Technical Analysis and 3 Strategies to deploy for Aggressive, Moderate, and Conservative Traders.

🧵Weekly Bank Nifty Analysis for 18th August Expiry:

I gathered the best Youtube videos to learn Expiry trading for free.

If you want to master expiry trading, open this thread: 🧵

Collaborated with @niki_poojary

Here's what you'll find in this thread:

1. ATM strikes to zero
2. Big Gaps on Expiry Day
3. How to trade expiry when Nifty is behaving differently
4. Using Data points to trade expiry
5. Play for a flat move
6. How to profit post 3 pm exploiting the close price?

Let's go ↓

1. How to develop a framework to trade in ATM strikes on expiry day? Subhasish Pani on @vivbajaj Sir's channel.

One of call or put at ATM is going to go to zero.

Whichever is moving rapidly has a higher probability of going ATM/ITM. Sell the slower

2. How to trade a big gap up on expiry day?

If market bias is bullish and a gap-up happens, it comes for selling.

Can buy puts at the breakout of an inside candle as the market has a good probability of at least heading toward the previous day's

3. How to trade in Bank Nifty if it has already moved 160 points from its high to low by 11:30? @ThetaGainers

Sell near otms with double stop loss.

Avoid if stuck in a very small range.

Get out of both by 1

A THREAD on . . . .

How @ITRADE191 selects strikes to trade in and how he follows risk management.

Short thread explained via pictures with the help of @niki_poojary.

1. At the start of the week

i.e. on Friday and Monday, DJ Sir prefers to sell OTM options of 50 rs premium in Nifty.

- ATM options won't decay a lot at the beginning
- With this premium reward is good
- Since these strikes are 4-5 strikes away they are relatively safer

2. On Tue/Wed/Fri

He prefers to trade in ATM or near OTM options.

- ATM options have the highest theta decay
- Since there are only 2-3 days to expiry options sellers by default have a higher probability of winning
- Huge reward if market stays flat

3. Directional/Trending days

- Capture huge profit via ATM option selling
- Futures only where he has good conviction
- Even if doesn't trend much decay will be huge
- Only on days Tuesday to Thursday

4. Which series to trade options in?

- INTRADAY trades option selling is ONLY in weekly expiry
- Option buying for hedging is done MAJORLY in next week/monthly expiry
- This way we have time to adjust
- Theta decay slower than weekly

For weekend learning.

1. Reverse buying (Iron Fly Adjustments) https://t.co/1HCmF6ej9e

2. Straddle setup and adjustments
https://t.co/MFvRjemrHw

3. In depth option chain analysis
https://t.co/W9iiCiBJaw

4. Expiry calendar setup

@RajeshK03075893 Hello! This thread is older than a week. To save it, please reply to the last tweet in the thread with the "save" keyword. Thanks!

A THREAD

Topic: HOW TO TRADE IN RISING PREMIUMS SCENARIO

Option sellers specially Straddle sellers feel that rising premiums give them excellent opportunity to make easy money. So what they are seeing is the theta aspect of options & ignoring the delta/gamma/vega forces.

1/

With rising premiums come high delta moves. There is a reason why premiums are all increasing up in the first place. High uncertainty & fear is what's controlling the markets during such times. So a volatile 200 point move in nifty is always on the cards.

2/

Adjusting during such delta moves involves high slippages. Such costs go in our system & are irrecoverable. So if the ATM straddle is around 400 & after 200 point downmove, the next straddle is at 450 & the loss is not just 50points but compounded much more.

3/

Also there are chances that there is no decay throughout the day. So a straddle seller has to take that heavy risk of carrying it forward & chances of gap openings are high during such times. If converted into Ironfly, then the cost of the wings is too expensive.

4/

Thus cutting down the initial credit significantly.

There will also be very few instances when premiums don't fall till expiry day. So with each delta move the cost of holding a straddle gets accumulated & pressure keeps mounting for the stubborn option sellers.

5/

How to sell option?
Here let me explain through simple math.
Say BN at 30000
30000 straddle trading at combine premium 800 ( based on current volatility)
Put at 400
Call at 400
You don’t know direction. Sold both.

If move will not come than both will decrease gradually.

At day end it will come down to 720-740 if move will not come. Difference is your profit.

Now case 2:
Move started.
At one points combine premium will start increasing.
Say 810.
Exit immediately. No need to do adjustment.
Let market settle.

Sell again straddle once market settle.
Now repeat same thing.

Straddle selling webinar over.
Good luck.

One can keep SL 550 for both strike to escape from sudden movement.