Nifty Nov 18000CE is above monthly Avwap of 260 now. Lets analyse this CE in detail. As much as we can. Lets start.

Lets see what happened on HDFC on 4/4/22 when it opened 10% gap up on merger news.

At EOD price rose by 9.36% while OI fell by 4.90%. Refer below table on OI and Price Interpretation. It was a clear case of smart money using the upmove to exit the trade

Below is the 15m chart of HDFC on 4/4/22. Yellow line is VWAP line . You can see after 11.00 AM the stock traded below VWAP through out the day. And if you are a smart trader, u know the game has been set there only. Also see the volume on selling side throughout the day in lower

panel.

Actually talking on lay man terms....Business of HDFC is giving home loan and other loans. They were buying money from Bond market or other resources at 5-6% minimum rate and then lending those money to retail client at 1-2% addl profit.

After merger, they will get dirt cheap Savings money of retailer at 2-3% rate, so the money which they was getting at 5-6% is now getting at 2-3%. So straightway decrease in cost to the extent of minimum 30-45%.

Still both the stocks getting sold !!!

Really something is wrong somewhere. And I want to be wrong here, but prices are speaking something bad is cooking.

PS: I did the layman merger advantage of HDFC/HDFCBank as a panwala knowledge

There are few days and expiry where BNF is sitting time bomb. Actually it becomes difficult to understand whether the Option Seller are Complacent or Cautious. Both the words have complete opposite meaning. Let me explain the situation for tomorrow.

BNF closed at 32800 today

BNF closed at 32800 today and the price of 32800 straddle is 370 points only. Means a range of 32800-370 = 32430 on lower side & 32800+370 = 33170 on higher side.

This 32800 straddle started the day at 453 points and ended at 370 points, a decay of only 80 points during the day

32500 PE is trading at Rs 92/- and 33100 CE is trading at Rs 66/-, so basically a small gap of 250-300 points tomorrow can take these CE/PE writer in panick at open. The only good thing in these options is small OI. The OI is too small in comparision to last few expiries.

So difficult to say whether these writer are Cautious or Complacent. Going by the recent trends, 300 points gap is now common in BNF and with such small premium, God knows which side camel will sit.

Not holding any position but can we see the repeat of last THURSDAY ??

Lets start !!!

On Saturday we got surprised announcement of Excise Cut !!

Lets see how the market are placed

As per EOD data, on weekly chain (26/5 expiry)Top 10 CE OI is standing at Rs 254,154,9742/- and top 10 PE OI is standing at Rs 422,770,9945/-. On the face of it, looks like PE value is almost double of CE OI. But here one has to understand that BNF was up 1000 points on Friday

and by nature CE OI will be less. Now going one step further , we will see if BNF starts to crack above 34500, then CE writer to the tune of Rs 1,44,92,96,512/- will be in trouble and above 34800 the figure goes to Rs 2,21,63,59,860/-. Means almost 90% of top 10 CE OI will be

trapped. On PE side the writer will be trapped below 34200 only to the tune of Rs 3,06,01,91,770.00 .

Lets concentrate more on CE side due to AFTER MARKET NEWS !!.

We noticed " OI IMBALANCE BETWEEN CE AND PE " last week(TuesdaY) which exploded on Thursday on

downside and then BNF DID DHAARAMMMM !!!. Here we are seeing the exact opposite scenario. The reason for expecting good upmove on upside is that there is literally NO WRITING IN PE above 34500 and if BNF starts to travel above 34500, then the CE seller will be in loss and

Option Chain is janampatri of CE and PE activity in the market. On a day when BNF moved 750 points we expect huge CE unwinding and good PE writing across the board. It becomes more important when the rally is coming from almost good low and against all round bearish view.

Today weekly OC is showing a sign of COMPLEXITY among the CE writer. Top 10 CE writer holds value to the tune of Rs 237,756,1591/- while PE writing hold value to the tune of Rs 145,980,0081/-. So in top 10 OI , writing in CE is more than PE . And this is after 750 points upmove.

This is quite surprising. It means the CE seller expect market to had made temp top today and dont expect the CE to hit new high tomorrow above today high. This is super conviction on their part. So what may happen tomorrow??? Either they win with their conviction or loose out.

Yehi toh !! Kya toh BNF upar jayga ya niche. But there in lies some catch, we will move one by one. The attached picture shows you that if BNF travels above 34500 tomorrow then these Rs 188,199,0251/- will be trapped and above 34700 the value goes up to Rs 237,756,1591/-

These values are simply huge. CE and PE writer provides balance to the market. The huge Expiry moves happens (where Rs 20 option becomes Rs 100-200) because of this imbalance. Today EOD data is already showing that imbalance for CE writer. Any sustainable upmove with CE

Lets do today EOD data analysis.

We will do in it a 4 step process.
We will see BNF OI total and OI change during the day for both Weekly and monthly strike.

Lets start :

BNF Weekly : Total OI as per EOD

BNF Weekly : OI Change during the day

BNF Monthly : Total OI as per EOD

BNF Monthly : OI Change during the day

A THREAD on . . . .

How @ITRADE191 selects strikes to trade in and how he follows risk management.

Short thread explained via pictures with the help of @niki_poojary.

1. At the start of the week

i.e. on Friday and Monday, DJ Sir prefers to sell OTM options of 50 rs premium in Nifty.

- ATM options won't decay a lot at the beginning
- With this premium reward is good
- Since these strikes are 4-5 strikes away they are relatively safer

2. On Tue/Wed/Fri

He prefers to trade in ATM or near OTM options.

- ATM options have the highest theta decay
- Since there are only 2-3 days to expiry options sellers by default have a higher probability of winning
- Huge reward if market stays flat

3. Directional/Trending days

- Capture huge profit via ATM option selling
- Futures only where he has good conviction
- Even if doesn't trend much decay will be huge
- Only on days Tuesday to Thursday

4. Which series to trade options in?

- INTRADAY trades option selling is ONLY in weekly expiry
- Option buying for hedging is done MAJORLY in next week/monthly expiry
- This way we have time to adjust
- Theta decay slower than weekly

A Thread on the Boss himself @Mitesh_Engr

Mitesh Sir's Positional Option Selling 101:

• How to find direction
• Which options to sell
• How to deploy capital
• Exit criteria
• What ROI he targets weekly
• What % risk he takes

Done with the help of @niki_poojary

How @Mitesh_Engr Sir finds the direction?

• Daily charts S/R
• 75 min charts S/R
• Intraday trend
• Always play directional
• Never trades in strategies

Which options to sell in weekly expiry according to @Mitesh_Engr?

• Weekly candle High/Low
• Sell 1% away options from those
• Exit when levels breached

Position Sizing by @Mitesh_Engr Sir.

How to deploy your capital?

• First sell 20%
• Pyramid the next day
• When to exit
• What to do when view goes wrong
• What to do with idle capital

Some important tweets of @Mitesh_Engr Sir

• What Data to look at
• ROI for safe players per month
• Max risk per day
• Gather knowledge and play directional
• Never play strategies

What is best way to sell strangle in Banknifty on an intraday basis
Simple
at 9:45 Open Option chain and check In which strike highest OI change in call side and put side

Sell both option with combine SL
Enjoy easy and simple intraday trading strategy
Today 35000CE and 34500PE

Thread on
"Intraday Banknifty Strangle based on OI data"

(System already shared, today just share few examples)
(1/n)

-Trade timing after 9:45

-Check Banknifty change in OI data at 9:45, and identify the highest OI built up in call side and put side

-We will sell both strikes with combined premium as SL on both legs.
(2/n)

28th June 2021

BN open-35440
At 9:45 trading at 35350
Highest OI in call side at 35500 CE and 35000 at put side
Strike selection 35500 CE- 35000 PE
(3/n)

29th June 2021

BN open-35323

At 9:45 trading at 35112

Highest OI in call side at 35300 CE and 35000 at put side

Strike selection 35300 CE (232) - 35000 PE (150) Combined premium 382 , Both legs SL 382
(4/n)

30th June 2021

BN open-35030

At 9:45 trading at 35002

Highest OI in call side at 35000 CE and 35000 at put side

Strike selection 35000 CE(176)- 35000 PE(213) Combined premium 389 , Both legs SL 389
(5/n)