BC FOR LATER READ
Saved by @CodyyyGardner

I invite people to run the thought experiment: “what if the ‘cases’ data is inaccurate?”
Ignore ‘cases’, look instead only at excess deaths (per M Levitt’s tweet). Does that look characteristic of an epidemic? It’s completely diff from spring or any winter flu outbreak.
London:

 @ukiswitheu Can anyone explain why there is no ‘2nd wave’ of excess deaths in London, without invoking herd immunity?
It’s not lockdown. See NW England:
This is the largest #SecondaryRipple (which I predicted).
@ukiswitheu https://t.co/b0rT5Lq9HI
Now check the 3 predictions I made months ago. They’ve all happened. Compare predictions from SAGE’s statements: they’re all wrong.
Even neutrals at this point might ask themselves “if he’s been right on all predictions, maybe he’s correct now?”
@ukiswitheu I’ve been saying since the Lighthouse Labs got up & running that I’m deeply sceptical about the trustworthiness of their ‘cases’ data. I showed how, at low virus prevalence, the PCR mass testing data was throwing out potentially 90% positives being false?
https://t.co/7tdvEaNSvN
@ukiswitheu https://t.co/t4qQN4rH0u
I got ‘fact checked’ a LOT over that statement. This paper just published, about precisely that time period I speculated about. Turns out that high-80s% of Dr Healy’s positives by PCR were FALSE. This alone is sufficient in my view to throw severe doubt...
@ukiswitheu ...on the trustworthiness of PCR mass testing. And Healy’s findings pre-date Lighthouse Labs! So this was tail end of accredited, well trained NHS path lab testing data. It’s not their fault. I’m not criticising them. It’s a consequence of using a completely unsuitable testing...
@ukiswitheu ...methodology, PCR mass testing, as our surveillance system. Now scroll forward to today. Lighthouse Labs are a small group of private facilities, running completely outside the orbit of usual checks & accreditation to which ALL path labs in the NHS are subject. No one is...
@ukiswitheu ...checking their methods or results. They’ve never subjected this testing system to independent 3rd party assessment (like lateral flow tests, rigorously evaluated by Porton Down before being used). Govt admitted it does not know the operational false positive rate for PCR...
@ukiswitheu ...mass testing. That’s like driving a petrol tanker at speed without an MOT. And the driver isn’t HGV trained. It might be fine. That’s Govt’s assertion. But it’s never been checked. Non scientists have often criticised me, saying the oFPR can’t possibly be large enough to...
@ukiswitheu ...make that much of a difference.
I say “Yes, it can”. We need to know what is the false diagnosis rate of the PCR mass testing system, because it’s the DOMINANT dataset driving national policy in every way. And there have been examples in the past, notably when using PCR,
@ukiswitheu https://t.co/PxH4XNHowG
@ukiswitheu I ask you to acknowledge that PCR mass testing has failed in the past. In the famous New Hampshire episode, there were hundreds of apparent cases of whooping cough, with ‘confirmed cases’ coming from PCR testing. But not a single patient was found, by culture, to actually have...
@ukiswitheu ...the infectious agent on board. It was a PCR false positive pseudo epidemic. Now, I do believe there really are some cases of SARS-COV-2 infection & covid19 deaths, just FAR fewer than Govt says, because the PCR mass testing system is untrustworthy & is generation an unknown...
@ukiswitheu ...number of FPs. For goodness sake: it’s the work of a day to prove me wrong. I’d need independent 3rd party evaluations now to convince me. So send in the independent scientists, perhaps from Porton Down, and oversee determination of the oFPR. It’s quick, it’s cheap & would...
@ukiswitheu .. raise confidence in the dataset Govt is using to lock us down. Or it would show they’ve been driving an HGV without a MOT for months, and we’re that close to rolling over in a ball of flames.
Do the checks now, while there is still a country to salvage.
Why is Govt so...
@ukiswitheu ...resistant to doing this quick, cheap & ROUTINE evaluation of what is a glorified medical diagnostic test? Every other such test in use in the NHS has this certification. Not this, the PCR mass testing system, THE MOST IMPORTANT test we’ve ever done in U.K. history.
Why are...
@ukiswitheu ...we in this ridiculous position, where people like me, Dr Clare Craig, Dr Jonathan Engler, Joel Smalley, not one of whom has an agenda other than trying to find out why our PCR mass testing system is generating results completely at variance with every other dataset which...
@ukiswitheu ...bears on the incidence of acute respiratory illness in U.K.? If you look at Smalley’s latest ‘Questions for U.K. Govt’ presentation, which draws only on public data, shows a completely different picture to the one you see on the BBC?
Why are we reduced to writing legal...
@ukiswitheu ...letters to Matt Hancock, trying to get answers to simple, routine questions of fact?
https://t.co/i1QhuYZ3M8
Do you think he’ll reply?
Don’t YOU want the truth, too?

More from Yardley Yeadon

Yardley Yeadon
Yardley Yeadon
@MichaelYeadon3
Postcard From Luxembourg: normality is restored prior to vaccination.
I’ve repeatedly said that “test, test, test” is madness, if the tests are unregulated. Why?
‘Because pandemic’, NO PCR mass testing has a declared operational false positive rate.

So we don’t know the oFPR of PCR mass testing in U.K. This is conducted in a small number of private labs, set up at pace in summer, anticipating a ‘2nd wave’ (itself a dubious prediction from the Imperial team who’ve been wrong every time before). You’d assume these “Lighthouse

...Labs are surely regulated, inspected, accredited etc. They’re doing the most impactful medical diagnostic testing which has ever happened in history. But no. None of these are true. ‘Because pandemic’. Now, I don’t know the oFPR either. But we’re paying for it. It is NOT ZERO.

However, the authorities take every positive result as a “confirmed case” (though there’s nothing confirmed). There is no open protocol you can examine & debate. None of the results are available for understanding, thinking & interpretation. Wouldn’t it be important to learn...

...how the distribution of cycle threshold for positives varies through a run of tens of thousands of samples? Or through time? Or across geography? There is no routine evaluation of the characteristics of the test, even though we know the oFPR of complex systems is subject to...
SOCIETY
Yardley Yeadon
Yardley Yeadon
@MichaelYeadon3
@DesmondSwayne Sir Desmond is right. SAGE makes mathematical predictions based on flawed models.
I chose to stick my neck out almost 4mo ago here:
https://t.co/b0rT5Lq9HI
I experienced much anxiety doing this, aware that, if I was badly wrong here, I would be destroyed as a contributor.

That said, I thought the immunology so clear that I made three, specific & testable predictions which should apply if I was right.
Please examine them, on the right, under the pie chart:


In particular, I predicted that the epidemic would not reignite in London. Obviously, we have many “cases” but I urge people to disregard these & instead to look at excess deaths, on the principle that a severe (occasionally lethal) respiratory virus would show itself this way.

Here is a chart showing the trend of deaths in London alone over recent years. A prominent peak of deaths is evident as the virus swept through in spring. Also visible the August heatwave. But there are no excess deaths now.
I submit this is a striking example of herd immunity.


I’m still waiting for SAGE or indeed anyone to provide an alternative explanation for the sharp nature of the spring excess deaths peak which doesn’t involve herd immunity or otherwise removing from the pool those vulnerable to lethal outcomes (same result). Given this sharp...
MATHS
Advertisement
Yardley Yeadon
Yardley Yeadon
@MichaelYeadon3
@scottorandojin What if the false diagnosis rate was 90%?
Don’t misunderstand me. I’m a thorough believer in the existence of this virus.

To exemplify: the NHS is under severe winter pressure. Many staff are unavailable, largely due to forced isolation from testing. Also, I’m told the adaptations to the conditions make normal work almost impossible. Trying to keep apart patients in different categories must be...

...incredibly stressful. I doubt I could ever have coped. Add to this the real stream of sick people & it’s a complete nightmare. My sympathies won’t be accepted but I offer them anyway. As to “the deaths”, do you mean the reported count of “covid19 deaths”? Everyone is doing...

...their very best. But as to that count: it’s nothing to do with clinical judgement. A covid19 death is a death from any cause within 28d of a positive test. So once a person is labelled by a positive test, if they then die, they’re a covid19 death. Back to my substantive...

...question: how reliable is that labelling? It’s not a clinical diagnosis. We’re not used to this idea. Never before in medical history has someone had a disease (let alone cause of death) been defined by the result of a single year alone. Yet that’s where we are. I think that..
HEALTH
Yardley Yeadon
Yardley Yeadon
@MichaelYeadon3
I urge all followers who have read my criticisms of PCR mass testing in U.K. to carefully read Mr Fordham’s carefully worded letter. Note that the innovation minister in the Lords, Lord Bethel, already admitted that the PCR system doesn’t have the equivalent of an MOT. https://t.co/zXzeDMKCBb


Without this information it’s impossible to interpret any result. If the oFPR is 4%, for example, and if the true prevalence is 0.3% (it’s probably less), then for every 10,000 tests, 400 positives would be false & 30 positives would be genuine. So 93% of positives are false.

As Mr Fordham points out, almost all policies pivot on PCR mass testing. Hancock previously admitted on talkRADIO to Julia Hartley-Brewer in late summer that the FPR was “just under 1%”. That was a flat lie (possibly inadvertent but he’s never corrected the record). The reason...

...we are sure Hancock told a lie is that they have never known the FPR. Those including Hancock who believe that the oFPR can be estimated by inspection of the lowest positivity ever recorded, while logical, is completely wrong. Changes in personnel, throughout, testing...

...architecture & the like can radically alter the oFPR. Since Hancock’s remark in late summer, PCR mass testing has moved into the Lighthouse Labs & this creates a new & urgent need to continually assess oFPR. I’ve good reason to believe it’s now VERY much higher now that the...
SOCIETY
Yardley Yeadon
Yardley Yeadon
@MichaelYeadon3
In a number of Sunday papers:
Scientific advisers said it was “hard to see” when the restrictions would end as new variants continued to emerge, delivering a potentially devastating blow to the travel industry. The prime minister said that after progress with vaccinations...

...”what we don’t want to see is all that work undone by the arrival of a new variant that is vaccine-busting”.
The idea is planted in people’s mind that this virus is mutating in such a way as to evade prior immunity. This is completely unfounded, certainly as regards immunity..

...gained naturally, after repelling the virus (which well around 99.9% of the population do, fewer, obviously in the very elderly & already ill, more in those younger & well). It’s important to appreciate that upon infection, the human immune system cuts up an infectious...

...agent into short pieces. Each of these short pieces of protein are presented to other cells in the immune system, like an identity parade. Our cells have a truly astonishing range of abilities to recognise different protein structures, and there will be some which recognise...

...each of the pieces of the invader. The cells which recognise a piece are instructed to multiply selectively so that, after a few days to a couple of weeks, our bodies contain large numbers of virus piece specific cells. These have a range of functions. Some make antibodies...
SCIENCE

More from For later read

Flt Lt Anoop Verma (Retd.)
Flt Lt Anoop Verma (Re...
@FltLtAnoopVerma
6th SUNDAY SPECIAL #ShoutOut

Hard Core Right Wingers

Step 1-Retweet ALL Lists

Step 2-Follow ALL 289 Handles in ALL 17 Lists

Step 3-Honestly FOLLOW BACK the ONEs who follow u

Earlier Lists welcome for Multiplying

सब जुड़ जाओ, एक हो जाओ

RW को फ़ौलाद💪बना दो

#HinduEcosystem

List 1

@FltLtAnoopVerma
@mickeyanoop
@Bharatiyasatyam
@ModIfiedAksHIT
@AshishMakhijani
@AbePappi
@Neh_hope_faith
@VenkateshBung
@IndianSarthak01
@iMuditJain
@ShravanBJYM
@DrxPragya
@isinghDeepanshu
@suyashdeep
@SuyashJ09
@TusharKant_Naik
@arunkdimpu
@Coachketang

#HinduEcosystem

List 2

@thisissAnjaliG
@Naiktanmay111
@NikhilChelsea12
@IvaSaina
@neil_sane
@aarti162004
@AppamWidUndhiyu
@The_NitinD
@Nitin_vn46
@NikhilBhamre8
@C_JackMH26
@SimzAU
@Impregnable007
@Manika_0315
@BhatiaCrish
@LibtardsKaDoc
@Horse_stable13
@oldschoolmonk1
@Anu_2208
#HinduEcosystem

List 3

@Aartitva
@TraderChirag
@ibonthewayindia
@RubishRaja
@NidarAryan
@doubtfulLucifer
@pandey_kill_bil
@PrathamShashank
@SanataniMarwadi
@DubeyYash1911
@bayonetwarrior
@satyamev21
@parasadukia
@Sanghi_wrath
@hritwik_paul
@just_bhakt
@ss_aarthi
@JRamlingam

#HinduEcosystem

List 4

@UshaNirmala
@Ajusan123
@Nayak1812
@Ayush_Shah_25
@shakti050
@kunaljain_19
@HashtagAviral
@abhi_rocks1004
@sanghini_
@GouriBhide
@KhamanDhokIa
@Shreyas54125712
@Shreya1176
@shubham_ag7
@proudsanghii
@sanghialien
@_Sanghi_Saffron
@saffronpride_
@BHARTIYFOJI
#HinduEcosystem
FOR LATER READ
Abir Ballan \U0001f60a
Abir Ballan 😊
@abirballan
The ten points of the Nuremberg Code
1) The voluntary consent of the human subject is absolutely essential.

2) The experiment should be such as to yield fruitful results for the good of society, unprocurable by other methods or means of study, and not random and unnecessary in nature. 2/n

3) The experiment should be so designed and based on the results of animal experimentation and a knowledge of the natural history of the disease or other problem under study that the anticipated results will justify the performance of the experiment. 3/n

4) The experiment should be so conducted as to avoid all unnecessary physical and mental suffering and injury. 4/n

5) No experiment should be conducted where there is an a priori reason to believe that death or disabling injury will occur; except, perhaps, in those experiments where the experimental physicians also serve as subjects. 5/n
FOR LATER READ
Advertisement
Safe Schools Alliance
Safe Schools Alliance
@SafeSchools_UK
We are belatedly entering the hearing.

Ian Wise is setting out arguments.

#StopStonewall

Ian Wise:

Transgenderism is very controversial territory. ‘Perceived by the victim’ very controversial.

References the Miller case. Complaint could be made by third party.

#StopStonewall

Ian Wise:

A comment that is ‘perceived’ to be transphobic.

In the Miller case this led to police action which was found to be unlawful.

#StopStonewall

Ian Wise:

My client is concerned that a boy may enter the girls toilets.

On page 336, Activity 1c we see the toilet activity.

My client has a genuine concern.

She has sufficient interest in the application.

#StopStonewall
FOR LATER READ , LEGAL
Chris Jones
Chris Jones
@EnswellJones
Back when I went to Bishop’s University, I managed the student radio station, CJMQ. When I started, it was kind of a pirate station. We had an illegal antenna on a roof, and a couple of residences could get us through the radiators somehow. Nowhere to go but up.

Happily, it was 1993. Pump Up the Volume made it cool to be a DJ. Grunge and indie were huge. We went from, like, 12 DJs to 100 and started acting like a real radio station. God, it was awesome. It was like we were on a quest. It felt like a real crusade.

Eventually we decided to try to get an FM licence. This was no easy feat. The bureaucracy was maddening. It cost a lot. We needed to find a proper tower. Long story short, after two years of solid effort, everything came together: CJMQ was awarded 88.9 on your FM dial.

We were going to launch one blissful night in 1995. I planned a massive party and woke up the morning of, not quite believing we’d finally made it. I went to say good morning to my roommate, David, and… Not a single sound came out of my mouth. Not even a whisper.

I had completely and utterly lost my voice. OH GOD NO. I raced to the pharmacy and scribbled a note to the pharmacist: “I’ve lost my voice, and I really need my voice.” She nodded and retrieved two suppositories. They were each the size of large-caliber artillery shells.
FOR LATER READ
David Roberts
David Roberts
@drvolts
It's a slow, snowy afternoon. How about a 🧵 on "rationalists" & "rationalism"? I want to talk about what real rationalism might look like & what people devoted to rationalism might actually behave like--and how that differs from what you often see from self-styled rationalists.

Caveat up front: this is not about Slate Star Codex, which I haven't read regularly enough to have an opinion on, or about the recent controversy between SSC & the NYT. I'm more interested in the *idea* of rationalism (vs. the practice).

The core premise of rationalism, as I understand it, is simply that humans' cognitive machinery was not designed by evolution to find truth, but rather to advance the interests & welfare of the collective -- a Venn overlap, but not the same thing. Therefore ...

... reasoning well, both individually & as groups, requires special effort. It requires consciously trying to set aside the parochialism, biases, & other distortions that typically characterize our thinking -- resisting, to some extent, the dynamics of group membership/welfare.

That's all fine. I agree entirely that we should make special effort to reason well & to guard against the typical failures of reasoning to which we humans are prone. I believe it's the best (maybe only) way forward as a species. So far so good.
FOR LATER READ

You May Also Like

Jaya_Upadhyaya
Jaya_Upadhyaya
@Jayalko1
SRI VARAHA NARSIMHA, SIMHACHALAM, VIZAG (AP)
#bharatmandir

One of the 32 Narsimha Kshetram of Andhra. It has a unique form of Narsimha, appearing like a shivlingam

It is said that Narsimha’s fierce nature is soothed by worshipping him with Varaha, considered a peaceful deity


The shrine is believed to have been constructed by Prahlada. With time, it crumbled.
In Treta yuga, King Pururava was passing from here in his vimana. The vimana was attracted to this place by a mystic power.
When the place was unearthed, the deity was found.
@GunduHuDuGa


Pururava’s wife, Urvashi, had a dream that the deity should remain covered in sandalwood paste for the whole year except on Akshaya Tritiya.
This practice has continued till date.
The mukhya mandap here, has a pillar kappam stambham believed to possess curative powers.


Chandanotsava/ Chandan Yatra is the most important festival celebrated on Akshaya Tritiya. The sandalwood paste is removed from the moolavar deity and nijarupa darshan (original form of deity) for twelve hours of the day are done by devotees.
ALL
Noah Smith
Noah Smith
@Noahpinion
1/Politics thread time.

To me, the most important aspect of the 2018 midterms wasn't even about partisan control, but about democracy and voting rights. That's the real battle.

2/The good news: It's now an issue that everyone's talking about, and that everyone cares about.

3/More good news: Florida's proposition to give felons voting rights won. But it didn't just win - it won with substantial support from Republican voters.

That suggests there is still SOME grassroots support for democracy that transcends

4/Yet more good news: Michigan made it easier to vote. Again, by plebiscite, showing broad support for voting rights as an

5/OK, now the bad news.

We seem to have accepted electoral dysfunction in Florida as a permanent thing. The 2000 election has never really
POLITICS
Advertisement
Jaya_Upadhyaya
Jaya_Upadhyaya
@Jayalko1
KANAKA DURGAMMA, VIJAYWADA (AP)
#bharatmandir

Ma Kanakadurgeswari is the supreme Goddess of Andhra Pradesh, seated atop the Indrakilaparvatha at Vijayawada.
This area is called Bezawada as Shiva made a bejjam (hole) in the rocks so that Krishna river could flow freely.


Once, a Rishi Indra Keela prayed to Devi and asked her to reside on his head forever. Devi told him to wait in the form of a mountain in the holy plains of River Krishna.
Later, when Devi killed all demons, she settled on Keeladri as Mahishasura Mardini and fulfilled his wish.


In this place, Arjuna performed penance and fought with Shiva, who had appeared in the guise of Kiratha to win Pasupathastra, the most powerful weapon. So this place is also called phalguna theertha and Vijaywada on account of Arjun’s victory.


Adi Sankaracharya visited this shrine and worshipped the Devi. He installed SRICHAKRAM at the feet of Sri Kanaka Durga.

Adjacent to the Kanakadurga shrine is the shrine of the divine consort-Sri Malleswara Swamy on the Indrakeeladri.
ALL
\U0001d40d\U0001d41e\U0001d421\U0001d41a \U0001f1ee\U0001f1f3
𝐍𝐞𝐡𝐚 🇮🇳...
@Neh_hope_faith
THREAD: What is Golden Crescent and Golden Triangle and how it impacts India?

Golden Crescent region of South Asia - comprises of Afghanistan, Iran, and Pakistan - which is a principal global site for opium production and distribution.


Golden Triangle is the area where the borders of Thailand, Laos and Myanmar meet at the confluence of the Ruak and Mekong rivers. The Golden Triangle is called so because of the triangular shape formed by the locations of New Delhi, Agra and Rajasthan on a map.


India is wedged bw world’s 2 largest areas of illicit opium production, Golden Crescent & Golden Triangle, that has made Indian borders vulnerable to drug trafficking. It flows from 2 fronts, NW & NE, that possesses dual concern - violation of border & threat to national security

- Golden Crescent is world’s leading opium and cannabis producing region since 1983.

- Its proximity to Indo-Pak border has worsened the trafficking of hashish and heroin into Indian soil

- Trafficking happens through the border states of J&K, Punjab, Rajasthan and Gujarat.


- Golden Triangle is leading opium producing region of the South-east Asia, also an ancient narcotics supply route to North America & Europe.

- Myanmar-Northeast nexus is recognized by NCB as the root of heroin & chemical drugs

- Myanmar produces 80% of heroin produced in world
ALL
Noah Smith
Noah Smith
@Noahpinion
1/OK, I should really write another thread about university-centric regional development, because I think people often make some (very understandable) mistakes when thinking about this issue.

2/The biggest myth, I think, is that universities help regions by educating locals as undergraduates.

Skeptics of universities say: "But most of the people who graduate end up leaving."

3/In fact, most of what a university does for a regional economy is NOT about educating local kids.

Educating local kids is good for the nation, but doesn't help a region much.

The way a university helps a region is through

4/Undergraduates usually leave town after graduation.

But university RESEARCH pulls in OTHER smart people from other regions, and they stay there.

Here's a paper showing that this is the main way universities increase a region's human capital:

5/Research also pulls in business investment.

Companies want to partner with university labs, so they can commercialize the technologies the labs produce. So they invest in the labs, and sometimes they even put their offices in the town.
SOCIETY