Observing a lot of selling from employees of small & mid-cap IT companies; Recency bias or they know better?

A small mediocre IPO from the space got the attention of a superstar: Shuffling for a quick buck?

Haven’t the valuations baked in all positives?

What if I told you to submit your PhD report by the 1st year of your BTech in engineering.

That’s what people do when they try to find multi-baggers in their 1st business cycle.

Pharma learnings 101:

Higher the difficulty to manufacture, Lower the competition, Higher the pricing power.

Higher the regulatory oversight, the Bigger is the moat for those who comply.

#PharmawithJST

Krsnna Diagnostics IPO notes: 'Let's do Good' ❓

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A thread 🧵👇

#IPOwithJST

1/ Basics about the IPO

Issue Dates: 4 - 6 August
Issue Size: ₹ 1,211 Crore (400crs Fresh Issue & 811crs OFS)
Mcap at the upper band: 2994crs
Price Band: ₹ 933 - 954
Retail Quota: 10%

Promoter stake to go from 32% to 27% post IPO.

2/ About the company.

Krsnaa Diagnostics provides technology-enabled services such as imaging (including radiology), pathology/clinical laboratory, and teleradiology

to public and private hospitals, medical colleges and community health centres across India.

3/ They focus on the public-private partnership (“PPP”) diagnostics segment and have the largest presence in the diagnostic PPP segment.

Contracts are typical of long-term in nature.

Won 77.6% of all tenders since inception & have thus deployed 1823 diagnostic centers.

4/ Operational performance indicators

Windlas Biotech IPO notes 💊

'What's in a name? that which we call a rose by any other name would smell as sweet' ~Shakespeare

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A thread 🧵👇

#IPOwithJST

1/ Basics about the IPO 👇

Incorporated in 2001

Fresh Issue of 165crs (50 for capex | 48 for Working capital | 20 for debt payment) + OFS of 237crs (Partially by promoter & PE Tano selling out as the fund tenure is up)

~ Total raise of 402crs

2/ About the company (Not a Biotech company)

A Contract manufacturer for formulation cos. (204 in total) for Indian markets & a small domestic OTC biz

3279 products, 4 plants with 700cr tablets/capsules capacity

Emphasis on chronic (60% of rev) & complex generics (70% of rev)

3/ History

Revenues:
FY11 - 100cr 👉 FY14 - 200cr 👉 FY21 - 400cr

Growth is similar to the Indian pharmaceutical sector, not gaining any market share even after increasing products.

Customers include Pfizer, Sanofi India, Eris, Cadila, etc.

4/ Competition: No Moat

400+ organized & 15000 unorganized players in the same space: 2% market share

Some of the things that can drive consolidation: Customers preferring better compliance

However, a single customer usually has 35-40 contract manufacturers for products.

Commodity Supercycles.

Hit the 're-tweet' & help us educate more investors.

A micro thread 🧵👇

1/ What is a commodity supercycle?

They are near decade long periods where commodities trade well above their price trend

supercycles are rare

Going back 100 years, Only 3-4 supercycles have been identified & each was tied to a transformational period of economic development.

2/ A one-two year rally in commodity prices is NOT a supercycle, rather could just a rebound from an imp. event as what even happened after the 2008 great recession.

3/ Two commodity supercycles have occurred since the end of World War II.

The 1st started in the mid of 1960s & lasted through the 1970s.

Likely driven by a collapsing US dollar, higher inflation & 2 oil price shocks.

4/ Why US dollar is an important monitorable?

Raw materials are almost always priced in US dollars.

When the value of the dollar drops, it costs more dollars to buy commodities. At the same time, it costs a lesser amount of other currencies when the dollar is moving lower.

Glenmark Life Sciences (GLS) IPO notes 🔬

Plans to take the capacity to 1762KL (currently 762KL) in the next 4 years.

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A thread 🧵👇

#IPOwithJST

1/ About the company

Developer & manufacturer of high value, non- commoditized APIs (complex & low competition) in chronic therapeutic areas: CVS, CNS, pain management & diabetes, etc

Basic details about the IPO 👇

Note: After paying off liabilities, 150crs remain for capex.

2/ The Journey

Established the API business in FY02

Since 2015, Have not received any adverse reactions from regulators (USFDA, PMDA) in the total 38 audits & inspections & Have gone through 432 customer audits.

Filled 403 DMFs & CEP registration across markets globally.

3/ Trends that the company is betting on & what works for them

China+1: India API market growth (10% cagr projected from FY21-26) will outpace the industry: Driven by specialty API+ Strong domestic market

Highest no. of USFDA approved API facilities & % of DMFs filled

4/ Interesting facts

- 120 molecules: $142B market size
- Targetting 8 to 10 new molecules every yr (Key differentiator over time)
- 66% of sales from regulated markets
- Works with 16 of the top 20 generic cos.
- Top 7 customers: 5 to 15yrs old

Bull markets are a great time for fraudster promoters to make money. If you are a fraudster and also want to benefit from this bull market, here's a thread that explains how you can defraud shareholders and get rich.

1. Have a good story to catch investor's attention. Something like "only listed XYZ company" will help. Has zero value in terms of improving long-term cash flows of the business but is excellent branding for a stock. Change the name of the company to what's booming in the market

2. Draw analogies to D-Mart or other businesses that investors love (next Page Industries maybe?). Doesn't matter if your business is nothing like the ones you are comparing it with.

3. Give aggressive guidance. 15% growth is pedestrian. Talk stuff like 1 lakh cr sales/loan book or 50% growth for next 10 years. Your stock should be a potential multi-multi-bagger. Claim that there is no limit to how large you can be.

4. Start making up the numbers. Only Revenue and PAT matters. So don't worry if the Balance Sheet has all sorts of large unexplained scary stuff. No one looks at the BS in a bull market.

BOOKMARK THIS MESSAGE

Causes of Rejection of Application in IPO:

-Never apply more than 1 appl
-PAN in Bank and PAN in Demat shd be same
-Never select Cut Off in HNI appl
-Always Select Cut Off in Retail
-Approve UPI mandate timely
-Demat shd be in Active mode

Anything else ?

#PayTmIPO – Long Thread:
There is a new game in town. The rules are “well laid out” by VCs – Report just 3 yr financials, blame flat sales since 2019 on covid, pick consultants to project fancy story, price IPO at 45 times sales, create scarcity of “limited offer” of 12% shares”

12% stake sale ~matches the “principal investment” by VCs. Oh, by the way, get some tranches of funding just before IPO that values your company closer to issue price. It’s like you buying your own house again for 2x price. May not work for you but somehow seems to work for VCs.

Now rope in mutual funds with 75% of this scarce offering (SIP money will go somewhere after all) & leave retail scrambling for 2.5% stake of a brand that is now a “household name”. Get brokerage firms & YouTube advisors to keep pumping story with same broken records from DRHP.

Vola ! You have launched a successful IPO. With principle off the table, you still have 88% ownership to be gradually transferred overtime to domestic mutual funds, riding on retail (other peoples) money.
They say “a fool & his money will always be parted”.

Everyone rewards excellence & those are rare. Internet is about winner takes all, where one or 2 players dominate the entire industry.
But who rewards mediocrity? Well, enter #PaytmIPO. If Infosys & TCS were a bet on excellence, Paytm is a bet on mediocrity. We’ll see how.

This is a very weird market. Some of the recent IPOs doing well. Old gen stocks not so much. This doesn't augur that well really - needs a trigger to take it back up

One look at the FII data, and god, they are selling like crazy, you would think. But THEY ARE NOT.

FPI data from NSDL (This is the accurate source, not the exchanges) shows that FIIs have put in a whopping 27,000 cr. into IPOs, while taking money out of other stocks.

In fact FII investments in total have been very very high in 2021 with over 95,000 cr. invested. Biggest year for Debt since 2017.

Here's a look at how the Foreign Investors have been investing: