We *know* that there will be a vote on Coronavirus Tier system on Tue 1 Dec, with the system to come into force from the end of 2 Dec
There *might* be a Brexit Deal at the start of next week as well, and Johnson having to OK it or not
2/12
Next week is shaping up to be one hell of a week in 🇬🇧 politics
It all revolves around parliamentary sovereignty, Tory party shenanigans, and Johnson's need to survive and if that contradicts with doing the right thing
Bear with me - this is messy but important
1/12
We *know* that there will be a vote on Coronavirus Tier system on Tue 1 Dec, with the system to come into force from the end of 2 Dec
There *might* be a Brexit Deal at the start of next week as well, and Johnson having to OK it or not
2/12
I am not well placed to judge whether the Tier system is right (don't @ - reply me about that), but it's enough to say there are 3 grounds for critique
- do lockdowns work?
- does THIS lockdown system work?
- has my town/region been harshly treated?
3/12
Labour could easily justify voting against in that some of the judgments on Tiers are not strictly based on the science
But what does voting *against* mean?
4/12
5/12
https://t.co/Djlx8oQH5r
Yes they could table new regulations and could use the emergency procedure so that parliament doesn't have to vote on them until 4 weeks later. So the govt has a lot of leeway (legally if not politically)
— Adam Wagner (@AdamWagner1) November 27, 2020
But that makes Tuesday's vote - above all - an opportunity to give Johnson a bloody nose. It's a free hit
6/12
In the middle of a very political & symbolic fight over Corona restrictions. And like on Corona, Tory backbench power to stop a Deal happening is low - not least because Labour will abstain or even back a Deal. The damage is political.
7/12
8/12
If Johnson were to cede to backbenchers on Corona now - e.g. loosening or reallocating Tiers - Labour wallops him for being anti-science. Not handy.
9/12
Ceding on Corona might help him get more backing for a Brexit Deal.
10/12
But getting his Corona Tiers approved, *and* getting a Deal acceptable to the Tory backbenches, is going to leave Johnson looking politically heavily battered.
11/12
It's not a simple choice!
12/12
This does not change the essence of my argument here though!
Interesting -- you say "come into force from the end of 2 Dec", though the official guidance says "The new rules will come into effect from the beginning of Wednesday 2 December" (less than 28 days since they started "from 00:01 on Thursday 5 November"!) https://t.co/A56qt7rYVt
— Matt Sendorek (@matt_sendorek) November 27, 2020
More from Jon Worth
OK, it can be avoided no more.
This is perhaps the most complex 🧵 on #Brexit I've ever attempted. But this issue really matters.
Business, possibly even lives, depend on getting this stuff right.
It is about the complexity of Brexit delay, and what to do about it.
1/25
If negotiations had gone to plan, it would have worked thus:
1️⃣ 🇬🇧&🇪🇺 agree a Deal, politically
2️⃣ That is then turned into a legally ratifiable text
3️⃣ Both sides then ratify - on 🇪🇺 side Member States and the EP, 🇬🇧 side the Houses of Parliament
4️⃣ Deal in force 1.1.2021
2/25
The problem: we do not have 1️⃣ yet.
And with just over 16 days to go - including 🌲 - we do not have time for 2️⃣ and 3️⃣ and hence no 4️⃣.
We *might* have time for 2️⃣ - and that could prove to be significant (see tweet 7 below), but definitely not 3️⃣ on 🇪🇺 side.
3/25
*Essential* problem: by having spent so long talking (I think 🇬🇧 tactic has been to run down the clock - https://t.co/8EJZAJZHqz ) the path to a normal ratification is now ⛔️.
Now ratification becomes harder - legally, politically, practically - with every passing hour.
4/25
The most obvious stumbling block is...
🥁🥁🥁
... the European Parliament!
Parliamentary sovereignty, eh? A topic for another time.
Anyway, the EP has said it will not vote on a Brexit Deal this
This is perhaps the most complex 🧵 on #Brexit I've ever attempted. But this issue really matters.
Business, possibly even lives, depend on getting this stuff right.
It is about the complexity of Brexit delay, and what to do about it.
1/25
If negotiations had gone to plan, it would have worked thus:
1️⃣ 🇬🇧&🇪🇺 agree a Deal, politically
2️⃣ That is then turned into a legally ratifiable text
3️⃣ Both sides then ratify - on 🇪🇺 side Member States and the EP, 🇬🇧 side the Houses of Parliament
4️⃣ Deal in force 1.1.2021
2/25
The problem: we do not have 1️⃣ yet.
And with just over 16 days to go - including 🌲 - we do not have time for 2️⃣ and 3️⃣ and hence no 4️⃣.
We *might* have time for 2️⃣ - and that could prove to be significant (see tweet 7 below), but definitely not 3️⃣ on 🇪🇺 side.
3/25
*Essential* problem: by having spent so long talking (I think 🇬🇧 tactic has been to run down the clock - https://t.co/8EJZAJZHqz ) the path to a normal ratification is now ⛔️.
Now ratification becomes harder - legally, politically, practically - with every passing hour.
4/25
The most obvious stumbling block is...
🥁🥁🥁
... the European Parliament!
Parliamentary sovereignty, eh? A topic for another time.
Anyway, the EP has said it will not vote on a Brexit Deal this
Pretty clear again speaking to Mep's they won't countenance debating or ratifying any EU-UK trade agreement before December 31st #Brexit
— Shona Murray (@ShonaMurray_) December 15, 2020
Mep's are pretty annoyed at the very suggestion that it would be provisionally applied and the ratification would be a simple rubber stamp.
More from Politics
THREAD
1)
@SidneyPowell1 reflects on #Iran’s meddling in the U.S. in a recent tweet to U.S. President Donald Trump.
This thread focuses on Iran’s dangerous influence in the U.S., especially through its DC-based lobby group
2)
Why is this important?
@DNI_Ratcliffe "told CBS News that there was foreign election interference by China, #Iran & Russia in November of this year [2020]."
All Americans should be informed about how Iran & its lobby group NIAC are meddling in the
3)
#Iran has been increasingly aiming to interfere in U.S. elections specifically through NIAC.
DNI John Ratcliffe had previously shed light on this vital
4)
NIAC is a lobby group in the U.S. pushing Iran’s talking points.
Listen to this Iranian regime insider explain that NIAC was established by @JZarif, the foreign minister of
5)
@tparsi is the official founder of NIAC in the U.S.
Listen to how Trita Parsi parrots Zarif’s talking
1)
@SidneyPowell1 reflects on #Iran’s meddling in the U.S. in a recent tweet to U.S. President Donald Trump.
This thread focuses on Iran’s dangerous influence in the U.S., especially through its DC-based lobby group
Dear @realDonaldTrump
— Sidney Powell \U0001f1fa\U0001f1f8\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50 (@SidneyPowell1) December 23, 2020
#China and #Iran stole this election from the #American people
who voted for you in a world-record landslide!
We must expose all the corruption and restore the Republic now
There will never be a free and fair election if we don\u2019t end the rigging now \U0001f1fa\U0001f1f8 pic.twitter.com/2t707xN0ar
2)
Why is this important?
@DNI_Ratcliffe "told CBS News that there was foreign election interference by China, #Iran & Russia in November of this year [2020]."
All Americans should be informed about how Iran & its lobby group NIAC are meddling in the
3)
#Iran has been increasingly aiming to interfere in U.S. elections specifically through NIAC.
DNI John Ratcliffe had previously shed light on this vital
4)
NIAC is a lobby group in the U.S. pushing Iran’s talking points.
Listen to this Iranian regime insider explain that NIAC was established by @JZarif, the foreign minister of
5)
@tparsi is the official founder of NIAC in the U.S.
Listen to how Trita Parsi parrots Zarif’s talking
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Those who exited at 1500 needed money. They can always come back near 969. Those who exited at 230 also needed money. They can come back near 95.
Those who sold L @ 660 can always come back at 360. Those who sold S last week can be back @ 301
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— BhavinKhengarSuratGujarat (@IntradayWithBRK) September 19, 2021
Neuland 2700 se 1500 & Sequent 330 to 230 kya huwa.. 99% retailers/investors twitter par charcha n EXIT\U0001f602
