BC MATHS
Saved by @CodyyyGardner

It is trying when mathematicians declare condescendingly that there is no point doing things because their models tell them so. Well maybe some of the assumptions don't hold up. How did that work out for the no additional risk from large events and no point in border controls...

 During wave 1 cases fell very fast, faster than I think most people were expecting. Particularly in Scotland. Rt was probably ~0.5 until we started easing off.
This was despite a constant leak of cases coming out of hospitals and LTC facilities as we were rationing PPE and are policies were nowhere near ideal. There was insistence from infection control that droplet protections were sufficient. We have all learned a lot since then.
Not to mention we have learned to avoid the shit show of actively importing cases into care homes. We've learned not to repeat that. Other sectors have learned too.
We've learned a lot and there's no reason we can't control this new variant. But we will not manage if we don't try and act with clarity of purpose.
We also learned from wave 1 not to abandon contact tracing and to test people as early as possible to prevent transmission chains. I.e. TTI. That still holds true. Let us not repeat the mistakes.
In fact, in March we got Rt down to that level with effectively no targeted support from TTI because we were only testing on admission (way too late). And we had so little testing capacity.
In addition, in March there was approximately zero prior immunity. Now there is a non-zero amount and that helps eat into some of the increase in transmissibility.
We have light at the end of the tunnel with vaccines and can target vaccines at those who cannot isolate (essential workers) with more scope to do this the less urgently we need to vaccinate the vulnerable. This helps psychologically and practically.
Practically, for example, having vaccinated workers in LTC and vaccinated people support the elderly is a game changer for isolation.
Rapid testing is another tool we now have that could help alongside TTI and vaccines. We have lots more at our disposal to work with.
Chasing down every case is still going to become *more* not less important. It is perfectly possible that if vaccine evading strains don't arise in the UK we will import them at some time. Will need TTI then. Goes without saying that this will also not be the last pandemic.
I suspect one reason why the TTI is constantly underestimated is that it is in practice just naturally much better at finding cases in high transmission events than no/low transmission cases. And maybe this is hard to model.
For very many human reasons that are just intuitively apparent to anyone who has trained in taking a history from a patient: you have a shared agenda to get to the most important information about the most important events. And you build a shared understanding of what those are.
Perhaps the cases missed are much much more likely to be in the 80% or so of people who don't infect someone else.
For all the obsession with overdispersion of SARS2 and HIT, I actually think this is where it makes the most difference. I think its why many mathematicians seem baffled or underenthused by the East Asian response... sure it works in practice, but it makes no sense in theory.
In addition, just because something doesn't solve the problem on it's own doesn't mean it doesn't help solve the problem.
I don't mean to single out @BristOliver for this rant, so sorry for that. I find your takes on the whole very interesting so hope you don't block me. This just really bugged me on the back of a recent chat with a friend who is a public health trainee.
She has been working very hard on TTI all year and feels drained, and, I think, underappreciated. And I feel strongly that we have not championed this essential work enough. So much so that, I'm told, it is now increasingly common that when contacting people they get vile abuse.
A bit less of this: "there's no point in doing that thing that has been the backbone of every competent outbreak response for over 150 years and that WHO insists is key and that all Covid-controlling countries have invested in" would be nice. (Paraphrasing no-one in particular.)
Even if only out of respect for all the people working their asses off to get it done in incredibly difficult circumstances.

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Spencer Greenberg \U0001f50d
Spencer Greenberg 🔍...
@SpencrGreenberg
Ten components of being compassionate to yourself:

1. Self-friendship: treat yourself at least as well as you would treat a friend who is going through the same situation

[thread]

2. Worthiness: remember that you have value (as all people do), and that your happiness and preferences matter.

3. Self-talk: notice when you are saying something mean to yourself (aloud, or in your head), and rephrase it in a gentler, kinder, more considerate way.

4. Connectedness: reflect on the fact that, whatever challenge you are facing, there are others who are also facing a similar challenge. You are not alone in your pain.

5. Change: note that everything changes with time. If you are dealing with feelings that are difficult to stand at this moment, they will subside. This too shall pass. Things are usually not as important or permanent as they seem to us in the moment that we are focused on them.

6. Self-empathy: orient towards yourself with tenderness, understanding and compassion, especially when you are suffering. Take on the perspective that you would towards a child or loved one that was hurting.
LIFE , MATHS
Yardley Yeadon
Yardley Yeadon
@MichaelYeadon3
@DesmondSwayne Sir Desmond is right. SAGE makes mathematical predictions based on flawed models.
I chose to stick my neck out almost 4mo ago here:
https://t.co/b0rT5Lq9HI
I experienced much anxiety doing this, aware that, if I was badly wrong here, I would be destroyed as a contributor.

That said, I thought the immunology so clear that I made three, specific & testable predictions which should apply if I was right.
Please examine them, on the right, under the pie chart:


In particular, I predicted that the epidemic would not reignite in London. Obviously, we have many “cases” but I urge people to disregard these & instead to look at excess deaths, on the principle that a severe (occasionally lethal) respiratory virus would show itself this way.

Here is a chart showing the trend of deaths in London alone over recent years. A prominent peak of deaths is evident as the virus swept through in spring. Also visible the August heatwave. But there are no excess deaths now.
I submit this is a striking example of herd immunity.


I’m still waiting for SAGE or indeed anyone to provide an alternative explanation for the sharp nature of the spring excess deaths peak which doesn’t involve herd immunity or otherwise removing from the pool those vulnerable to lethal outcomes (same result). Given this sharp...
MATHS
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Gro-Tsen
Gro-Tsen
@gro_tsen
OK, I may be guilty of a DoS attack attempt on mathematicians' brains here, so lest anyone waste too much precious brain time decoding this deliberately cryptic statement, let me do it for you. •1/15


First, as some asked, it is to be parenthesized as: “∀x.∀y.((∀z.((z∈x) ⇒ (((∀t.((t∈x) ⇒ ((t∈z) ⇒ (t∈y))))) ⇒ (z∈y)))) ⇒ (∀z.((z∈x) ⇒ (z∈y))))” (the convention is that ‘⇒’ is right-associative: “P⇒Q⇒R” means “P⇒(Q⇒R)”), but this doesn't clarify much. •2/15

Maybe we can make it a tad less abstruse by using guarded quantifiers (“∀u∈x.(…)” stands for “∀u.((u∈x)⇒(…))”): it is then “∀x.∀y.((∀z∈x.(((∀t∈x.((t∈z) ⇒ (t∈y)))) ⇒ (z∈y))) ⇒ (∀z∈x.(z∈y)))”. •3/15

Maybe a tad clearer again by writing “P(u)” for “u∈y” and leaving out the quantifier on y, viꝫ: “∀x.((∀z∈x.(((∀t∈x.((t∈z) ⇒ P(t)))) ⇒ P(z))) ⇒ (∀z∈x.P(z)))” [✯]. Now it appears as an induction principle: namely, … •4/15

… “in order to prove P(z) for all z∈x, we can assume, when proving P(z), that P(t) is already known for all t∈z∩x” (n.b.: “(∀z.(Q(z)⇒P(z)))⇒(∀z.P(z))” can be read “in order to prove P(z) for all z, we can assume Q(z) known when proving P(z)”). •5/15
MATHS
Riuji
Riuji
@weakconvergence
When I was starting out as a grad student, I remember being frustrated with analysis problems where it didn't use DIRECTLY the things we spent so much time proving in class.

As an example, let's look at a standard real analysis problem:

(1/23)


The problem looks like it can be done using the dominated convergence theorem.

This is an important theorem and is used in a lot of places outside a grad real analysis class. A student would go through a lot of buildup leading to this theorem.

(2/23)

Now, let's see whether the conditions for DCT are satisfied.

First, for fixed 00 as n->infinity.

So we have a.e. convergence of the integrand in [0,1].

To the student, this builds a stronger case to use DCT to solve the problem.

(3/23)

Finding an integrable dominating function is where the problem starts.

It would seem NATURAL (at least for me) to bound it with:

p.s. it feels "natural" to me because it is reminiscent of squeeze theorem problems, math students encounter in calculus.

(4/23)


However, 1/x^n is not integrable in (0,1) and hence cannot be (further) dominated by an integrable function.

So, what I would do is since I know it converges a.e. to 1, maybe it converges uniformly to 1?

This leads me into a BAD detour.

(5/23)
MATHS
Arthouse-Kuklite
Arthouse-Kuklite
@Miltantvibes
1st grade mathematics work sheets and my mother's mathematics teaching style. Mathematics will not be so terrible, since it seems that parents are interested in preparing their little ones for mathematics before school age.


I grew up without understanding how people talk about mathematics as difficult as they do, it was my best topic at school.
MATHS

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Speech Delay is most common in children nowadays

In ancient times, our grandparents used to follow typical natural way of caring the needs of a child. All they used were more of natural products than chemical based for the growth of child.


One of major step followed was to feed Gurbach Jadd/ Vasa Kommu/ Acorus Calamus for initiating good speech ability in a child. This stem was needed to babies on Tuesdays and Sundays in mother's milk.

Vasa is feed to baby after the 1st bath on 12th day in week. Weekly only thrice it is fed and named as :

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The procedure to make it is in the link

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Buddha is Ashtavinayak and "Ganapati Bappa Morya" is "Chandragupta Morya".

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Let us now understand the difference between a real Ganapati and an imaginary Ganapati.
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Some clever Brahmin manuvadis made the real Ganapati the imaginary Ganapati.

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Greg Olear
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