Donna Strickland, one of this year's Nobel Laureates, was not considered "notable enough" for Wikipedia as late as this May—reported by a number of sites, including the Independent. I dug into this a little. Here's the data—
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Some thoughts worked out in a letter to a friend, which is the kind of thing you do when off Twitter for a glorious week. (🧵)
“Chance is ignorance”—the Bayesian story; all probabilities represent states of mind, not states of the world. One *could* put (some) chances “in the world”, but let’s take Occam’s Razor seriously...
That the probability of a fair coin coming up heads is 50% simply means that marginalizing (tracing, as the physicists say) over the hidden facts leaves you, nearly, maximally ignorant of the outcome.
Quantum uncertainty (access below!) poses an apparent challenge to this story. There seems to be nothing to be ignorant about when it comes to (say) electron spin—there is nothing “inside” the
The electron is a simple object, in other words. So where does the uncertainty come from? One could follow David Wallace’s wonderful interpretation in terms of chaotic dynamics and decoherence, but let’s see if we can take another route...
It was pretty simple to do—Apple Time Machine backups let me do it with one click.
That first tweet captures, in two pictures, how badly Apple has “lost the plot” (to quote @wylieprof). On the right is the Apple MagSafe adapter, from 2013. On the left, what I had “upgraded” to.
Thanks, Apple! I really was nostalgic for worrying about yanking my computer off the table.
Oh and I really appreciated not knowing if my computer was charging. What was great was the little whoop sound you used, so that the speaker before me could be informed I was charging my laptop.
One thing that’s always struck me is how *late* probability theory came in intellectual history. We had integral calculus before we had probability. And probability is insanely simple, mathematically!
I’m tempted to say that probability theory is not, in fact, Lindy. Frequentist probability is (for all the usual reasons) best understood as a heuristic. Bayesian interpretations, by contrast, take the remarkable step of tying it to mental states.
You have to work very hard to convince yourself that beliefs really are “degrees of belief in sets of events” (or whatever). It’s not natural—and I won’t rehearse the whole story about rational choice and decision theory...
So with those critiques in the back of my mind, when I read David Wallace’s decision-theoretic account of the Born Rule I was rather primed to say, hey, so what? Meaning...
In this case, it's a theory about compensation: the worse one's luck is, the more likely it is to see a reversal. On the surface, it's irrational. The more bad luck you have, the more you accumulate evidence that the system is rigged.
But there's also an anthropic component. If the luck is bad enough, it starts to become inconsistent with your survival. You've accumulated evidence for correlations in the environment, but these correlations (may be) inconsistent with (people like you) being in this environment.
An example. You're in a city where everyone takes public transport. You encounter a string of bad delays. It's reasonable to conclude they'll end—otherwise people wouldn't take public transport. It's unlikely that you happened to show up right when the network collapses.
Of course, that's a bad heuristic in a casino, which relies on a constant influx of losers. But in other environments, particularly with persistent populations and no evidence for sudden changes in the underlying laws, it makes sense.
As a dean of a major academic institution, I could not have said this. But I will now. Requiring such statements in applications for appointments and promotions is an affront to academic freedom, and diminishes the true value of diversity, equity of inclusion by trivializing it. https://t.co/NfcI5VLODi— Jeffrey Flier (@jflier) November 10, 2018
We know that elite institutions like the one Flier was in (partial) charge of rely on irrelevant status markers like private school education, whiteness, legacy, and ability to charm an old white guy at an interview.
Harvard's discriminatory policies are becoming increasingly well known, across the political spectrum (see, e.g., the recent lawsuit on discrimination against East Asian applications.)
It's refreshing to hear a senior administrator admits to personally opposing policies that attempt to remedy these basic flaws. These are flaws that harm his institution's ability to do cutting-edge research and to serve the public.
Harvard is being eclipsed by institutions that have different ideas about how to run a 21st Century institution. Stanford, for one; the UC system; the "public Ivys".
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Climate change poses one of the greatest threats humanity has ever faced. While it is nearly impossible to comprehend the magnitude of the challenge, the problem itself is quite straightforward: There’s too much CO2 in the atmosphere.
Most efforts to combat climate change, including today’s carbon markets, suffer from the same fatal flaw: They focus on what’s called avoidance—the prevention of future, additional greenhouse-gas emissions. They rarely deal with pulling CO2 out of the atmosphere.
Getting to zero emissions is an important goal, but cutting emissions alone will not reverse climate change. To safeguard our future, we need to remove the more than one trillion tonnes of CO2 we’ve already added.
As futuristic as it sounds, there are many ways to take CO2 out of the atmosphere, including to regenerative agriculture, afforestation, biochar, marine permaculture, BECCS, mineral carbonation, direct-air capture, and more. https://t.co/Eqagfi1YVK has for more info on each.
Watch the video -->
A. Yes! When using arrow functions, the scope of "this" is effectively passed in from the outer scope. See here in this REPL
Q. Where does Polymer fit in? Is it considered a framework like the others?
A. @Polymer is an excellent way to create web components, which are ideal for creating sets of interactivity that can be shared in web apps.
Q. Have we gone framework crazy?
A. At one time, quite possibly. A few years back we literally had framework overload. I feel it really has solidified into a few very strong choices.
Q. [Is] there no more need for @polymer?
A. See my previous question on this ... but in general, I think there is a lot of room for Web Components with frameworks.
10 simple questions that CHANGED my life
(startup life, personal life)
Here they are:
Q: Can you really control that?
Smart people know what they can and cannot control
If you're living in the past, you're nostalgic
If you're living in the future, you're anxious
If you're living in the present, you're at peace
Q: Did you start today with a victory?
Starting every day with a victory sets you up to win
I don't care what it is:
- Make your bed
- Make a wonderful coffee
- Hug your wife or children
No such thing as a small win. It's a win!
You'll win more, if you start winning early
Q: What are you optimizing for?
The world rewards those who are focused
Are you being optimistic?
Guaranteed: more luck when you're optimistic
Start with a low capital and master all 3 phases of the market – upward, downward and consolidation. If your winning trades are >60-70%, then increase your capital.
Treat trading as a business and target similar gains. An annual profit of 25% is reasonable and achievable.
Does a restaurant change recipes every day? No.
Similarly, stick to strategies if there is a 70% success rate. If it doesn’t work for 2 months, don’t worry, it might work for the rest of the 10 months
Option buyers need more skill than sellers as they need to catch the direction at the right time.
Recently, 6 soldiers of Assam police were martyred defending territorial boundaries of Assam from Mizoram encroachers backed by Mizoram police.
This is a thread about Mizoram and the origin of this conflict
To be sure, Assam is not the only state Mizoram is at loggerheads with.
Mizoram also has conflicts with other states on its border.
Last year, Mizoram targeted a village on Tripura border because Hindus of the village planned to construct Shiva
For Mizoram, which does not celebrate "International Yoga Day" because Church considers Yoga "anti Christian", building a Hindu temple was too much.
Mizoram Government imposed section 144 because "a Hindu temple would disturb peace and
Here is a question:
Mizoram was earlier a district in Assam by name "Mizo hills"
When it started agitation for statehood, its population was 1.96 lakh.
Even today, Mizoram population is 10.91 lakhs.
How could a small district bully the nation to accept its separatist demand?
To attempt an answer, we delve into history. And history is shocking.
This region was ruled by Ahoms & then British.
But there is not a SINGLE mention of "Mizos" or "Mizoram" until 19th & early 20th century.
In-fact, it was officially known as "Lushai Hills" until 1952
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Bin Salman heads only one faction.
Mohammad Bin Salman [MbS] not only has to deal with states in the region that want to thwart his plans for Saudi Arabia [SA} & the Middle East [ME] such as Iran, Turkey, Syria, Russia, Quatar...he also has people inside SA itself that don't like his reforms or agenda.
So when the narrative gets presented that "The only way Khashoggi could end up dead is on the direct orders of MbS" you might want to keep this in mind.
There are SEVERAL ways Khashoggi could end up meeting his demise at the hands of Saudis not working on the orders of MbS.
Powerful factions within SA, several of whom do not like the Crown Prince's reforms or the fact he was promoted to his current position ahead of others in the royal family, could have done this in the hopes of pinning it on MbS.
Too many false/fake news stories came out of Turkey in the past week to say anything further. This latest news comes just after it was reported Pompeo heard an audio of the killing that was quickly walked back in less than a day.
Facebook cannot change course. The best they can do is keep dishing out empty apologies, commit to inconsequential adjustments to its algorithms, and spend more money on positive PR and negative projection. The rot is at the core of its very being.
This is why we, consumers and citizens, must make the change for Facebook. Antitrust forcing a breakup of the business, and consumer revolt driving #DeleteFacebook. Zuckerberg will never conclude that what he built has become such a net negative for the world on his own.
That’s why its so tragic that WhatsApp sold out to Facebook in particular. Finally a challenger that had a different model and different ethics. But few would say no to $19B, which is why we need antitrust enforcers to do it for them.
You refused to reveal your own STI results to me, but claimed to others they were negative and alleged I had multiple other partners, slut-shaming me. You gaslit me saying you had told me about your other partners.
You called up @justice_sisters and @SistersinIslam to tell them I was crazy, jilted. You rebuffed attempts to organise a community mediation so we could address matters. You said I was crazy for speaking to your boss and father in an attempt to keep other women safe.
You have a PATTERN OF BEHAVIOUR of misogyny, harassment and sheer disrespect for women. This was sent to a friend of mine who has never expressed interest in you and has a partner.
You think women are playthings, notches on the bedpost. You, @surendraananth, are no human rights advocate.
Last week I launched Marketing Examples to Product Hunt.
✔️ 1,500+ upvotes
✔️ Product of the Week
✔️ Email list grew from 1,300 to 3,300
This is the step by step account of how I did it
Step 1 - Don't launch straight away
23rd May 2019 Marketing Examples v1.0 went live. The site had a few case studies, several bugs, and an email box which didn’t convert well.
The old version of me would have thrown it on Product Hunt straight away. But I decided to wait.
1) I didn’t want to waste my “turn” with the very first iteration of my site.
2) I didn’t want to launch in a vacuum. Product Hunt multiplies current momentum. Having a small following of “fans” on launch day goes a long way.
So I set myself a target.
✔️ 1000 email subscribers
✔️ 1000 twitter followers
And then I would launch. 70 days later I hit my target.
It was showtime.