It is counterintuitive but, if you have N100 to invest, (a) the N100 should be a proportion of a larger income, then (b) of the N100, always reserved N25 for downturns, no matter how good it's going with the N75.

1) Get a cup of coffee.

In this thread, I'm going to walk you through "The Kelly Criterion".

2) In 1956, John Kelly published a paper titled "A New Interpretation of Information Rate" in the Bell System Technical Journal.

3) In the paper, Kelly described a simple and elegant way for investors to strategically allocate capital in the face of uncertainty.

This is what is now known as the Kelly Criterion.

4) The approach is easiest to understand with an example.

I'll keep it as realistic as possible:

Imagine that you walk into an antique store one day. Due to the persistence of the salesman there, you buy an old lamp from him.

5) You take the lamp home. You rub it. Out comes a genie. Nothing unusual.

@TheLastDegree Today, the actual size of the silver market is, according to Bloomberg, of $5 trillion.

$5 trillion divided by 20 billion (physical market) = 250

250 X $20 (silver spot price) = $5,000 an ounce

THREAD, PM EXIT STRATEGY

I sometimes get the question “At what price do I liquidate my PM portfolio?” The short answer is:

A) I´ll never sell all of it

and

B) I don´t have a PT. I could start selling at $1900 or at $100000, it depends.

For the longer explanation, 👇

Albert Einstein once famously said “Everything is relative”. I find that quote very useful in the world of investing as well.

First off, my preferred style of investing is more influenced by macro than micro (macroeconomics vs company specific).

That means I often buy a commodity, an ETF or a basket of companies operating in the sector of interest.

I frequently look at certain ratios, or said another way, instrument X relative to instrument Y.

By analyzing historical data, I´ve set up different “ratio milestones” for when history tells me to start unwinding the ratio. As these milestones are triggered, I sell 25% of the relatively stronger instrument. For every additional 10% skew in the ratio, I sell another 25% etc.

This means I´ll never pick the absolute top nor the bottom, but I should extract much of the value while keeping my emotions out of it.

An example where this principle is adopted is shown in the Gold/Silver ratio -graph below.

1/ The SPAC I’ve been tracking is $SAII, merging with Otonomo.

It’s a marketplace that enables auto manufacturers to monetize their connected car data that it aggregates and standardizes using its data platform. It projects revenue to grow from $3M in 2021 to $574M by 2025.

2/ Platform:

Otonomo is standardizing data using its patent-pending technology from its 16 OEM partners including Ford, GM, and BMW who provide data on 40M connected cars (4.3B data points daily), to make it easily usable by consumers and developers who can access it via API.

3/ Similar to other aggregators like $ROKU or $TTD, one of their biggest advantages is their neutrality. Many mobility services can’t operate well without data from multiple OEMs but individual OEMs lack the incentive to share their data with competitors.

4/ Otonomo is collecting over 150 data parameters per vehicle such as engine status, temperature, speed, location, fuel or battery levels, or seatbelt status. This is then normalized across OEMs and car models, anonymized, cleansed, and enriched through AI/ML.

5/ There are hundreds of use cases that range from helping drivers to find parking to helping rental companies monitor their fleets in real-time or insurance companies offer usage-based insurance and better claims processing. Otonomo charges usage-based fees based on use-case.