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Pasquale "Pat" Scopelliti
@ThyConsigliori 5 years, 10 months ago 1060 views

23 December 2020 #MAGAanalysis #PenceCard

If By Any Other Means...

First a nod to my new friend, @HeloProcurement, Don The Pleb. You'll enjoy the show we did last night, and it's meditating on our conversation that led to today's

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Pasquale "Pat" Scopell...
@ThyConsigliori

5 January #MAGAanalysis #Overturn

What Will Pence Do Tomorrow?

Both @annvandersteel and @KateScopelliti put forward this story, last night. It is an important story we must consider

Pasquale "Pat" Scopell...
@ThyConsigliori

21 December 2020 #MAGAanalysis #HeMightBeRight

A Shocking Theory - He Might Be Right

Today, we'll finish General Mac's interview with Sarah Westall, here at Twitter: @westall_sarahw. I've made it up to 26:51 in notations and responses so far.

2) As a student of how studying works, I was deeply surprised by yesterday's work. The interview up on one screen, my thread up on the other, I was able to start and stop comfortably. I could look up sources by pausing the interview. I enjoyed it. That shocks me.

3) Mind, I'm NOT saying I did a good job. It was the first time I've ever done that sort of commentary and real time research simultaneously. It's all kind of weird to me. You know, old dogs, new tricks, not easy, but so much fun!

4) From then till now, however, I've noticed an explosion of confusion in our nation over what's actually happening. We're in a fantastically sensitive moment in our history. Who's voice do we listen to, now? This is a tremendous question. Who's voice?

5) Most people don't care as much about theory as I do. I am a theoretician. Some fighting part of me knew, back in 2016, that almost no one was working off a very specific theoretical base. Maybe Trump was right. Allow me to shout:

MAYBE TRUMP WAS RIGHT

That is a theory.

Pasquale "Pat" Scopell...
@ThyConsigliori

25 December 2020 #MAGAanalysis Christmas Edition

The Great Reawakening - A Renewed Dream Of America

@GenFlynn tells me the JOY of the MAGA Movement has returned. Our Xmas gift is A Renewed Dream For America. In case you didn't know, it's his birthday too, he's a Christmas baby!

Pasquale "Pat" Scopell...
@ThyConsigliori

16 January 2021 #MAGAanalysis #Overturn

The Man Who Met Himself

First, I have to again thank @BernadetteMay for the delightful and foretelling new banner photo I stole from her. It is truly profound and hopefully prophetic.

Pasquale "Pat" Scopell...
@ThyConsigliori

13 January 2020 #MAGAanalysis #Overturn

The Will To Honor Vs The Will To Surrender

@KateScopelliti keeps me honest, and strong. I am not automatically, not even naturally either. As we draw nearer the 20th, I find my will flags, my strength weakens. Not so with Kate.

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Vigilant AFA
@AfaVigilant

One fascist to watch in 2021 is Joseph Charles "Oakman" Golinske of SE MI. He's been a Proud Boy for a couple years, but took a break recently from the group and promotes himself through the "Oak Nation" channel on Telegram.

Most people may be familiar with him as the tall guy in the Proud Boys bridge shot, from their August 17, 2019 attack on Portland, which featured an American Guard bus trying (and failing) to bludgeon antifascists with hammers.

He was also with his g/f at the time (Dominique Tota, left of Tarrio), and that's definitely a twitter account folks will want to block/report because he posts on it.

He's been plenty active at the pro-Covid/anti-mask/ReOpen protests in Lansing MI, seen here with Jerry Wayne and an effigy of Gretchen Whitmer, who his militia friends tried to kidnap and publicly execute.

Outside of the Proud Boys, his solo "career" with Oak Nation features the same misogyny, classism and gateway to far-right domestic terrorism the Proud Boys themselves feature. Here's him peddling oxychlorinque and bragging about harassing service workers.

Sahil Bloom
@SahilBloom

Survivorship Bias 101

History is written by the victors. But if we exclusively focus on these successes, we allow survivorship bias to distort our understanding of the world.

But what is "survivorship bias" and how does it work?

Here's Survivorship Bias 101!

👇👇👇

1/ First, a few definitions.

Survivorship bias is the logical error of concentrating on survivors (successes) and ignoring casualties (failures).

When we do so, we miss the true "base rates" of survival (the actual probability of success) and arrive at flawed conclusions.

2/ When we completely ignore failures, we lose our ability to correctly identify the differences between successes and failures.

Put simply, exclusively focusing on successes may actually inhibit our ability to identify (and replicate) the actions that led to such success.

3/ Cicero wrote on the topic over 2,000 years ago.

An atheist named Diagoras is shown portraits of people who prayed and were saved from death at sea as proof of God's existence.

Diagoras replies, "I see those who were saved, but where are those painted who were shipwrecked?"

4/ Cicero cuts right to the point - we cannot conclude that prayer led to being saved from the sea if we ignore those who prayed and then drowned.

Survivorship bias can lead to a deeply-flawed understanding of cause-and-effect relationships.

Let's look at some examples.

Daniel Finn
@DanFinn95

Some familiar figures are pushing the absurd and defamatory claim that Ken Loach supports Holocaust denial. The story of this bogus talking-point, which relies upon multiple layers of falsehood and guilt-by-association, makes for a revealing case-study. 1/

It dates back to the 2017 Labour conference. In a NYT op-ed, Howard Jacobson claimed that “a motion to question the truth of the Holocaust was proposed” from the conference floor—a crude fabrication, which the NYT sanctioned in its pages. 2/

If you follow the link supplied by Jacobson or his editors, you’ll see that he was wrong on 3 counts: it wasn’t a motion, it wasn’t at the conference, and it wasn’t in favour of Holocaust denial. Quite the hat-trick! 3/

At a fringe meeting, granted no official status by Labour, an Israeli-Jewish speaker, Miko Peled, had said that he didn’t think Holocaust denial should be a criminal offense (which it is in some European countries). 4/

This is a perfectly reasonable position to hold—that opinions, no matter how wrong-headed or morally objectionable, should not be a matter for the criminal law—and of course it does not mean that Peled himself questions the truth of the Holocaust. 5/

Jo Luehmann
@JoLuehmann

Christianity has been a weapon used by systems of oppression to call that which is harmful and abusive; good and God’s will. It has been a weapon to normalize hegemonic power, and keep people from questioning it or challenging it because “it comes from God.”

1/

Gender “norms,” harmful ideas about sexuality, social hierarchy, the construct of race, notions of nuclear family, toxic ideologies of work, bodies, finances, government, relationships, parenting, or criminal justice; are all rooted in Christianity and...

2/

backed up by verses of the Christian Bible taken out of context, to assert that this isn’t just normal, but what God desires. And who dares challenge God?

Christianity has allowed for people w/power to use the idea of god, and *his* “word,” to pass their ideas as God ideas.
3/

This is one of the reasons why people react so violently when we say the Bible is not the word of God, they can’t accept that everything they’ve been given as normal, good, ideal, God’s will... may just not be so.

4/

Their nervous systems tells them it is better to maintain the certainty of what is in their hands; even though it causes harm; than to give into the uncertainty of imagining a different world where equity is possible.

And then their ego gets involved, and admitting they’ve

5/

Ooana Trien
@ooana

I shared this on my FB page and asked, can ya really blame him?

I was half kidding. I also assumed someone would think of what I did pretty quickly and waiting for the comment to mention what I assumed was obvious.

The timing. I was sure someone else had thought of it.

Columbia professor: I do heroin regularly for 'work-life balance' https://t.co/6aq9cnGfPG pic.twitter.com/3OmmaHKORx
— New York Post (@nypost) February 19, 2021

But no one did. 20+ comments in people discussed the morality or bad sense or libertarian perspectives. Someone even said I’m thinking about doing that. No one said what I thought was obvious. Have you thought of it? Is it obvious to you?

Here’s a clue...recognize it?

How about this?

The author discusses it with Mike Wallace in 1958

23 December 2020 #MAGAanalysis #PenceCard If By Any Other Means...First a nod to my new friend, @HeloProcurement, Don The Pleb. You'll enjoy the show we did last night, and it's meditating on our conversation that led to today's

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23 December 2020 #MAGAanalysis #PenceCard

If By Any Other Means...

First a nod to my new friend, @HeloProcurement, Don The Pleb. You'll enjoy the show we did last night, and it's meditating on our conversation that led to today's