Technical Analysis and 3 Strategies to deploy for Aggressive, Moderate, and Conservative Traders.

🧵Weekly Bank Nifty Analysis for 18th August Expiry:

Want to become better at Positional Trading?

Read this thread...

12 Rules for Professional Positional Traders:

THREAD: 🧵

Collaborated with @niki_poojary

Rule 1:

"Trade with a stop loss of 2% on your capital for the week."

If you're losing more than 2%, chances are your reading of the market is wrong. The best would be to call it quits for that week.

(1/N)

Rule 2:

" Don't trade in the first 10 mins of any day"

Every day, there is far too much noise in the first few minutes. Positional traders should avoid some time in order to avoid being butchered right away.

(2/N)

Rule 3:

" Wait for candle closings in your timeframe"

Beware of wicks. They are buyer/seller traps. Rather wait for a good candle to close above your support/resistance to open/close a trade.

(3/N)

Rule 4:

" Don't lose more than 10% of your capital in a big gap"

The day I experienced the greatest Mtm loss to my capital was February 24. The figure was -47 lakhs. It was around 10% of my capital. Losing much more would set me back several months.

(4/N)

With a return of more than 170% & an average return of 4% on expiry days.

@Ronak_Unadkat converted 2 Cr to 5.5 Cr this year.

We met him in Mumbai & watched him do expiry trading live.

14 things to learn from him for trading FinNifty (for free):

Collaborated with @niki_poojary

(1) Small Account

First of all, let me tell you, he is trading Finnifty in only his small account.

His main expertise is Bank Nifty so he is keeping his main account only for that.

After 1 year of successful Finnifty trading, he will start with his bigger account as well.

(2) What returns to target in Finnifty?

He only trades this index for three days, i.e Friday, Monday and Tuesday.

His goal is to make 1% from here and another 1% through Bank Nifty.

This gives him a 2% week if he plays this well which is his main strength.

(3) Level-Based Trading:

He is a level-based trader, and won't book losses until his level comes.

If the level does not come, he will eat all the premiums & profit.

If the level breaks, whatever loss it shows him, he will book.

(4) How does he find his levels?

He will monitor the highest high and the lowest low of the three days i.e Fri, Mon & Tue.

Those levels he is mostly interested in shorting aggressively.

If no premiums there he will come closer.

Again sharing bank nifty intraday weekly straddle. How to play by selling straddle.
Mostly will work on Monday to Wednesday. Sometimes on Friday.
Why to pay your money to learn this if u can get it here.
U need only practice.
Let’s go.

Say bank nifty future is at 32000.
Sell both 32000 call and put.
Considering current volatile market lest say premium on Monday morning is 350 on both sides.
Sold with 700 points combine premium.
If bank nifty will trade in narrow range say +\- 100 hold it.
If moving 200 points

then exit previous sold straddle. Sell new one. Let’s say BN moved +200
Now sell 32200. If bank nifty will move here within range then u will get profit through theta decay. Follow same procedure for next 150-200 pts move.

This is only for single straddle sell position.

Now in second case sell three straddle. 31900/32000/32100
In case of 100 points move no need to change.
If 200 + then future is 32200.
Exit 31900 and sell 31200 straddle.
If moving another 100 then exit 32000 and sell 32300. Continue same with 100 points move.
If no move then

it will consolidate between 32000-32200 or 32100 to 32300 and u will get theta decay.

This is for normal move. Sudden big move may come anytime. So keep SL in system.
If u r selling at 350-350 then keep SL in system 475 for both legs.
Practice it. No need to attend webinar.

How to sell option?
Here let me explain through simple math.
Say BN at 30000
30000 straddle trading at combine premium 800 ( based on current volatility)
Put at 400
Call at 400
You don’t know direction. Sold both.

If move will not come than both will decrease gradually.

At day end it will come down to 720-740 if move will not come. Difference is your profit.

Now case 2:
Move started.
At one points combine premium will start increasing.
Say 810.
Exit immediately. No need to do adjustment.
Let market settle.

Sell again straddle once market settle.
Now repeat same thing.

Straddle selling webinar over.
Good luck.

One can keep SL 550 for both strike to escape from sudden movement.

For weekend learning.

1. Reverse buying (Iron Fly Adjustments) https://t.co/1HCmF6ej9e

2. Straddle setup and adjustments
https://t.co/MFvRjemrHw

3. In depth option chain analysis
https://t.co/W9iiCiBJaw

4. Expiry calendar setup

A THREAD

Topic: HOW TO TRADE IN RISING PREMIUMS SCENARIO

Option sellers specially Straddle sellers feel that rising premiums give them excellent opportunity to make easy money. So what they are seeing is the theta aspect of options & ignoring the delta/gamma/vega forces.

1/

With rising premiums come high delta moves. There is a reason why premiums are all increasing up in the first place. High uncertainty & fear is what's controlling the markets during such times. So a volatile 200 point move in nifty is always on the cards.

2/

Adjusting during such delta moves involves high slippages. Such costs go in our system & are irrecoverable. So if the ATM straddle is around 400 & after 200 point downmove, the next straddle is at 450 & the loss is not just 50points but compounded much more.

3/

Also there are chances that there is no decay throughout the day. So a straddle seller has to take that heavy risk of carrying it forward & chances of gap openings are high during such times. If converted into Ironfly, then the cost of the wings is too expensive.

4/

Thus cutting down the initial credit significantly.

There will also be very few instances when premiums don't fall till expiry day. So with each delta move the cost of holding a straddle gets accumulated & pressure keeps mounting for the stubborn option sellers.

5/