Reading my own old writing from 10+ years ago is rarely pleasant. It’s not that the ideas and techniques are worse/embarrassing by current tastes (though they often are), but that they have a brash energy I can’t vibe with anymore even where I can still stand by the content.
2014-20: Angry-anxious energy. Everybody lost the plot. Winners and losers alike. Great Weirding.
2021 - : Mellow sadder-and-wiser energy on macro, brrr energy on micro.

SV pre-2015 was pretty unique. It was a huge ball of solutionism fusion energy.
Problemist energy sources = cultural command economy that can fail by producing overwrought incestuous taste-swamp slime
IMO It is easier to do good work in the former
More from Venkatesh Rao
I’m guessing these responses really reflect people’s weighted averages (age*current average effort fraction) though I kept it simple and asked for just averages.
I suspect a healthy weighted average should be ~ (age-20)/2. So a 30 year old should be at 5, a 40 year old at 10, a 50 year old at 15 etc.
Standard deviation should be ~average/3 maybe, so distribution spreads as you age and accumulate projects and get better at them.
Other things being equal, people get good at starting in their 20s, at follow through in 30s, at finishing in 40s.
No point learning food follow through until you’ve found a few good starts to bet on. No point getting good at finishing until a few projects have aged gracefully.
I’m in the 7+ range myself. Probably 8-9. Slightly less than healthy for my age.
I suspect most self-judgments on being good starters/follow-through-ers/finishers are really flawed because of the non-ergodicity of project management skill learning. You can’t learn good practices for the 3 phases in an arbitrary order. On,y one order actually works.
Poll: where is the temporal center of gravity of all your live projects based on average age of start-dates?
— Venkatesh Rao (@vgr) January 17, 2021
I suspect a healthy weighted average should be ~ (age-20)/2. So a 30 year old should be at 5, a 40 year old at 10, a 50 year old at 15 etc.
Standard deviation should be ~average/3 maybe, so distribution spreads as you age and accumulate projects and get better at them.
Other things being equal, people get good at starting in their 20s, at follow through in 30s, at finishing in 40s.
No point learning food follow through until you’ve found a few good starts to bet on. No point getting good at finishing until a few projects have aged gracefully.
I’m in the 7+ range myself. Probably 8-9. Slightly less than healthy for my age.
I suspect most self-judgments on being good starters/follow-through-ers/finishers are really flawed because of the non-ergodicity of project management skill learning. You can’t learn good practices for the 3 phases in an arbitrary order. On,y one order actually works.
Both this thread and the outraged response threads are... something.
This is why I never wanted kids. Way too much responsibility for another human’s development. Depending on the child, this might either be the day they discovered who they were or the day that traumatized them into a lifelong fuckup. Either way I don’t want to direct the show.
As far as the can opener goes, it wouldn’t even occur to me to try and turn it into a teachable moment. That sounds vaguely quixotic. I’d just show them how immediately. I think my default is to try and instruct clearly but not demonstrate unless the person is truly disoriented.
I think there’s basically a right answer here: show the kid. If the kid has the aptitude they’ll enjoy the mechanism so much they’ll develop the figure-it-out skill with other devices. If not, it’s a training data point that will build remedial levels of intuition more slowly.
I think perseverance is both misframed and over-rated as a virtue. Misframed as in: everybody has potential for it in some areas and lacks it in others. Aptitude is those areas where perseverance comes easily to you. Meta-skill of knowing where/why you persist is more important.
So, yesterday my daughter (9) was hungry and I was doing a jigsaw puzzle so I said over my shoulder \u201cmake some baked beans.\u201d She said, \u201cHow?\u201d like all kids do when they want YOU to do it, so I said, \u201cOpen a can and put it in pot.\u201d She brought me the can and said \u201cOpen it how?\u201d
— john roderick (@johnroderick) January 2, 2021
This is why I never wanted kids. Way too much responsibility for another human’s development. Depending on the child, this might either be the day they discovered who they were or the day that traumatized them into a lifelong fuckup. Either way I don’t want to direct the show.
As far as the can opener goes, it wouldn’t even occur to me to try and turn it into a teachable moment. That sounds vaguely quixotic. I’d just show them how immediately. I think my default is to try and instruct clearly but not demonstrate unless the person is truly disoriented.
I think there’s basically a right answer here: show the kid. If the kid has the aptitude they’ll enjoy the mechanism so much they’ll develop the figure-it-out skill with other devices. If not, it’s a training data point that will build remedial levels of intuition more slowly.
I think perseverance is both misframed and over-rated as a virtue. Misframed as in: everybody has potential for it in some areas and lacks it in others. Aptitude is those areas where perseverance comes easily to you. Meta-skill of knowing where/why you persist is more important.
More from For later read
1. A little DRASTIC Project you may be able to help with?
We want to collate all references to DRASTIC in academic papers & media articles
Here are a few:
medium article by @emmecola
thorough report by @netpoette
@ColinDavdButler 's Paper
Please add any links to this thread. Tks!
2. More References
Papers by @MonaRahalkar and @BahulikarRahul
Papers by @Rossana38510044 and @ydeigin
Medium articles & papers by
@gdemaneuf & @Rdemaistre
Papers by @flavinkins (Daoyu Zhang)
Papers by "Anon" & "interneperson"
French News - le Monde
Can anyone remember any more?
3. More References
Papers & Blog Posts by @Harvard2H (Sirotkin & Sirotkin)
260 Questions for WHO collated by @billybostickson
If you find mentions of our individual names or "DRASTIC" in Papers or News, please forward here to this thread as links or screenshots.
Histoire du COVID-19 – chapitre 6 - Partie 2 : Pourquoi le séquençage complet du virus RaTG13 n'a pas été communiqué par Shi Zheng Li avant février 2020 ? https://t.co/MYEZZSAzaE
SARS-CoV-2: lab-origin hypothesis gains traction
BY ANNETTE GARTLAND ON OCTOBER 12, 2020
https://t.co/sPs1y8Herg
We want to collate all references to DRASTIC in academic papers & media articles
Here are a few:
medium article by @emmecola
thorough report by @netpoette
@ColinDavdButler 's Paper
Please add any links to this thread. Tks!

2. More References
Papers by @MonaRahalkar and @BahulikarRahul
Papers by @Rossana38510044 and @ydeigin
Medium articles & papers by
@gdemaneuf & @Rdemaistre
Papers by @flavinkins (Daoyu Zhang)
Papers by "Anon" & "interneperson"
French News - le Monde
Can anyone remember any more?
3. More References
Papers & Blog Posts by @Harvard2H (Sirotkin & Sirotkin)
260 Questions for WHO collated by @billybostickson
If you find mentions of our individual names or "DRASTIC" in Papers or News, please forward here to this thread as links or screenshots.
Histoire du COVID-19 – chapitre 6 - Partie 2 : Pourquoi le séquençage complet du virus RaTG13 n'a pas été communiqué par Shi Zheng Li avant février 2020 ? https://t.co/MYEZZSAzaE

SARS-CoV-2: lab-origin hypothesis gains traction
BY ANNETTE GARTLAND ON OCTOBER 12, 2020
https://t.co/sPs1y8Herg
