1) FL absentees, early voting:

*Dems as expected ("souls to the polls Sunday") had a good day and FINALLY take the early walk-in vote lead by 6,100 votes.

Rs total: 1,151,593
Ds total: 1,092,547

Rs +59,046 combined lead. This is very good for this point in the campaign.

2) At this point in 2016, Rs only led by 40,000. I could be mistaken but I think yesterday was the last day polls were open on Sunday, so the final "souls to the polls" Sunday.

3) As of yesterday, four red counties were yet to report. That would likely boost the lead back to 70k

4) I don't think the FL Rs in their wildest dreams expected to lead this late in the campaign.

5) Likewise in NV:
Clark (with its union "encouragement" for members turned out big yesterday and added net 6,000 voters.

However---big however---neither Washoe nor the rurals . . .

(5) contd. . . were open yesterday. My guesstimate is that would slice that number in half.

While this helped, the NV Ds are still looking at a significant--to potentially massive--shortfall from their 2016 numbers coming out of early voting.

6) Gotta make sure you compare days to days. Calendars and voting days differ.

1) Voting in Cuyahoga County (OH's Manhattan for its blueishness) has dramatically increased.

2) Bad news right?

3) Er, no. "And increases are coming from Republicans and unaffiliated voters."

4) Now, we have to watch unaffiliated voters, but my OH guys--"The Accountant" and "Ohio Wan" developed a statistical model in 2016 that appears to be holding for assessing how Us will vote.

5) It's not bad for us at all.

6) So, here are the raw numbers:

Eighteen days out in 2018:
D 68,760 (44 %)
R 39,080 (25%)
Us 48,206 (30 %)
Total 156,251

2014:
D 75,675 (55 %)
Rs 33,964 (25 %)
•Us 26,854 (19 5)
Total 137,053

"Republicans appear energized" due to the Kavanaugh

1) 538 walks it back:
Right now, in fact, the polls are not showing a Democratic turnout advantage. Instead, based on a comparison of likely-voter and registered-voter polls, they’re projecting roughly equal turnout between the parties,

2) with Republicans’ demographic advantages (older, whiter voters typically vote at higher rates at the midterms) counteracting Democrats’ seemingly higher enthusiasm.”

3) Give little Natey a week and he'll see what we see: An R turnout advantage.

1) Gonna offer a hypothesis. This is NOT a prediction quite yet.

2) In the last couple of days the DNCC went back into IA1 (Blum) and VA10 (Comstock) and began placing ads again.

3) These were races they thought they had won in mid-summer. Barbara Comstock was the . . .

3) contd . . epitome of the endangered R who would lose her seat in the fall. She of course still might.

4) But this race was supposed to be over weeks ago. The fact that the DNCC is now having to fight for this territory tells me something.

5) I think the DemoKKKrat strategists can actually read. Moreover, I think they can read absentee/early voting #s as well as we can.

6) Which means they see they are getting buried. Even in NV, the only state of six where they have a tiny lead, I'm told that . . .

6) contd . . when the rural counties come in, Ds will be a shocking 41,000 short of their 2016 numbers (when Trump only lost by 27,000).

7) What does it mean they are now having to retake the "cities" they supposedly held? It probably means they never held them at all.

8) Their "leads" were always based almost entirely on polls.

9) But I think it means something more. I think the DNC is . . .

SCARED. TO. DEATH.

1) Where we are: This is much, much bigger than a fraudulent election (it was) or rampant gubment tyrannical China Virus abuse (it is).

2) What we are facing has been building for a good 30 years.

3) I date it back to the GOP failure to defeat Clinton in the gubment shutdown.

4) If you went to public school, that would be the 1995 budget battle.

5) The brand new GOP Congress, with plenty of public support, failed to rein in a Clinton bloated budget.

6) It wasn't the numbers. Compared to today's deficits & debts, this was pocket change. Rather, this was the first time since the Cold War, which was a legit excuse for constant deficit spending, that Congress failed to do its MAIN constitutional duty--oversee spending.

7) No, this isn't a thread about deficits or debt. At present, I don't think those pose the biggest challenge to us, or even probably one of the top five.

8) Rather, this is about a deadly disease that hit DC & the patient refused to take any medicine for it.

9) The disease was the failure to address the major problems of the day, whether it was deficits, Islamic terrorism, the banking crisis, or trade.

10) Vote fraud & this frankenstein of an election is only the latest SYMPTOM of this much larger disease.

1) Let's say for a moment the "secret sting" theory of Sessions/RR/Wray is true.

What has the delay cost us?

2) It has had a MAJOR impact on the lawlessness, mobbing, and rioting of the fascist left.

3) Sessions has done absolutely nothing about the issue of lawlessness.

2) It is crucial that he begin to indict these rioters on federal civil rights violations; shut down antifa as a terrorist organization; and begin prosecuting cities for failing to enforce civil rights laws.

3) His diddling while all this violence goes on is dangerous, and without some sort of legal action against these people, they will only get more violent til people die.

4) Sessions should have been on this since 2017.

1) Last night I said we have 12 data points (AZ statewide, FL statewide +4 specific counties, IA + 2 counties, OH 2 counties, and NC).

Every single one was showing GOP turnout higher than midterm levels of 2014 and all but one (a county) showing turnout above 2016.

2) If I recall all the data correctly, D turnout/performance was below that of 2016 and, in the case of IA, below that of 2014.

3) Now we have two more data points to add: news out of WY that a net of 10k switched from D/other to R in last six months & turnout #s in Knox Co. TN

3) Out of 12 MEASURABLE data points--not polls which are opinions of what people "might" do in the future---every single one is favors the Rs.

4) I'll admit, I got a tad depressed for a minute yesterday when the latest Siena/NYT polls came out . . . before I was reminded . . .

4) . . they were making 60,000 calls to reach a mere 300 respondents.

SIXTY THOUSAND!

5) Who do you think is NOT responding?

Conservatives, Republicans, people with families & jobs.

6) That means these NYT polls are utterly worthless with a margin of error of 20% or more

7) So once again, we have real world data about what has ALREADY HAPPENED, stuff we can count . . .

and unreliable polls of the opinions of people who won't even vote about what they might do if it doesn't rain or if they don't have a hangnail that day.

1) https://t.co/ejQmeU5YIu

First the Hill/Cook, now this. Folks, they are aware they are losing or have already lost the House. The last big vote suppression push is on.

Yesterday, two NC polls basically put all the "at risk" NC seats out of reach.
Before that, TX and OH's vulnerable seats were pretty much off the board (Sessions is ahead but close).

NY now down to two vulnerable seats with the R leading in one. Both are red.

3) UNLIKE THE LIBS, I will tell you . . .

I.
Can.
Be.
Wrong.

But I'm not seeing a DemoKKKrat takeover of the House. At most I have them with 19 flips---but that is really stretching it and that's them running the table.

4) Meanwhile, we had news of a D-R potential flip in AZ1, where Wendy Rogers has gotten out to a surprising lead.

This goes along with the expected two flips from MN. There are at least two others out there, possibly three.

5) Meanwhile, in the world of real voting, in blue Montgomery Co., OH we have the following in absentee balloting: R=11,041, D=7,087, I/U=12,609

Well, you say, all those indies may vote D.

They didn't in 2016. Based on 2016 votes and voting history of EVERY SINGLE HOUSE . . .

1) Raise your hand if you remember how the RINOs and neverTrumpers ridiculed us in 2015 when we supported Trump saying, "he fights!"

Remember how much abuse we took for that?

Guess what.

We now have Justice Kavanaugh largely because both Trump and K fought.

2) Trump had every opportunity to bail on Judge K. I'm sure he asked the Judge, "Do you want to keep going through this? Cuz I'll stand by you if you do."

3) Either of the Bushes, McTurd, Minion,ANY other leading R would have bailed on Judge K the first time Balless Edsel talked

3) Do you RINOs, you neverTrumpers get it yet?

It is ONLY because Trump "fights" that ANYTHING gets done--trade treaties, tax cuts, immigration control, denuking Korea.

You can't have Falstaff and have him thin. You can't have victories & play nice with Commies or DemoKKKrats

1) A little story about "exit polls."

2) The year was 2004. Kerry was supposedly leading W.

3) I was active in a key precinct in Dayton, OH, a true bellwether for ALL of OH.

4) Rs knew if their voters turned out (due to R registration edge) W would win.

5) I was assigned to do "poll flushing." This is when you go to the precinct at 10:00 am and 4:00 pm and check off all the Republicans who had voted.

Then callers will get on the phone to those who haven't yet voted & try to get them out.

6) The first poll flushing was normal and expected #s.

7) I went home and hear Rush going on and on about the exit polling showing a Kerry win.

8) Some of the conservative websites were melting down. "It's over!"

9) Drudge was going crazy with "exit polls" showing a BIG Kerry win, especially in OH which he had to have to win.

10) A little puzzled, I did my 4:00 flushing. Fully 90% of all Republicans had ALREADY VOTED . . . with three hours to go!

11) Remember, if our voters turned out, nothing Lurch could do. We had the #s.

12) I got back home, went on the boards and told people to cool down, that W would win OH and thereby the election. (He was up in FL, unlike 2000).

13) Sure enough, the exit polls were ALL wrong.

1) All of us are disgusted & fed up with the Republican Party (except a few perpetual grifters in DC).

2) There are calls for a new "Patriot" or "MAGA" Party. I get it. Good intentions. But there are structural reasons why a new party will fail & why we have to take over the GOP

3) When I say "structural" some people gloss over that as if it's unimportant.

It's fundamental. You don't build a house on a bad foundation. If you set up a commerce site, you have a structure as to how you take payments.

You may wish you could go outside that structure . . .

3) contd . . . but if you want your money, you have to either work in the structure or completely obliterate the site. You can't have two competing sites for your money.

4) Likewise if you want to get in your house, you may have 20 keys, but the car key usually won't let you in

5) The structural basis of parties is unchangeable. It was set in the 1820s by Martin Van Buren as a way to protect slavery with the DemoKKKrat Party. But it's also embedded in the Constitution with the "winner take all/single member district" system of representation.

6) This has resulted in a 200-year-old system that is set in place. First, Van Buren, to get people to support a party that would protect slavery, had to reward them with something big.

Jobs.

He created the "spoils system" of rewarding loyalists with party & gubment jobs.

@Garrett_Archer Let me suggest something, in love.

Earlier, you said and I agreed with you, that the Trump side should be looking to poke holes in their case. It would only make it stronger. I wanted you to be a part of the hearings here.

Now, I think you need to do the same.

I'd like to see you approach the state's case--that there's no fraud--with the ferver of a full Tumper.

Earlier you admitted that, yes, if 35,000 votes were programmed as a baseline in Pima, it would be possible if 35,000 paper ballots were inserted there.

That wouldn't . . .

be hard to do. In fact, while I agree with you that it would be almost impossible to do it statewide, it would NOT be impossible to do it in several select locations. When a few thousand votes decide an election, this would do it.

So I challenge you to start again.

Start with the eyes of someone who sees fraud (cuz is sure as HELL looks that way). For example, pollsters are wrong. But Richard Baris is rarely wrong. When he misses, it's by a half a point.

His AZ poll was "off" by over 4. Maybe he just erred. Maybe not.

Give it a try.

Show everyone that indeed you ARE the AZ Data Guru and mount the most substantive case you can for fraud before you set to knocking it down.

I think both sides should be represented before the full AZ legislature, under oath, questioned by both sides (NOT ACCUSED but questioned)

1) You have to be a little vain to be on Twit & think your opinion matters to others. That's ok.

2) Personally, I'm honored & flattered that even 10 of you would follow me, let alone the number who do.

3) So, with that in mind, it's been said that there is the "Evil Party & the Stupid Party."

4) Increasingly, I think that's wrong.

5) There is definitely the Evil Party, the DemoKKKrats. What I think we overlook is that they know their evil & just don't care.

6) But I don't think you get where Yertle, Tom Collins, Minion & some of the others in the GOP are by being stupid.

7) I think they are vain to the radical extreme.

8) They are the Vain Party, who really believe that 74m people voted for "them" in November; who really . . .

8) contd . . . believe that "they know what's best" & their pucksnorter consultants are intelligent & skilled.

They really believe we do NOT matter because they are so much smarter. We just "don't get it." We don't see "how the game is played."

9) Here is the important part: this vanity comes from believing they are morally superior to everyone. That they can "lose gracefully" because people will appreciate how moral & upstanding they are & credit them.