BC FINANCE
Saved by @Mollyycolllinss

1/x Since I promised a few investors outside Sweden/Nordics to look deeper into $CDON, with my negative customer biases aside, here's a short thread;

Let's first go through the negatives

 2/x I really understand the excitement when you put on the "local dominant marketplace"-glasses and start comparing CDON multiples to the likes of $AMZN, $MELI, $SE or whatever. But with boots on the ground I can assure you, that they are *nothing* of the sort. At least yet.
3/x Just looking at GMV/revenue, after >20y in business, an "everything store", CDON doesn't even come near other local niche players like $BHG (8bSEK) or $BOOZT (4bSEK) and other private companies. They are closer to $LYKO in size, who are only selling hair & beauty..
4/x Unfortunately the brand is very much on decline (especially among young ppl) since the website has been mistreated for years and years, so I think they have to work extremely hard on building trust + enhance customer experience to even have a change long term.
5/x Like I wrote yesterday we have a very divided (in a good way) eCommerce market in the Nordics, with lots of amazing niche players with top notch customer experience. To put it in words you understand, we are a more $SHOP like region with independent businesses.
6/x Therefore I can't really see the value that a big marketplace would bring to the table (also why I think $AMZN are too late), since I believe we are too eCom-established for that type of buying. CDON have tried since 2013 when 3P Marketplace was launched.
7/x Let's say that I'm wrong and the "Everything Store" approach might work here, without incentives for neither customers (very bad experience/history) nor sellers (most of the e-retailers have a wonderful biz on their own) I think it will be hard to get the flywheel going.
8/x BUT the pandemic might have flipped the script a little. Some companies NEED to go online fast, but lack the digital presence/relationship w/ customers, so the CDON Third Party solution is probably a good start. I think that might add a fair amount of GMV growth right now.
9/x Sum of negatives;

Brand on decline, needs a fixer upper.

History of slow growth, still no scale to talk about.

Tough competition $AMZN $ZAL + low incentives for merchants (although "why not, it's low cost" is a fair argument).

No environment for Everything Stores imo.
10/x On the positive side I really enjoy listening to their new CEO who seems competent and aggressive around their growth ambitions. The new facelift on the site also helps with customer experience, even though delivery time varies immensely and communication still is very poor.
11/x The shift to a pure 3P business model is of course great (although I can't figure out why it has taken such a long time to transition, since the launch 2013?) for scalability, which Q3 seem to prove with 80% gross margins (~29% total in Q2 I believe) for marketplace revenue.
12/x So even if I have a hard time seeing $CDON anywhere near as dominant as the $MELI's of the world, they will probably still have a place in the region for the forseeable future. So the bull case is dead in my eyes, but the base case might be alive and kicking...
13/x With the new margin profile in the making + recent growth spurt w/ newly added merchants (+100% GMV in Q3, pandemic boosted or not something is going very right) the stock trades at a discount with consideration to margin expansion, despite the recent run-up.
14/x At ~400 SEK valuation is around 10x LTM Gross Profit, with ongoing margin expansion, or 1.25x GMV.

EV/GP comps (LTM)
$MELI 61x (1/3 fintech + insane network effects)
$OZON 40x
$ZAL 7x
$ETSY 26x
$EBAY 5x
$LYKO 7x
$AMZN 11x
$JD 8x
$ALE.WA 40x
$BOOZT 6x
15/x When looking at "peers", as I said, I still see a discount. But with $ETSY (growing faster + great brand + huge scale) and $ALE.WA (very established + lots of optionality) on 3x GMV, I find a 1-1.5x multiple fair today for CDON considering large execution risk.
16/x So at 100-200 SEK I admit it would probably have been a buy for me, but unfortunately my bias towards CDON as a customer made me look the other way. At 400 I really need to see more great numbers to stay interested, and are not willing to bet on it despite (some) discount.
17/x Some ppl who I wrote with about it yesterday and might be interested @pbcinc @LiviamCapital @AlexWhite1812 @GetBenchmarkCo @deucetrade @hungry_cap @tjylha @outofWACC

More from Finance

Investment Books
Investment Books
@InvestmentBook1
Thread Best books recommendation by one of best investor I knew @insharebazaar (Virtually)

He grab many multibagger stocks and His style also unique(1st Seen interview in @TraderHarneet's YT Channel)

He follow Simple process

Young Intelligent Investor who also appeared in ET

1. One Up On Wall Street

2. Rich Dad Poor Dad

Access here : https://t.co/UWOCF732z6


3. The Unusual Billionaires

4. Trading in the Zone

https://t.co/G7mqVPtEM0


5. Market Wizards

6. The Intelligent Investor

https://t.co/yPKBzYyPAl


7. The Five Rules for Successful Stock Investing

8. Reminiscences of a Stock Operator

https://t.co/PiioB3hdHP
FINANCE
10-K Diver
10-K Diver
@10kdiver
1/

Get a cup of coffee.

In this thread, I'll help you work out how much money you need to retire.

2/

The goal is simple.

You want to accumulate a *large* portfolio of assets.

How large?

Well, you should be able to quit your job. And you and your family should be able to live comfortably for decades -- just off of the income generated by this portfolio.

3/

This is the crux of the "FIRE" movement.

FIRE stands for "Financially Independent, Retired Early".

The basic philosophy is: keep your spending needs low. Save a large portion of your income. Invest these savings. With luck, you'll be able to retire early.

4/

FIRE advocates have a rule they love to cite: the 4% rule.

The 4% rule says: your annual expenses in retirement should not exceed 4% of your portfolio.

You can use this rule to calculate how large a portfolio you need to accumulate before you can quit your job and retire.


5/

For example, suppose you and your family need $40K/year to live comfortably in retirement.

Then you need to accumulate a portfolio that's at least $1M.

Another way to say this is: your portfolio should be at least 25 times your annual expenses in retirement.
ALL , FINANCE
Advertisement
10-K Diver
10-K Diver
@10kdiver
1/

Get a cup of coffee.

In this thread, we'll cover *State Quantities* and *Flow Quantities*.

This mental model can help us analyze many different entities -- from complex engineering systems to publicly traded companies.


2/

A "State Quantity" is something that's associated with a *specific point in time*.

For example, the number of followers a Twitter account has is a state quantity. This number can go up and down over time. But at any one *specific* time point, it's fixed.

3/

Similarly, the amount of cash a company has is a state quantity.

This cash balance can also rise and fall over time.

But pick any one *specific* time point -- and the company can only have one *specific* cash balance at that time point.

4/

By contrast, a "Flow Quantity" is something that's associated with a time *interval* rather than a time *point*.

For example, the number of followers gained by a Twitter account is a flow quantity. It's meaningful only when we specify a time interval (eg, the last 30 days).

5/

A simple analogy is that a State Quantity is like a photo -- a snapshot at a particular *point* in time.

But a Flow Quantity is like a video -- a record of events that take place during a particular time *interval*.
SCIENCE , FINANCE
Bartek Kiepuszewski
Bartek Kiepuszewski
@bkiepuszewski
1/ If, after reading https://t.co/IzzATArtZl you are still confused how Alpha Homora and IronBank were hacked, here's how the hack was conceived

2/ Normally when you borrow funds from AH bank, your debtShare and totalDebt increases. Specifically if you want to borrow x tokens, your debt share will be calculated as:

share = x * totalShare / totalDebt

and it is added to totalShare

3/ All these numbers are very big integers (as token precisions are 18 digits) and the calculation is correct, but when totalShare = 1 (think 1 wei) and x < totalDebt, new debt share will be 0 (integer division)

4/ So if you manage to have AH bank with totalShare = 1, and some totalDebt you can repeatedly borrow less than the totalDebt (ideally totalDebt - 1) effectively doubling totalDebt in each iteration. You can do it as many times as you want, while totalShare will remain 1

5/ Eventually Iron Bank that supplies funds to AH will run out of funds, so when amounts get big enough (you are doubling each time), also make sure to replenish it with flash loan
FINANCE
SG
SG
@GhoshSubhag
Way to #Financial freedom

1) Rule of 72 (Double Your Money)
2) Rule of 114 (Triple)
3) Rule of 144 (Quadruple)
4) Rule of 70 (Inflation)
5) 4% Withdrawal Rule
6) 100 - Minus Age Rule
7) 10, 5, 3 Rule
8) 50-30-20 Rule
9) 3X Emergency Rule
10) 40% EMI Rule
11) Life Insurance Rule

1) Rule of 72
No. of yrs required to double your money at a given rate, U just divide 72 by interest rate
Eg, if U want to know how long it will take to double your money at 8% interest, divide 72 by 8 and get 9 yrs

At 6% rate, it will take 12 yrs
At 9% rate, it will take 8 yrs

3) Rule of 144

No. of years required to, quadruple your money at a given rate, U just divide 144 by interest rate.

For eg, if U want to know how long it will take to quadruple your money at 12% interest, divide 144 by 12 and get 12 yrs

At a 6% interest rate, it will take 24yrs

4) Rule of 70

Divide 70 by the current inflation rate to know how fast the value of your investment will get reduced to half its present value.

The inflation rate of 7% will reduce the value of your money to half in 10 years.

5) 4% Rule for Financial Freedom

Corpus Reqd- 25*Annual Expenses

Eg- the annual expense is 500,000 then the corpus required to retire is 1.25 cr.

Put 50% into fixed income & 50% into equity.

Withdraw 4% every yr, i.e.5 lac.

This rule works for 96% of the time in 30 yr period
FINANCE

You May Also Like

ArmaniTalks \U0001f399\U0001f525
ArmaniTalks 🎙🔥...
@ArmaniTalks
Shy people are either overthinking or highly observant of the social setting.

And in many cases it can be both.

'So what do I do?'

You learn the 75/25 law.

'What is that?'

The law of charisma...👇

Let's address the over thinkers first.

Do you have any idea why you overthink?

'Yea. Because others are judging how shy I am.'

Incorrect.

Others are thinking about themselves, not you.

But the fact that you think they are thinking about you, you fuck up the interaction.

Now you stay in your head too much & avoid the present moment.

A major no no in the social world.

Your tendency to think that others are judging you for being shy, coincidentally makes you more shy.

And that's when you start giving off a strange vibration to the social setting.

This is when you begin attracting comments like 'why are you so quiet?'
LIFE
Suhas S. Hardutt
Suhas S. Hardutt
@HarduttSuhas
THE BATTLE OF TALIKOTA and the destruction of Vijaynagar (Hampi)
26 January 1565

A tale of valor, deception and decimation.

A grim reminder that if we fail to protect our heritage, it will eventually crumble under the onslaught of "forces of anarchy".
(Elaborate thread)


This decisive battle was fought between the Vijayanagara empire and the Deccan sultanates resulting in a rout of Vijayanagara and ending the last major medieval era Hindu kingdom in south India.(1)

The seeds of 1565 encounter were sown more than 250 years earlier when the forces of the Delhi Sultanate, during the time of Alauddin Khilji and later Md Bin Tughlaq swept through southern India in an expansion spree.(2)

By middle of the 14th century, facing rebellions, Tughlaq withdrew to Delhi, leaving behind 2 empires, Bahmani, which ruled the Deccan from Kalaburagi, and Vijayanagara, which ruled most south India with its capital at Vijayanagar.(3)

The Raichur Doab, between the Krishna and Tungabhadra rivers, existed as a natural boundary between these two kingdoms, with wars often breaking out over control of this territory.(4)
HISTORY
Advertisement
Daddy Files
Daddy Files
@DaddyFiles
This is my son, Sam. He’s 5. And today he learned how shitty and harmful #ToxicMasculinity is. My rage meter is spiking right now so excuse me if this is a little raw but there are some things I want to say about BS #gender norms (a thread)


Sam is my middle child & he’s a terror. A “boy’s boy” as so many (not me) would say. He’s rough and tumble, he’s loud, he’s always dirty, loves trucks, plays sports and knee drops me from the couch. But he also loves a lot of “girl” things.

Sam has a collection of purses because he likes to carry things around. And he also loves to have his nails painted bright colors because he thinks they “look beautiful.” And he’s right – they are beautiful…


So he proudly wore his red nail polish to kindergarten this morning because Sam has absolutely no concept of nail polish only being for girls or reason to think anyone would possibly have a problem with beautiful nails.


But his classmates did have a problem. A big one. Sam was ridiculed for being a boy with nail polish. They called him names and told him to take it off. This lasted the entire day.
ALL
Ramsay Rippers \U0001f354
Ramsay Rippers 🍔...
@RamsayRippers
🧵EMA + VWAP STRATEGY

Every trader has a go-to strategy that works best for them. My trading is all about keeping it simple stupid and revolves around two indicators - Exponential moving averages and vwap.

Here's the strategy that I utilize on nearly 80% of my trades.

👇

What are Exponential Moving Averages?

EMA's are a type of moving average that places a greater weight on more recent data points.

8EMA = Exponential Moving Averages of the last 8 candle closing prices.

EMA's adjust with respect to chart time frame.

What is VWAP?

Volume Weighted Average Price - A key intraday indicator in my trading that offers the true average price based on price & volume.

Calculation: (Price x # of shares traded) / total shares traded

EMA's I use

- 8
- 21
- 50

While I do utilize the 50EMA, the 8 & 21 EMA are most important for this strategy. Some people use the 9 and 20 which are essentially the same thing. REMEMBER: EMA'S adjust with respect to time frames.

A+ Set Up Criteria - (What I look for)
STRATEGY
Cole Escola
Cole Escola
@ColeEscola
If you know me, you know I don't like broadcasting details about my personal life on this website, but I have been getting asked why I'm not doing Christmas this year so I just wanna put this whole mess to bed. First of all, I don't agree with gay marriage... (1 of 4,625)

... full of dog food and she said, "I'm pretending this is ice cream! Treat me like a baby!" and proceeded to hump her own arm and I thought, "something tells me this isn't the real Norah Jones"... (117 of 4,625)

...cost me $7,000. I had to put it on two separate credit cards! It wasn't 'til I got to my car that I realized "that's way too expensive for one onion." But I didn't have time. Amanda Seyfried was begging to change my diaper... (1,001 of 4,625)

...another Christmas miracle. Mistletoe, stockings, sleigh bells, snow! All these things I have put up my ass. The taste of coffee... (2,974 of 4,625)

...I felt a *very* cold finger on my cheek and I turned around and I said, "Grandma?" and she goes, "Surprise, I'm alive and I work at Sears!" I said, "okay"... (3,047 of 4,625)
SOCIETY