some of Donald Trump's solutions to problems: Give Hurricane victims paper towels (to sop it up), rakes to wildfire fighters (make America rake again), teaching kids to look at solar eclipses (they're too smart for that), and asking for global warming in cold winters.

This is the perfect asymptotic approach to the extremes of both Republican and Democratic rhetoric (which are both inevitably devoid of any sound logic) - you eventually get presidents like this. This is a warning call to dissolve the Republican and Democratic parties.

It seems to me our nation is now tossed between two insane extremes, bickering and arguing with each other, embodied in the Republican and Democratic parties. When you get extremist politicians who adhere fully to broken logic and rhetoric, our future is laid waste.

New parties must emerge soon. For fun, I propose a new party : "Uniters" and call the other parties "Dividers" (Republicans and Democrats). We can say that the Uniters believe in uniting people rather than dividing people.

That implies that one 'dominant' world view cannot prevail (including the illusion that we are in fact a set of states United right now) - we have to work and labor hard together to fulfill the promise the founders sought to build this country upon.

Palmer Report
@PalmerReport

That new attack piece about Seth Abramson is full of easily debunked false claims. Whenever the mainstream media gets annoyed at an indie pundit like Seth, it just publishes a bunch of bullshit about him, and most people mistakenly believe it. They've done the same thing to me.

The sad part is that when the author of that piece tried to smear a bunch of mainstream media journalists for daring to compare notes with him, they all responded by lying and said they've never compared notes with him. Even though Abramson has proof that they have.

This is the EXACT same strategy that certain mainstream media outlets used against me in 2017-2018. First they lied about me. Then they attacked my mainstream media associates for associating with a "fake news" pundit like me. Then some in the media felt compelled to disown me.

Sadly, it didn't matter that I had overwhelming proof that everything said about me in those attack pieces was false. When you defend yourself, no matter how factually, the average observer merely decides you're being "defensive" and therefore guilty as charged.

Ask yourself why the mainstream media is choosing now to dishonestly attack Abramson. The media's ratings are way down now that Trump is gone. Abramson presumably still has his entire niche audience intact. So the media gets jealous and takes it out on him.

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Alexander
@37paday

1/ Imagine that as soon as the referendum result the EU announced that it was looking forward to the end of free movement of UK citizens in the EU

Imagine, for a moment, the reaction of the UK Government, Brexiters, and the RW UK press if Juncker, Tusk, Macron or Merkel went on TV to say that Brexit was worth it to stop Freedom of Movement for UK citizens, and to stop Brits being able to come to the EU and jump the queue.
— Steve Bullock (@GuitarMoog) November 20, 2018

2/ Imagine if the EU said finally all those retired Brits in the EU27 could go home

3/ Imagine if the EU said finally all those Brits in the EU could stop driving down wages, taking jobs and stop sending benefits back to the UK

4/ Imagine if the EU said it was looking to use UK citizens as “bargaining chips” to get a better trade deal

5/ Imagine if the EU told UK citizens in the EU27 that they could no longer rely on established legal rights and they would have to apply for a new status which they have to pay for for less rights

Mohammed Zubair
@zoo_bear

After the video went viral, Shringi Yadav was arrested last night for mercilessly beating Asif for drinking water inside Dasna Devi Mandir. A look at his Facebook profile shows he is inspired by hate speeches of Dasna Mandir Mahant Yati Narsinghanand Saraswati. Thread 👇

Here is a video of him with Yati Narsinghanand Saraswati.

Here are a few facebook posts of Yati Narsinghanand shared by Shringi Yadav. But who's Mahant Yati Narsinghanand?

A few years ago, Bajrang Dal organised a ‘show of strength’ in Dasna Devi Temple in Ghaziabad, where a dozen people were seen firing guns in the air. The caretaker of Dasna Devi Temple, is Mahant Narsimhanand Saraswati. Do watch full video

In a speech, Yati Narsinghanand advocates for the killing of Muslim 'jihadis'. Via -

Demola Olarewaju
@DemolaRewaju

The death of Alhaji Lateef Kayode Jakande brings to my mind the triumph of excellence in political leadership as well as rebellion against the political order.

A lot has been said about LKJ since he died yesterday and I hope only to contribute my perspective to enrich all said.

My emphasis with history has always been to draw out lessons relevant to the present, to show how trends repeat themselves and to show certain hypocritical contradictions within the present system.

Only few others qualify as well as LKJ to do all the three - I hope I do justice.

One area pundits have largely missed out in the Jakande story is the very beginning - both of his life and of his politics.

LKJ's parents were from Omu-Aran in present day Kwara State but he contributed more to Lagos than so many others - we will return to this subsequently.

LKJ was not originally a political ally of Awolowo - a number of elders were with Awo right from the very beginning but LKJ contributed politically to Awolowo at a crucial time of religious threat to the dominance of the Action Group (Awo's party) in the pre-Independence mid 50s.

A group had been formed in 1957 and named the National Muslim League headed by Alhaji R.A. Smith who had been very critical of Awolowo's AG as a Christian party and moved to align with the Northern People's Congress of Sir Ahmadu Bello.

The political threat to Awo was very real.

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Loren Brichter
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So it turns out that Google Chrome was making everything on my computer slow *even when it wasn’t running*, because it installs something called Keystone which is basically malware.

I made a website because this shouldn’t

Wired first reported on how bad Keystone was 11 years ago when they put it into Google Earth (they seem to put it in all their popular

The fact that Keystone hides itself in Activity Monitor is bizarre. (The only sign of it was excessive CPU usage of WindowServer which is a system process).

I don’t know if Google was doing something nefarious with Keystone, or a third party figured out how to (which Wired warned about). But either way, I’m not inclined to give Google-the-organization the benefit of the doubt (despite the many good people who work on Chrome)...

...since it's been a decade+ and this still hasn't been "fixed".

There is no reason for auto-update software to need to do what Chrome/Keystone was doing. It also has a long history of crashing Macs.