Phenomenal article/compilation on "The Biggest Mistakes Investors Make". h/t @manualofideas @JMihaljevic 👏

cc: @dmuthuk @Gautam__Baid @saxena_puru

My fav pts in the thread below

Excellent article on Investor psychology & Market cycles based on Howard Marks' "Mastering the Market Cycle".

cc: @dmuthuk @Gautam__Baid

My fav pts 👇

continued...

Excellent pts 👇

✔️Mania and risk
"The combination of feedback loops and irrational exuberance, where newfound expectations and enthusiasm, encourages investors to bid up and rationalize extraordinary growth in asset prices.

By contrast, during periods of fear and pessimism, many face difficulties with identifying potential future value beyond the immediate-term.

An understanding of where attitudes to risk sits within the current investor psychology cycle can be a useful knowledge advantage.

"6 Rules From 6 of the World's Top Investors" - Nice article with some good lessons for long-term investors.

1⃣ Let Winners Run
2⃣ Do the Research
3⃣ Have Conviction
4⃣ Patience Is Key
5⃣ Be Wary (of random advice)
6⃣ Look

1⃣ Let Winners Run : "Be patient with winning trades; be enormously impatient with losing trades."

Although this is in reference to trading, it applies well to long-term investors also. Be patient and don't take quick/small gains when you're invested in wonderful companies..

..acquired at decent prices with lot of growth ahead.

At the same time, if the thesis is broken and you no longer believe in the Company which has been a loser in your Portfolio, don't stay invested with a hope of coming out even.

2⃣ Do the Research : "First, look at the quality of the company, then at the price. Looking at the quality of a company requires that you read financial statements, listen to conference calls, and vet management.

Then, only after you have confidence in the quality of the company, should the price be evaluated.

If a company isn't a quality company, don't buy it just because the price is low. Bargain-bin companies often produce bargain-bin results."

Good Investing Checklist that goes thru Basics, Financials, Valuation & Behavioral factors. h/t Nicole Seah (not sure if it's @startingfromnix)

1.The Story
Do I understand the business?
Do I believe in the mission?
Moat?
How well do I trust Mgmt?
Do I know the key risks?
Do I have an idea why the company is trading at a discount to its intrinsic value?
What are the potential catalysts?
Is there room for future growth?

2. Financial Metrics
Financial statements and footnotes
Cyclical, countercyclical?
Inflation impact
Operating Leverage
Assessing Working Capital + Capex
Trends in Revenues, Margins, Cash flows...
Recent investments, acquisitions?

3.Valuation
Relative Valuation
DCF

Good pts on few of the behavioral biases to watch out for 👇

Ben Graham's "The Intelligent Investor" is a horrible book if you're using it purely for the quant formulas in today's Markets, but probably THE BEST BOOK if you're interested in learning about the core investing concepts, and eternal truths about the Markets & its participants.

Below are few of my fav quotes organized by topic.

1⃣ Discipline

2⃣ Investing vs Speculation

3⃣ Mr. Market

4⃣ Bear Markets

@TheLastDegree Today, the actual size of the silver market is, according to Bloomberg, of $5 trillion.

$5 trillion divided by 20 billion (physical market) = 250

250 X $20 (silver spot price) = $5,000 an ounce

RIPPLE’S DUE PROCESS CLAIM:
In @Ripple’s Answer it asserted a defense that the SEC should be barred from claiming #XRP is a security today because it violates Due Process and principles of Fair Notice. Previously, I discussed a similar concept called the doctrine of equitable

estoppel. I explained the law protects a party from being harmed by another party's voluntary conduct. That conduct may be ACTIONS, INACTION, SILENCE, or ACQUIESCENCE. Although the SEC never declared XRP a non-security, for EIGHT YEARS it openly traded in unison with #ETH and

#BTC. During this time, some from the SEC, including Clayton, commented that #BTC and/or #ETH were not securities. For 8 years the SEC’s actions, inaction, silence and acquiescence implied that XRP was also NOT a security. Let’s review a few of the SEC’s actions, inaction,

silence and/or acquiescence related to #XRP. (1) During the period of time the SEC claims XRP was a security, the SEC granted Ripple permission to take a minority stake in MoneyGram (MGI). Ripple invested $50 million purchasing approximately 9% of MGI. The SEC approved this

purchase of MGI with the full knowledge that Ripple would encourage MGI to use XRP as a cross-border utility token related to remittances. The SEC allowed the use of this so-called illegal security to be utilized not just by Ripple, but by MGI. The SEC admitted to this knowledge

1/ The SPAC I’ve been tracking is $SAII, merging with Otonomo.

It’s a marketplace that enables auto manufacturers to monetize their connected car data that it aggregates and standardizes using its data platform. It projects revenue to grow from $3M in 2021 to $574M by 2025.

2/ Platform:

Otonomo is standardizing data using its patent-pending technology from its 16 OEM partners including Ford, GM, and BMW who provide data on 40M connected cars (4.3B data points daily), to make it easily usable by consumers and developers who can access it via API.

3/ Similar to other aggregators like $ROKU or $TTD, one of their biggest advantages is their neutrality. Many mobility services can’t operate well without data from multiple OEMs but individual OEMs lack the incentive to share their data with competitors.

4/ Otonomo is collecting over 150 data parameters per vehicle such as engine status, temperature, speed, location, fuel or battery levels, or seatbelt status. This is then normalized across OEMs and car models, anonymized, cleansed, and enriched through AI/ML.

5/ There are hundreds of use cases that range from helping drivers to find parking to helping rental companies monitor their fleets in real-time or insurance companies offer usage-based insurance and better claims processing. Otonomo charges usage-based fees based on use-case.

In 2009, an unknown investor from Russia came out of nowhere to make one of the greatest late stage venture bets in the history of Silicon Valley. Why did FB choose an outsider to lead our Series D round? Here’s the inside story:

2 years earlier we famously raised from Microsoft at $15B valuation. That turned out to be a mistake because it set us up for a painful down round. By 2009 growth had slowed and the financial crisis crushed advertising. “Smart money” bids for our Series D were coming in at $3-6B.

We had a high bid at $8B from a respected valley firm, and we had a wildcard bid from Yuri Milner/DST who offered to top any other bid by 20%. We initially chose the reputable firm at a lower price, but they refused to drop a ratchet provision so we decided to give DST a chance.

Yuri understood 2 things that nobody else could see at the time: 1/ He had seen virtual currencies in Eastern Europe and China, believed FB could make money this way. 2/ We were offering secondary shares at 40% discount to preferred, DST was the only firm who valued this.

Yuri not only offered to clear the highest bid by 20%, he also offered to let Zuck vote all of his shares including any secondary shares purchased from early employees. This allowed Zuck to consolidate his voting power.