X : Do you think cloud will decentralise?
Me : Already has - started with regions and AZs and is now rapidly expanding into outpost, greengrass, EKS anwhere.
X : No, I mean many providers.
Me : There are two forms of decentralisation - provision and control (i.e. authorities) ...

... what is happening is decentralisation of provision (i.e. cloud everywhere, at the edge) but under centralised authorities (Amazon, Alibaba, MSFT, Google etc).
X : What about decentralisation of control?
Me : Many companies working to a common standard ...
... that was the dream of OpenStack but they blew that on day one creating a collective prisoner dilemma. They are trying to recorrect this with K8s but the cloud has moved on, higher up the stack ...
... so, the idea of a marketplace of many different companies each having authority is ... wishful thinking by past vendors and clients they've hoodwinked. Maybe in 15-20 years we will get another go ... open source is a long game ...
... more likely is many points of provision i.e. companies offering EKS anywhere on a utility basis but under centralised authority e.g. AWS.

So, yes, the cloud is going to edge, has been for sometime but it'll be AWS / Alibaba / MSFT cloud that is everywhere.
X : Open source as a long game?
Me : When it comes to unseating a commodity, it's not easy. ASF has the long term view and the community players to make this sort of stuff happen. You won't get there with a "quick rush, grab some VC money and profit" approach.
X : I thought you said 10-15 years?
Me : That was back in 2015. A lot of damage has been done to Open Source since then. You can barely move without some new Open Source Foundation dropping on you. A lot of rebuilding is needed - https://t.co/cOLhmywQdE
... it might well be that the Open Source challenge comes from China. There is some good community work happening there, well worth keeping an eye on.
X : Alternatives?
Me : Amazon et al continue their open source approach and it'll all be open sourced anyway. You'll be able to build your entire stack but you'll still use those centralised authorities because whilst it'll be distributed, it'll be "on chip".
X : "On chip"
Me : Yep. EC2 on chip is already happening, in the near future it'll be Lambda on chip.
X : A Lambda chip in your laptop?
Me : I would guess it'll eventually be in your home router, connected via project kuiper and sidewalk to a world wide mesh. You don't get much more distributed than that.
X : An Amazon router for every home with a Lambda chip?
Me : Well, yes ... I'd imagine that some future combination of Echo and Eero would have this covered. But we're not there yet.
X : What about the telcos?
Me : Well, they should have provided a standardised IoT gateway / hub about a decade ago. Not my problem, they created this mess for themselves with all their fighting over traffic shaping and trying to profit from pipes. Tough luck.
X : Tough luck?
Me : Well, for the future generation of executives who take over. The current crop have plenty of time to comfortably retire and claim that "it was all fine when I was in charge" whilst writing a few memoirs on their marvellous leadership etc.
X : Chambers?
Me : Lol. I normally look at a company seven years after the executive has finally left to determine how successful they were. In the case of Cisco, I'll take a look in 2024 and tell you what I think.
X : Seven years?
Me : Yep. Some of my past research indicates that seven years is the right timeframe. Ideally executive compensation (stock, options etc) should vest seven years after they've left. It would certainly give a longer term perspective.
Me : Such an approach would benefit both shareholders and employees. It would also end sweat and acquire games along with a host of other short term measures. The focus would be much more on the legacy created.
X : Does anyone do this?
Me : Not that I'm aware of.
X : But doesn't they create an incentive to leave?
Me : Well, an incentive to leave with a bright future and the right people and plans in place ... yes ... that's the point.
X : Immediate needs?
Me : Loans against future expected earnings. There'll be market contracts for that.
X : So will this happen?
Me : No.
X : Why?
Me : The problem is the shareholders. It's of benefit to long term holders but not to short term holders. The current system suits those looking for that quick return. You'd have to change the market to start thinking about long term.
X : How?
Me : Minimum terms i.e. if you're investing in a company then you'd have to hold the stock for at least a decade. Back to the old ways of long term investing.
X : Will that happen?
Me : Not in my lifetime. Too many financial instruments are built on the short term.
X : And that's bad?
Me : Well, it encourages certain behaviour i.e. when we detect a change is happening (like a shift from product to utility) then we invest in the long term (i.e. the utility) but still invest in the past world as long as it plays sweat and acquire.
X : ?
Me : The old world needs to squeeze assets, purchase equivalent distressed companies, squeeze more and return value until there is nothing left to squeeze in which case it goes over the cliff. We double up by shorting at that point. So ...
... short term return from old players plus chance of shorting plus long term return from utility players. Rinse and repeat.
X : Long term holdings would stop that?
Me : Yep. We'd have to encourage companies to evolve / adapt. Adds more risk to shareholders. Not going to happen.
X : Given modern political and economic history, I’ve learned not to immediately rule out possibilities.
Me : Fair point. Ok, "not going to happen without a fight" ... too many vested interests.

More from Simon Wardley

"Fifty-nine percent of those polled said they believed China will become more powerful than the U.S. within 10 years" - https://t.co/3vN4I1TjwP ... I hate to break it to you but it already is in many areas.

When I published this work (originally from 2015) -
https://t.co/GYOItA3StZ - I did tend to get a lot of pushback from US folk when presenting it.

Six years later, less so.


I expect China to start to tackle inequality this year. It's the Achilles heel of the West. We have no response, nor Governments with the required skill, strategy or practice to respond.

We will ultimately face a more advanced, more wealthy and more equal society ...

... as that example of what "is possible" / "good looks like" shift to the East, we will face a painful shift as we question our own values including our kind of democracy. But in reality, the problem is not with our values but our shockingly poor standards of leadership.

X : Is this because of Trump?
Me : No, this has been going on since the 1990s. There has been no effective counterplay to the long game that Deng Xiaoping started. Just hubris, arrogance and exceptionalism with annual Economist articles on "How China will fall".

More from For later read

Humans inherently like the act of solidarity. We are social beings. We like to huddle up and be together.
They used this against us.
They convinced us that it was an act of solidarity to flatten the curve, to wear a mask for others, to take the vaccines for others,


and to reach #covidzero for others. They convinced us that this was for the greater good of society.
In reality, this couldn't be further away from the truth. They have divided us and broken the core structure of our society. They have dehumanized us with their masks.

They set us against each other into clans on opposite sides of a spectrum. They have turned us into aggressive beings fighting for our survival. Some of us fear harm from the virus, others fear harm from the vaccine, and yet others fear harm from the attack on our civilization.

We are all on a flight or fight mode. We are all operating under the influence of fear. We must collect ourselves and reflect on what has happened over the last year.
How is this for the greater good of society?

They used a tactical warfare strategy against us.
'Divide and conquer'.
We fell for it.
Now we must become aware of it and fight back.
We must reunite. We must find true solidarity to save our world. To free ourselves. To regain our autonomy.
The #worldwildlifeday2021 theme is Forests and Livelihoods: Sustaining People and Planet aligning with UN Sustainable Development Goals 1, 12, 13 and 15. So, what are the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) & how can children begin to learn about them & get involved ?

https://t.co/8ICvHxE9QL is easy & fun to follow for our smallest of people #EYFS. Early childhood is the perfect stage to introduce the core concepts of what it means to be a global citizen. For our reception & KS1 children please take a look at this fabulous free resource

https://t.co/tZx8UIS58Q Storytelling is a powerful communications tool and helps children remember lessons and virtues that they will use in everyday life. The idea is to simplify the lessons of the (SDGs) so young children can relate to – and better understand – the SDGs.

For older children here’s a board game that aims to help teach children around the world about the Sustainable Development Goals in a simple and child-friendly way

This is a lovely free book for children to enjoy flicking through themselves https://t.co/ScMbQCfpjl Elyx, the United Nations’ digital ambassador, uses various expressions and actions to help demonstrate the meaning of each Sustainable Development Goal.
I’ve been frustrated by the tweets I’ve seen of this as a Canadian. Because the facts are being misrepresented.

We’re not under some sort of major persecution. That’s not what this is. A thread. 1/8


This church was fined for breaking health orders in Dec. They continued to break them. So the pastor was arrested and released on conditions of... you guessed it, not breaking health orders. And then they broke the health orders. 2/8

So then he was arrested and told he couldn’t hold church services in person if he was to be released. He refused. He’s still in custody.

Here is my frustration as a Christian in Canada:

1. They were able to gather, with some conditions. They didn’t like those. 3/8

2. He is not actually unable to preach. He is just unable to hold church services because they broke the conditions given by the public health office in Alberta. He says he can’t in good conscience do that, so they are keeping him in jail (because he will break the law). 4/8

3. This is the 1st article of The Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms: “guarantees the rights and freedoms set out in it subject only to such reasonable limits prescribed by law as can be demonstrably justified in a free and democratic society.” 5/8

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My top 10 tweets of the year

A thread 👇

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IMPORTANCE, ADVANTAGES AND CHARACTERISTICS OF BHAGWAT PURAN

It was Ved Vyas who edited the eighteen thousand shlokas of Bhagwat. This book destroys all your sins. It has twelve parts which are like kalpvraksh.

In the first skandh, the importance of Vedvyas


and characters of Pandavas are described by the dialogues between Suutji and Shaunakji. Then there is the story of Parikshit.
Next there is a Brahm Narad dialogue describing the avtaar of Bhagwan. Then the characteristics of Puraan are mentioned.

It also discusses the evolution of universe.(
https://t.co/2aK1AZSC79 )

Next is the portrayal of Vidur and his dialogue with Maitreyji. Then there is a mention of Creation of universe by Brahma and the preachings of Sankhya by Kapil Muni.


In the next section we find the portrayal of Sati, Dhruv, Pruthu, and the story of ancient King, Bahirshi.
In the next section we find the character of King Priyavrat and his sons, different types of loks in this universe, and description of Narak. ( https://t.co/gmDTkLktKS )


In the sixth part we find the portrayal of Ajaamil ( https://t.co/LdVSSNspa2 ), Daksh and the birth of Marudgans( https://t.co/tecNidVckj )

In the seventh section we find the story of Prahlad and the description of Varnashram dharma. This section is based on karma vaasna.