The bipartisan bill was met by Mitch McConnell at the front door of the senate with the words "The Senate is not going to be bullied into rushing out more borrowed money into the hands of Democrats' rich friends who don't need the help.” #velshi
1/11
The House of Reps approving $2000 relief checks rather than $600 dollars. That’s a big deal. $2000 checks could ease the pain just long enough for millions of Americans to remember this is the good our government can do in moments like these. #velshi
The bipartisan bill was met by Mitch McConnell at the front door of the senate with the words "The Senate is not going to be bullied into rushing out more borrowed money into the hands of Democrats' rich friends who don't need the help.” #velshi
The bipartisan bill for $2,000 checks was met by Mitch McConnell at the front door of the senate with the words, "The Senate is not going to be bullied into rushing out more borrowed money into the hands of Democrats' rich friends who don't need the help.” #velshi
What is, indeed, “rich” is Mitch McConnell - estimated to be around the 9th wealthiest person in congress - and who makes $193,000/yr, talking about people’s “rich friends”.
#velshi
If you add $2,000 to the $1,200 checks that went out in March, that’s $3200 over 9 months. $11.85/day. Nobody’s getting rich off of that. #velshi
The cost of the relief bill, as it stands, with the $600 relief checks, totals $900 billion dollars. Increasing the checks to $2000 dollars would cost an additional $464 billion. That would be a total of $1.36 trillion dollars in relief. #velshi
$1.3 Trillion IS a lot of money. But it’s a lot less than the $2.3 trillion-dollar cost of the Trump tax cuts that Mitch McConnell quickly jumped on-board with and benefitted far fewer people in need. #velshi
The Trump tax cuts, which mostly benefited corporations and the rich, had overwhelming GOP support in the Senate. This Democratic bill to increase payments to $2k won’t get a vote in the Republican controlled senate, which McConnell brags is where bills go to die. #velshi
When you’re as wealthy as Mitch McConnell - estimated to be worth more than $35M - you can’t know what it’s like to choose between paying the electric bill or buying food. #velshi
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Let me take a stab at this after years of reporting on Marine One, HMX-1, Continuity of Government, etc. None of this is definitive, but it could help explain what folks are seeing:
1.) HMX-1, which flies the VH-3D and VH-60N 'White Top' helicopters used to move... 1/X
the President and VP around, those helos being called Marine One or Two when either is onboard, need to train. The urban landing zones, including WH and VP Residence, are not simple to get in and out of. So, crews need some currency training. They are not just tasked with... 2/X
moving POTUS and VP to get them around the region and to Andrews AFB for long-haul flights, they are essential to Continuity of Government operations. This means that if a threat were to emerge, they need to be ready to snatch POTUS and VP in minutes. This is partially... 3/X
why they have a full forward operating location at Naval Support Activity Anacostia, just 3 miles from the WH. As such, practice is important and considering the state of things, it is critical now more than in any recent memory. 4/X
2.) Considering what happened last week, including mobs of Trump supporters screaming in unison to hang the VP for doing what the constitution states, absolutely despicable in every way, security has been tightened just as it has been all over. Using the helicopters instead.. 5/X
1.) HMX-1, which flies the VH-3D and VH-60N 'White Top' helicopters used to move... 1/X
Very noisy helicopters flying around Vice President\u2019s residence \u2014 what is going on? pic.twitter.com/XPs1A3px7m
— Michael Beschloss (@BeschlossDC) January 11, 2021
the President and VP around, those helos being called Marine One or Two when either is onboard, need to train. The urban landing zones, including WH and VP Residence, are not simple to get in and out of. So, crews need some currency training. They are not just tasked with... 2/X
moving POTUS and VP to get them around the region and to Andrews AFB for long-haul flights, they are essential to Continuity of Government operations. This means that if a threat were to emerge, they need to be ready to snatch POTUS and VP in minutes. This is partially... 3/X
why they have a full forward operating location at Naval Support Activity Anacostia, just 3 miles from the WH. As such, practice is important and considering the state of things, it is critical now more than in any recent memory. 4/X
2.) Considering what happened last week, including mobs of Trump supporters screaming in unison to hang the VP for doing what the constitution states, absolutely despicable in every way, security has been tightened just as it has been all over. Using the helicopters instead.. 5/X
Which metric is a better predictor of the severity of the fall surge in US states?
1) Margin of Democrat victory in Nov 2020 election
or
2) % infected through Sep 1, 2020
Can you guess which plot is which?
The left plot is based on the % infected through Sep 1, 2020. You can see that there is very little correlation with the % infected since Sep 1.
However, there is a *strong* correlation when using the margin of Biden's victory (right).
Infections % from https://t.co/WcXlfxv3Ah.
This is the strongest single variable I've seen in being able to explain the severity of this most recent wave in each state.
Not past infections / existing immunity, population density, racial makeup, latitude / weather / humidity, etc.
But political lean.
One can argue that states that lean Democrat are more likely to implement restrictions/mandates.
This is valid, so we test this by using the Government Stringency Index made by @UniofOxford.
We also see a correlation, but it's weaker (R^2=0.36 vs 0.50).
https://t.co/BxBBKwW6ta
To avoid look-ahead bias/confounding variables, here is the same analysis but using 2016 margin of victory as the predictor. Similar results.
This basically says that 2016 election results is a better predictor of the severity of the fall wave than intervention levels in 2020!
1) Margin of Democrat victory in Nov 2020 election
or
2) % infected through Sep 1, 2020
Can you guess which plot is which?
The left plot is based on the % infected through Sep 1, 2020. You can see that there is very little correlation with the % infected since Sep 1.
However, there is a *strong* correlation when using the margin of Biden's victory (right).
Infections % from https://t.co/WcXlfxv3Ah.
This is the strongest single variable I've seen in being able to explain the severity of this most recent wave in each state.
Not past infections / existing immunity, population density, racial makeup, latitude / weather / humidity, etc.
But political lean.
One can argue that states that lean Democrat are more likely to implement restrictions/mandates.
This is valid, so we test this by using the Government Stringency Index made by @UniofOxford.
We also see a correlation, but it's weaker (R^2=0.36 vs 0.50).
https://t.co/BxBBKwW6ta
To avoid look-ahead bias/confounding variables, here is the same analysis but using 2016 margin of victory as the predictor. Similar results.
This basically says that 2016 election results is a better predictor of the severity of the fall wave than intervention levels in 2020!
