BTC has likely created more millionaires (10,000+?) and deca millionaires (1,000+?) than any company or startup in history. these are individual “retail” investors realizing these returns, not institutions, which may drive the Rise of Retail...

1/x Since I promised a few investors outside Sweden/Nordics to look deeper into $CDON, with my negative customer biases aside, here's a short thread;

Let's first go through the negatives

2/x I really understand the excitement when you put on the "local dominant marketplace"-glasses and start comparing CDON multiples to the likes of $AMZN, $MELI, $SE or whatever. But with boots on the ground I can assure you, that they are *nothing* of the sort. At least yet.

3/x Just looking at GMV/revenue, after >20y in business, an "everything store", CDON doesn't even come near other local niche players like $BHG (8bSEK) or $BOOZT (4bSEK) and other private companies. They are closer to $LYKO in size, who are only selling hair & beauty..

4/x Unfortunately the brand is very much on decline (especially among young ppl) since the website has been mistreated for years and years, so I think they have to work extremely hard on building trust + enhance customer experience to even have a change long term.

5/x Like I wrote yesterday we have a very divided (in a good way) eCommerce market in the Nordics, with lots of amazing niche players with top notch customer experience. To put it in words you understand, we are a more $SHOP like region with independent businesses.

(Thread) Why do I own individual stocks?

Thesis:

1. The digitalization of our world is 10% complete.
2. This megatrend will continue for at least another decade.
3. If you enjoy spending your free time on individual stocks, then the potential for outsized returns is possible.

What is my approach?

There are two parts to my portfolio.

- 40% in Vanguard All-World ETF. This is on autopilot w/ regular contributions.
- 60% in what I consider to be high growth stocks

I keep a balance by adding cash. No shuffling around unless it gets too out of whack.

The latter is the interesting part.

I invest in companies that can

1. successfully disrupt an industry with new business models $TTD $SQ $PTON $TDOC

2. further enable the digital transformation with their services and infrastructure $ZS $HUBS $TWLO $CRWD

I intend to hold my shares indefinitely and allow my investments to compound over time.

I don’t believe that it is possible to time the market. Markets go up and down. I hold on knowing that quality businesses tend to bounce back.

The list of reasons to sell is always long.

If you have full conviction in your holdings, then no single piece of “infotainment” should make you change your mind.

Ignore it + people who make predictions about the economy.

The British Railway Mania

How a disruptive technology created the biggest speculative bubble in the history of England

/THREAD/

1/ Railways were the most disruptive technology of the 19th century, known as the "railway age", transforming England from an agricultural to an industrialized nation.

2/ The development of railway infrastructure and locomotives started at the end of the 18th century but experienced immense growth after 1830.

3/ Hundreds of railway related bills were passed every year with proposed rails totaling 10,000 miles, a third of which was never built due to poor financial planning, competition, or fraud.

4/ In the mid-1840s, the Bank of England cut interest rates rendering government bonds unattractive, and investors more willing to rush in the railway investments.

A potential problem is looming, and the media are pursuing a new story that builds on the following chain of reasoning: 1) higher inflation is coming;2) if CBs increase interest rates debts will explode and recession may ensue; 3) CBs are caught in an impossible dilemma 1/12

It´s perhaps too complex for some tweets, but.. Registered inflation this year is bound to be higher than present forecasts, resulting from one-off price spikes and base effects That will not start a sustained high inflation process, but temporary higher inflation is possible 2/

For example, Euro Area inflation increased suddenly from several months at -0.3% to +0.9% in Jan. This jump resulted mostly from several base effects, especially the change to German VAT. Inflation expectations increasing but higher in the US than in the EA 3/

The major one-off base effect will come from oil prices that decreased abysmally in March 2020 and have recovered. Some estimates put US inflation in April reaching 4%! After vaccinations, later in the year, pent-up consumer demand will also increase prices.4/

Despite the increased spending of accumulated savings, the savings rate will remain higher than before Covid for precautionary reasons (Fig 1). No permanent spending spree will materialise. Wages will remain subdued for a while (Fig2). Higher but not high inflation is coming.5/

My investing style: Buy and hold high-quality businesses

Here are 15 traits that tell me I've found a great business ⬇️

1/ Recurring Revenue

Types:

Business Services $MCO
Contracts $AMT
Consumables $MNST
Exchange $MKTX
Franchise $WINA
Membership $TDOC
Platform $ETSY
Razor/blade $DXCM
Real Estate $STOR
SaaS, PaaS, IaaS $TWLO, $NOW, $FSLY
Subscription $NFLX
Tollbooth $BIP

2/ Recession-Proof Demand

Great companies sell products/services that are in-demand in good times and bad

That allows them to grow regardless of what is happening in the broader economy

3/ Organic Growth

"Organic" growth: Growing by increasing sales of internally developed products/services

"Inorganic" growth: Growing from mergers & acquisitions

Organic Growth > Inorganic Growth

4/ High & Expanding Gross Margin

Indicates that the company’s products/services create a huge amount of value for the customer

Rising gross margin also indicates pricing power