1/ Thoughts on the Myth of the "First Mover"

This thread by @danrose stirred something I've been thinking about for a while - the myth of first mover advantage

To this day, most people assume Amazon Web Services was the first cloud computing service. This isn't quite true

The Great Reset is a massively funded, desperately ambitious, internationally coordinated project led by some of the biggest multinational corporations and financial institutions on the planet.

Devised and put in motion by 0.0001% of people, who honestly believe this world and society need somekind of reset. You might also be wondering what are we resetting from/to as this new firmware is desperately trying to upload itself by another tsunami of mainstreamed propaganda.

One of the most obvious reasons for pushed reset is the infinite expansion economic model reaching its limits and going bust, a fact admitted even by themselves.

However, the super wealthy apparently want to continue staying super wealthy and have no intention of abandoning their position at the top of the world.

Nature’s resources found on Earth are definitely limited in their absolute quantity thus excluding an idea of infinite extraction and wealth accumulation. But this is not their understanding of limited resources, you see.

1/

Get a cup of coffee.

In this thread, we'll cover *State Quantities* and *Flow Quantities*.

This mental model can help us analyze many different entities -- from complex engineering systems to publicly traded companies.

2/

A "State Quantity" is something that's associated with a *specific point in time*.

For example, the number of followers a Twitter account has is a state quantity. This number can go up and down over time. But at any one *specific* time point, it's fixed.

3/

Similarly, the amount of cash a company has is a state quantity.

This cash balance can also rise and fall over time.

But pick any one *specific* time point -- and the company can only have one *specific* cash balance at that time point.

4/

By contrast, a "Flow Quantity" is something that's associated with a time *interval* rather than a time *point*.

For example, the number of followers gained by a Twitter account is a flow quantity. It's meaningful only when we specify a time interval (eg, the last 30 days).

5/

A simple analogy is that a State Quantity is like a photo -- a snapshot at a particular *point* in time.

But a Flow Quantity is like a video -- a record of events that take place during a particular time *interval*.

Introducing “Financial Service Centers.” The future of the new Financial Service Industry.

There is a need that the banking system has provided for all of society that cannot be eliminated within the new Quantum Financial System./1

The financial system is the glue that holds society together as we go about our commerce one with another. It is essential./2

As long as money is used to exchange goods and services, it is a service that must continue in some form, hopefully, better. Positioning ourselves to perform this service is essential./3

As the Zim Benefactors begin their humanitarian activities, a new Financial Service Industry will need to be created out of the demise of the banks. It is a major facet of society that few Zim Benefactors have given any thought to./4

The Financial Services Industry is just as important as putting food on the table and a roof over the heads of humanity if society is to be successful. Again, it is the glue or mortar, that keeps the bricks of society together./5

1/16
Was reading upon #Biases & learnt a lot. Thought of sharing a few pointers .
Simply put Bias is a disproportionate weight in favour of or against any idea/thing in all aspects of life.
Few types of Biases ( out of the many) with not so random images. :)
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2/16
The #DunningKruger effect now is fairly well known , wherein people with limited knowledge overestimate their competence, whilst the actually knowledgeable question themselves often .
"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge".
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3/16
*#SelfServingBias*
A very interesting bias wherein we credit our successes to purely ourselves, but when things go awry we cite luck & external forces .
Rings any bells?
Basically a defence mechanism to protect our self esteem & eventually from personal responsibility.

4/16
* #ConfirmationBias *
We all favour ideas & beliefs that affirm to our existing ones' , rarely being open to contradictory opinions .
(Especially in markets !! 😬) Why?

Laziness? Mental block? Ego ?
No wonder, Birds of a feather flock together ... 😉

5/16
* #SunkCostBias *
As we know, sunk costs are irrecoverable , regardless of outcomes. (Eg Money expended towards R&D for a molecule which doesn't work out)
But this actually extends in any investment we make - Time,Money, Effort, Relationships ...😏
Interesting right?

This is value investor, Allan Mecham.

He dropped out of college at age 22 to start his fund, Arlington Value.

From 2008-2016, they did a CAGR of 30% over 8.5 years!

And in his fund letters, he shared his best frameworks for investing in companies.

Here's a breakdown of each:

1. Adopt a mindset for longevity

He focuses on variables that affect a business' durability.

Stuff like valuation doesn't matter if the business quality is misjudged.

Since a company's value is determined by its future cash flows...

Hence evaluating its future is key

2. Stay within your circle of competence

Allan is aware that his CoC is tiny!

Thus, he rarely buys companies that he:

• Hasn't researched
• Hasn't followed for at least a few years.

Because the best way to study a business is to observe its execution overtime.

3. Embrace volatility as a gift

Public markets offer you amazing deals you will never get in the private markets!

It's all about being patient.

The underlying value of a business is much more stable than the stock.

So you can buy great businesses that are mispriced!

4. Avoid noise and news

More information can give you a false sense of confidence.

It can create an illusion of "knowledge", and make you think many things are important.

The key is to know what are the 3-5 main variables in the company, and focus on those.

Ignore the rest.